Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#198
Expected Predictive Rating-3.5#222
Pace67.4#245
Improvement-4.5#364

Offense
Total Offense-2.0#223
First Shot-1.9#226
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#183
Layup/Dunks-0.3#189
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#110
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.4#338
Freethrows+3.7#24
Improvement-2.0#328

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#178
First Shot-1.6#222
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#104
Layups/Dunks+4.1#52
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#359
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#255
Freethrows+1.0#126
Improvement-2.5#343
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.5% 23.2% 18.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.2 15.2 15.5
.500 or above 88.8% 91.0% 77.3%
.500 or above in Conference 89.3% 90.1% 84.7%
Conference Champion 31.0% 32.2% 24.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 1.0% 1.6%
First Four4.6% 4.4% 6.0%
First Round20.3% 21.2% 15.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 84.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 418 - 619 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 257 @Presbyterian W 76-55 50%     1 - 0 +18.6 +10.8 +9.6
  Fri, Nov 7 73 Yale L 68-97 25%     1 - 1 -24.3 -12.4 -9.8
  Tue, Nov 11 96 @Penn St. L 71-80 16%     1 - 2 -0.9 +1.4 -2.4
  Tue, Nov 18 21 @North Carolina L 61-73 4%     1 - 3 +6.1 -3.1 +9.1
  Sat, Nov 22 351 NJIT W 86-70 88%     2 - 3 +0.7 +9.9 -8.9
  Wed, Nov 26 360 Gardner-Webb W 84-51 87%     3 - 3 +18.6 +8.8 +11.4
  Fri, Nov 28 109 @UNC Wilmington L 57-87 18%     3 - 4 -22.9 -9.5 -15.6
  Sat, Nov 29 248 SE Louisiana L 65-69 59%     3 - 5 -8.8 -1.8 -7.2
  Wed, Dec 3 355 @Delaware St. W 66-59 78%     4 - 5 -3.5 -9.4 +5.8
  Sun, Dec 7 332 Air Force W 72-61 84%    
  Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 79-61 95%    
  Wed, Dec 31 235 Boston University W 73-68 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 301 @Holy Cross W 71-69 58%    
  Wed, Jan 7 304 Bucknell W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Jan 10 331 Lafayette W 75-64 83%    
  Mon, Jan 12 250 @American L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Jan 17 299 @Lehigh W 71-69 59%    
  Wed, Jan 21 301 Holy Cross W 74-66 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 342 Army W 78-66 86%    
  Wed, Jan 28 235 @Boston University L 70-71 47%    
  Sat, Jan 31 319 Loyola Maryland W 77-67 81%    
  Wed, Feb 4 331 @Lafayette W 72-67 66%    
  Sat, Feb 7 250 American W 75-70 69%    
  Mon, Feb 9 304 @Bucknell W 73-70 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 176 @Colgate L 69-73 34%    
  Wed, Feb 18 299 Lehigh W 74-66 77%    
  Sat, Feb 21 342 @Army W 75-69 70%    
  Wed, Feb 25 319 @Loyola Maryland W 74-70 63%    
  Sat, Feb 28 176 Colgate W 72-70 57%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.3 2.2 5.4 8.4 7.4 5.1 1.8 0.4 31.0 1st
2nd 0.4 3.0 7.6 7.3 3.7 1.1 0.1 23.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.1 6.7 4.4 1.4 0.1 16.1 3rd
4th 0.1 2.0 4.9 3.0 0.6 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 3.8 2.2 0.3 7.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.5 1.8 0.3 5.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5 10th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.1 8.1 10.8 13.3 14.7 14.0 12.3 8.5 5.2 1.8 0.4 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
17-1 100.0% 1.8    1.8 0.0
16-2 98.1% 5.1    4.8 0.3
15-3 86.9% 7.4    6.0 1.3 0.1
14-4 68.7% 8.4    5.5 2.6 0.3
13-5 38.2% 5.4    2.3 2.3 0.7 0.0
12-6 14.6% 2.2    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.2% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 31.0% 31.0 21.3 7.6 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.4% 55.5% 55.5% 12.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
17-1 1.8% 49.8% 49.8% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.9
16-2 5.2% 44.0% 44.0% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.9 0.0 2.9
15-3 8.5% 37.0% 37.0% 14.8 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.4 5.4
14-4 12.3% 31.7% 31.7% 15.2 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.2 8.4
13-5 14.0% 26.2% 26.2% 15.4 0.2 1.8 1.7 10.4
12-6 14.7% 22.6% 22.6% 15.7 0.1 0.8 2.4 11.4
11-7 13.3% 16.5% 16.5% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.8 11.1
10-8 10.8% 12.9% 12.9% 15.9 0.1 1.3 9.4
9-9 8.1% 11.2% 11.2% 16.0 0.0 0.9 7.2
8-10 5.1% 6.7% 6.7% 16.0 0.3 4.7
7-11 3.0% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.1 2.9
6-12 1.5% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-13 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-14 0.3% 2.2% 2.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 22.5% 22.5% 0.0% 15.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.1 8.0 10.4 77.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.1 21.7 50.7 21.7 5.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%