Central Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.2#309
Expected Predictive Rating-9.6#306
Pace67.4#244
Improvement-3.1#343

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#269
First Shot-5.1#313
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#103
Layup/Dunks+1.6#125
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#343
Freethrows-2.9#323
Improvement-1.0#263

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#323
First Shot+0.9#141
After Offensive Rebounds-5.4#361
Layups/Dunks-1.4#227
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#61
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#156
Freethrows-0.3#203
Improvement-2.0#330
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 n/a 15.6
.500 or above 1.2% 7.1% 1.1%
.500 or above in Conference 12.2% 23.3% 11.9%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 26.3% 15.9% 26.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.0% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Saint Louis (Away) - 1.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 31 - 82 - 14
Quad 46 - 68 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 283 Appalachian St. W 82-66 56%     1 - 0 +6.4 +11.6 -4.0
  Sat, Nov 8 124 @Bradley L 54-85 10%     1 - 1 -25.1 -13.8 -12.0
  Thu, Nov 13 165 South Alabama L 64-66 24%     1 - 2 -2.7 -1.1 -1.9
  Fri, Nov 14 364 Coppin St. W 82-59 80%     2 - 2 +6.0 +1.9 +3.9
  Thu, Nov 20 181 Northern Kentucky L 66-90 36%     2 - 3 -28.5 -7.9 -21.3
  Sat, Nov 22 83 @Marquette L 71-85 6%     2 - 4 -4.1 +2.7 -6.5
  Tue, Dec 2 259 @Loyola Chicago L 72-83 29%     2 - 5 -13.5 +0.9 -15.1
  Sun, Dec 7 46 @Saint Louis L 65-87 2%    
  Sat, Dec 13 222 @Stony Brook L 67-75 24%    
  Sat, Dec 20 330 @Northern Illinois L 74-75 44%    
  Mon, Dec 22 36 @Wisconsin L 64-88 1%    
  Tue, Dec 30 194 Ohio L 75-78 40%    
  Sat, Jan 3 173 Toledo L 74-78 35%    
  Tue, Jan 6 54 @Akron L 71-92 3%    
  Sat, Jan 10 122 Kent St. L 76-84 24%    
  Tue, Jan 13 127 @Miami (OH) L 69-83 11%    
  Tue, Jan 20 316 Ball St. W 71-68 62%    
  Sat, Jan 24 267 @Western Michigan L 71-76 32%    
  Tue, Jan 27 203 Eastern Michigan L 69-72 41%    
  Sat, Jan 31 119 Bowling Green L 68-76 23%    
  Tue, Feb 3 175 @Massachusetts L 70-80 19%    
  Sat, Feb 14 330 Northern Illinois W 77-72 66%    
  Tue, Feb 17 203 @Eastern Michigan L 66-75 23%    
  Sat, Feb 21 267 Western Michigan W 74-73 53%    
  Tue, Feb 24 122 @Kent St. L 73-87 11%    
  Sat, Feb 28 215 @Buffalo L 70-78 24%    
  Tue, Mar 3 54 Akron L 74-89 10%    
  Fri, Mar 6 316 @Ball St. L 68-71 40%    
Projected Record 8 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.5 0.9 0.1 4.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 3.4 1.7 0.1 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 4.3 3.3 0.5 0.0 9.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 4.4 4.9 1.0 0.0 11.1 9th
10th 0.7 4.4 6.1 2.1 0.1 13.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 4.6 7.1 3.0 0.2 0.0 15.7 11th
12th 0.1 1.1 4.8 7.2 3.3 0.3 0.0 16.8 12th
13th 0.6 2.7 5.4 5.5 2.2 0.2 0.0 16.5 13th
Total 0.6 2.7 6.5 11.0 14.7 15.8 14.8 12.6 9.2 5.9 3.5 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 33.3% 0.0    0.0
14-4 13.3% 0.0    0.0
13-5 14.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 0.1
13-5 0.3% 6.7% 6.7% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.7% 3.5% 3.5% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.6
11-7 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.6
10-8 3.5% 0.6% 0.6% 15.3 0.0 0.0 3.4
9-9 5.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.9
8-10 9.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.2
7-11 12.6% 12.6
6-12 14.8% 14.8
5-13 15.8% 15.8
4-14 14.7% 14.7
3-15 11.0% 11.0
2-16 6.5% 6.5
1-17 2.7% 2.7
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%