Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.9 #169
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 #193
Pace 63.5 #320
Improvement +0.2 #175

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #186 C- C C C- F
Defense #173 C C+ C C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #237 1.15 #184 -1.3 #235
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #34 0.87 #44 +5.1 #11
Three Pointers 34% #318 0.89 #324 -5.8 #336
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #232 -2.0 #234
Freethrows 15.5 #269 75% #110 11.6 #235
Second Chance 30.8% #177 1.00 #241 0.31 #196
Turnovers 16.6% #183
Total Offense -0.8 #186

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #142 1.17 #197 -1.2 #220
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #121 0.81 #267 -1.2 #277
Three Pointers 38% #272 0.97 #121 +2.5 #93
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #180 +0.0 #182
Freethrows 16.2 #130 73% #216 11.9 #142
Second Chance 30.5% #180 0.99 #114 0.30 #132
Turnovers 16.4% #189
Total Defense -0.2 #173

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #325 -0.1% #148
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #200 0.0% #185
Possession Length 19.0 #336 17.4 #197
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #344 0.12 #41
Improvement +2.3 #63 -2.1 #301

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.2% 20.3% 14.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 14.9
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.2% 99.7% 96.8%
Conference Champion 22.6% 25.7% 10.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.4%
First Round19.1% 20.2% 14.8%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Niagara (Away) - 79.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 53 - 6
Quad 418 - 522 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 343 Bryant W 82 - 66 89% +10  1 - 0 +1 +8 D- A+ A- -6 F F A+
 Fri, Nov 7 264 @Brown W 62 - 46 56% +12  2 - 0 +13 -5 F D F +19 A+ A+ A
 Wed, Nov 12 136 @St. Bonaventure L 66 - 75 30% +1  2 - 1 -4 -1 F A+ F -5 B- F A
 Mon, Nov 17 199 Colgate L 69 - 72 67% -0  2 - 2 -9 -2 D B C- -7 C- C- C
 Fri, Nov 21 305 Albany W 73 - 63 83% +8  3 - 2 -1 +6 B- C- F -6 F A+ D+
 Mon, Nov 24 320 @Holy Cross W 73 - 69 71% +1  4 - 2 -3 +3 B+ F C -5 F A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 262 Longwood W 70 - 63 67% +3  5 - 2 +1 -4 B- F D- +5 B+ D- A+
 Sat, Nov 29 224 @American W 59 - 55 49% +1  6 - 2 +3 -13 F F F +16 A+ C A+
 Sun, Nov 30 341 Maine W 64 - 60 84% +8  7 - 2 -8 +2 C F C -8 F D D-
 Fri, Dec 5 352 Niagara W 83 - 54 91% +22  8 - 2 1 - 0 +13 +9 B+ D+ B +6 A B F
 Sun, Dec 7 344 Canisius W 74 - 52 90% +14  9 - 2 2 - 0 +7 +3 C F A+ +6 A+ B- A-
 Wed, Dec 17 204 @Vermont L 69 - 83 45% -12  9 - 3 -14 -5 F D- C -9 D F F
 Mon, Dec 22 37 @Indiana L 60 - 81 6% -18  9 - 4 -5 -5 F C A+ +0 B- A+ A
 Fri, Jan 2 227 @Iona L 72 - 75 49% -4  9 - 5 2 - 1 -4 -1 D- F A- -2 F A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 354 @Rider W 74 - 65 81% +7  10 - 5 3 - 1 -1 +11 F A+ F -10 F A F
 Fri, Jan 9 208 Merrimack L 59 - 63 69% -9  10 - 6 3 - 2 -10 +2 D+ C C -13 F D+ F
 Sun, Jan 11 288 @Mount St. Mary's W 67 - 50 63% +9  11 - 6 4 - 2 +13 +4 D+ D- C +11 A+ D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 270 Sacred Heart L 80 - 86 78% -4  11 - 7 4 - 3 -15 +3 F C A+ -19 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 327 @Manhattan W 74 - 59 73% +12  12 - 7 5 - 3 +8 +4 A+ F F +6 A- B D-
 Mon, Jan 19 274 Fairfield W 85 - 77 78% +8  13 - 7 6 - 3 -1 +13 A+ D F -13 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 22 160 Marist W 69 - 50 58% +4  14 - 7 7 - 3 +16 +11 D+ A+ A+ +8 B A+ F
 Fri, Jan 30 352 @Niagara W 70 - 61 79%
 Sun, Feb 1 344 @Canisius W 70 - 62 78%
 Thu, Feb 5 227 Iona W 75 - 69 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 220 @St. Peter's L 66 - 67 48%
 Fri, Feb 13 175 Quinnipiac W 74 - 71 62%
 Sun, Feb 15 160 @Marist L 62 - 66 36%
 Fri, Feb 20 208 @Merrimack L 66 - 67 46%
 Sun, Feb 22 220 St. Peter's W 69 - 63 70%
 Fri, Feb 27 274 @Fairfield W 73 - 71 58%
 Sun, Mar 1 354 Rider W 74 - 59 92%
Totals 20 - 11 13 - 7 -1 -1 C- C C +0 C C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 3.7 10.6 6.9 1.3 22.6 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 10.9 5.7 0.5 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 8.5 7.8 0.6 18.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 5.5 8.6 1.4 0.0 16.1 4th
5th 0.3 3.4 7.2 2.3 0.1 13.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.0 1.9 0.1 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.9 8.5 16.0 22.4 23.9 16.9 7.3 1.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 1.3    1.2 0.0
16-4 93.6% 6.9    5.2 1.5 0.1
15-5 62.7% 10.6    3.6 4.8 2.0 0.2 0.0
14-6 15.4% 3.7    0.3 1.1 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.6% 22.6 10.3 7.5 3.6 1.0 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 1.3% 36.5% 36.5% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.8
16-4 7.3% 31.3% 31.3% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.0
15-5 16.9% 28.2% 28.2% 14.3 0.4 2.3 1.9 0.1 12.1
14-6 23.9% 21.0% 21.0% 14.7 0.2 1.7 2.8 0.3 18.9
13-7 22.4% 17.0% 17.0% 15.0 0.0 0.7 2.5 0.6 18.6
12-8 16.0% 11.7% 11.7% 15.2 0.1 1.2 0.6 14.1
11-9 8.5% 8.5% 8.5% 15.4 0.1 0.4 0.3 7.8
10-10 2.9% 7.4% 7.4% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 2.7
9-11 0.7% 4.8% 4.8% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.7
8-12 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 14.6 80.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 13.0 25.8 47.3 24.7 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%