West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
9 Gonzaga 97.9%   8   24 - 8 14 - 4 25 - 8 14 - 4 +18.8      +12.1 8 +6.7 33 74.1 48 +12.9 42 +12.0 2
26 St. Mary's 99.0%   7   27 - 4 17 - 1 27 - 5 17 - 1 +14.8      +5.9 55 +8.9 13 58.2 359 +16.6 20 +23.7 1
56 Santa Clara 1.8%   20 - 12 12 - 6 20 - 12 12 - 6 +10.1      +6.1 50 +3.9 73 71.5 84 +6.4 82 +8.9 4
67 San Francisco 1.8%   23 - 9 13 - 5 23 - 9 13 - 5 +8.2      +3.1 94 +5.1 54 68.7 156 +10.4 53 +11.6 3
89 Oregon St. 0.0%   19 - 12 10 - 8 19 - 12 10 - 8 +5.9      +6.7 42 -0.9 197 61.6 341 +4.5 103 +4.7 5
120 Washington St. 0.0%   19 - 14 8 - 10 19 - 14 8 - 10 +2.6      +3.3 88 -0.7 191 75.0 31 +5.0 98 +0.7 7
157 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   16 - 15 8 - 10 16 - 15 8 - 10 +0.2      -1.8 220 +2.0 111 67.5 197 +1.8 137 +1.1 6
217 Pepperdine 0.0%   12 - 22 4 - 14 12 - 22 4 - 14 -3.0      -0.1 178 -2.9 266 71.6 80 -4.3 239 -7.5 10
273 Portland 0.0%   10 - 20 7 - 11 10 - 20 7 - 11 -6.3      -0.6 200 -5.6 332 69.7 125 -4.9 249 -0.6 8
292 Pacific 0.0%   7 - 24 4 - 14 7 - 24 4 - 14 -7.6      -3.8 274 -3.8 284 66.6 218 -9.0 311 -6.7 9
312 San Diego 0.0%   5 - 26 2 - 16 5 - 27 2 - 16 -9.0      -5.2 309 -3.9 287 76.0 21 -12.2 340 -11.9 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Gonzaga 2.0 100.0
St. Mary's 1.0 100.0
Santa Clara 4.0 100.0
San Francisco 3.0 100.0
Oregon St. 5.0 100.0
Washington St. 6.0 100.0
Loyola Marymount 6.0 100.0
Pepperdine 9.0 100.0
Portland 8.0 100.0
Pacific 9.0 100.0
San Diego 11.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 14 - 4 100.0
St. Mary's 17 - 1 100.0
Santa Clara 12 - 6 100.0
San Francisco 13 - 5 100.0
Oregon St. 10 - 8 100.0
Washington St. 8 - 10 100.0
Loyola Marymount 8 - 10 100.0
Pepperdine 4 - 14 100.0
Portland 7 - 11 100.0
Pacific 4 - 14 100.0
San Diego 2 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga
St. Mary's 100.0% 100.0
Santa Clara
San Francisco
Oregon St.
Washington St.
Loyola Marymount
Pepperdine
Portland
Pacific
San Diego


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 97.9% 65.9% 32.0% 8   0.3 1.7 6.1 14.5 24.1 29.6 16.4 5.0 0.3 2.1 93.8%
St. Mary's 99.0% 34.1% 64.9% 7   0.3 4.9 13.4 16.7 17.1 23.4 17.9 5.1 0.4 0.0 1.0 98.5%
Santa Clara 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 1.3 0.5 98.2 1.8%
San Francisco 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 1.1 0.7 98.2 1.8%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 97.9% 0.2% 97.8% 72.5% 30.9% 16.8% 7.7% 3.2% 1.0%
St. Mary's 99.0% 0.0% 99.0% 66.5% 24.6% 8.1% 2.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Santa Clara 1.8% 1.8% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 1.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.0 2.9 93.7 3.3 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 3.1 95.5 1.4
2nd Round 91.9% 1.4 8.1 44.5 47.2 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 48.7% 0.6 51.3 41.7 7.0 0.0
Elite Eight 23.8% 0.2 76.2 22.6 1.2
Final Four 10.1% 0.1 89.9 9.9 0.2
Final Game 3.8% 0.0 96.2 3.8 0.0
Champion 1.2% 0.0 98.9 1.2