Pepperdine
West Coast
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#226
Expected Predictive Rating-4.6#245
Pace70.8#123
Improvement+2.6#38

Offense
Total Offense-2.1#233
First Shot+1.7#129
After Offensive Rebound-3.8#351
Layup/Dunks-0.9#212
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.5#13
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#242
Freethrows+0.2#162
Improvement+0.3#157

Defense
Total Defense-1.3#209
First Shot-0.9#197
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#215
Layups/Dunks+0.5#151
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#240
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#190
Freethrows-1.0#252
Improvement+2.3#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.8 n/a
.500 or above 4.5% 5.9% 1.3%
.500 or above in Conference 10.4% 11.7% 7.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 10.8% 9.4% 14.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Long Beach St. (Home) - 69.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 21 - 61 - 12
Quad 32 - 33 - 15
Quad 49 - 411 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 328   Western Illinois W 77-64 81%     1 - 0 +0.1 +0.1 +0.4
  Nov 09, 2024 95   @ UC San Diego L 76-94 13%     1 - 1 -9.3 +5.3 -14.1
  Nov 16, 2024 63   @ UC Irvine L 62-80 9%     1 - 2 -6.3 -0.8 -5.5
  Nov 20, 2024 113   @ UNLV L 59-80 17%     1 - 3 -14.5 -6.1 -10.3
  Nov 22, 2024 59   @ Northwestern L 50-68 8%     1 - 4 -5.8 -11.8 +5.0
  Nov 26, 2024 278   Cal St. Fullerton L 63-72 71%     1 - 5 -18.1 -6.8 -12.2
  Nov 29, 2024 199   New Mexico St. W 82-70 43%     2 - 5 +10.2 +4.5 +5.0
  Nov 30, 2024 208   Weber St. L 53-68 46%     2 - 6 -17.4 -21.9 +4.3
  Dec 07, 2024 287   Grambling St. W 85-57 73%     3 - 6 +18.3 +8.7 +9.7
  Dec 14, 2024 286   Northern Arizona W 86-76 73%     4 - 6 +0.3 +5.8 -5.6
  Dec 19, 2024 272   Long Beach St. W 72-67 70%    
  Dec 21, 2024 184   UC Davis W 72-71 53%    
  Dec 28, 2024 78   @ Santa Clara L 67-81 10%    
  Dec 30, 2024 3   Gonzaga L 66-87 3%    
  Jan 02, 2025 41   @ St. Mary's L 58-76 5%    
  Jan 04, 2025 264   @ Pacific L 71-72 47%    
  Jan 11, 2025 189   Loyola Marymount W 71-70 53%    
  Jan 16, 2025 56   San Francisco L 66-76 18%    
  Jan 18, 2025 41   St. Mary's L 61-73 14%    
  Jan 23, 2025 67   @ Oregon St. L 62-77 9%    
  Jan 25, 2025 264   Pacific W 74-69 68%    
  Jan 30, 2025 315   @ San Diego W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 01, 2025 312   Portland W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 08, 2025 68   @ Washington St. L 68-82 10%    
  Feb 13, 2025 315   San Diego W 77-69 77%    
  Feb 15, 2025 3   @ Gonzaga L 63-90 1%    
  Feb 20, 2025 67   Oregon St. L 65-74 22%    
  Feb 22, 2025 189   @ Loyola Marymount L 68-73 32%    
  Feb 27, 2025 312   @ Portland W 74-72 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 68   Washington St. L 71-79 23%    
Projected Record 11 - 19 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.4 3.2 0.9 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 5.4 9.1 6.1 1.5 0.1 23.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 8.8 10.9 4.9 0.9 0.0 27.1 8th
9th 0.0 1.5 7.8 7.6 2.2 0.2 0.0 19.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.2 5.0 4.3 0.7 0.0 11.4 10th
11th 0.2 1.1 2.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.4 11th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.6 8.1 13.8 18.1 18.6 15.6 10.6 6.0 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
14-4 25.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 2.2% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.1% 0.1
12-6 0.4% 0.4
11-7 1.1% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 1.1
10-8 2.7% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 2.7
9-9 6.0% 6.0
8-10 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 10.6
7-11 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 15.6
6-12 18.6% 18.6
5-13 18.1% 18.1
4-14 13.8% 13.8
3-15 8.1% 8.1
2-16 3.6% 3.6
1-17 1.1% 1.1
0-18 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%