Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.5#214
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#240
Pace66.5#245
Improvement+1.2#104

Offense
Total Offense-3.2#266
First Shot-3.8#292
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#150
Layup/Dunks-1.3#223
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#47
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#281
Freethrows-2.0#294
Improvement+1.9#51

Defense
Total Defense+0.7#148
First Shot-0.1#174
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#113
Layups/Dunks+2.0#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.0#200
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#306
Freethrows+1.1#113
Improvement-0.6#234
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.8% 9.8% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 49.2% 57.3% 31.5%
.500 or above in Conference 76.8% 79.7% 70.3%
Conference Champion 11.3% 12.8% 8.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.4% 0.7%
First Four1.3% 1.1% 1.7%
First Round8.3% 9.4% 5.7%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: South Carolina St. (Home) - 68.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 33 - 63 - 11
Quad 412 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 63   @ Florida St. L 62-74 10%     0 - 1 -0.2 -9.2 +10.1
  Nov 08, 2024 20   @ Purdue L 50-72 4%     0 - 2 -4.7 -10.6 +3.1
  Nov 14, 2024 241   Nicholls St. L 59-61 68%     0 - 3 -9.5 -14.9 +5.3
  Nov 19, 2024 26   Cincinnati L 60-76 11%     0 - 4 -5.3 -0.9 -5.7
  Nov 27, 2024 121   @ College of Charleston L 64-79 22%     0 - 5 -9.5 -4.4 -5.5
  Nov 30, 2024 343   Bellarmine W 86-70 87%     1 - 5 +1.3 +4.6 -2.9
  Dec 03, 2024 163   @ Akron L 73-86 31%     1 - 6 -10.3 +3.7 -14.5
  Dec 07, 2024 354   @ IU Indianapolis W 66-64 76%     2 - 6 1 - 0 -7.8 -5.1 -2.5
  Dec 15, 2024 181   Norfolk St. W 71-62 56%     3 - 6 +5.0 -0.6 +6.0
  Dec 18, 2024 323   Detroit Mercy W 73-60 82%     4 - 6 2 - 0 +0.9 -2.0 +3.5
  Dec 21, 2024 247   South Carolina St. W 71-66 69%    
  Dec 29, 2024 259   @ Robert Morris L 67-68 49%    
  Jan 01, 2025 144   Purdue Fort Wayne L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 04, 2025 333   Green Bay W 78-67 84%    
  Jan 08, 2025 195   @ Youngstown St. L 65-69 35%    
  Jan 11, 2025 206   Oakland W 66-63 59%    
  Jan 15, 2025 224   @ Cleveland St. L 67-69 42%    
  Jan 18, 2025 154   Wright St. W 73-72 52%    
  Jan 24, 2025 137   Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 73-74 47%    
  Jan 30, 2025 323   @ Detroit Mercy W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 01, 2025 206   @ Oakland L 63-66 38%    
  Feb 05, 2025 224   Cleveland St. W 70-66 63%    
  Feb 08, 2025 259   Robert Morris W 70-64 70%    
  Feb 14, 2025 333   @ Green Bay W 75-70 66%    
  Feb 16, 2025 137   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 70-77 27%    
  Feb 21, 2025 154   @ Wright St. L 69-75 31%    
  Feb 23, 2025 354   IU Indianapolis W 75-62 88%    
  Feb 27, 2025 144   @ Purdue Fort Wayne L 72-78 30%    
  Mar 01, 2025 195   Youngstown St. W 68-66 57%    
Projected Record 14 - 15 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.3 3.1 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 11.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.2 5.1 3.0 0.8 0.1 0.0 12.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.3 5.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.2 6.4 3.0 0.3 0.0 13.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.4 3.3 0.3 13.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.9 3.6 0.4 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 0.1 0.5 2.6 4.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 11.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.1 3.2 1.8 0.3 0.0 8.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.9 6.8 9.7 12.7 14.2 13.9 12.6 9.9 6.7 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
18-2 99.5% 0.8    0.8 0.0
17-3 94.6% 1.8    1.6 0.2 0.0
16-4 79.4% 3.1    2.1 0.9 0.1
15-5 49.2% 3.3    1.4 1.5 0.4 0.0
14-6 17.8% 1.8    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 2.4% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 6.5 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.2% 36.9% 36.9% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
18-2 0.8% 37.7% 37.7% 13.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.5
17-3 1.9% 27.6% 27.6% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4
16-4 3.9% 21.4% 21.4% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 3.0
15-5 6.7% 18.1% 18.1% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 5.5
14-6 9.9% 15.6% 15.6% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.3 8.3
13-7 12.6% 11.5% 11.5% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 11.1
12-8 13.9% 8.0% 8.0% 15.5 0.0 0.6 0.5 12.8
11-9 14.2% 5.9% 5.9% 15.7 0.2 0.6 13.4
10-10 12.7% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.4 12.2
9-11 9.7% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2 9.4
8-12 6.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 6.7
7-13 3.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.8
6-14 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-15 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 0.7
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.5 2.8 91.2 0.0%