Pepperdine
West Coast
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -6.6 #279
Expected Predictive Rating -8.2 #301
Pace 67.3 #228
Improvement -1.0 #242

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #325 D D D- C C-
Defense #186 C C- C B+ F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #247 1.12 #229 -2.1 #256
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #150 0.72 #226 +0.1 #170
Three Pointers 42% #162 0.91 #308 -1.8 #247
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #284 -3.8 #284
Freethrows 16.6 #248 78% #17 12.9 #171
Second Chance 28.9% #234 0.91 #333 0.26 #296
Turnovers 18.7% #315
Total Offense -6.1 #325

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #86 1.18 #205 -2.5 #263
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #361 0.73 #133 +3.0 #7
Three Pointers 45% #72 0.94 #88 -0.4 #195
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #178 +0.1 #177
Freethrows 14.5 #37 73% #216 10.6 #47
Second Chance 31.2% #208 1.08 #232 0.34 #227
Turnovers 16.4% #186
Total Defense -0.5 #186

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.7% #232 2.4% #356
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.8% #287 -2.6% #136
Possession Length 18.3 #269 17.2 #166
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.10 #351 0.16 #152
Improvement -1.2 #255 +0.2 #174

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 80.3% 61.8% 83.7%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Washington St. (Away) - 15.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 5
Quad 20 - 30 - 8
Quad 32 - 102 - 18
Quad 45 - 57 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 36 @UCLA L 63 - 74 3% -10  0 - 1 +5 +5 D A+ C -0 B+ F B-
 Sat, Nov 15 185 Northern Colorado L 81 - 88 OT 43% -5  0 - 2 -12 -8 F F C- -3 C D A+
 Tue, Nov 18 235 New Orleans W 90 - 79 52% +6  1 - 2 +4 +5 B F A+ -2 C C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 105 Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 63 22% +3  1 - 3 -2 -7 D+ D+ F +6 A F B-
 Wed, Nov 26 143 Fresno St. L 53 - 76 23% -7  1 - 4 -22 -15 F C+ F -7 D+ F F
 Sat, Nov 29 229 @Cal St. Fullerton L 69 - 83 29% -5  1 - 5 -15 -3 F F C -11 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 2 258 Abilene Christian L 63 - 71 56% -8  1 - 6 -16 -4 F F B -13 F D+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 204 Vermont L 56 - 65 47% -1  1 - 7 -15 -14 F F F -2 D+ A+ A-
 Sat, Dec 13 299 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 70 - 62 43% +4  2 - 7 +3 -1 A- F F +5 A+ A+ B
 Thu, Dec 18 250 @Long Beach St. L 78 - 81 32% +2  2 - 8 -5 +5 A+ A+ F -9 F C F
 Sat, Dec 20 239 Rice W 84 - 62 53% +8  3 - 8 +15 +6 A+ C+ F +8 A+ D B-
 Sun, Dec 28 6 Gonzaga L 56 - 96 2% -22  3 - 9 0 - 1 -22 -10 F B C+ -12 D+ B C-
 Tue, Dec 30 42 St. Mary's L 45 - 72 8% -12  3 - 10 0 - 2 -18 -17 F C- F -5 D+ B+ C
 Fri, Jan 2 54 @Santa Clara L 63 - 82 4% -7  3 - 11 0 - 3 -6 -8 F D+ F +3 D- A+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 132 @Pacific L 69 - 74 15% -3  3 - 12 0 - 4 -0 +1 C D- D+ -2 D+ F A+
 Thu, Jan 8 209 @San Diego L 63 - 83 26% -12  3 - 13 0 - 5 -20 -8 D- F F -13 F D C-
 Sat, Jan 10 101 San Francisco L 60 - 80 21% -12  3 - 14 0 - 6 -18 -9 F D A+ -11 F B- B-
 Wed, Jan 14 210 Portland W 67 - 63 48% +0  4 - 14 1 - 6 -2 -5 C- B D- +3 A A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 21 6 @Gonzaga L 60 - 84 1% -15  4 - 15 1 - 7 -0 -2 C C D +1 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 141 @Washington St. L 67 - 78 16%
 Wed, Jan 28 209 San Diego L 73 - 74 48%
 Wed, Feb 4 121 @Seattle L 60 - 72 12%
 Sat, Feb 7 132 Pacific L 67 - 72 30%
 Wed, Feb 11 42 @St. Mary's L 57 - 79 2%
 Sat, Feb 14 155 Loyola Marymount L 65 - 69 36%
 Wed, Feb 18 210 @Portland L 68 - 74 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 195 @Oregon St. L 65 - 72 25%
 Wed, Feb 25 121 Seattle L 63 - 69 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 141 Washington St. L 70 - 75 33%
Totals 7 - 22 4 - 14 -7 -6 D D D- -1 C C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 0.1 1.5 7th
8th 0.1 2.1 0.6 2.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.7 3.2 0.2 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 6.3 1.4 8.9 10th
11th 0.0 1.7 9.0 5.9 0.1 16.7 11th
12th 6.3 19.0 24.2 13.2 1.3 63.9 12th
Total 6.3 19.0 25.9 23.4 15.2 7.0 2.5 0.6 0.1 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.1% 0.1
8-10 0.6% 0.6
7-11 2.5% 2.5
6-12 7.0% 7.0
5-13 15.2% 15.2
4-14 23.4% 23.4
3-15 25.9% 25.9
2-16 19.0% 19.0
1-17 6.3% 6.3
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 6.3%