Loyola Marymount
West Coast
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.2 #155
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #169
Pace 68.3 #203
Improvement -5.0 #351

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #255 C C- D+ F D+
Defense #89 A C C- C+ B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #313 1.19 #138 -2.5 #271
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #125 0.71 #249 +0.4 #154
Three Pointers 44% #134 1.05 #136 +2.1 #110
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #172 +0.0 #173
Freethrows 14.2 #326 66% #347 9.4 #346
Second Chance 27.4% #274 1.06 #155 0.29 #238
Turnovers 17.9% #272
Total Offense -3.0 #255

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #180 0.97 #14 +3.6 #71
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #42 0.72 #117 -1.7 #310
Three Pointers 35% #338 0.95 #94 +4.4 #33
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #27 +6.2 #26
Freethrows 15.9 #109 75% #300 12.0 #152
Second Chance 30.9% #200 1.04 #178 0.32 #194
Turnovers 15.8% #216
Total Defense +3.2 #89

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.4% #279 -1.4% #69
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.4% #157 -10.9% #27
Possession Length 17.3 #170 16.9 #114
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #147 0.13 #49
Improvement -1.6 #275 -3.5 #341

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.5 12.5 12.5
.500 or above 40.7% 49.4% 20.5%
.500 or above in Conference 10.1% 13.3% 2.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 9.7% 5.6% 19.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Home) - 69.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 36 - 57 - 13
Quad 48 - 315 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 243 Eastern Washington W 70 - 62 77% +1  1 - 0 +0 -8 F B+ D+ +9 A- A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 8 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 94 - 72 90% +9  2 - 0 +8 +13 A+ F A+ -5 D+ C+ C
 Tue, Nov 11 256 @UTEP W 71 - 58 59% +3  3 - 0 +11 +6 A+ A+ F +7 A+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 14 112 Troy W 74 - 63 49% +3  4 - 0 +11 +2 A F B- +10 A- A A+
 Mon, Nov 17 144 @UC Santa Barbara W 78 - 74 OT 36% -3  5 - 0 +8 -1 C F D- +8 A+ C- F
 Mon, Nov 24 95 Florida Atlantic L 65 - 76 30% -7  5 - 1 -5 +1 D+ D B -7 D C+ A-
 Tue, Nov 25 196 Ohio W 70 - 58 60% +4  6 - 1 +10 -7 F F F +16 A+ B A+
 Fri, Nov 28 242 Stony Brook L 68 - 71 77% -6  6 - 2 -10 -7 D B F -4 C+ C- D
 Tue, Dec 2 28 Saint Louis L 70 - 91 15% -12  6 - 3 -9 -3 C+ C F -4 A F A+
 Tue, Dec 16 109 UC San Diego L 57 - 67 47% -3  6 - 4 -9 -17 C F F +8 B+ C A+
 Fri, Dec 19 328 North Alabama W 91 - 57 89% +22  7 - 4 +21 +12 A- A+ C +9 A+ B- F
 Tue, Dec 23 360 Morgan St. W 83 - 56 95% +16  8 - 4 +8 +1 B D+ F +8 A+ F A+
 Sun, Dec 28 42 St. Mary's L 73 - 78 20% -1  8 - 5 0 - 1 +4 +18 A+ A+ A+ -15 D+ F F
 Tue, Dec 30 132 Pacific W 80 - 71 56% -1  9 - 5 1 - 1 +8 +6 A+ F C+ +1 A+ D+ D+
 Fri, Jan 2 141 @Washington St. L 76 - 78 35% +1  9 - 6 1 - 2 +2 +4 C- D A- -1 F A+ C
 Sun, Jan 4 6 @Gonzaga L 47 - 82 3% -15  9 - 7 1 - 3 -11 -14 F D- B- +2 C+ C+ D
 Thu, Jan 8 101 San Francisco W 84 - 82 2OT 44% +1  10 - 7 2 - 3 +4 +1 C D A+ +2 A+ D- C
 Sat, Jan 10 54 @Santa Clara L 72 - 103 11% -17  10 - 8 2 - 4 -18 -1 D- C C -14 C D- F
 Wed, Jan 14 195 @Oregon St. L 70 - 76 48% -1  10 - 9 2 - 5 -5 -3 F A+ F -2 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 210 Portland L 58 - 71 73% -11  10 - 10 2 - 6 -19 -17 F D F -3 C+ A- D
 Wed, Jan 21 121 @Seattle L 59 - 69 30% -12  10 - 11 2 - 7 -4 -5 A F F +0 A+ D+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 195 Oregon St. W 72 - 66 70%
 Sat, Jan 31 54 Santa Clara L 70 - 77 25%
 Tue, Feb 3 101 @San Francisco L 66 - 73 24%
 Sat, Feb 7 209 San Diego W 77 - 71 72%
 Wed, Feb 11 132 @Pacific L 67 - 71 33%
 Sat, Feb 14 279 @Pepperdine W 69 - 65 64%
 Sat, Feb 21 209 @San Diego W 75 - 74 51%
 Wed, Feb 25 141 Washington St. W 74 - 72 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 121 Seattle W 67 - 66 52%
Totals 14 - 16 6 - 12 +0 -3 C C- D+ +3 A C C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected West Coast Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.6 1.6 0.2 4.7 4th
5th 0.1 3.8 3.7 0.4 0.0 8.0 5th
6th 0.0 2.5 7.5 1.4 0.0 11.5 6th
7th 0.6 9.3 3.9 0.1 13.9 7th
8th 0.1 6.0 9.4 0.6 16.1 8th
9th 0.0 2.6 11.7 2.6 0.0 16.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 8.1 4.6 0.1 13.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 4.9 5.3 0.4 11.6 11th
12th 0.3 1.4 1.6 0.3 3.5 12th
Total 0.3 2.3 7.6 16.3 23.3 24.1 16.1 7.8 2.0 0.3 Total



West Coast Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.3% 0.3
10-8 2.0% 0.8% 0.8% 12.0 0.0 1.9
9-9 7.8% 0.3% 0.3% 12.0 0.0 7.8
8-10 16.1% 0.1% 0.1% 13.0 0.0 16.1
7-11 24.1% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 24.1
6-12 23.3% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 23.3
5-13 16.3% 16.3
4-14 7.6% 7.6
3-15 2.3% 2.3
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 12.5 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 0.3%