IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Iona
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	-3.8	#227
Expected Predictive Rating	-1.0	#181

Pace	74.4	#49
Improvement	-6.8	#363

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#269	C	D-	C-	F	C
Defense	#183	C	D+	C-	A-	D+

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	36%	#250	1.10	#250	-2.4	#270
2 Pt. Jumpers	18%	#234	0.75	#179	-1.0	#227
Three Pointers	46%	#73	1.05	#132	+3.5	#71
1st FG Attempt			1.02	#176	+0.1	#172
Freethrows	14.3	#323	68%	#319	9.7	#328
Second Chance	23.1%	#344	1.08	#126	0.25	#315
Turnovers					17.0%	#219
Total Offense					-3.4	#269

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	43%	#77	1.19	#228	-3.0	#279
2 Pt. Jumpers	19%	#221	0.63	#22	+1.2	#98
Three Pointers	39%	#251	0.98	#128	+2.0	#117
1st FG Attempt			1.00	#156	+0.2	#175
Freethrows	14.8	#62	68%	#24	10.0	#34
Second Chance	33.7%	#303	1.05	#198	0.36	#266
Turnovers					15.6%	#233
Total Defense					-0.4	#183

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	0.4%	#165	1.0%	#257
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-0.5%	#184	-2.5%	#139
Possession Length	17.1	#144	16.6	#63
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.17	#182	0.21	#288
Improvement	-5.4	#363	-1.5	#274

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	7.6%	8.1%	5.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	15.0	14.9	15.4

.500 or above	99.1%	99.6%	96.6%
.500 or above in Conference	87.8%	91.9%	69.8%
Conference Champion	1.8%	2.1%	0.3%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%

First Four	0.4%	0.3%	0.7%
First Round	7.4%	7.9%	5.3%
Second Round	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Manhattan (Home) - 81.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 1b	0 - 0	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 1	0 - 2
Quad 3	4 - 4	4 - 6
Quad 4	16 - 6	20 - 13

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Fri, Nov 7	126 Hofstra	W	81 - 73	38%	+14	1 - 0		+7	+1	B-	D+	F	+6	C	A-	A
Tue, Nov 11	353 @UMKC	W	105 - 91	73%	+9	2 - 0		+4	+8	A+	F	F	-7	D-	F	B-
Fri, Nov 14	193 Fordham	W	76 - 71	55%	-0	3 - 0		-0	+3	A+	F	A+	-3	A+	F	D
Tue, Nov 18	214 Princeton	W	89 - 69	60%	+18	4 - 0		+14	+5	A	C	D+	+6	A+	A+	C-
Fri, Nov 21	64 Akron	L	75 - 96	13%	-18	4 - 1		-12	-4	D-	C	F	-6	D	C	C
Sat, Nov 22	195 Oregon St.	W	91 - 84 2OT	44%	-5	5 - 1		+5	+0	C	D-	C-	+3	C	A+	C
Mon, Nov 24	255 Green Bay	L	75 - 80	55%	+0	5 - 2		-10	-1	D	C	C+	-9	A+	F	F
Mon, Dec 1	295 @Delaware	W	89 - 66	53%	+7	6 - 2		+18	+15	A+	F	C-	+4	C	C-	C
Fri, Dec 5	175 Quinnipiac	L	68 - 89	51%	-7	6 - 3	0 - 1	-25	-8	F	C+	C	-16	D-	F	C
Sun, Dec 7	270 @Sacred Heart	W	81 - 69	47%	+4	7 - 3	1 - 1	+9	+4	D	C	C	+5	F	B	A+
Wed, Dec 10	343 Bryant	W	69 - 63	84%	+5	8 - 3		-9	-5	D-	D-	B-	-3	F	B-	A+
Sat, Dec 13	18 @St. John's	L	64 - 91	2%	-8	8 - 4		-7	-4	F	D+	A+	-1	F	B-	A+
Sat, Dec 20	204 @Vermont	W	83 - 78	35%	+0	9 - 4		+5	+11	C	A+	A	-6	B-	C-	F
Mon, Dec 29	288 @Mount St. Mary's	L	59 - 66	52%	+2	9 - 5	1 - 2	-11	-17	F	C-	F	+6	C+	A-	C+
Fri, Jan 2	169 Siena	W	75 - 72	51%	+4	10 - 5	2 - 2	-1	-1	A+	F	F	+0	B	A-	F
Sun, Jan 4	160 @Marist	L	38 - 83	26%	-21	10 - 6	2 - 3	-42	-28	F	F	F	-14	C	F	F
Fri, Jan 9	352 Niagara	W	71 - 53	87%	+16	11 - 6	3 - 3	+2	+2	C-	D	C+	+3	A-	B-	F
Sun, Jan 11	344 Canisius	W	74 - 48	85%	+8	12 - 6	4 - 3	+11	+7	A+	B-	F	+8	A+	F	F
Wed, Jan 14	354 @Rider	L	68 - 72	73%	-7	12 - 7	4 - 4	-14	+3	C	F	A+	-17	F	F	D+
Mon, Jan 19	220 @St. Peter's	L	63 - 77	37%	-3	12 - 8	4 - 5	-15	-6	F	F	A+	-9	F	A-	B-
Thu, Jan 22	208 Merrimack	W	61 - 60	58%	+1	13 - 8	5 - 5	-5	-4	D	F	C+	-1	C	F	A+
Sat, Jan 24	327 Manhattan	W	84 - 74	81%
Fri, Jan 30	274 Fairfield	W	80 - 75	70%
Thu, Feb 5	169 @Siena	L	69 - 75	29%
Sat, Feb 7	288 Mount St. Mary's	W	76 - 70	73%
Fri, Feb 13	344 @Canisius	W	72 - 67	68%
Sun, Feb 15	352 @Niagara	W	72 - 66	71%
Fri, Feb 20	220 St. Peter's	W	72 - 69	60%
Sun, Feb 22	208 @Merrimack	L	68 - 72	36%
Fri, Feb 27	354 Rider	W	77 - 65	87%
Sun, Mar 1	327 @Manhattan	W	81 - 77	63%
Totals						19 - 12	11 - 9	-4	-3	C	D-	C-	+0	C	D+	C-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

