Pepperdine
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.6 291
Expected Predictive Rating -9.4 311
Pace 69.3 163
Improvement -2.9 299

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D #317 D+ D D+ C C-
Defense C- #238 C D+ C B D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 252 55% 255 -2.5 268
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 132 36% 233 +0.4 152
Three Pointers 41% 176 32% 263 -1.1 222
1st FG Attempt 0.95 276 -3.2 274
Second Chance 28.3% 241 0.89 331 0.25 308
Turnovers 18.6% 291
Freethrows 0.29 244 77% 40 0.22 180
Total Offense -5.6 317

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 98 58% 181 -1.9 251
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 353 40% 244 +2.4 19
Three Pointers 44% 76 33% 135 -1.2 242
1st FG Attempt 1.03 204 -0.7 203
Second Chance 32.2% 251 1.08 263 0.35 265
Turnovers 16.7% 191
Freethrows 0.26 56 72% 193 0.19 64
Total Defense -2.0 238

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.4 247 +1.1 351
Shot Type Accuracy -2.8 276 -0.4 164
Possession Length 17.9 242 16.9 120
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 357 0.16 151
Improvement +0.3 #160 -3.2 #325

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 0% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 100% 99% 100%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Home) - 32.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 6
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 31 - 111 - 19
Quad 44 - 55 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 34 @UCLA L 63 - 74 2% -10  6% 0 - 1 B- +6 C+ +3 D- A+ C+ B- +3 B+ D- B
 Sat, Nov 15 175 Northern Colorado L 81 - 88 OT 36% -5  1% 0 - 2 D -11 F -10 D F C- C +0 C D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 225 New Orleans W 90 - 79 45% +6  87% 1 - 2 C+ +5 B- +4 B- F A+ C -0 C C- A-
 Fri, Nov 21 105 Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 63 20% +3  54% 1 - 3 C -2 F -11 D+ D F A- +9 A F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 140 Fresno St. L 53 - 76 20% -7  53% 1 - 4 F -22 F -18 F C- F D+ -4 D F+ F
 Sat, Nov 29 210 @Cal St. Fullerton L 69 - 83 23% -5  24% 1 - 5 D- -14 D -5 F D- C+ D- -9 C- F D-
 Tue, Dec 2 260 Abilene Christian L 63 - 71 54% -8  4% 1 - 6 F+ -17 D- -6 D F A F -12 D- D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 224 Vermont L 56 - 65 45% -1  44% 1 - 7 F+ -15 F -17 F F F C +0 D+ A- B-
 Sat, Dec 13 322 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 70 - 62 48% +4  86% 2 - 7 C +1 D -6 B+ F F B+ +7 A- A+ B
 Thu, Dec 18 251 @Long Beach St. L 78 - 81 29% +2  60% 2 - 8 D+ -5 C+ +2 A A F D -7 F C F+
