American
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.6#242
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#184
Pace60.5#351
Improvement+0.7#136

Offense
Total Offense-1.8#224
First Shot+1.5#135
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#336
Layup/Dunks-1.5#233
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.4#31
Freethrows-0.2#188
Improvement-0.5#225

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#259
First Shot-3.4#291
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#129
Layups/Dunks-7.1#360
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#233
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.9#5
Freethrows-2.8#335
Improvement+1.2#91
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.5% 18.7% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.4 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 56.9% 79.5% 54.5%
.500 or above in Conference 69.7% 80.1% 68.6%
Conference Champion 18.6% 27.1% 17.7%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 3.2% 6.8%
First Four3.9% 2.9% 4.0%
First Round11.6% 17.1% 11.0%
Second Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Virginia (Away) - 9.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 32 - 7
Quad 414 - 816 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 164   @ La Salle L 52-65 25%     0 - 1 -10.4 -9.5 -3.2
  Nov 10, 2024 231   Harvard W 67-55 58%     1 - 1 +5.3 -0.4 +7.0
  Nov 12, 2024 305   @ Siena L 66-74 51%     1 - 2 -12.8 +4.0 -18.3
  Nov 15, 2024 22   @ North Carolina L 55-107 3%     1 - 3 -34.9 -13.5 -18.4
  Nov 18, 2024 135   @ High Point L 73-80 20%     1 - 4 -2.6 +13.5 -17.5
  Nov 22, 2024 240   UMKC W 64-60 49%     2 - 4 -0.3 -7.1 +6.9
  Nov 24, 2024 236   Albany W 81-77 48%     3 - 4 -0.1 +3.4 -3.6
  Dec 04, 2024 136   George Washington W 81-71 OT 39%     4 - 4 +8.4 -2.3 +9.6
  Dec 18, 2024 96   @ Saint Joseph's L 57-84 11%     4 - 5 -18.4 -8.4 -11.0
  Dec 22, 2024 90   @ Virginia L 51-65 10%    
  Dec 29, 2024 249   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 77-74 62%    
  Jan 02, 2025 302   @ Navy W 70-69 50%    
  Jan 05, 2025 310   Holy Cross W 72-65 74%    
  Jan 08, 2025 256   @ Boston University L 63-65 41%    
  Jan 11, 2025 264   Bucknell W 67-63 65%    
  Jan 13, 2025 313   @ Loyola Maryland W 67-66 53%    
  Jan 18, 2025 310   @ Holy Cross W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 22, 2025 244   Lehigh W 72-69 61%    
  Jan 25, 2025 223   Colgate W 67-65 56%    
  Jan 29, 2025 246   @ Lafayette L 63-66 40%    
  Feb 01, 2025 299   Army W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 05, 2025 264   @ Bucknell L 64-66 43%    
  Feb 08, 2025 244   @ Lehigh L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 10, 2025 246   Lafayette W 66-63 61%    
  Feb 15, 2025 313   Loyola Maryland W 70-63 73%    
  Feb 19, 2025 299   @ Army L 66-67 50%    
  Feb 22, 2025 256   Boston University W 66-62 63%    
  Feb 26, 2025 302   Navy W 72-66 70%    
  Mar 01, 2025 223   @ Colgate L 64-68 35%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.0 5.1 4.7 3.1 1.5 0.4 0.1 18.6 1st
2nd 0.7 4.4 5.7 3.4 0.9 0.1 0.0 15.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.1 5.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 12.9 3rd
4th 0.2 3.4 5.7 2.2 0.2 11.7 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 4.6 2.8 0.2 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.4 3.4 0.3 7.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.3 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 3.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.2 5.4 8.0 10.8 12.6 12.9 13.2 11.2 9.0 5.7 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
16-2 99.6% 1.5    1.4 0.0
15-3 96.0% 3.1    2.8 0.3
14-4 83.3% 4.7    3.6 1.1 0.1
13-5 57.0% 5.1    2.6 2.0 0.5 0.0
12-6 27.1% 3.0    0.8 1.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
11-7 5.1% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.6% 18.6 11.7 5.0 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.4% 46.3% 46.3% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2
16-2 1.5% 39.0% 39.0% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.9
15-3 3.2% 34.3% 34.3% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 2.1
14-4 5.7% 27.3% 27.3% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 4.1
13-5 9.0% 24.9% 24.9% 15.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 0.9 6.7
12-6 11.2% 19.1% 19.1% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 9.1
11-7 13.2% 14.9% 14.9% 15.8 0.0 0.3 1.6 11.2
10-8 12.9% 11.5% 11.5% 15.9 0.2 1.3 11.4
9-9 12.6% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 11.4
8-10 10.8% 5.5% 5.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6 10.2
7-11 8.0% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.3 7.7
6-12 5.4% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.1 5.3
5-13 3.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 3.2
4-14 1.8% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.0 1.8
3-15 0.8% 0.8
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 4.0 7.7 86.5 0.0%