Vermont
America East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 #204
Expected Predictive Rating -2.0 #206
Pace 62.7 #336
Improvement -3.5 #324

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #164 B- F B- D- C
Defense #261 D B F C B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #260 1.27 #68 +0.4 #166
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #230 0.79 #121 -0.8 #217
Three Pointers 47% #68 1.03 #161 +3.2 #81
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #96 +2.8 #98
Freethrows 14.2 #327 73% #166 10.4 #308
Second Chance 22.5% #351 1.02 #218 0.23 #341
Turnovers 15.1% #88
Total Offense +0.0 #164

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #283 1.22 #265 +0.8 #140
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #85 0.71 #113 -0.7 #232
Three Pointers 41% #166 1.17 #342 -3.3 #310
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #278 -3.2 #279
Freethrows 17.7 #204 74% #244 13.1 #214
Second Chance 26.8% #54 1.01 #138 0.27 #68
Turnovers 12.2% #357
Total Defense -2.8 #261

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #172 -1.2% #75
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.3% #94 7.5% #316
Possession Length 18.6 #300 17.4 #205
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #361 0.13 #58
Improvement -4.7 #360 +1.2 #106

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 41.0% 43.0% 36.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.2 15.6
.500 or above 99.0% 99.6% 97.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.6% 99.9% 99.0%
Conference Champion 75.5% 81.0% 61.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four6.8% 5.7% 9.4%
First Round38.0% 40.5% 32.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bryant (Away) - 71.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 16 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 31 - 41 - 6
Quad 419 - 620 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sun, Nov 9 264 @Brown W 89 - 84 2OT 49% -3  1 - 0 +2 +6 D C- A+ -5 F A+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 259 @Northeastern W 85 - 74 48% +0  2 - 0 +9 +9 A+ F C -0 B+ F A
 Tue, Nov 18 201 @Buffalo L 90 - 94 38% -0  2 - 1 -4 +11 A+ D- C+ -14 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 94 Liberty L 73 - 79 21% -10  2 - 2 -0 +3 C+ D C -4 F A- C-
 Tue, Nov 25 122 Rhode Island L 65 - 80 30% -7  2 - 3 -12 +2 C B+ C- -15 D- D- F
 Wed, Nov 26 214 Princeton W 79 - 74 52% +7  3 - 3 +2 +13 A B+ B- -11 F C- F
 Sun, Nov 30 83 Yale L 74 - 77 25% -3  3 - 4 +1 +9 A+ F D- -8 B- A+ F
 Wed, Dec 3 195 @Oregon St. L 58 - 80 37% -16  3 - 5 -21 -8 D- F C -16 F A- F
 Sat, Dec 6 279 @Pepperdine W 65 - 56 53% +1  4 - 5 +5 +1 A- F D +5 B A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 14 208 Merrimack W 66 - 59 62% +7  5 - 5 +1 +4 D+ F A+ -2 B- D C
 Wed, Dec 17 169 Siena W 83 - 69 55% +12  6 - 5 +10 +9 A C A+ +1 B+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 20 227 Iona L 78 - 83 65% -0  6 - 6 -12 +6 C+ F A+ -18 D F F
 Tue, Dec 30 214 @Princeton L 69 - 75 OT 41% -4  6 - 7 -6 -0 F B C- -6 F A+ D+
 Sat, Jan 3 323 @New Hampshire W 80 - 61 66% +9  7 - 7 1 - 0 +12 +14 A+ B- B -0 D- B- A-
 Thu, Jan 8 362 Binghamton W 60 - 59 92% -1  8 - 7 2 - 0 -18 -13 D- F C -5 D A+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 341 Maine W 67 - 62 86% -1  9 - 7 3 - 0 -10 +2 B F A+ -11 A- C F
 Mon, Jan 19 305 @Albany L 68 - 75 59% -3  9 - 8 3 - 1 -12 -5 C+ F F -7 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 309 @Umass Lowell W 77 - 68 60% +5  10 - 8 4 - 1 +4 +4 B- F A- -0 B+ D- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 343 @Bryant W 70 - 64 71%
 Thu, Jan 29 275 Maryland Baltimore Co. W 76 - 69 73%
 Sat, Jan 31 336 NJIT W 76 - 65 86%
 Thu, Feb 5 341 @Maine W 67 - 61 71%
 Sat, Feb 7 323 New Hampshire W 74 - 64 82%
 Thu, Feb 12 362 @Binghamton W 74 - 64 82%
 Sat, Feb 14 343 Bryant W 73 - 61 87%
 Thu, Feb 19 275 @Maryland Baltimore Co. W 73 - 72 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 336 @NJIT W 73 - 68 69%
 Thu, Feb 26 309 Umass Lowell W 78 - 69 79%
 Tue, Mar 3 305 Albany W 75 - 67 78%
Totals 18 - 11 12 - 4 -3 +0 B- F B- -3 D B F




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected America East Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1.0 7.6 18.4 24.1 17.7 6.6 75.5 1st
2nd 0.5 4.2 7.2 4.0 0.6 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 2.6 0.6 0.0 4.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.5 8.1 15.5 22.4 24.7 17.7 6.6 Total



America East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1 100.0% 6.6    6.6
14-2 100.0% 17.7    17.5 0.2
13-3 97.6% 24.1    21.7 2.4
12-4 82.2% 18.4    12.3 5.7 0.4
11-5 49.2% 7.6    2.6 3.8 1.3 0.1
10-6 12.3% 1.0    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 75.5% 75.5 60.8 12.3 2.0 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1 6.6% 56.6% 56.6% 13.6 0.1 1.5 1.8 0.3 2.9
14-2 17.7% 50.7% 50.7% 14.8 0.2 2.1 5.7 1.0 8.7
13-3 24.7% 44.3% 44.3% 15.4 0.0 0.7 5.4 4.9 13.7
12-4 22.4% 39.3% 39.3% 15.7 0.2 2.7 6.0 13.6
11-5 15.5% 34.4% 34.4% 15.8 0.0 0.9 4.4 10.2
10-6 8.1% 26.8% 26.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.9
9-7 3.5% 23.0% 23.0% 16.0 0.0 0.8 2.7
8-8 1.1% 17.4% 17.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2 0.9
7-9 0.3% 14.3% 14.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-10 0.0% 0.0
5-11 0.0% 0.0
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 41.0% 41.0% 0.0% 15.3 59.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.8% 100.0% 13.6 3.2 39.5 48.2 9.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1%