West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
13 Gonzaga 99.9%   4   24 - 2 12 - 1 +18.9      +9.6 20 +9.3 13 74.1 51 +22.3 7 +15.9 2
40 St. Mary's 60.9%   11   21 - 4 11 - 2 +13.1      +5.9 57 +7.2 29 64.3 297 +14.1 38 +14.3 3
44 Santa Clara 53.2%   21 - 5 13 - 1 +12.1      +7.9 44 +4.2 62 72.7 74 +12.8 45 +20.2 1
107 San Francisco 0.6%   13 - 12 6 - 7 +4.2      +3.0 98 +1.2 131 65.4 268 +3.1 112 +2.0 5
115 Pacific 0.5%   15 - 10 8 - 6 +3.1      +1.0 136 +2.0 113 64.3 298 +2.6 119 +1.8 6
125 Washington St. 0.2%   10 - 16 6 - 8 +2.1      +3.5 89 -1.3 220 69.5 156 -0.4 171 +0.8 7
132 Seattle 0.1%   13 - 11 4 - 9 +1.8      -5.1 306 +6.9 32 69.2 166 +2.0 133 -2.1 11
151 Loyola Marymount 0.0%   12 - 14 4 - 10 +0.5      -2.2 225 +2.6 99 68.5 188 -0.3 167 -2.0 10
178 Oregon St. 0.0%   13 - 13 6 - 7 -1.1      -0.6 173 -0.6 191 63.9 309 +0.8 144 +2.5 4
206 Portland 0.0%   10 - 15 5 - 9 -2.7      -2.6 243 -0.1 172 70.6 127 -0.7 176 +0.2 8
216 San Diego 0.0%   9 - 16 5 - 9 -3.0      -0.7 181 -2.3 245 72.3 83 -3.6 226 -1.0 9
291 Pepperdine 0.0%   4 - 20 1 - 12 -7.6      -5.6 317 -2.0 238 69.3 163 -9.4 311 -11.0 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Feb 10 125 Washington St. 53 13 Gonzaga 83   
Wed, Feb 11 44 Santa Clara 84 132 Seattle 72   
Wed, Feb 11 151 Loyola Marymount 59 115 Pacific 65   
Wed, Feb 11 206 Portland 58 216 San Diego 71   
Wed, Feb 11 291 Pepperdine 60 40 St. Mary's 88   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 12 178 Oregon St. 66 107 San Francisco 75 79%   
Sat, Feb 14 13 Gonzaga 83 44 Santa Clara 79 64%   
Sat, Feb 14 115 Pacific 65 40 St. Mary's 72 75%   
Sat, Feb 14 151 Loyola Marymount 73 291 Pepperdine 68 69%   
Sun, Feb 15 178 Oregon St. 63 132 Seattle 69 72%   
Sun, Feb 15 216 San Diego 74 107 San Francisco 78 66%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Gonzaga 1.3 76.9 18.5 4.6
St. Mary's 2.4 15.7 31.9 52.4
Santa Clara 1.8 38.2 46.5 15.3
San Francisco 5.5 32.6 27.7 17.9 10.7 7.3 2.4 1.3 0.1
Pacific 4.4 0.2 72.0 17.7 8.3 1.8 0.1
Washington St. 5.9 21.0 26.5 22.1 15.4 9.3 3.6 2.0 0.2
Seattle 7.9 2.5 10.3 14.2 16.3 18.7 14.3 14.2 9.4 0.1
Loyola Marymount 8.8 0.2 4.8 8.4 12.4 16.1 15.9 20.6 21.4 0.2
Oregon St. 5.8 18.3 30.8 22.6 13.3 9.8 3.5 1.6 0.2
Portland 8.4 0.3 4.5 8.8 15.9 23.0 19.1 19.1 9.3 0.0
San Diego 8.4 1.7 7.7 9.3 13.3 15.6 15.2 19.9 17.2 0.0
Pepperdine 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.3 97.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 16 - 2 28 - 3 0.2 2.9 19.7 44.0 33.2
St. Mary's 14 - 4 24 - 6 0.5 4.2 16.2 32.3 34.4 12.5
Santa Clara 15 - 3 23 - 7 1.2 16.4 41.2 31.9 9.3
San Francisco 8 - 10 15 - 15 3.4 18.2 36.6 29.1 11.4 1.4
Pacific 9 - 9 16 - 13 18.7 42.3 30.8 7.9 0.3
Washington St. 8 - 10 12 - 18 5.7 25.0 39.7 24.5 5.2
Seattle 7 - 11 16 - 13 1.1 8.6 26.2 36.5 23.2 4.4
Loyola Marymount 6 - 12 14 - 16 3.9 16.9 34.7 32.8 11.8
Oregon St. 8 - 10 15 - 16 3.7 23.4 42.4 25.0 5.3 0.3
Portland 7 - 11 12 - 17 7.3 34.4 45.6 12.6 0.1
San Diego 7 - 11 11 - 18 15.1 35.0 32.4 14.7 2.8
Pepperdine 2 - 16 5 - 24 24.5 37.5 26.2 9.7 2.0 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 76.9% 51.7 22.8 2.4
St. Mary's 15.7% 2.9 10.4 2.4
Santa Clara 38.2% 16.9 18.9 2.4
San Francisco
Pacific
Washington St.
Seattle
Loyola Marymount
Oregon St.
Portland
San Diego
Pepperdine


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 99.9% 63.6% 36.3% 4   1.8 8.0 22.2 30.1 23.6 11.1 2.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 99.8%
St. Mary's 60.9% 16.6% 44.3% 11   0.2 0.5 1.6 2.6 5.5 10.0 17.0 23.3 0.2 39.1 53.1%
Santa Clara 53.2% 18.4% 34.8% 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.8 10.0 16.1 19.8 0.2 46.8 42.7%
San Francisco 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 99.4 0.0%
Pacific 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.1 99.5 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Seattle 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 2.2 14.8 55.1 29.8 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 2.0 22.1 57.7 20.1 0.2
2nd Round 95.5% 1.3 4.5 62.3 30.6 2.6
Sweet Sixteen 58.3% 0.6 41.7 53.9 4.3 0.1
Elite Eight 24.8% 0.3 75.2 24.3 0.5
Final Four 10.5% 0.1 89.5 10.5 0.0
Final Game 4.1% 0.0 95.9 4.1
Champion 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 91.5% 54.3% 23.0% 10.1% 4.0% 1.4%
St. Mary's 60.9% 20.3% 52.0% 22.2% 5.1% 1.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Santa Clara 53.2% 15.9% 45.2% 17.5% 3.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
San Francisco 0.6% 0.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.5% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%