Ohio
Mid-American
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.0#168
Expected Predictive Rating-2.4#209
Pace74.7#40
Improvement-0.1#195

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#177
First Shot+2.0#115
After Offensive Rebound-1.7#286
Layup/Dunks-0.2#194
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#66
Freethrows-0.7#228
Improvement-2.5#311

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#181
First Shot-1.5#227
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#84
Layups/Dunks-1.4#230
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#201
Freethrows+0.2#170
Improvement+2.4#63
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.1% 12.4% 10.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 77.8% 81.7% 54.8%
.500 or above in Conference 92.0% 94.7% 75.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.8%
First Round11.9% 12.2% 10.1%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Michigan (Home) - 85.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 413 - 417 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 137   @ James Madison L 78-88 35%     0 - 1 -6.1 +4.9 -10.8
  Nov 09, 2024 172   UNC Asheville W 82-76 61%     1 - 1 +3.1 +2.3 +0.6
  Nov 12, 2024 135   @ Illinois St. L 75-85 35%     1 - 2 -6.0 +7.8 -14.7
  Nov 15, 2024 41   @ Memphis L 70-94 10%     1 - 3 -9.9 -0.4 -7.6
  Nov 21, 2024 120   Middle Tennessee L 81-83 OT 41%     1 - 4 +0.3 -1.8 +2.4
  Nov 22, 2024 299   Portland W 85-73 77%     2 - 4 +4.3 -3.4 +6.4
  Nov 24, 2024 184   Texas St. L 65-74 55%     2 - 5 -10.3 -3.1 -8.2
  Nov 30, 2024 194   Robert Morris W 84-68 65%     3 - 5 +11.9 +9.9 +2.0
  Dec 07, 2024 282   Morehead St. W 88-76 81%     4 - 5 +2.8 +8.3 -6.0
  Dec 14, 2024 182   @ Marshall L 70-79 45%     4 - 6 -7.6 -4.1 -3.3
  Dec 18, 2024 296   Austin Peay W 78-58 82%     5 - 6 +10.1 +2.7 +7.6
  Jan 04, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan W 57-55 54%     6 - 6 1 - 0 +1.0 -11.9 +13.0
  Jan 07, 2025 342   @ Buffalo W 88-79 81%     7 - 6 2 - 0 -0.3 +1.1 -2.4
  Jan 11, 2025 338   Northern Illinois W 108-70 90%     8 - 6 3 - 0 +23.9 +17.1 +2.3
  Jan 14, 2025 255   Ball St. W 86-71 78%     9 - 6 4 - 0 +7.0 +10.6 -2.9
  Jan 17, 2025 100   @ Akron L 80-92 24%     9 - 7 4 - 1 -4.8 +4.8 -8.7
  Jan 21, 2025 300   @ Eastern Michigan L 87-94 69%     9 - 8 4 - 2 -12.3 +3.3 -15.0
  Jan 24, 2025 148   Kent St. W 61-59 56%     10 - 8 5 - 2 +0.5 -7.7 +8.2
  Jan 28, 2025 201   Toledo L 83-86 67%     10 - 9 5 - 3 -7.4 -1.5 -5.8
  Feb 01, 2025 173   @ Miami (OH) L 69-73 42%     10 - 10 5 - 4 -1.9 -4.7 +2.8
  Feb 04, 2025 306   Western Michigan W 82-71 86%    
  Feb 08, 2025 145   Appalachian St. W 70-69 57%    
  Feb 11, 2025 312   @ Bowling Green W 81-75 69%    
  Feb 15, 2025 148   @ Kent St. L 68-71 36%    
  Feb 18, 2025 225   Central Michigan W 76-70 72%    
  Feb 22, 2025 100   Akron L 80-82 44%    
  Feb 25, 2025 306   @ Western Michigan W 79-73 69%    
  Mar 01, 2025 173   Miami (OH) W 79-76 62%    
  Mar 04, 2025 300   Eastern Michigan W 83-73 84%    
  Mar 07, 2025 201   @ Toledo L 82-83 47%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.0 3.6 1.2 7.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.9 7.1 11.3 4.9 0.4 24.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 10.7 16.0 6.2 0.5 35.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 6.9 9.2 2.5 0.1 19.3 5th
6th 0.1 2.2 4.3 1.2 0.1 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.4 0.6 0.0 3.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.7 6.0 13.6 22.0 25.8 19.6 9.2 1.8 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 15.8% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
13-5 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 1.8% 21.9% 21.9% 13.3 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
13-5 9.2% 19.8% 19.8% 13.9 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.4 7.4
12-6 19.6% 15.9% 15.9% 14.4 0.3 1.4 1.4 0.1 16.5
11-7 25.8% 11.7% 11.7% 14.7 0.1 1.0 1.7 0.3 22.8
10-8 22.0% 10.3% 10.3% 15.1 0.2 1.6 0.5 19.8
9-9 13.6% 8.3% 8.3% 15.5 0.0 0.5 0.6 12.5
8-10 6.0% 5.3% 5.3% 15.9 0.0 0.3 5.7
7-11 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 0.3% 0.3
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 1.1 3.7 5.6 1.7 87.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.9 25.0 62.5 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%