 Sat, Dec 20 220 Rice W 84 - 62 44% +8  93% 3 - 8 A- +16 C+ +3 A C+ F A +12 A+ C- C+
 Sun, Dec 28 13 Gonzaga L 56 - 96 2% -22  0% 3 - 9 0 - 1 F -24 F -12 F+ B C+ F -11 D B C-
 Tue, Dec 30 40 St. Mary's L 45 - 72 6% -12  0% 3 - 10 0 - 2 F+ -17 F -18 D- C- F C- -2 C- B C
 Fri, Jan 2 44 @Santa Clara L 63 - 82 3% -7  16% 3 - 11 0 - 3 C- -4 F -11 F+ C- F B+ +8 C- A+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 115 @Pacific L 69 - 74 11% -3  23% 3 - 12 0 - 4 C +1 C +1 C+ D+ C- C +0 D+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 216 @San Diego L 63 - 83 23% -12  3% 3 - 13 0 - 5 F -20 F -11 D- F D- F+ -10 F D- D+
 Sat, Jan 10 107 San Francisco L 60 - 80 20% -12  0% 3 - 14 0 - 6 F -19 F -12 F D+ A D- -8 F C B
 Wed, Jan 14 206 Portland W 67 - 63 43% +0  47% 4 - 14 1 - 6 C- -2 D- -7 C- B D+ B +6 A- A D+
 Wed, Jan 21 13 @Gonzaga L 60 - 84 1% -15  0% 4 - 15 1 - 7 C- -2 D -4 D+ C+ C- C+ +2 A+ F F+
 Sat, Jan 24 125 @Washington St. L 79 - 95 12% -12  0% 4 - 16 1 - 8 D -11 C+ +3 A F F F -13 F F D+
 Wed, Jan 28 216 San Diego L 88 - 92 OT 44% +3  75% 4 - 17 1 - 9 D -10 D+ -2 D+ F+ A+ D -7 A F D
 Wed, Feb 4 132 @Seattle L 81 - 83 13% -1  37% 4 - 18 1 - 10 C+ +3 B +7 C+ B+ B D+ -4 C- D C+
 Sat, Feb 7 115 Pacific L 59 - 92 23% -14  5% 4 - 19 1 - 11 F -33 F -18 D F C- F -14 F F F
 Wed, Feb 11 40 @St. Mary's L 60 - 88 2% -16  1% 4 - 20 1 - 12 D- -12 F+ -8 D- C D+ C- -3 F D A
 Sat, Feb 14 151 Loyola Marymount L 68 - 73 32%
 Wed, Feb 18 206 @Portland L 68 - 76 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 178 @Oregon St. L 66 - 75 18%
 Wed, Feb 25 132 Seattle L 64 - 70 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 125 Washington St. L 72 - 79 26%
Totals 5 - 24 2 - 16 -8 D -6 D+ D D+ C- -2 C D+ C



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D D+ C- D+ D+ 36% 23% 41% C- D+ C- D- D D+ C- B+ C C- C C- C+ C 42% 14% 44% D- C C- C- D+ C B C B
1.01 55% 36% 32% -3 0 0.95 28% 0.9 .25 19% .29 77% .22 1.11 58% 40% 33% 0 +1 1.03 32% 1.1 .35 17% .26 72% .21
Nov
7		 UCLA C+ D- D F F+ 35% 13% 52% B+ D- A+ A A+ C+ D+ A+ B+ B- C+ F A+ A 38% 16% 47% F B+ F C D- B F B F
1.00 50% 33% 25% -10 +1 0.83 42% 1.1 .47 19% .26 100% .26 1.18 59% 71% 24% -2 +1 1.00 41% 1.2 .47 16% .49 73% .36
Nov
15		 Northern Colorado F F+ A F D 46% 22% 32% C D B- F F C- A F B- C B- F C+ C+ 43% 13% 44% D- C F+ B- D+ A+ F D+ F
0.98 48% 50% 25% -6 0 0.90 30% 0.6 .18 13% .42 67% .28 1.07 57% 57% 33% +1 +1 1.07 34% 1.0 .34 24% .40 76% .30
Nov
18		 New Orleans B- B- B C+ B 40% 24% 36% D+ B- D F F A+ B+ A+ A+ C A+ F F B 51% 4% 45% F C D C+ C- A- D- B+ D+
1.22 59% 46% 35% +3 0 1.07 31% 0.7 .22 8% .41 89% .37 1.07 40% 50% 41% -4 +3 1.00 38% 1.0 .38 23% .42 71% .30
