West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Gonzaga 98.9%   3   8 - 3 0 - 0 26 - 5 16 - 2 +20.1      +12.7 3 +7.3 16 72.5 88 +15.0 30 0.0 1
43 St. Mary's 38.0%   9 - 2 0 - 0 22 - 8 12 - 6 +10.8      +5.2 52 +5.6 42 59.9 355 +12.4 44 0.0 1
59 San Francisco 13.8%   8 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 9 12 - 6 +9.3      +2.2 117 +7.1 19 68.3 199 +8.4 73 0.0 1
65 Oregon St. 11.1%   7 - 2 0 - 0 20 - 8 12 - 6 +8.7      +3.2 89 +5.5 44 63.6 313 +7.6 85 0.0 1
72 Santa Clara 6.7%   7 - 5 0 - 0 19 - 12 11 - 7 +7.6      +4.7 59 +2.9 99 70.5 135 +5.7 95 0.0 1
77 Washington St. 8.3%   9 - 3 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +7.1      +3.1 92 +4.0 76 75.5 38 +10.5 55 0.0 1
165 Loyola Marymount 0.2%   6 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 7 - 11 -0.5      -1.6 215 +1.1 136 66.0 259 +2.7 126 0.0 1
237 Pepperdine 0.0%   4 - 7 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 12 -4.1      -2.3 238 -1.9 229 71.5 108 -6.9 285 0.0 1
277 Pacific 0.0%   3 - 8 0 - 0 8 - 22 5 - 13 -6.3      -4.9 307 -1.4 214 70.3 146 -8.5 306 0.0 1
319 San Diego 0.0%   2 - 8 0 - 0 6 - 24 4 - 14 -8.8      -7.5 352 -1.3 210 76.0 31 -13.6 344 0.0 1
325 Portland 0.0%   2 - 8 0 - 0 6 - 23 3 - 15 -9.3      -5.2 318 -4.2 305 70.8 124 -10.2 321 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Gonzaga 1.2 86.8 9.7 2.4 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 3.2 9.5 31.0 22.2 16.4 11.3 6.8 2.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 3.7 5.4 22.6 21.2 18.4 15.9 11.1 4.4 1.0 0.2 0.0
Oregon St. 3.6 6.2 24.0 22.6 19.1 14.7 9.3 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0
Santa Clara 4.4 2.7 13.5 16.9 19.1 19.3 18.4 7.7 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Washington St. 4.2 2.7 14.8 18.6 20.7 19.9 15.9 5.7 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 6.9 0.1 0.8 2.3 4.4 9.0 18.0 34.4 18.0 8.5 3.5 1.1
Pepperdine 8.2 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.4 7.1 20.0 30.3 21.1 12.0 5.8
Pacific 8.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 3.6 12.2 23.9 27.0 19.6 12.0
San Diego 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.4 6.1 14.7 22.4 28.2 26.7
Portland 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 4.5 12.3 21.0 28.5 32.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 16 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.9 7.2 15.0 24.7 29.5 19.4
St. Mary's 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.2 4.9 9.1 14.1 17.8 18.4 15.8 10.2 4.7 1.4 0.3
San Francisco 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 4.4 7.9 13.2 16.6 18.0 16.0 11.6 6.3 2.6 0.6 0.1
Oregon St. 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 3.6 6.9 12.0 16.3 18.4 17.3 12.7 6.9 2.9 0.8 0.1
Santa Clara 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.0 7.9 12.5 16.5 18.3 16.1 11.6 6.6 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0
Washington St. 11 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.9 6.2 11.5 16.5 18.9 17.7 13.1 7.6 3.2 0.9 0.2 0.0
Loyola Marymount 7 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.1 5.4 9.8 14.4 17.9 17.6 14.5 9.2 5.1 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Pepperdine 6 - 12 0.2 1.2 4.3 9.3 15.1 18.8 18.7 14.5 9.5 5.1 2.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Pacific 5 - 13 0.7 3.4 9.0 15.5 19.6 19.2 14.8 9.5 5.0 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
San Diego 4 - 14 2.6 9.5 17.4 21.2 19.5 14.0 8.6 4.4 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Portland 3 - 15 3.5 11.9 19.3 22.7 18.3 12.9 6.9 3.0 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 86.8% 76.3 9.1 1.3 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 9.5% 4.6 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 5.4% 2.5 2.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Oregon St. 6.2% 2.9 2.6 0.7 0.1 0.0
Santa Clara 2.7% 1.1 1.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
Washington St. 2.7% 1.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine
Pacific
San Diego 0.0% 0.0
Portland


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 98.9% 69.6% 29.3% 3   18.3 19.0 15.0 14.2 9.7 7.6 5.8 4.1 2.8 1.8 0.5 0.0 1.1 96.5%
St. Mary's 38.0% 10.2% 27.9% 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.9 1.5 2.1 3.5 5.5 9.3 12.8 1.1 0.0 62.0 31.0%
San Francisco 13.8% 6.6% 7.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.9 6.7 1.1 0.0 86.2 7.7%
Oregon St. 11.1% 6.3% 4.7% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.9 2.0 5.6 1.4 0.0 88.9 5.1%
Santa Clara 6.7% 3.9% 2.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 3.5 0.9 0.0 0.0 93.3 2.9%
Washington St. 8.3% 3.2% 5.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 4.4 0.9 0.0 91.7 5.2%
Loyola Marymount 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 98.9% 0.5% 98.8% 89.5% 63.9% 40.2% 24.1% 13.8% 7.7%
St. Mary's 38.0% 11.1% 32.8% 16.3% 5.3% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
San Francisco 13.8% 4.0% 11.9% 5.2% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 11.1% 2.7% 9.8% 4.1% 1.3% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Santa Clara 6.7% 1.6% 5.8% 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 8.3% 3.1% 6.6% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.8 35.9 51.8 11.7 0.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.7 42.9 48.8 8.0 0.3
2nd Round 94.0% 1.2 6.0 69.6 23.2 1.2 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 68.2% 0.7 31.8 63.1 5.0 0.1
Elite Eight 42.5% 0.4 57.5 41.4 1.1 0.0
Final Four 25.1% 0.3 74.9 24.9 0.2
Final Game 14.1% 0.1 85.9 14.1 0.0
Champion 7.8% 0.1 92.2 7.8