Siena
Metro Atlantic Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#246
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#238
Pace65.6#251
Improvement+2.1#92

Offense
Total Offense-3.3#261
First Shot-3.6#283
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#159
Layup/Dunks-5.0#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#155
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#188
Freethrows+1.2#102
Improvement+2.6#49

Defense
Total Defense-1.8#226
First Shot-1.4#224
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#221
Layups/Dunks-4.3#325
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#77
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#62
Freethrows-1.5#282
Improvement-0.5#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.3% 7.4% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 53.3% 64.5% 32.2%
.500 or above in Conference 70.8% 81.4% 50.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four2.2% 2.2% 2.1%
First Round5.2% 6.2% 3.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: St. Peter's (Home) - 65.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 31 - 63 - 8
Quad 414 - 916 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 214   Brown W 72-71 OT 51%     1 - 0 -4.4 -6.0 +1.6
  Nov 08, 2024 144   @ Bryant W 90-88 OT 20%     2 - 0 +5.7 +4.1 +1.3
  Nov 12, 2024 233   American W 74-66 56%     3 - 0 +1.4 +10.1 -7.3
  Nov 16, 2024 280   @ Albany L 60-70 46%     3 - 1 -14.1 -11.8 -2.9
  Nov 20, 2024 44   @ Xavier L 55-80 5%     3 - 2 -10.9 -7.8 -4.3
  Nov 25, 2024 173   Miami (OH) L 58-70 33%     3 - 3 -12.4 -12.8 -0.2
  Nov 26, 2024 179   Jacksonville L 64-75 34%     3 - 4 -11.9 -5.8 -6.3
  Nov 30, 2024 251   Bucknell W 71-58 51%     4 - 4 +7.7 +6.8 +2.6
  Dec 06, 2024 316   @ Niagara L 68-69 56%     4 - 5 0 - 1 -7.6 +3.3 -11.1
  Dec 08, 2024 352   @ Canisius W 66-53 70%     5 - 5 1 - 1 +2.5 -1.9 +6.8
  Dec 17, 2024 95   St. Bonaventure L 48-65 22%     5 - 6 -14.2 -21.4 +6.4
  Dec 20, 2024 319   Holy Cross L 70-78 74%     5 - 7 -19.8 -1.9 -18.9
  Dec 30, 2024 122   @ Cornell W 83-77 18%     6 - 7 +10.8 +4.7 +5.8
  Jan 03, 2025 271   Manhattan W 103-95 2OT 64%     7 - 7 2 - 1 -0.7 +2.6 -4.9
  Jan 05, 2025 256   Iona L 73-74 61%     7 - 8 2 - 2 -9.0 -8.0 -0.9
  Jan 10, 2025 187   @ Quinnipiac L 53-72 27%     7 - 9 2 - 3 -17.8 -17.7 +0.1
  Jan 16, 2025 288   Sacred Heart W 93-75 66%     8 - 9 3 - 3 +8.6 +14.6 -6.0
  Jan 18, 2025 198   @ Merrimack L 58-64 29%     8 - 10 3 - 4 -5.2 -3.9 -2.0
  Jan 23, 2025 260   Mount St. Mary's W 82-68 62%     9 - 10 4 - 4 +5.9 +14.0 -6.8
  Jan 25, 2025 256   @ Iona L 68-72 42%     9 - 11 4 - 5 -7.0 -1.8 -5.3
  Jan 31, 2025 211   @ Marist L 67-72 32%     9 - 12 4 - 6 -5.2 +4.2 -9.9
  Feb 02, 2025 187   Quinnipiac W 84-75 45%     10 - 12 5 - 6 +5.2 +1.7 +2.4
  Feb 06, 2025 272   St. Peter's W 64-60 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 303   @ Rider W 68-67 50%    
  Feb 14, 2025 211   Marist W 64-63 52%    
  Feb 16, 2025 288   @ Sacred Heart L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 21, 2025 316   Niagara W 70-64 75%    
  Feb 23, 2025 352   Canisius W 76-66 85%    
  Mar 02, 2025 260   @ Mount St. Mary's L 68-70 41%    
  Mar 06, 2025 326   Fairfield W 74-66 78%    
  Mar 08, 2025 271   @ Manhattan L 72-73 43%    
Projected Record 15 - 16 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Metro Atlantic Athletic Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.3 0.3 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.7 4.3 3rd
4th 1.0 7.1 10.6 3.9 0.3 22.9 4th
5th 0.4 6.3 11.7 3.7 0.1 22.1 5th
6th 0.0 3.1 10.5 4.2 0.2 18.0 6th
7th 0.6 7.6 5.2 0.5 0.0 13.8 7th
8th 0.2 2.9 5.8 0.8 0.0 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.5 0.7 4.7 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.2 0.8 0.1 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.8 8.2 17.6 23.7 23.6 15.7 6.6 1.3 Total



Metro Atlantic Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.3% 22.7% 22.7% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
13-7 6.6% 15.7% 15.7% 15.4 0.0 0.6 0.4 5.5
12-8 15.7% 9.8% 9.8% 15.6 0.0 0.5 1.0 14.1
11-9 23.6% 6.7% 6.7% 15.8 0.3 1.3 22.0
10-10 23.7% 4.9% 4.9% 15.9 0.1 1.0 22.6
9-11 17.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5 17.1
8-12 8.2% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.2 8.0
7-13 2.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.8
6-14 0.7% 0.7
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.4 93.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 14.3 13.8 41.4 44.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%