Sacred Heart
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.1 #270
Expected Predictive Rating -8.2 #299
Pace 71.2 #113
Improvement +2.1 #90

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #183 C- D+ F C- C
Defense #326 F C D- B F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #346 1.12 #215 -5.4 #340
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #277 0.61 #345 -3.0 #319
Three Pointers 54% #10 1.03 #164 +6.9 #18
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #220 -1.4 #221
Freethrows 15.5 #276 78% #31 12.1 #209
Second Chance 28.7% #238 1.00 #246 0.29 #243
Turnovers 19.5% #339
Total Offense -0.7 #183

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #158 1.32 #342 -3.9 #309
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #355 0.75 #171 +2.6 #17
Three Pointers 47% #41 1.12 #312 -5.5 #349
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #348 -6.7 #350
Freethrows 15.0 #68 74% #266 11.1 #58
Second Chance 32.7% #271 1.02 #150 0.33 #219
Turnovers 14.1% #316
Total Defense -5.4 #326

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #195 2.0% #340
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.6% #217 10.9% #347
Possession Length 17.1 #147 17.0 #123
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #152 0.23 #336
Improvement +1.6 #96 +0.5 #157

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.8% 3.0% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 5.9% 6.9% 1.6%
.500 or above in Conference 39.7% 44.7% 17.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.1% 2.5%
First Four1.9% 1.9% 1.6%
First Round2.0% 2.2% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Home) - 82.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 411 - 1013 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 118 @Duquesne L 80 - 92 14% -7  0 - 1 -6 +5 D- D+ B -11 A+ F F
 Tue, Nov 11 33 @Villanova L 60 - 94 3% -21  0 - 2 -17 -1 C+ B- F -18 F D- A+
 Sat, Nov 15 177 @Queens L 64 - 81 23% -13  0 - 3 -15 -12 F F F -3 F C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 320 Holy Cross W 79 - 66 74% +9  1 - 3 +0 +4 B F C- -3 F C A+
 Mon, Nov 24 277 @Central Connecticut St. L 106 - 108 OT 40% -2  1 - 4 -6 +15 A- C D -20 F F D+
 Sat, Nov 29 116 @Penn St. L 59 - 90 13% -21  1 - 5 -25 -19 F F F -3 F F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 288 @Mount St. Mary's W 87 - 80 43% +3  2 - 5 1 - 0 +3 +18 F A+ D- -15 F F F
 Sun, Dec 7 227 Iona L 69 - 81 53% -4  2 - 6 1 - 1 -19 -6 B+ F F -12 D+ F F
 Sat, Dec 13 336 @NJIT W 65 - 49 58% +4  3 - 6 +8 -3 F C+ F +12 A+ A C-
 Tue, Dec 16 309 @Umass Lowell L 82 - 87 48% +0  3 - 7 -10 +3 A- F F -13 F C F
 Fri, Dec 19 221 Dartmouth W 85 - 63 52% +8  4 - 7 +15 +4 F A+ D+ +10 A+ D+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 157 @Towson L 47 - 72 19% -9  4 - 8 -22 -18 F D+ F -6 F A+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 208 Merrimack L 72 - 80 50% -8  4 - 9 1 - 2 -14 +2 B- D- D -16 F C- D
 Fri, Jan 2 352 @Niagara L 61 - 64 64% -9  4 - 10 1 - 3 -13 -3 F C- F -10 F A- D-
 Sun, Jan 4 344 @Canisius L 78 - 82 60% +4  4 - 11 1 - 4 -13 +5 C+ C- F -18 F F D
 Fri, Jan 9 160 Marist L 72 - 76 38% +2  4 - 12 1 - 5 -7 +11 A+ B+ F -18 F F F
 Sun, Jan 11 175 Quinnipiac L 60 - 70 43% -0  4 - 13 1 - 6 -14 -9 F D- F -6 D A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 169 @Siena W 86 - 80 22% +4  5 - 13 2 - 6 +8 +18 F A+ A+ -9 C D+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 354 @Rider W 105 - 85 65% +12  6 - 13 3 - 6 +10 +19 A+ F C+ -11 F A F
 Thu, Jan 22 344 Canisius W 69 - 66 80% -2  7 - 13 4 - 6 -12 -8 C F F -4 F A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 24 352 Niagara W 76 - 66 82%
 Fri, Jan 30 175 @Quinnipiac L 76 - 84 23%
 Sun, Feb 1 208 @Merrimack L 70 - 76 29%
 Thu, Feb 5 274 Fairfield W 81 - 78 62%
 Sat, Feb 7 327 @Manhattan W 82 - 81 55%
 Fri, Feb 13 220 St. Peter's W 73 - 72 51%
 Sun, Feb 15 354 Rider W 78 - 68 82%
 Fri, Feb 20 274 @Fairfield L 78 - 81 39%
 Sun, Feb 22 160 @Marist L 66 - 75 20%
 Fri, Feb 27 288 Mount St. Mary's W 78 - 74 65%
Totals 12 - 18 9 - 11 -6 -1 C- D+ F -5 F C D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.4 2.2 4th
5th 0.5 2.8 2.1 0.1 5.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 5.1 5.8 1.1 0.0 12.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 8.4 11.2 3.7 0.1 24.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 6.7 12.4 3.7 0.2 23.5 8th
9th 0.2 3.7 9.0 3.3 0.2 16.3 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 5.1 2.7 0.2 9.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.3 0.1 3.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.1 0.9 4.2 10.8 19.4 24.9 20.6 12.8 5.0 1.2 0.1 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 22.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.1% 7.4% 7.4% 14.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 1.2% 8.6% 8.6% 15.3 0.1 0.0 1.1
12-8 5.0% 7.7% 7.7% 15.6 0.2 0.2 4.6
11-9 12.8% 5.0% 5.0% 15.8 0.1 0.5 12.1
10-10 20.6% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.7 19.9
9-11 24.9% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.5 24.3
8-12 19.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 19.2
7-13 10.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.7
6-14 4.2% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 4.1
5-15 0.9% 0.9
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 15.9 97.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%