West Coast
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
11 Gonzaga 93.3%   8   16 - 7 7 - 3 23 - 8 14 - 4 +17.7      +12.1 4 +5.7 45 73.7 53 +11.1 52 +8.2 4
31 St. Mary's 94.5%   7   19 - 3 10 - 0 25 - 5 16 - 2 +14.1      +6.4 40 +7.7 24 58.9 358 +15.1 29 +21.3 1
64 Santa Clara 9.9%   15 - 9 7 - 4 20 - 11 12 - 6 +8.5      +5.6 51 +2.9 96 70.8 111 +7.1 80 +8.6 3
72 San Francisco 5.8%   17 - 6 8 - 3 21 - 9 12 - 6 +7.6      +3.5 80 +4.1 69 67.7 199 +8.9 59 +9.2 2
76 Oregon St. 5.1%   15 - 7 6 - 4 20 - 10 11 - 7 +7.5      +5.9 47 +1.6 132 63.0 318 +7.3 77 +7.6 5
103 Washington St. 0.6%   15 - 9 5 - 6 18 - 13 8 - 10 +4.5      +2.8 98 +1.8 126 73.6 55 +5.9 85 -0.5 7
136 Loyola Marymount 0.2%   13 - 8 6 - 4 17 - 12 10 - 8 +1.5      -1.2 209 +2.6 100 67.3 208 +4.9 95 +6.7 6
217 Pepperdine 0.0%   8 - 14 3 - 7 11 - 19 6 - 12 -3.2      -2.1 233 -1.1 210 71.6 91 -5.8 260 -4.3 9
299 Portland 0.0%   6 - 16 3 - 8 8 - 21 5 - 13 -7.7      -1.8 225 -5.9 336 69.4 150 -6.9 280 -2.4 8
302 Pacific 0.0%   5 - 18 2 - 9 7 - 23 4 - 14 -8.0      -3.7 274 -4.2 298 67.1 214 -8.8 310 -7.7 10
311 San Diego 0.0%   3 - 19 1 - 10 5 - 25 2 - 16 -8.6      -6.1 330 -2.5 248 76.0 29 -13.9 348 -13.2 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Gonzaga 2.0 18.7 71.0 7.1 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 1.1 93.5 5.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
Santa Clara 3.6 1.1 11.1 39.1 29.9 14.2 4.1 0.5
San Francisco 3.7 1.4 12.5 36.6 24.6 18.4 6.1 0.4
Oregon St. 3.9 1.0 6.7 35.2 25.0 24.1 6.1 1.8 0.0
Washington St. 6.5 0.1 0.9 2.8 7.4 27.5 55.7 5.5 0.1
Loyola Marymount 5.5 0.1 0.7 6.8 11.9 20.2 45.9 13.5 1.0 0.1
Pepperdine 8.1 0.0 0.3 3.4 11.5 61.6 19.7 3.1 0.4
Portland 8.8 0.4 2.0 36.6 44.9 14.7 1.4
Pacific 9.7 0.0 7.4 31.0 48.1 13.5
San Diego 10.4 0.0 2.9 10.5 26.1 60.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 14 - 4 0.0 0.2 1.6 7.8 23.0 38.2 29.2
St. Mary's 16 - 2 0.0 0.4 2.7 10.2 23.6 33.3 23.7 6.0
Santa Clara 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 1.9 11.6 30.7 36.1 16.9 2.7
San Francisco 12 - 6 0.0 2.2 13.7 31.1 32.3 15.9 4.3 0.5
Oregon St. 11 - 7 0.1 1.0 5.1 16.8 31.4 29.8 13.7 2.3
Washington St. 8 - 10 0.2 3.2 15.2 32.6 31.0 14.5 3.1 0.3
Loyola Marymount 10 - 8 0.4 3.1 13.6 27.5 29.4 19.4 5.8 0.8 0.0
Pepperdine 6 - 12 2.5 13.1 27.6 29.2 18.5 7.3 1.7 0.3
Portland 5 - 13 12.8 30.7 31.1 17.9 6.4 1.0 0.2
Pacific 4 - 14 11.2 37.0 38.4 11.2 2.0 0.1 0.0
San Diego 2 - 16 16.4 37.3 30.8 12.7 2.5 0.4 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 18.7% 5.5 11.9 1.1 0.1 0.0
St. Mary's 93.5% 79.8 12.4 1.1 0.1 0.0
Santa Clara 1.1% 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
San Francisco 1.4% 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Oregon St. 1.0% 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Washington St.
Loyola Marymount 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine
Portland
Pacific
San Diego


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 93.3% 56.0% 37.3% 8   0.9 3.7 6.5 6.7 5.2 8.8 12.4 16.2 15.4 13.5 4.1 0.0 6.7 84.8%
St. Mary's 94.5% 30.9% 63.6% 7   0.4 1.2 3.4 7.0 11.2 16.2 17.3 17.2 12.8 6.5 1.4 0.0 5.5 92.1%
Santa Clara 9.9% 5.1% 4.8% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.2 6.3 0.5 90.2 5.0%
San Francisco 5.8% 3.9% 1.9% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.8 0.9 0.0 94.2 1.9%
Oregon St. 5.1% 3.3% 1.7% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 3.7 0.6 95.0 1.8%
Washington St. 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 99.4 0.1%
Loyola Marymount 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 93.3% 3.6% 92.3% 67.7% 33.4% 17.9% 8.6% 3.8% 1.5%
St. Mary's 94.5% 1.2% 94.0% 58.7% 21.5% 8.2% 2.9% 0.9% 0.3%
Santa Clara 9.9% 3.8% 7.6% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 5.8% 1.6% 4.9% 1.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 5.1% 1.5% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.1 7.2 76.8 15.5 0.5
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 8.9 78.7 12.2 0.2
2nd Round 89.1% 1.3 10.9 48.5 39.6 1.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 49.0% 0.6 51.0 42.2 6.8 0.0
Elite Eight 25.0% 0.3 75.0 23.7 1.3
Final Four 11.5% 0.1 88.5 11.3 0.1
Final Game 4.7% 0.0 95.4 4.6 0.0
Champion 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8