Vermont
America East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#184
Expected Predictive Rating-3.1#221
Pace60.6#350
Improvement+1.0#116

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#288
First Shot-0.7#188
After Offensive Rebound-3.1#335
Layup/Dunks-4.2#319
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#206
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#73
Freethrows+0.7#134
Improvement+0.9#109

Defense
Total Defense+2.6#105
First Shot+1.4#125
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#81
Layups/Dunks-2.6#281
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#174
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#47
Freethrows+0.0#186
Improvement+0.2#168
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.2% 20.6% 16.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 76.5% 83.3% 63.4%
.500 or above in Conference 88.5% 90.3% 85.1%
Conference Champion 25.1% 27.4% 20.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four1.9% 1.5% 2.8%
First Round18.3% 20.0% 15.3%
Second Round0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Dartmouth (Away) - 65.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 34 - 54 - 7
Quad 413 - 617 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 129   @ UAB W 67-62 28%     1 - 0 +9.9 +0.7 +9.7
  Nov 06, 2024 1   @ Auburn L 43-94 1%     1 - 1 -25.2 -20.7 -4.7
  Nov 09, 2024 198   @ Merrimack L 51-65 40%     1 - 2 -12.6 -13.8 -0.1
  Nov 15, 2024 258   @ Iona L 59-62 54%     1 - 3 -5.3 -10.4 +4.9
  Nov 19, 2024 330   Buffalo W 78-67 86%     2 - 3 -1.9 +4.8 -5.8
  Nov 23, 2024 219   Delaware W 75-71 56%     3 - 3 +1.4 +0.0 +1.4
  Nov 24, 2024 280   Fairfield L 66-67 70%     3 - 4 -7.6 -4.6 -3.1
  Nov 30, 2024 160   Northeastern W 68-64 58%     4 - 4 +0.8 -2.4 +3.4
  Dec 03, 2024 156   Brown L 53-60 57%     4 - 5 -10.0 -8.8 -2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 100   @ Yale L 50-65 19%     4 - 6 -6.7 -14.2 +5.7
  Dec 15, 2024 223   @ Colgate L 60-65 46%     4 - 7 -5.2 -5.4 -0.4
  Dec 18, 2024 209   Miami (OH) W 75-67 66%     5 - 7 +2.7 +1.1 +1.7
  Dec 21, 2024 312   @ Dartmouth W 67-63 65%    
  Jan 04, 2025 356   @ New Hampshire W 67-58 79%    
  Jan 09, 2025 147   @ Umass Lowell L 66-71 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 178   @ Bryant L 69-72 38%    
  Jan 16, 2025 314   Binghamton W 67-57 83%    
  Jan 23, 2025 352   NJIT W 67-53 91%    
  Jan 25, 2025 249   Maryland Baltimore Co. W 75-68 73%    
  Jan 30, 2025 314   @ Binghamton W 64-60 66%    
  Feb 01, 2025 212   Maine W 64-60 66%    
  Feb 08, 2025 236   @ Albany L 67-68 49%    
  Feb 13, 2025 356   New Hampshire W 70-55 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 212   @ Maine L 61-63 44%    
  Feb 20, 2025 178   Bryant W 72-69 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 147   Umass Lowell W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 27, 2025 352   @ NJIT W 64-56 77%    
  Mar 01, 2025 249   @ Maryland Baltimore Co. W 72-71 52%    
  Mar 04, 2025 236   Albany W 71-65 70%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 10 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.5 7.1 7.9 5.0 1.9 0.4 25.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 4.0 8.9 6.3 1.8 0.2 21.5 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.7 8.7 4.8 0.7 0.0 18.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 3.2 6.8 3.8 0.4 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 10.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.0 1.6 0.2 6.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.3 0.7 0.1 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.1 6.2 10.1 13.6 17.0 16.6 14.1 9.6 5.2 1.9 0.4 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
15-1 100.0% 1.9    1.9 0.0
14-2 97.0% 5.0    4.5 0.5
13-3 81.8% 7.9    5.4 2.3 0.2
12-4 50.3% 7.1    2.8 3.5 0.8 0.1
11-5 15.3% 2.5    0.4 1.0 0.8 0.3 0.0
10-6 1.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 25.1% 25.1 15.3 7.3 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.4% 57.8% 57.8% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
15-1 1.9% 43.4% 43.4% 13.2 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 1.1
14-2 5.2% 37.0% 37.0% 13.8 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.3
13-3 9.6% 31.5% 31.5% 14.3 0.0 0.4 1.4 1.1 0.1 6.6
12-4 14.1% 27.8% 27.8% 14.7 0.1 1.2 2.2 0.4 10.2
11-5 16.6% 21.3% 21.3% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.0 1.0 13.0
10-6 17.0% 14.7% 14.7% 15.4 0.1 1.2 1.2 14.5
9-7 13.6% 12.7% 12.7% 15.6 0.0 0.6 1.1 11.9
8-8 10.1% 9.2% 9.2% 15.8 0.1 0.8 9.2
7-9 6.2% 6.9% 6.9% 16.0 0.0 0.4 5.8
6-10 3.1% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.1 3.0
5-11 1.5% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.1 1.5
4-12 0.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
3-13 0.2% 0.2
2-14 0.0% 0.0
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.6 7.6 5.1 80.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.2 6.0 72.3 21.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%