American
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.7 #224
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 #190
Pace 68.0 #211
Improvement -0.3 #199

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #251 C D- C C- B-
Defense #202 D+ C B- F C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #222 1.13 #203 -1.5 #238
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #304 0.79 #130 -2.1 #286
Three Pointers 49% #39 1.03 #170 +4.1 #55
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #162 +0.6 #162
Freethrows 15.5 #268 77% #48 12.0 #213
Second Chance 25.1% #321 1.02 #215 0.25 #310
Turnovers 16.8% #207
Total Offense -2.8 #251

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #61 1.28 #321 -5.3 #342
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #145 0.73 #125 +0.0 #185
Three Pointers 36% #320 1.00 #156 +3.1 #65
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #250 -2.2 #250
Freethrows 21.4 #340 72% #160 15.5 #331
Second Chance 31.9% #245 0.98 #86 0.31 #162
Turnovers 17.8% #90
Total Defense -0.9 #202

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #97 0.5% #205
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.2% #180 3.9% #252
Possession Length 18.1 #255 16.4 #43
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #200 0.17 #179
Improvement -1.6 #277 +1.4 #101

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 20.7% 22.0% 18.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 94.7% 97.6% 90.2%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 99.2% 95.9%
Conference Champion 27.2% 34.8% 15.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four2.6% 2.0% 3.5%
First Round19.4% 20.9% 16.9%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Holy Cross (Away) - 61.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 21 - 7
Quad 418 - 519 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 63 @Wake Forest L 74 - 88 8% -9  0 - 1 -2 +2 C B- D- -4 B F C
 Sun, Nov 9 182 Penn W 84 - 78 53% +3  1 - 1 +2 +0 B F D- +1 C A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 72 @George Washington L 67 - 107 9% -20  1 - 2 -29 -8 D+ D+ F -18 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 115 @Rutgers L 71 - 80 17% -1  1 - 3 -3 +1 D- F A+ -4 C+ F C
 Fri, Nov 28 341 Maine W 74 - 61 84% +12  2 - 3 -2 +4 B+ F A+ -4 F C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 29 169 Siena L 55 - 59 51% -1  2 - 4 -8 -19 F D+ F +11 B+ A+ A+
 Sun, Nov 30 262 Longwood W 92 - 66 68% +8  3 - 4 +17 +12 B- B- C +5 A+ A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 203 Drexel W 75 - 73 58% -1  4 - 4 -4 +5 B+ F A+ -9 F A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 330 Maryland Eastern Shore W 78 - 60 82% +10  5 - 4 +4 +10 A+ F B+ -4 F A+ A+
 Thu, Dec 18 55 @Virginia Commonwealth L 83 - 105 7% -12  5 - 5 -9 +15 B C- A+ -23 F F C
 Mon, Dec 22 16 @Virginia L 51 - 95 2% -18  5 - 6 -23 -7 F D+ C -21 F F C+
 Wed, Dec 31 324 Loyola Maryland W 84 - 69 81% +10  6 - 6 1 - 0 +2 +7 A+ F B- -4 F A- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 285 @Boston University W 64 - 62 51% +5  7 - 6 2 - 0 -2 -2 C F D +1 A+ F F
 Wed, Jan 7 199 @Colgate L 62 - 64 34% +5  7 - 7 2 - 1 -2 -1 A+ F F -1 B+ D B-
 Sat, Jan 10 320 Holy Cross L 73 - 84 81% -3  7 - 8 2 - 2 -24 -7 F C C -17 F D+ F
 Mon, Jan 12 194 Navy W 65 - 51 56% +11  8 - 8 3 - 2 +9 -0 C- F A+ +11 A+ A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 18 333 @Army W 78 - 67 65% +7  9 - 8 4 - 2 +3 +7 B- A+ F -3 D- C C-
 Wed, Jan 21 199 Colgate W 70 - 66 57% +1  10 - 8 5 - 2 -2 -4 C- A+ F +3 B+ B A-
 Sat, Jan 24 320 @Holy Cross W 71 - 68 61%
 Wed, Jan 28 324 @Loyola Maryland W 76 - 73 62%
 Sat, Jan 31 314 Lafayette W 76 - 67 79%
 Wed, Feb 4 319 Bucknell W 75 - 66 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 194 @Navy L 67 - 71 34%
 Wed, Feb 11 307 @Lehigh W 73 - 71 56%
 Sat, Feb 14 333 Army W 79 - 69 83%
 Wed, Feb 18 319 @Bucknell W 72 - 69 61%
 Sun, Feb 22 314 @Lafayette W 73 - 70 59%
 Wed, Feb 25 307 Lehigh W 76 - 68 76%
 Sat, Feb 28 285 Boston University W 75 - 69 72%
Totals 17 - 12 12 - 6 -4 -3 C D- C -1 D+ C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 6.8 9.9 6.8 1.6 27.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 4.3 11.6 12.5 5.3 0.6 34.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 4.4 10.0 8.1 2.5 0.2 25.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 3.8 1.7 0.2 7.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.5 0.0 2.6 5th
6th 0.1 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.6 4.3 9.3 16.2 21.9 21.9 15.4 7.4 1.6 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.1
15-3 91.7% 6.8    5.0 1.7 0.1
14-4 64.2% 9.9    5.2 4.1 0.6
13-5 31.1% 6.8    2.2 3.3 1.3 0.0
12-6 9.0% 2.0    0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1
11-7 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 27.2% 27.2 14.2 10.0 2.7 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 1.6% 37.7% 37.7% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.0
15-3 7.4% 32.2% 32.2% 14.6 0.1 0.9 1.3 0.1 5.0
14-4 15.4% 27.9% 27.9% 15.0 0.0 0.6 2.9 0.8 11.1
13-5 21.9% 22.3% 22.3% 15.4 0.3 2.6 2.0 17.0
12-6 21.9% 20.1% 20.1% 15.6 0.1 1.6 2.7 17.5
11-7 16.2% 15.3% 15.3% 15.7 0.0 0.6 1.8 13.7
10-8 9.3% 12.4% 12.4% 15.9 0.1 1.0 8.2
9-9 4.3% 9.6% 9.6% 15.9 0.1 0.4 3.9
8-10 1.6% 6.1% 6.1% 16.0 0.1 1.5
7-11 0.4% 4.1% 4.1% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 20.7% 20.7% 0.0% 15.3 79.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 13.6 2.4 38.2 52.8 6.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%