Quinnipiac
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.2 #175
Expected Predictive Rating +1.4 #139
Pace 75.4 #39
Improvement -1.2 #248

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #224 C- C+ C C- D+
Defense #141 C- C- C C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #169 1.13 #205 -0.4 #194
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #75 0.65 #320 +0.6 #147
Three Pointers 35% #301 1.06 #124 -2.2 #264
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #233 -2.0 #235
Freethrows 16.4 #238 71% #246 11.6 #236
Second Chance 31.3% #161 1.12 #83 0.35 #110
Turnovers 16.4% #167
Total Offense -1.9 #224

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #87 1.18 #211 -2.5 #266
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #209 0.58 #9 +2.1 #39
Three Pointers 39% #250 1.13 #323 -1.0 #226
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #226 -1.5 #227
Freethrows 16.0 #120 73% #188 11.7 #123
Second Chance 34.2% #314 1.02 #148 0.35 #254
Turnovers 17.0% #149
Total Defense +0.8 #141

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #277 0.8% #246
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.4% #216 2.0% #217
Possession Length 16.3 #84 17.6 #228
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.23 #45 0.18 #222
Improvement +0.2 #165 -1.4 #272

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.5% 22.2% 16.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 100.0% 99.6%
Conference Champion 28.3% 46.2% 18.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round18.5% 22.2% 16.6%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marist (Away) - 34.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 33 - 44 - 7
Quad 417 - 421 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 18 @St. John's L 74 - 108 3% -21  0 - 1 -14 -1 C D F -7 F D A-
 Thu, Nov 6 277 Central Connecticut St. W 71 - 49 79% +12  1 - 1 +12 -7 D F A+ +20 A+ C- D+
 Tue, Nov 11 83 Yale L 60 - 97 30% -18  1 - 2 -33 -16 F C F -16 F F A
 Sun, Nov 16 341 @Maine W 70 - 64 76% -2  2 - 2 -3 -1 F B C- -1 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 23 91 @Pittsburgh W 83 - 75 17% +5  3 - 2 +17 +15 A+ A- F +2 D D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 53 @Central Florida L 91 - 102 9% -2  3 - 3 +3 +14 A+ F A- -11 D+ B- D-
 Sun, Nov 30 339 Stonehill W 76 - 62 89% +8  4 - 3 -0 +1 A+ F F -1 B+ F C+
 Fri, Dec 5 227 @Iona W 89 - 68 49% +7  5 - 3 1 - 0 +20 +14 B A+ C- +6 A+ F C
 Sun, Dec 7 354 Rider W 72 - 58 91% +15  6 - 3 2 - 0 -2 -6 F A- C+ +4 C C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 309 Umass Lowell W 75 - 71 83% -1  7 - 3 -7 -9 F B+ C +1 F A+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 202 @Monmouth W 85 - 75 44% +15  8 - 3 +10 +12 B+ B+ A- -2 D A+ B-
 Sun, Dec 21 126 @Hofstra L 66 - 74 27% -2  8 - 4 -3 -3 F A- A- -0 A+ F B
 Mon, Dec 29 160 Marist W 64 - 58 57% +3  9 - 4 3 - 0 +3 -3 F A+ F +6 A+ D A+
 Fri, Jan 2 327 @Manhattan L 79 - 80 72% +8  9 - 5 3 - 1 -8 -2 F A+ F -6 F A C
 Sun, Jan 4 288 Mount St. Mary's W 80 - 69 81% +9  10 - 5 4 - 1 +1 +4 A- D+ F -3 A- F C-
 Sun, Jan 11 270 @Sacred Heart W 70 - 60 57% +0  11 - 5 5 - 1 +7 -1 D- F A +9 B- C A-
 Wed, Jan 14 220 St. Peter's L 70 - 74 70% -4  11 - 6 5 - 2 -11 -4 C- C A+ -7 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 17 208 @Merrimack L 71 - 83 45% -12  11 - 7 5 - 3 -12 +3 F C A+ -15 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 327 Manhattan W 98 - 92 OT 87% -1  12 - 7 6 - 3 -7 +4 D+ A+ C -12 D F D+
 Thu, Jan 22 288 @Mount St. Mary's W 77 - 62 62% +12  13 - 7 7 - 3 +11 +5 B+ F C +6 F A+ B-
 Sat, Jan 24 160 @Marist L 67 - 71 35%
 Fri, Jan 30 270 Sacred Heart W 84 - 76 77%
 Sun, Feb 1 274 @Fairfield W 79 - 77 58%
 Thu, Feb 5 344 Canisius W 77 - 63 90%
 Sat, Feb 7 352 Niagara W 77 - 62 92%
 Fri, Feb 13 169 @Siena L 71 - 74 38%
 Sun, Feb 15 208 Merrimack W 73 - 68 67%
 Sun, Feb 22 274 Fairfield W 82 - 74 77%
 Fri, Feb 27 352 @Niagara W 74 - 65 79%
 Sun, Mar 1 344 @Canisius W 74 - 66 76%
Totals 20 - 10 14 - 6 -1 -2 C- C+ C +1 C- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.6 12.2 9.9 2.5 28.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.7 12.1 8.6 1.4 0.0 24.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 8.7 8.6 1.0 0.0 19.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.5 7.8 1.3 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 4.7 1.7 0.1 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.9 0.0 3.3 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.7 11.3 21.2 25.7 21.8 11.3 2.5 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 98.6% 2.5    2.2 0.2
16-4 87.4% 9.9    6.7 2.9 0.2
15-5 55.9% 12.2    3.7 5.6 2.5 0.3 0.0
14-6 14.0% 3.6    0.3 1.1 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 28.3% 28.3 13.0 9.8 4.2 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 2.5% 30.4% 30.4% 12.8 0.2 0.4 0.1 1.7
16-4 11.3% 28.7% 28.7% 13.7 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.4 8.1
15-5 21.8% 23.3% 23.3% 14.1 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.4 0.0 16.7
14-6 25.7% 19.1% 19.1% 14.4 0.3 2.3 2.2 0.1 20.8
13-7 21.2% 14.5% 14.5% 14.8 0.1 0.8 2.0 0.2 18.1
12-8 11.3% 10.0% 10.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 10.1
11-9 4.7% 6.6% 6.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.4
10-10 1.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.3
9-11 0.3% 0.3
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.5% 18.5% 0.0% 14.3 81.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.8% 100.0% 12.8 31.1 58.9 9.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%