West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
4 Gonzaga 99.8%   2   8 - 1 0 - 0 29 - 2 17 - 1 +21.6      +11.2 8 +10.4 5 74.3 70 +25.5 4 0.0 1
42 St. Mary's 42.0%   7 - 1 0 - 0 23 - 7 13 - 5 +11.8      +5.0 68 +6.8 25 64.9 301 +16.1 26 0.0 1
55 Santa Clara 25.6%   7 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 12 - 6 +9.6      +5.7 59 +3.9 69 71.4 138 +14.7 29 0.0 1
99 San Francisco 1.9%   4 - 4 0 - 0 16 - 14 10 - 8 +5.0      +2.7 107 +2.3 103 67.6 232 +1.4 155 0.0 1
114 Seattle 1.2%   5 - 2 0 - 0 17 - 12 10 - 8 +3.5      +0.4 151 +3.1 83 67.0 255 +2.3 148 0.0 1
139 Pacific 0.4%   6 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 +1.5      +0.5 148 +1.0 136 66.4 264 +3.7 120 0.0 1
143 Loyola Marymount 0.3%   6 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 13 9 - 9 +1.3      -1.9 222 +3.2 81 67.7 226 +2.4 146 0.0 1
158 Washington St. 0.2%   2 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 10 -0.2      +1.9 119 -2.2 239 72.0 121 -6.2 262 0.0 1
163 Oregon St. 0.1%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 18 7 - 11 -0.6      +0.3 153 -0.9 195 62.6 342 -3.3 218 0.0 1
262 San Diego 0.0%   2 - 5 0 - 0 8 - 21 5 - 13 -5.7      -1.5 208 -4.2 317 74.7 58 -9.5 301 0.0 1
270 Portland 0.0%   4 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 20 5 - 13 -6.1      -2.9 245 -3.2 274 71.7 129 -4.3 234 0.0 1
298 Pepperdine 0.0%   1 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 23 4 - 14 -7.7      -4.9 303 -2.8 264 67.6 230 -12.8 334 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 124 Bradley 64 158 Washington St. 60   
Tue, Dec 2 143 Loyola Marymount 70 46 Saint Louis 91   
Tue, Dec 2 234 Abilene Christian 71 298 Pepperdine 63   
Wed, Dec 3 200 North Alabama 65 99 San Francisco 63   
Wed, Dec 3 55 Santa Clara 90 254 Utah Tech 80   
Wed, Dec 3 332 Air Force 65 139 Pacific 80   
Wed, Dec 3 163 Oregon St. 80 189 Vermont 58   
Fri, Dec 5 4 Gonzaga 94 23 Kentucky 59   
Fri, Dec 5 262 San Diego 69 185 San Jose St. 86   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 103 New Mexico 79 55 Santa Clara 81 58%   
Sat, Dec 6 69 California 78 139 Pacific 68 81%   
Sat, Dec 6 298 Pepperdine 70 189 Vermont 73 60%   
Sat, Dec 6 163 Oregon St. 76 320 Southern Utah 65 86%   
Sun, Dec 7 81 Mississippi St. 75 99 San Francisco 73 58%   
Sun, Dec 7 105 Nevada 77 158 Washington St. 75 56%   
Sun, Dec 7 137 Davidson 65 42 St. Mary's 72 75%   
Sun, Dec 7 114 Seattle 71 241 UTEP 60 85%   
Sun, Dec 7 4 Gonzaga 102 343 North Florida 66 100%   
Tue, Dec 9 262 San Diego 74 32 USC 90 93%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Gonzaga 1.1 91.8 7.0 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
St. Mary's 2.6 11.0 47.5 23.2 9.9 4.8 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Santa Clara 3.3 5.0 31.9 29.3 15.6 8.7 4.9 2.6 1.2 0.5 0.3 0.0
San Francisco 5.2 0.6 8.1 14.5 18.2 17.4 15.0 11.1 7.2 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.1
Seattle 5.4 0.5 6.7 13.1 17.9 17.7 14.5 11.7 8.4 5.1 2.8 1.2 0.3
Pacific 5.8 0.3 5.5 11.4 15.8 15.6 15.3 13.0 9.2 7.0 3.9 2.1 0.7
Loyola Marymount 6.4 0.2 3.7 8.2 12.1 13.9 14.4 14.4 12.5 10.1 6.2 3.3 1.0
Washington St. 7.3 0.1 1.5 3.9 7.5 10.9 13.2 15.6 15.7 13.6 9.4 5.9 2.6
Oregon St. 7.5 0.0 1.4 3.9 7.2 9.6 11.8 14.1 15.6 15.3 11.3 7.0 2.9
San Diego 9.5 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.7 4.7 7.2 10.8 15.9 18.9 20.7 17.0
Portland 9.9 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.7 2.9 5.5 8.7 14.3 20.5 23.9 21.3
Pepperdine 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.5 6.3 11.1 17.5 25.4 33.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Gonzaga 17 - 1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.7 7.9 19.1 34.7 34.5
