Navy
Patriot League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.2 #194
Expected Predictive Rating -1.5 #195
Pace 66.5 #247
Improvement +1.2 #124

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #264 D- C D+ A C
Defense #133 B- C C B A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #112 1.06 #293 -0.5 #198
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #112 0.67 #302 +0.2 #169
Three Pointers 35% #303 0.94 #277 -4.3 #317
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #312 -4.7 #312
Freethrows 20.8 #25 75% #106 15.6 #24
Second Chance 29.8% #208 1.08 #139 0.32 #173
Turnovers 17.7% #264
Total Offense -3.2 #264

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #341 1.23 #276 +3.4 #73
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #39 0.80 #256 -2.8 #348
Three Pointers 43% #121 0.90 #56 +1.4 #127
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #120 +2.1 #119
Freethrows 14.1 #33 77% #336 10.8 #68
Second Chance 29.8% #143 1.07 #219 0.32 #179
Turnovers 16.2% #198
Total Defense +1.0 #133

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.4% #218 -2.6% #22
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -8.8% #320 -1.4% #157
Possession Length 18.5 #291 17.3 #173
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #281 0.16 #152
Improvement +0.1 #172 +1.1 #109

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.6% 29.5% 23.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 98.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 98.0%
Conference Champion 59.0% 62.2% 39.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.0% 1.8% 3.2%
First Round27.7% 28.7% 21.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Army (Home) - 86.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 3
Quad 31 - 31 - 6
Quad 420 - 521 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 266 @Presbyterian W 76 - 55 52% +16  1 - 0 +18 +9 C C+ A +11 A A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 83 Yale L 68 - 97 27% -14  1 - 1 -25 -12 D D+ F -11 C- F C-
 Tue, Nov 11 116 @Penn St. L 71 - 80 21% -6  1 - 2 -3 +0 D C F -3 A- F C
 Tue, Nov 18 31 @North Carolina L 61 - 73 5% -10  1 - 3 +5 -5 F D A+ +10 B+ A+ A+
 Sat, Nov 22 336 NJIT W 86 - 70 87% +10  2 - 3 +2 +10 B+ C- C+ -8 A- F F
 Wed, Nov 26 363 Gardner-Webb W 84 - 51 93% +16  3 - 3 +14 +6 D+ A+ F +10 B+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 28 125 @UNC Wilmington L 57 - 87 23% -21  3 - 4 -25 -9 F F D+ -18 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 272 SE Louisiana L 65 - 69 65% -7  3 - 5 -10 -2 F D C+ -8 F D A+
 Wed, Dec 3 355 @Delaware St. W 66 - 59 80% +9  4 - 5 -4 -8 F A- F +4 B- C F
 Sun, Dec 7 340 Air Force W 61 - 56 87% -0  5 - 5 -9 -9 F F A +0 A C+ F
 Fri, Dec 19 364 Coppin St. W 88 - 55 96% +12  6 - 5 +10 +9 D A+ F +3 B- A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 31 285 Boston University W 82 - 77 77% +5  7 - 5 1 - 0 -5 +4 B- C- D+ -8 C+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 3 320 @Holy Cross W 65 - 58 67% +6  8 - 5 2 - 0 +0 -1 D- F D- +3 A+ F B
 Wed, Jan 7 319 Bucknell W 76 - 55 84% +16  9 - 5 3 - 0 +8 +4 D+ A F +5 A+ A A+
 Sat, Jan 10 314 Lafayette W 76 - 50 83% +20  10 - 5 4 - 0 +14 +1 B D+ D+ +14 A A+ A+
 Mon, Jan 12 224 @American L 51 - 65 44% -11  10 - 6 4 - 1 -15 -15 F F F -2 B+ A F
 Sat, Jan 17 307 @Lehigh W 82 - 79 2OT 62% -0  11 - 6 5 - 1 -2 -1 D- A- F -2 B A- F
 Wed, Jan 21 320 Holy Cross W 85 - 68 84% +6  12 - 6 6 - 1 +4 +12 C A+ A+ -7 D F B+
 Sat, Jan 24 333 Army W 78 - 66 86%
 Wed, Jan 28 285 @Boston University W 71 - 69 57%
 Sat, Jan 31 324 Loyola Maryland W 78 - 67 84%
 Wed, Feb 4 314 @Lafayette W 71 - 67 65%
 Sat, Feb 7 224 American W 71 - 67 66%
 Mon, Feb 9 319 @Bucknell W 71 - 66 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 199 @Colgate L 70 - 73 41%
 Wed, Feb 18 307 Lehigh W 74 - 65 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 333 @Army W 75 - 69 70%
 Wed, Feb 25 324 @Loyola Maryland W 75 - 70 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 199 Colgate W 73 - 70 61%
Totals 19 - 10 13 - 5 -2 -3 D- C D+ +1 B- C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Patriot League Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.7 9.9 18.6 16.7 8.7 2.3 59.0 1st
2nd 0.2 2.4 7.3 9.0 4.0 0.3 23.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.8 5.1 5.1 1.8 0.1 14.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.9 0.1 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.5 8.6 15.2 20.7 22.7 17.0 8.7 2.3 Total



Patriot League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.3    2.3
16-2 100.0% 8.7    8.6 0.1
15-3 98.1% 16.7    14.6 2.1 0.1
14-4 81.9% 18.6    12.4 5.6 0.6
13-5 47.8% 9.9    4.1 4.4 1.4 0.0
12-6 17.6% 2.7    0.6 1.3 0.7 0.1
11-7 2.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 59.0% 59.0 42.6 13.4 2.8 0.3



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.3% 44.2% 44.2% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 1.3
16-2 8.7% 41.5% 41.5% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.5 0.1 5.1
15-3 17.0% 35.9% 35.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 1.5 3.9 0.6 10.9
14-4 22.7% 30.5% 30.5% 15.2 0.0 0.7 4.2 2.0 15.8
13-5 20.7% 25.8% 25.8% 15.4 0.3 2.6 2.4 15.3
12-6 15.2% 22.6% 22.6% 15.6 0.1 1.1 2.3 11.8
11-7 8.6% 19.5% 19.5% 15.8 0.0 0.4 1.3 6.9
10-8 3.5% 13.3% 13.3% 15.8 0.1 0.4 3.0
9-9 1.1% 9.3% 9.3% 16.0 0.0 0.1 1.0
8-10 0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.3
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 28.6% 28.6% 0.0% 15.1 71.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 13.3 0.5 9.5 48.7 39.7 1.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%