Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.4#179
Expected Predictive Rating+0.6#157
Pace66.1#270
Improvement-2.5#323

Offense
Total Offense-2.2#228
First Shot-2.9#251
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#128
Layup/Dunks+0.6#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#18
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.9#355
Freethrows-0.1#189
Improvement-1.9#317

Defense
Total Defense+0.8#137
First Shot+0.5#154
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#167
Layups/Dunks-3.3#301
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#34
Freethrows-0.2#187
Improvement-0.6#231
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15.4% 18.9% 13.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.5 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 97.8% 99.5% 96.9%
.500 or above in Conference 94.5% 98.2% 92.4%
Conference Champion 21.2% 34.8% 13.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round15.3% 18.8% 13.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iona (Away) - 35.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 43 - 7
Quad 419 - 522 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 311 Bryant W 82-66 84%     1 - 0 +4.2 +9.1 -4.1
  Fri, Nov 7 226 @Brown W 62-46 49%     2 - 0 +15.0 -4.1 +19.9
  Wed, Nov 12 116 @St. Bonaventure L 66-75 23%     2 - 1 -2.7 +1.9 -5.4
  Mon, Nov 17 181 Colgate L 69-72 62%     2 - 2 -7.5 -0.6 -7.1
  Fri, Nov 21 310 Albany W 73-63 83%     3 - 2 -1.6 +4.8 -4.9
  Mon, Nov 24 326 @Holy Cross W 73-69 70%     4 - 2 -2.9 +1.7 -4.2
  Fri, Nov 28 298 Longwood W 70-63 72%     5 - 2 -0.5 -4.2 +3.9
  Sat, Nov 29 268 @American W 59-55 56%     6 - 2 +1.1 -15.0 +16.1
  Sun, Nov 30 342 Maine W 64-60 83%     7 - 2 -7.5 +0.0 -6.8
  Fri, Dec 5 352 Niagara W 83-54 91%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +12.8 +9.4 +5.4
  Sun, Dec 7 347 Canisius W 74-52 90%     9 - 2 2 - 0 +6.8 +3.0 +5.8
  Wed, Dec 17 178 @Vermont L 69-83 38%     9 - 3 -12.3 -5.6 -6.7
  Mon, Dec 22 29 @Indiana L 60-81 5%     9 - 4 -3.4 -2.7 -1.1
  Fri, Jan 2 165 @Iona L 72-76 35%    
  Sun, Jan 4 344 @Rider W 68-61 76%    
  Fri, Jan 9 263 Merrimack W 69-62 75%    
  Sun, Jan 11 300 @Mount St. Mary's W 71-68 62%    
  Wed, Jan 14 250 Sacred Heart W 76-69 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 313 @Manhattan W 76-72 67%    
  Mon, Jan 19 277 Fairfield W 75-67 77%    
  Thu, Jan 22 157 Marist W 66-65 55%    
  Fri, Jan 30 352 @Niagara W 71-62 79%    
  Sun, Feb 1 347 @Canisius W 69-61 77%    
  Thu, Feb 5 165 Iona W 75-73 58%    
  Sat, Feb 7 297 @St. Peter's W 67-64 61%    
  Fri, Feb 13 160 Quinnipiac W 74-72 56%    
  Sun, Feb 15 157 @Marist L 63-68 34%    
  Fri, Feb 20 263 @Merrimack W 66-65 55%    
  Sun, Feb 22 297 St. Peter's W 70-61 79%    
  Fri, Feb 27 277 @Fairfield W 72-70 57%    
  Sun, Mar 1 344 Rider W 71-58 89%    
Projected Record 21 - 10 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 6.1 6.1 3.5 1.3 0.2 21.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 4.9 7.3 4.7 1.3 0.1 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.3 5.2 7.0 3.6 0.7 0.0 17.9 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 4.9 6.2 2.9 0.5 0.0 15.9 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.4 4.4 1.5 0.2 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.8 1.0 0.1 0.0 6.4 6th
7th 0.2 1.0 1.8 0.7 0.1 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 0.6 0.1 2.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.1 1.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 3.1 5.4 8.4 11.9 14.4 15.9 14.5 11.4 7.4 3.6 1.3 0.2 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.3    1.3 0.0
18-2 96.6% 3.5    3.1 0.4 0.0
17-3 81.6% 6.1    4.2 1.7 0.1 0.0
16-4 53.0% 6.1    2.9 2.5 0.6 0.1
15-5 21.5% 3.1    0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1
14-6 5.3% 0.8    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.2% 21.2 12.7 6.4 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 43.5% 43.5% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
19-1 1.3% 39.5% 39.5% 13.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8
18-2 3.6% 32.2% 32.2% 13.6 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 2.5
17-3 7.4% 26.4% 26.4% 14.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.4 5.5
16-4 11.4% 23.5% 23.5% 14.3 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.9 0.0 8.8
15-5 14.5% 19.4% 19.4% 14.6 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.1 11.7
14-6 15.9% 15.7% 15.7% 14.8 0.0 0.7 1.5 0.3 13.4
13-7 14.4% 11.7% 11.7% 15.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.3 12.7
12-8 11.9% 9.1% 9.1% 15.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 10.8
11-9 8.4% 6.6% 6.6% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 7.8
10-10 5.4% 3.9% 3.9% 15.8 0.1 0.2 5.2
9-11 3.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.0
8-12 1.4% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 1.4
7-13 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 15.4% 15.4% 0.0% 14.5 0.0 0.3 1.6 5.5 6.3 1.8 84.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.9 13.3 80.0 6.7