Nov
21		 Stephen F. Austin F F D+ B- D+ 38% 24% 38% D+ D+ F+ B D F D+ A+ B A- C F A+ A+ 33% 11% 56% F A C+ F F B- A+ F A+
0.89 41% 36% 35% -6 -1 0.89 21% 1.2 .25 22% .27 93% .25 0.94 56% 50% 23% -9 +1 0.85 31% 1.5 .47 15% .02 100% .02
Nov
26		 Fresno St. F F F F F 30% 24% 46% D F A+ F C- F F+ D+ F+ D+ F A+ B- D+ 44% 7% 48% F D A F F+ F A+ A+ A+
0.77 47% 25% 22% -15 -1 0.70 40% 0.7 .29 25% .19 70% .14 1.11 75% 0% 31% +2 +2 1.11 22% 1.7 .38 10% .16 50% .08
Nov
29		 Cal St. Fullerton D B- F F F 36% 15% 49% C F F B+ D- C+ A+ A+ A+ D- F+ D+ B+ C- 37% 17% 46% C- C- F F F D- A+ B A+
0.98 65% 29% 22% -8 +1 0.87 18% 1.2 .21 18% .45 88% .40 1.18 68% 40% 30% +1 0 1.05 33% 1.2 .41 13% .15 67% .10
Dec
2		 Abilene Christian D- B+ F B- D- 44% 17% 39% C D D- F F A B B- B+ F D+ F+ C- F+ 33% 24% 43% C+ D- B- F D+ F F D F
1.02 67% 0% 38% -1 +1 1.02 23% 0.7 .15 18% .49 76% .37 1.15 60% 45% 35% +3 -1 1.07 30% 1.1 .33 13% .43 74% .32
Dec
6		 Vermont F D+ F D- F 28% 15% 58% C+ F D+ F F F A- A+ A+ C D- A+ D D+ 38% 6% 56% F D+ C+ A+ A- B- B+ A+ A-
0.90 55% 17% 30% -7 0 0.88 24% 0.5 .12 19% .40 85% .34 1.04 67% 0% 37% +4 +2 1.13 23% 0.6 .13 18% .21 64% .14
Dec
13		 Cal St. Bakersfield D B- A+ A- A- 44% 19% 38% C B+ C- F F F C D C- B+ A- C A+ A+ 40% 24% 36% F+ A- F A+ A+ B F F F
1.04 62% 56% 39% +8 +1 1.19 35% 0.2 .06 22% .36 68% .25 0.92 44% 36% 19% -14 0 0.73 40% 0.4 .18 22% .48 96% .46
Dec
18		 Long Beach St. C+ A+ A+ C A+ 29% 29% 43% F+ A D A+ A F F B+ F D C- A- F F 50% 33% 17% D F A+ F C F+ D D- D-
1.12 86% 57% 33% +13 -2 1.24 24% 2.0 .48 26% .19 80% .15 1.16 62% 29% 67% +7 -1 1.15 17% 1.6 .28 13% .31 79% .25
Dec
20		 Rice C+ D- D A+ A 31% 20% 49% B- A C+ C C+ F D A C A A+ B- A+ A+ 51% 13% 36% F A+ D C+ C- C+ F C F+
1.19 53% 30% 54% +12 -1 1.24 34% 1.0 .34 23% .29 81% .24 0.88 42% 33% 18% -18 +2 0.70 40% 0.9 .36 18% .38 68% .26
Dec
28		 Gonzaga F F D F F 34% 32% 34% C F+ C+ A B C+ A- D B F F A+ F D 42% 25% 33% D+ D C- A B C- C- D D+
0.79 41% 31% 24% -13 -2 0.72 24% 1.1 .27 20% .35 65% .23 1.36 79% 29% 42% +11 0 1.23 38% 1.0 .38 13% .31 74% .23
Dec
30		 St. Mary's F C- D+ F F+ 35% 19% 46% B- D- C- C- C- F F B- F C- F+ D- B+ C- 47% 19% 34% D+ C- A+ F B C A+ F A
0.73 53% 33% 18% -13 0 0.75 22% 0.9 .19 21% .08 75% .06 1.17 68% 44% 31% +5 +1 1.13 28% 1.3 .36 16% .19 100% .19
Jan
2		 Santa Clara F D F D F+ 40% 23% 36% D+ F+ D+ B- C- F B+ C B+ B+ F F B+ C- 41% 12% 47% D C- A+ A+ A+ C+ B A- B+
0.84 53% 18% 29% -9 0 0.83 27% 1.1 .30 25% .40 73% .29 1.10 75% 57% 30% +6 +1 1.17 26% 0.7 .18 16% .19 67% .13
Jan
4		 Pacific C F A+ C B- 26% 35% 39% D- C+ C- D- D+ C- F+ A+ C+ C B- A+ F D+ 36% 19% 45% C D+ C- F F A+ C+ F C-
