West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Gonzaga 100.0%   2   12 - 1 0 - 0 29 - 2 17 - 1 +21.5      +12.6 5 +9.0 12 74.3 59 +26.8 6 0.0 1
44 St. Mary's 37.7%   10 - 2 0 - 0 23 - 7 13 - 5 +11.7      +4.4 72 +7.3 23 66.6 254 +13.8 38 0.0 1
86 Santa Clara 4.6%   8 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 11 11 - 7 +6.6      +4.0 79 +2.6 101 71.4 129 +7.6 81 0.0 1
95 San Francisco 2.6%   7 - 5 0 - 0 17 - 13 10 - 8 +5.8      +4.0 83 +1.9 112 65.1 299 +4.1 110 0.0 1
112 Seattle 1.1%   9 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 9 - 9 +3.5      -0.8 186 +4.2 66 70.2 163 +7.7 79 0.0 1
123 Loyola Marymount 0.5%   8 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +2.4      -2.4 231 +4.8 54 67.7 232 +2.2 138 0.0 1
138 Pacific 0.4%   7 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.7      +1.0 137 +0.7 141 66.4 265 +3.8 113 0.0 1
149 Washington St. 0.2%   4 - 8 0 - 0 12 - 18 8 - 10 +0.8      +0.8 141 0.0 166 70.5 153 -2.7 207 0.0 1
154 Oregon St. 0.2%   7 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 16 8 - 10 +0.4      +0.3 156 +0.1 158 64.1 317 -0.6 174 0.0 1
256 Portland 0.0%   5 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 19 5 - 13 -5.3      -3.5 265 -1.8 227 73.7 69 -2.3 197 0.0 1
260 San Diego 0.0%   3 - 7 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -5.5      -2.1 224 -3.4 292 75.1 47 -7.6 279 0.0 1
262 Pepperdine 0.0%   3 - 8 0 - 0 7 - 22 4 - 14 -5.6      -4.9 299 -0.8 193 68.0 226 -8.7 304 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Dec 20 174 Mercer 78 149 Washington St. 84   
Sat, Dec 20 262 Pepperdine 84 231 Rice 62   
Sat, Dec 20 270 Loyola Chicago 80 86 Santa Clara 78   
Sun, Dec 21 6 Gonzaga 91 56 Oregon 82   
Sun, Dec 21 71 Arizona St. 75 154 Oregon St. 78   
Sun, Dec 21 234 Nicholls St. 82 138 Pacific 95   
Sun, Dec 21 360 Morgan St. 64 95 San Francisco 94   
Mon, Dec 22 44 St. Mary's 63 93 Northern Iowa 58   
Mon, Dec 22 256 Portland 61 150 UC Santa Barbara 79   
Mon, Dec 22 112 Seattle 71 287 Texas San Antonio 68   
Mon, Dec 22 260 San Diego 56 48 Washington 86   
Tue, Dec 23 123 Loyola Marymount 83 360 Morgan St. 56   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 28 95 San Francisco 70 112 Seattle 71 52%   
Sun, Dec 28 123 Loyola Marymount 63 44 St. Mary's 70 73%   
Sun, Dec 28 154 Oregon St. 71 86 Santa Clara 74 62%   
Sun, Dec 28 256 Portland 75 149 Washington St. 78 62%   
Sun, Dec 28 138 Pacific 78 260 San Diego 74 66%   
Sun, Dec 28 6 Gonzaga 87 262 Pepperdine 63 98%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Gonzaga 1.1 94.6 4.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 2.5 10.1 58.5 17.4 7.5 3.6 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Santa Clara 4.4 1.2 16.1 24.0 19.2 14.1 9.9 6.9 4.4 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.1
San Francisco 4.7 0.8 12.6 20.3 18.4 15.0 12.2 9.0 5.7 3.6 1.6 0.7 0.1
Seattle 5.6 0.3 6.5 13.5 15.4 16.0 14.5 12.1 9.3 6.4 3.7 1.6 0.6
Loyola Marymount 6.0 0.2 5.8 12.3 13.5 13.8 13.9 12.5 11.3 8.6 4.9 2.3 0.9
Pacific 5.8 0.1 6.4 13.2 14.3 14.1 14.0 12.2 10.4 7.3 4.4 2.5 1.0
Washington St. 7.0 0.1 2.1 5.5 8.9 11.3 13.4 14.8 14.8 12.8 8.9 5.2 2.2
Oregon St. 7.2 0.0 1.8 6.0 8.6 10.6 12.2 13.9 14.5 14.2 9.9 5.8 2.4
Portland 10.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.1 5.1 8.5 13.4 20.0 23.7 23.3
San Diego 9.8 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.6 5.7 9.1 13.9 19.4 23.2 21.6
Pepperdine 10.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.6 4.6 7.8 12.7 19.3 24.4 26.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 17 - 1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 6.8 18.5 35.5 36.5
St. Mary's 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.3 8.4 13.9 18.7 20.7 17.5 9.9 3.2 0.4
Santa Clara 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.7 8.2 12.3 15.9 17.6 15.3 11.6 6.6 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.3 6.4 10.6 14.0 16.6 17.0 13.3 9.1 4.9 1.9 0.5 0.1
Seattle 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.4 6.4 10.6 14.0 16.2 16.0 13.2 9.4 5.4 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
Loyola Marymount 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.3 4.8 8.2 12.2 14.2 15.7 14.5 11.4 8.0 4.4 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
Pacific 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.1 4.3 7.6 11.0 14.2 15.1 15.1 12.1 8.6 5.1 2.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
Washington St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.3 5.1 8.6 12.6 15.6 16.8 14.6 10.9 7.0 3.5 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
Oregon St. 8 - 10 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 5.6 9.4 13.2 15.7 15.9 13.6 10.0 6.5 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Portland 5 - 13 1.1 4.6 10.2 15.9 18.3 17.8 13.6 9.1 5.2 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Diego 5 - 13 1.0 4.2 9.5 15.0 17.9 17.2 13.9 10.0 6.1 3.0 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Pepperdine 4 - 14 1.2 5.4 11.6 16.8 18.5 17.2 13.0 8.3 4.5 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 94.6% 87.7 6.5 0.3 0.0
St. Mary's 10.1% 4.5 5.3 0.3 0.0
Santa Clara 1.2% 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0
San Francisco 0.8% 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Seattle 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Loyola Marymount 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Pacific 0.1% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portland
San Diego
Pepperdine


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 79.4% 20.6% 2   22.4 25.7 20.0 15.8 8.7 4.5 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
St. Mary's 37.7% 13.7% 24.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.3 4.7 9.6 17.3 0.9 0.0 62.3 27.8%
Santa Clara 4.6% 2.7% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 3.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 95.4 2.0%
San Francisco 2.6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.6 0.5 0.0 97.4 0.5%
Seattle 1.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 98.9 0.2%
Loyola Marymount 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Pacific 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.3% 70.0% 42.0% 23.0% 11.9% 5.7%
St. Mary's 37.7% 13.7% 31.6% 14.1% 3.5% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Santa Clara 4.6% 1.5% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 2.6% 0.4% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 1.1% 0.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 54.7 43.4 1.9 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 61.3 37.5 1.2 0.0
2nd Round 96.5% 1.1 3.5 81.8 14.7 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 71.4% 0.7 28.6 69.0 2.5 0.0
Elite Eight 42.8% 0.4 57.2 42.4 0.4
Final Four 23.2% 0.2 76.8 23.1 0.0
Final Game 12.0% 0.1 88.0 12.0 0.0
Champion 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.7