St. Mary's 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.3 4.9 8.8 14.2 18.5 19.5 16.1 10.3 3.6 0.6
Santa Clara 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 5.4 9.0 13.9 17.5 18.3 15.4 10.2 4.6 1.1 0.2
San Francisco 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.3 4.9 7.8 11.9 15.7 16.6 15.0 11.5 7.3 3.5 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
Seattle 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.8 5.6 9.1 12.6 15.4 15.8 14.9 10.7 6.6 3.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Pacific 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.8 4.2 6.9 10.8 13.2 15.3 14.9 12.8 9.1 5.5 2.7 1.2 0.3 0.0
Loyola Marymount 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.8 6.2 10.1 12.7 15.1 14.5 13.1 10.2 6.3 3.5 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Washington St. 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.9 6.4 9.7 13.2 15.9 15.9 13.3 9.7 6.2 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0
Oregon St. 7 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.7 3.9 7.2 11.2 14.4 15.6 14.4 12.1 8.6 5.6 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
San Diego 5 - 13 1.0 4.2 8.3 13.9 16.1 16.9 14.2 10.8 6.8 4.3 2.0 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Portland 5 - 13 1.3 5.2 10.8 16.4 18.5 17.1 13.0 8.7 4.9 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Pepperdine 4 - 14 2.9 9.4 15.6 19.1 18.0 14.7 9.8 5.7 2.7 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Gonzaga 91.8% 83.4 7.7 0.6 0.0
St. Mary's 11.0% 5.1 5.3 0.5 0.0
Santa Clara 5.0% 2.1 2.4 0.5 0.0
San Francisco 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Seattle 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Pacific 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Loyola Marymount 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0
Washington St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oregon St. 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
San Diego
Portland
Pepperdine


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Gonzaga 99.8% 76.7% 23.1% 2   22.6 23.3 17.9 15.6 8.8 5.6 3.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.2 99.0%
St. Mary's 42.0% 12.5% 29.5% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.0 1.7 2.8 3.6 6.1 10.8 14.1 0.7 58.1 33.7%
Santa Clara 25.6% 7.4% 18.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.9 3.4 6.7 10.5 0.6 0.0 74.4 19.7%
San Francisco 1.9% 1.6% 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.1 0.4%
Seattle 1.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 98.8 0.2%
Pacific 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.6 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.7 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Gonzaga 99.8% 0.1% 99.8% 93.9% 69.1% 42.8% 24.6% 13.4% 7.2%
St. Mary's 42.0% 12.6% 36.2% 18.0% 5.2% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Santa Clara 25.6% 9.4% 20.9% 9.0% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
San Francisco 1.9% 0.3% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pacific 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Marymount 0.3% 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Washington St. 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Oregon St. 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Portland 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Pepperdine 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.7 38.5 51.8 9.6 0.1
1st Round 100.0% 1.6 46.0 47.4 6.5 0.1
2nd Round 96.4% 1.2 3.6 72.0 23.3 1.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 72.1% 0.8 27.9 67.5 4.6 0.0
Elite Eight 44.5% 0.5 55.6 43.5 0.9
Final Four 25.3% 0.3 74.7 25.2 0.1
Final Game 13.6% 0.1 86.4 13.6 0.0
Champion 7.2% 0.1 92.8 7.2