American
Patriot League
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.8#249
Expected Predictive Rating-1.9#189
Pace60.7#348
Improvement+1.8#120

Offense
Total Offense-3.4#258
First Shot+0.0#168
After Offensive Rebound-3.4#342
Layup/Dunks-2.3#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#334
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.8#22
Freethrows-1.5#279
Improvement-1.9#278

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#217
First Shot-2.3#249
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#106
Layups/Dunks-6.3#357
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#253
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#6
Freethrows-1.4#281
Improvement+3.8#28
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.0% 100.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% n/a 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four39.0% 72.2% 0.0%
First Round33.6% 62.3% 0.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 31 - 21 - 6
Quad 419 - 620 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 225   @ La Salle L 52-65 34%     0 - 1 -13.7 -10.7 -5.3
  Nov 10, 2024 241   Harvard W 67-55 59%     1 - 1 +4.8 -1.3 +7.3
  Nov 12, 2024 254   @ Siena L 66-74 40%     1 - 2 -10.3 +4.2 -15.9
  Nov 15, 2024 36   @ North Carolina L 55-107 4%     1 - 3 -35.9 -15.1 -18.0
  Nov 18, 2024 88   @ High Point L 73-80 11%     1 - 4 +1.6 +14.2 -14.0
  Nov 22, 2024 234   UMKC W 64-60 47%     2 - 4 +0.1 -5.5 +5.7
  Nov 24, 2024 270   Albany W 81-77 55%     3 - 4 -2.1 +3.0 -5.1
  Dec 04, 2024 114   George Washington W 81-71 OT 30%     4 - 4 +10.5 +1.3 +8.2
  Dec 18, 2024 76   @ Saint Joseph's L 57-84 9%     4 - 5 -16.8 -8.4 -9.4
  Dec 22, 2024 99   @ Virginia L 58-63 13%     4 - 6 +2.5 -0.8 +2.3
  Dec 29, 2024 303   Maryland Baltimore Co. L 93-96 2OT 72%     4 - 7 -13.9 -3.8 -9.7
  Jan 02, 2025 265   @ Navy L 58-81 43%     4 - 8 0 - 1 -26.0 -10.9 -17.2
  Jan 05, 2025 319   Holy Cross W 75-64 76%     5 - 8 1 - 1 -1.3 +6.2 -5.9
  Jan 08, 2025 297   @ Boston University L 54-60 51%     5 - 9 1 - 2 -11.0 -9.4 -2.7
  Jan 11, 2025 224   Bucknell W 68-58 55%     6 - 9 2 - 2 +3.8 -2.5 +7.1
  Jan 13, 2025 309   @ Loyola Maryland W 73-54 55%     7 - 9 3 - 2 +12.9 +6.5 +8.7
  Jan 18, 2025 319   @ Holy Cross W 74-65 58%     8 - 9 4 - 2 +2.2 +5.8 -2.5
  Jan 22, 2025 280   Lehigh W 68-67 67%     9 - 9 5 - 2 -8.5 -1.0 -7.4
  Jan 25, 2025 256   Colgate W 81-77 62%     10 - 9 6 - 2 -3.9 +8.0 -11.6
  Jan 29, 2025 286   @ Lafayette W 75-68 49%     11 - 9 7 - 2 +2.5 +9.4 -6.2
  Feb 01, 2025 323   Army W 71-68 77%     12 - 9 8 - 2 -9.5 +1.7 -10.8
  Feb 05, 2025 224   @ Bucknell L 49-71 34%     12 - 10 8 - 3 -22.6 -17.4 -7.9
  Feb 08, 2025 280   @ Lehigh W 78-75 OT 47%     13 - 10 9 - 3 -1.0 +0.0 -1.1
  Feb 10, 2025 286   Lafayette W 60-58 69%     14 - 10 10 - 3 -8.0 -6.6 -1.1
  Feb 15, 2025 309   Loyola Maryland W 72-51 74%     15 - 10 11 - 3 +9.3 +5.0 +7.7
  Feb 19, 2025 323   @ Army L 69-76 58%     15 - 11 11 - 4 -14.0 +0.1 -14.8
  Feb 22, 2025 297   Boston University W 48-44 71%     16 - 11 12 - 4 -6.5 -21.5 +15.6
  Feb 26, 2025 265   Navy L 60-68 64%     16 - 12 12 - 5 -16.5 -11.0 -6.2
  Mar 01, 2025 256   @ Colgate W 67-59 41%     17 - 12 13 - 5 +5.6 -1.9 +8.3
  Mar 06, 2025 286   Lafayette W 71-69 69%     18 - 12 -8.0 -0.2 -7.6
  Mar 09, 2025 256   Colgate W 72-62 62%     19 - 12 +2.1 +0.3 +2.7
  Mar 12, 2025 265   Navy W 69-65 64%    
Projected Record 20 - 12 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 100.0    100.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 100.0% 54.0% 54.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6 52.4 46.0
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 54.0% 54.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 1.6 52.4 46.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 54.0% 100.0% 16.0 0.0 3.0 97.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 46.0%