Yale
Ivy League
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.2 #83
Expected Predictive Rating +8.3 #73
Pace 66.1 #263
Improvement -2.8 #305

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #38 B+ A+ B+ C+ C+
Defense #189 C C- D+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #60 1.12 #220 +1.8 #112
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #176 0.95 #17 +2.0 #83
Three Pointers 36% #282 1.22 #5 +1.3 #136
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #49 +5.1 #49
Freethrows 17.5 #178 77% #41 13.5 #122
Second Chance 34.2% #81 1.29 #6 0.44 #23
Turnovers 14.0% #47
Total Offense +7.8 #38

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #300 1.20 #245 +1.7 #121
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #179 0.78 #214 -0.3 #199
Three Pointers 45% #61 1.01 #175 -2.0 #275
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #192 -0.5 #193
Freethrows 17.3 #183 73% #187 12.6 #179
Second Chance 31.1% #204 1.08 #233 0.33 #224
Turnovers 15.0% #264
Total Defense -0.6 #189

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #145 -0.6% #116
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.3% #45 1.5% #209
Possession Length 17.8 #220 17.9 #271
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #334 0.14 #83
Improvement -4.2 #353 +1.4 #96

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 62.1% 64.3% 56.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.9% 99.1%
Conference Champion 86.9% 91.9% 75.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round62.1% 64.3% 56.9%
Second Round10.5% 11.5% 8.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.2% 1.4%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Penn (Away) - 70.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 01 - 1
Quad 310 - 311 - 4
Quad 411 - 122 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 194 @Navy W 97 - 68 73% +14  1 - 0 +30 +19 A+ A+ A- +8 C- B- A+
 Tue, Nov 11 175 @Quinnipiac W 97 - 60 70% +18  2 - 0 +39 +25 A+ A+ C- +14 A- C+ A+
 Sat, Nov 15 242 Stony Brook W 86 - 79 91% +7  3 - 0 -0 +17 A+ B C- -17 F F C+
 Tue, Nov 18 122 Rhode Island L 77 - 86 77% -0  3 - 1 -9 +10 C- A+ C+ -20 F D F
 Fri, Nov 21 255 Green Bay W 73 - 67 87% +6  4 - 1 +1 +4 B- B- D -2 A+ F D-
 Sun, Nov 23 164 College of Charleston W 74 - 63 76% +9  5 - 1 +11 +6 A D C+ +5 A- A+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 64 Akron W 97 - 94 44% +6  6 - 1 +12 +30 A+ A- A+ -19 F F B
 Sun, Nov 30 204 @Vermont W 77 - 74 75% +3  7 - 1 +3 +13 C C+ A+ -9 F C B
 Sun, Dec 7 151 Illinois-Chicago W 80 - 66 82% +4  8 - 1 +12 +13 D- A+ A+ -1 A A- F
 Wed, Dec 10 305 Albany W 93 - 82 92% +6  9 - 1 +3 +12 B+ D- C+ -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 17 @Alabama L 78 - 102 11% -19  9 - 2 -3 +13 C+ A+ A -16 C+ F F
 Mon, Jan 5 264 @Brown W 70 - 53 82% +3  10 - 2 1 - 0 +14 +0 C+ B+ F +14 A+ B C-
 Sat, Jan 10 214 @Princeton L 60 - 76 76% -2  10 - 3 1 - 1 -16 -8 F B+ B- -10 F D B-
 Sat, Jan 17 187 Cornell W 102 - 68 87% +21  11 - 3 2 - 1 +29 +20 A+ A+ A+ +9 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Jan 19 180 Columbia W 91 - 74 86% +9  12 - 3 3 - 1 +13 +23 A+ A+ C -9 B+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 182 @Penn W 82 - 76 70%
 Fri, Jan 30 221 Dartmouth W 87 - 73 90%
 Sat, Jan 31 168 Harvard W 78 - 67 85%
 Fri, Feb 6 264 Brown W 79 - 63 93%
 Mon, Feb 9 265 @Howard W 80 - 70 82%
 Fri, Feb 13 221 @Dartmouth W 84 - 76 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 168 @Harvard W 75 - 70 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 182 Penn W 85 - 73 86%
 Fri, Feb 27 187 @Cornell W 92 - 86 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 180 @Columbia W 81 - 76 69%
 Sat, Mar 7 214 Princeton W 80 - 66 90%
Totals 21 - 5 11 - 3 +7 +8 B+ A+ B+ -1 C C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ivy League Finish

0-14 1-13 2-12 3-11 4-10 5-9 6-8 7-7 8-6 9-5 10-4 11-3 12-2 13-1 14-0 Total
1st 0.3 4.4 15.9 27.0 26.1 13.3 86.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 4.4 2.9 0.4 9.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.5 0.7 0.0 2.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 1.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.5 9.5 18.8 27.4 26.1 13.3 Total



Ivy League Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
14-0
13-1 100.0% 13.3    13.3
12-2 100.0% 26.1    26.0 0.2
11-3 98.6% 27.0    24.5 2.4 0.0
10-4 84.6% 15.9    10.0 5.3 0.5 0.0
9-5 46.0% 4.4    0.9 2.1 1.2 0.2
8-6 7.6% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
7-7 0.0%
Total 86.9% 86.9 74.7 10.0 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
14-0
13-1 13.3% 73.7% 73.6% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 6.3 3.0 0.1 3.5 0.3%
12-2 26.1% 66.9% 66.9% 11.9 3.5 12.3 1.7 0.0 0.0 8.7
11-3 27.4% 62.9% 62.9% 12.2 0.8 12.0 4.3 0.2 10.2
10-4 18.8% 58.0% 58.0% 12.4 0.1 6.5 4.0 0.3 0.0 7.9
9-5 9.5% 52.9% 52.9% 12.6 0.0 2.3 2.3 0.4 4.5
8-6 3.5% 41.8% 41.8% 12.8 0.5 0.8 0.2 2.0
7-7 1.1% 16.7% 16.7% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.9
6-8 0.2% 2.0% 2.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2
5-9 0.0% 0.0
4-10 0.0% 0.0
3-11
2-12
1-13
0-14
Total 100% 62.1% 62.1% 0.0% 12.1 37.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 8.6% 100.0% 11.2 0.2 1.2 4.1 68.3 26.0 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5% 0.7% 11.0 0.7