Quinnipiac
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.1#154
Expected Predictive Rating+7.1#83
Pace77.3#33
Improvement+3.7#13

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#185
First Shot+0.3#172
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#238
Layup/Dunks-0.4#193
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#99
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#140
Freethrows-2.2#301
Improvement+3.7#5

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#141
First Shot+2.9#83
After Offensive Rebounds-2.1#303
Layups/Dunks-1.5#230
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#104
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#133
Freethrows+1.6#94
Improvement+0.0#194
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.0% 24.6% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.3
.500 or above 97.4% 98.0% 91.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 98.4% 92.6%
Conference Champion 38.8% 40.6% 21.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.7%
First Round23.8% 24.4% 18.1%
Second Round1.2% 1.3% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rider (Home) - 90.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 33 - 34 - 6
Quad 418 - 422 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 13 @St. John's L 74-108 4%     0 - 1 -13.1 -2.5 -5.1
  Thu, Nov 6 244 Central Connecticut St. W 71-49 77%     1 - 1 +14.4 -2.7 +17.4
  Tue, Nov 11 73 Yale L 60-97 33%     1 - 2 -32.3 -16.6 -15.0
  Sun, Nov 16 326 @Maine W 70-64 73%     2 - 2 -0.3 -1.6 +1.3
  Sun, Nov 23 92 @Pittsburgh W 83-75 22%     3 - 2 +16.4 +15.8 +0.8
  Tue, Nov 25 63 @Central Florida L 91-102 14%     3 - 3 +0.8 +12.1 -10.1
  Sun, Nov 30 338 Stonehill W 76-62 90%     4 - 3 -0.1 -0.6 +0.6
  Fri, Dec 5 174 @Iona W 89-68 43%     5 - 3 1 - 0 +22.8 +12.8 +9.2
  Sun, Dec 7 335 Rider W 81-67 90%    
  Sat, Dec 13 314 Umass Lowell W 85-73 86%    
  Wed, Dec 17 205 @Monmouth L 75-76 50%    
  Sun, Dec 21 136 @Hofstra L 71-76 33%    
  Mon, Dec 29 159 Marist W 69-66 62%    
  Fri, Jan 2 310 @Manhattan W 82-77 69%    
  Sun, Jan 4 307 Mount St. Mary's W 81-70 85%    
  Sun, Jan 11 255 @Sacred Heart W 84-82 59%    
  Wed, Jan 14 329 St. Peter's W 79-66 88%    
  Sat, Jan 17 277 @Merrimack W 74-71 63%    
  Mon, Jan 19 310 Manhattan W 85-74 84%    
  Thu, Jan 22 307 @Mount St. Mary's W 78-73 69%    
  Sat, Jan 24 159 @Marist L 66-69 40%    
  Fri, Jan 30 255 Sacred Heart W 87-79 78%    
  Sun, Feb 1 294 @Fairfield W 79-74 66%    
  Thu, Feb 5 353 Canisius W 79-63 93%    
  Sat, Feb 7 347 Niagara W 79-64 90%    
  Fri, Feb 13 161 @Siena L 71-74 41%    
  Sun, Feb 15 277 Merrimack W 77-68 80%    
  Sun, Feb 22 294 Fairfield W 82-71 83%    
  Fri, Feb 27 347 @Niagara W 76-67 78%    
  Sun, Mar 1 353 @Canisius W 76-66 82%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 15 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 3.9 8.2 10.8 9.2 4.5 1.1 38.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.3 5.2 8.2 7.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 24.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.1 5.3 3.4 0.9 0.1 15.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.8 3.0 3.7 2.1 0.3 9.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.3 0.8 0.1 5.3 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.7 7th
8th 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.3 4.2 6.9 10.0 13.7 15.8 16.0 13.6 9.6 4.5 1.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 1.1    1.1
19-1 99.1% 4.5    4.3 0.2
18-2 95.8% 9.2    8.1 1.2
17-3 79.5% 10.8    7.7 2.9 0.2 0.0
16-4 50.9% 8.2    4.0 3.2 0.8 0.1
15-5 24.7% 3.9    1.2 1.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.7% 1.1    0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 38.8% 38.8 26.6 9.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 1.1% 49.5% 49.5% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
19-1 4.5% 44.8% 44.8% 12.8 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.5
18-2 9.6% 37.8% 37.8% 13.2 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.2 0.1 6.0
17-3 13.6% 32.9% 32.9% 13.7 0.2 1.7 2.0 0.6 0.0 9.1
16-4 16.0% 29.6% 29.6% 14.0 0.1 1.2 2.2 1.2 0.0 11.3
15-5 15.8% 21.7% 21.7% 14.3 0.0 0.5 1.6 1.2 0.1 12.4
14-6 13.7% 18.4% 18.4% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.2 11.2
13-7 10.0% 14.3% 14.3% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 8.6
12-8 6.9% 10.9% 10.9% 15.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 6.2
11-9 4.2% 6.3% 6.3% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.9
10-10 2.3% 4.9% 4.9% 15.8 0.0 0.1 2.1
9-11 1.3% 3.8% 3.8% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.3
8-12 0.5% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
7-13 0.2% 0.2
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.0% 24.0% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.5 8.6 5.8 1.2 76.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.1 5.5 12.7 50.9 29.1 1.8