1.04 36% 58% 33% +1 -3 0.98 24% 0.9 .21 17% .27 93% .25 1.11 53% 25% 47% +5 0 1.12 36% 1.8 .64 27% .27 85% .23
Jan
8		 San Diego F A+ F F D- 32% 17% 51% D+ D- F F F D- A+ D+ A+ F+ C- F F F 40% 19% 42% D F D+ F+ D- D+ B- A B
0.94 77% 29% 24% -3 0 0.95 23% 0.9 .19 22% .56 69% .38 1.23 62% 60% 45% +13 0 1.28 32% 1.1 .36 16% .21 67% .14
Jan
10		 San Francisco F C F F F 33% 33% 33% F+ F C+ F D+ A A+ C A+ D- D+ F F+ F 36% 8% 57% D- F F A+ C B A+ A+ A+
0.91 56% 25% 13% -16 -2 0.67 28% 0.8 .22 9% .48 72% .35 1.21 63% 50% 40% +8 +1 1.21 44% 0.8 .36 18% .18 50% .09
Jan
14		 Portland D- B- F+ D- D+ 36% 18% 45% C C- D A+ B D+ A- F C B D- A+ A+ A 38% 9% 53% D- A- D A+ A D+ A+ A A+
0.99 63% 25% 30% -3 0 0.95 27% 1.4 .39 19% .37 60% .22 0.93 67% 20% 21% -9 +1 0.87 34% 0.7 .24 18% .16 67% .11
Jan
21		 Gonzaga D D A+ F D+ 31% 33% 37% C- D+ B- D+ C+ C- D+ A+ B+ C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 46% 20% 34% F A+ C- F F F+ F C- F
0.86 50% 53% 16% -7 -2 0.83 27% 0.8 .22 22% .26 93% .24 1.21 62% 27% 21% -7 +1 0.89 38% 1.5 .56 10% .38 71% .27
Jan
24		 Washington St. C+ B- A+ B- A+ 31% 37% 33% F A D+ F F F D+ A+ C+ F F D+ F F 31% 13% 56% C F F C F D+ B C B
1.11 63% 63% 35% +11 -3 1.19 23% 0.7 .15 21% .27 87% .23 1.34 76% 43% 43% +14 0 1.31 41% 1.0 .41 17% .25 73% .19
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 San Diego D+ D- D B+ C- 36% 19% 46% C- D+ D+ F F+ A+ A D+ B+ D A+ F C- A+ 46% 7% 47% F A F F F D F F F
1.10 52% 36% 37% 0 0 1.02 33% 0.9 .28 14% .42 69% .29 1.15 33% 50% 36% -9 +2 0.88 37% 1.3 .49 15% .37 88% .32
Feb
4		 Seattle B F+ C- A C+ 39% 25% 35% D+ C+ C- A+ B+ B A+ A+ A+ D+ F C A+ C- 49% 21% 30% C C- C+ F D C+ F D F
1.06 45% 38% 39% -2 -1 0.96 29% 1.3 .38 18% .42 88% .37 1.08 69% 36% 25% +1 +1 1.06 23% 1.1 .27 18% .50 74% .37
Feb
7		 Pacific F F D A+ D+ 34% 34% 32% D+ D F F F C- C+ F D F A- F F F 41% 23% 36% C F A F F F B D B-
0.81 39% 33% 41% -5 -2 0.89 10% 0.3 .03 17% .35 57% .20 1.27 48% 54% 55% +11 0 1.23 27% 1.8 .47 14% .24 80% .19
Feb
11		 St. Mary's F+ D F D- F+ 38% 20% 42% B- D- C+ D+ C D+ D F F+ C- A+ F F F 32% 20% 48% B- F F B+ D A D- A+ B+
0.84 48% 8% 28% -14 0 0.75 26% 0.8 .22 17% .20 58% .12 1.23 44% 50% 54% +12 0 1.26 49% 0.9 .46 21% .39 59% .23



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.4 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 1.1 1.2 2.3 11th
12th 24.5 37.5 26.2 8.6 0.5 97.2 12th
Total 24.5 37.5 26.2 9.7 2.0 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12 0.1% 0.1
5-13 2.0% 2.0
4-14 9.7% 9.7
3-15 26.2% 26.2
2-16 37.5% 37.5
1-17 24.5% 24.5
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 24.5%