West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Gonzaga 100.0%   3   20 - 1 8 - 0 +20.6      +11.2 8 +9.4 12 74.3 51 +26.4 5 +17.4 2
42 St. Mary's 41.3%   17 - 3 7 - 1 +12.1      +5.8 57 +6.3 40 64.4 298 +13.5 38 +13.9 3
54 Santa Clara 22.1%   15 - 5 7 - 1 +10.4      +6.1 54 +4.3 66 71.9 97 +10.7 55 +18.2 1
101 San Francisco 1.0%   12 - 8 5 - 3 +4.7      +2.6 107 +2.1 109 65.1 281 +3.8 107 +3.3 4
121 Seattle 0.3%   12 - 7 3 - 5 +2.7      -3.7 278 +6.4 36 69.5 166 +3.9 106 +0.2 7
132 Pacific 0.1%   11 - 8 4 - 4 +1.7      +1.5 126 +0.2 161 64.9 284 +1.6 134 -0.9 8
141 Washington St. 0.1%   7 - 13 3 - 5 +1.1      +2.4 112 -1.3 216 69.0 178 -1.2 186 +0.4 6
155 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   10 - 11 2 - 7 +0.2      -3.0 255 +3.2 89 68.3 203 -0.4 169 -3.7 11
195 Oregon St. 0.0%   10 - 12 3 - 6 -2.3      -0.5 180 -1.7 230 64.1 309 -1.0 179 -1.4 10
209 San Diego 0.0%   6 - 12 3 - 5 -3.1      -1.2 201 -1.9 237 74.9 43 -5.2 241 +0.7 5
210 Portland 0.0%   8 - 11 3 - 5 -3.1      -2.5 238 -0.7 191 72.0 93 -1.9 201 -1.2 9
279 Pepperdine 0.0%   4 - 15 1 - 7 -6.6      -6.1 325 -0.5 186 67.3 228 -8.2 301 -6.9 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 21 209 San Diego 96 141 Washington St. 92   
Wed, Jan 21 155 Loyola Marymount 59 121 Seattle 69   
Wed, Jan 21 195 Oregon St. 51 42 St. Mary's 81   
Wed, Jan 21 6 Gonzaga 84 279 Pepperdine 60   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 24 132 Pacific 69 121 Seattle 67 58%   
Sat, Jan 24 6 Gonzaga 85 101 San Francisco 66 95%   
Sat, Jan 24 209 San Diego 75 54 Santa Clara 85 84%   
Sat, Jan 24 279 Pepperdine 67 141 Washington St. 78 84%   
Sat, Jan 24 210 Portland 66 42 St. Mary's 78 87%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Gonzaga 1.1 95.0 4.4 0.6 0.0
St. Mary's 2.3 8.5 56.1 34.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
Santa Clara 2.4 6.1 48.6 42.2 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 4.9 0.0 1.0 5.4 45.5 23.0 13.0 6.7 3.5 1.2 0.6 0.1
Seattle 5.8 0.2 2.2 26.8 24.8 17.1 11.9 8.0 4.6 2.8 1.3 0.3
Pacific 5.8 0.0 0.2 2.3 27.7 20.9 18.2 13.3 9.1 4.8 2.3 1.1 0.1
Washington St. 6.5 0.0 0.8 15.2 19.8 19.0 16.3 12.8 8.4 4.8 2.3 0.7
Loyola Marymount 8.2 0.1 4.6 8.1 11.1 14.0 15.2 17.5 14.4 11.8 3.3
Oregon St. 8.7 0.0 1.6 4.4 8.1 11.8 15.6 20.2 19.6 14.7 3.9
San Diego 7.9 0.0 0.2 5.5 9.8 13.1 15.6 15.5 13.9 11.4 12.1 2.9
Portland 8.9 0.0 1.6 4.0 7.4 10.6 14.0 18.8 21.5 17.4 4.6
Pepperdine 11.2 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.8 5.1 8.9 16.7 63.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 17 - 1 29 - 2 0.0 0.1 0.9 5.1 17.8 39.0 37.1
St. Mary's 14 - 4 24 - 6 0.1 0.5 2.4 9.3 20.6 30.0 25.3 10.4 1.4
Santa Clara 14 - 4 22 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.4 5.0 12.3 22.0 26.6 21.4 9.2 1.8
San Francisco 9 - 9 16 - 14 0.2 1.8 7.3 18.0 26.0 24.8 14.8 5.8 1.1 0.2
Seattle 9 - 9 18 - 11 0.0 0.5 2.3 7.1 15.2 23.5 24.0 17.2 7.9 2.2 0.3
Pacific 8 - 10 15 - 14 0.3 2.3 7.5 16.5 23.9 23.4 16.1 7.4 2.2 0.3 0.0
Washington St. 8 - 10 12 - 18 0.2 1.2 4.8 12.9 22.0 25.2 19.5 10.4 3.4 0.5 0.0
Loyola Marymount 6 - 12 14 - 16 0.3 2.1 7.9 16.4 23.8 23.3 16.4 7.5 2.1 0.2
Oregon St. 6 - 12 13 - 18 1.7 9.4 22.2 29.6 21.9 11.4 3.2 0.5 0.0 0.0
San Diego 7 - 11 10 - 19 1.2 6.3 14.7 21.8 23.0 18.2 10.0 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.0
Portland 6 - 12 11 - 18 2.5 11.7 24.5 27.7 20.2 9.7 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Pepperdine 4 - 14 7 - 22 6.3 19.0 25.9 23.4 15.2 7.0 2.5 0.6 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 95.0% 86.4 7.9 0.7
St. Mary's 8.5% 3.0 4.8 0.7
Santa Clara 6.1% 1.7 3.8 0.7
San Francisco 0.0% 0.0
Seattle
Pacific 0.0% 0.0
Washington St.
Loyola Marymount
Oregon St.
San Diego
Portland
Pepperdine


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 100.0% 75.6% 24.4% 3   14.1 19.9 21.6 23.5 13.3 5.8 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
St. Mary's 41.3% 14.0% 27.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.3 5.3 11.4 20.3 0.4 58.7 31.7%
Santa Clara 22.1% 8.8% 13.3% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.5 6.2 11.5 0.3 77.9 14.6%
San Francisco 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.0 0.0%
Seattle 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Pacific 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Washington St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.6 42.1 50.8 7.1 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.5 51.3 44.6 4.1 0.0
2nd Round 96.4% 1.2 3.6 78.0 17.9 0.5
Sweet Sixteen 67.1% 0.7 32.9 64.4 2.7 0.0
Elite Eight 36.7% 0.4 63.3 36.4 0.4
Final Four 19.1% 0.2 80.9 19.0 0.0
Final Game 9.5% 0.1 90.5 9.5
Champion 4.5% 0.0 95.5 4.5

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.2% 65.3% 35.7% 18.7% 9.4% 4.4%
St. Mary's 41.3% 16.6% 33.5% 13.6% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Santa Clara 22.1% 8.5% 17.7% 6.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%