	0-20	1-19	2-18	3-17	4-16	5-15	6-14	7-13	8-12	9-11	10-10	11-9	12-8	13-7	14-6	15-5	16-4	17-3	18-2	19-1	20-0	Total
1st														0.1	0.9	0.8						1.8	1st
2nd													0.1	1.3	3.0	0.5						4.9	2nd
3rd												0.0	1.1	5.4	2.4	0.1						9.0	3rd
4th											0.0	0.8	6.2	6.9	0.6							14.5	4th
5th										0.0	0.7	6.4	10.8	2.9	0.0							20.9	5th
6th									0.0	0.7	7.7	12.9	5.7	0.2								27.3	6th
7th									0.2	3.3	6.2	2.5	0.1									12.3	7th
8th								0.0	1.0	3.2	1.3	0.1										5.7	8th
9th							0.0	0.3	1.3	0.9	0.1											2.5	9th
10th							0.1	0.5	0.5	0.1												1.1	10th
11th						0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0													0.2	11th
12th						0.0	0.0	0.0														0.0	12th
13th																							13th

Total						0.0	0.1	0.9	3.1	8.1	16.0	22.7	23.9	16.9	6.9	1.4							Total

Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5	58.9%	0.8	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.0
14-6	12.5%	0.9	0.0	0.2	0.4	0.2	0.1	0.0
13-7	0.6%	0.1		0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
12-8	0.0%
11-9	0.0%
10-10	0.0%

Total	1.8%	1.8	0.2	0.6	0.6	0.3	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5	1.4%	21.5%	21.5%		13.7												0.0	0.1	0.2	0.0		1.1
14-6	6.9%	16.9%	16.9%		14.3													0.1	0.7	0.4	0.0	5.7
13-7	16.9%	12.2%	12.2%		14.8													0.0	0.6	1.3	0.2	14.8
12-8	23.9%	8.7%	8.7%		15.1														0.2	1.4	0.5	21.9
11-9	22.7%	5.2%	5.2%		15.4														0.0	0.6	0.5	21.5
10-10	16.0%	3.1%	3.1%		15.5														0.0	0.2	0.3	15.5
9-11	8.1%	3.0%	3.0%		15.9															0.0	0.2	7.9
8-12	3.1%	2.9%	2.9%		16.0																0.1	3.0
7-13	0.9%	1.7%	1.7%		16.0																0.0	0.9
6-14	0.1%																					0.1
5-15	0.0%																					0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20

Total	100%	7.6%	7.6%	0.0%	15.0																	92.4	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	12	13	14	15
Win Out	0.3%	100.0%	13.7	1.7	32.8	63.8	1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.4%