Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.3 #178
Expected Predictive Rating -1.6 #196
Pace 72.4 #86
Improvement +2.0 #96

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #173 C- C+ C- C B-
Defense #201 D D A- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #136 1.17 #164 +1.1 #135
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #281 0.62 #340 -2.7 #308
Three Pointers 44% #128 0.95 #260 +0.1 #175
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #227 -1.4 #222
Freethrows 16.7 #222 76% #70 12.7 #173
Second Chance 30.9% #174 1.10 #119 0.34 #134
Turnovers 17.2% #233
Total Offense -0.4 #173

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #194 1.17 #199 -0.3 #187
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #170 0.91 #350 -1.2 #279
Three Pointers 41% #190 1.09 #280 -1.5 #249
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #285 -3.0 #276
Freethrows 18.8 #260 70% #75 13.2 #223
Second Chance 32.9% #279 1.11 #270 0.36 #291
Turnovers 19.5% #41
Total Defense -0.9 #201

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.4% #87 0.0% #162
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.5% #253 6.6% #304
Possession Length 16.1 #66 17.6 #224
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.28 #9 0.19 #229
Improvement +1.9 #82 +0.1 #178

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.4% 17.2% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.3 14.7
.500 or above 95.7% 99.0% 94.1%
.500 or above in Conference 91.3% 97.8% 88.1%
Conference Champion 9.2% 20.6% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round14.3% 17.2% 12.9%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wright St. (Away) - 32.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 63 - 8
Quad 415 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 22 @Tennessee L 56 - 95 4% -18  0 - 1 -19 -6 D A- D- -14 F D C
 Wed, Nov 12 135 @East Tennessee St. L 63 - 75 29% -8  0 - 2 -7 -9 F F F +2 F A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 322 @Central Michigan W 90 - 66 71% +13  1 - 2 +17 +16 A- A+ C- +2 D+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 254 Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 71 74% +4  2 - 2 +3 +1 D- A+ D +2 B D+ B
 Wed, Nov 26 215 Wofford W 93 - 83 69% +2  3 - 2 +4 +9 B- B A -6 C C C
 Sat, Nov 29 285 Boston University W 74 - 65 80% -2  4 - 2 -1 +2 F A+ F -2 D- D- A+
 Wed, Dec 3 316 Cleveland St. W 95 - 80 85% +8  5 - 2 1 - 0 +3 +10 A+ A+ F -8 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 212 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 77 - 79 46% +2  5 - 3 1 - 1 -2 -2 F D F -0 F A A+
 Sat, Dec 13 300 @Bellarmine W 80 - 76 64% +6  6 - 3 -1 -0 C- F B- -1 D- C- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 139 Oakland L 77 - 82 52% -2  6 - 4 1 - 2 -7 -4 F C- B -3 C+ A- C
 Sun, Dec 21 164 College of Charleston L 74 - 85 58% -4  6 - 5 -14 -5 C D F -9 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 200 @Robert Morris W 79 - 77 43% -1  7 - 5 2 - 2 +2 +4 C+ F D+ -2 C- F A-
 Thu, Jan 1 337 IU Indianapolis W 81 - 72 88% -3  8 - 5 3 - 2 -5 -1 C F A- -4 D+ F A+
 Sun, Jan 4 213 Youngstown St. W 94 - 79 68% +15  9 - 5 4 - 2 +9 +8 A- A- C -1 A B+ F
 Fri, Jan 9 248 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 85 - 67 52% +13  10 - 5 5 - 2 +16 +18 D- A+ B- -0 C+ C- C-
 Sun, Jan 11 255 @Green Bay L 78 - 80 53% -13  10 - 6 5 - 3 -4 +13 C F A+ -18 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 15 286 Detroit Mercy W 96 - 71 80% +12  11 - 6 6 - 3 +15 +11 A+ C- B- +2 A F F
 Sat, Jan 17 200 Robert Morris L 89 - 92 OT 66% -3  11 - 7 6 - 4 -9 -3 D- D D+ -5 C F B-
 Sat, Jan 24 154 @Wright St. L 74 - 79 33%
 Fri, Jan 30 286 @Detroit Mercy W 80 - 77 61%
 Sun, Feb 1 139 @Oakland L 81 - 87 30%
 Wed, Feb 4 255 Green Bay W 78 - 71 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 82 - 75 73%
 Thu, Feb 12 337 @IU Indianapolis W 89 - 82 74%
 Wed, Feb 18 212 Purdue Fort Wayne W 80 - 75 68%
 Sat, Feb 21 213 @Youngstown St. L 76 - 77 46%
 Wed, Feb 25 316 @Cleveland St. W 84 - 79 68%
 Sat, Feb 28 154 Wright St. W 77 - 76 56%
Totals 17 - 11 12 - 8 -1 +0 C- C+ C- -1 D D A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 4.0 3.2 0.9 9.2 1st
2nd 0.1 1.4 6.9 5.7 0.9 14.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 10.3 9.1 1.8 0.0 23.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 9.3 9.6 1.8 0.0 22.4 4th
5th 0.4 5.2 7.1 1.5 0.0 14.1 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 4.9 1.4 0.0 8.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 2.7 1.3 0.1 4.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.8 0.1 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.1 6.2 13.0 20.0 22.8 18.9 11.5 4.1 0.9 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.9    0.8 0.1 0.0
15-5 77.6% 3.2    1.8 1.2 0.2 0.0
14-6 34.8% 4.0    0.9 1.9 1.0 0.2
13-7 5.7% 1.1    0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.2% 9.2 3.6 3.5 1.6 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.9% 27.8% 27.8% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-5 4.1% 26.2% 26.2% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 3.0
14-6 11.5% 22.8% 22.8% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.7 8.9
13-7 18.9% 18.4% 18.4% 14.4 0.2 1.7 1.5 0.1 15.4
12-8 22.8% 15.0% 15.0% 14.8 0.1 1.0 2.0 0.3 19.4
11-9 20.0% 10.5% 10.5% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.5 17.9
10-10 13.0% 8.3% 8.3% 15.4 0.0 0.6 0.5 12.0
9-11 6.2% 3.9% 3.9% 15.6 0.1 0.2 5.9
8-12 2.1% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 2.1
7-13 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.4% 14.4% 0.0% 14.6 85.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.7 40.8 53.1 6.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%