Northern Kentucky
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.5#181
Expected Predictive Rating+4.5#110
Pace68.7#209
Improvement+2.3#34

Offense
Total Offense-0.4#177
First Shot-2.6#249
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#66
Layup/Dunks-1.2#217
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#139
Freethrows-0.3#200
Improvement+2.1#34

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#205
First Shot-4.5#317
After Offensive Rebounds+3.3#16
Layups/Dunks-0.7#199
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#176
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#172
Freethrows-4.6#357
Improvement+0.2#164
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.9% 15.1% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 86.6% 93.4% 79.9%
.500 or above in Conference 81.2% 90.3% 72.1%
Conference Champion 16.8% 23.5% 10.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.6%
First Round12.8% 15.0% 10.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Purdue Fort Wayne (Away) - 50.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 10 - 2
Quad 33 - 53 - 7
Quad 415 - 418 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 16 @Tennessee L 56-95 3%     0 - 1 -18.8 -6.1 -12.9
  Wed, Nov 12 115 @East Tennessee St. L 63-75 23%     0 - 2 -5.6 -8.4 +3.1
  Thu, Nov 20 309 @Central Michigan W 90-66 64%     1 - 2 +18.8 +16.4 +3.0
  Mon, Nov 24 258 Eastern Kentucky W 82-71 74%     2 - 2 +2.6 +1.6 +0.8
  Wed, Nov 26 208 Wofford W 93-83 67%     3 - 2 +4.0 +11.2 -7.7
  Sat, Nov 29 235 Boston University W 74-65 72%     4 - 2 +1.5 +3.0 -0.3
  Wed, Dec 3 308 Cleveland St. W 95-80 82%     5 - 2 1 - 0 +3.9 +11.7 -8.2
  Sat, Dec 6 236 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 78-79 50%    
  Sat, Dec 13 292 @Bellarmine W 77-74 60%    
  Wed, Dec 17 141 Oakland L 80-81 51%    
  Sun, Dec 21 180 College of Charleston W 75-72 61%    
  Mon, Dec 29 183 @Robert Morris L 71-74 40%    
  Thu, Jan 1 354 IU Indianapolis W 95-80 91%    
  Sun, Jan 4 178 Youngstown St. W 75-72 61%    
  Fri, Jan 9 221 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 76-77 47%    
  Sun, Jan 11 264 @Green Bay W 73-72 54%    
  Thu, Jan 15 313 Detroit Mercy W 79-69 81%    
  Sat, Jan 17 183 Robert Morris W 74-71 61%    
  Sat, Jan 24 160 @Wright St. L 70-74 35%    
  Fri, Jan 30 313 @Detroit Mercy W 76-72 63%    
  Sun, Feb 1 141 @Oakland L 78-84 30%    
  Wed, Feb 4 264 Green Bay W 76-69 74%    
  Sat, Feb 7 221 Wisconsin-Milwaukee W 79-74 67%    
  Thu, Feb 12 354 @IU Indianapolis W 92-83 78%    
  Wed, Feb 18 236 Purdue Fort Wayne W 81-75 69%    
  Sat, Feb 21 178 @Youngstown St. L 72-75 39%    
  Wed, Feb 25 308 @Cleveland St. W 82-78 62%    
  Sat, Feb 28 160 Wright St. W 73-71 56%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.2 4.1 4.7 3.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 16.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.5 5.5 4.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 15.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.1 6.3 3.3 0.7 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 4.0 5.7 2.8 0.5 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 3.0 5.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.5 1.9 0.2 9.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 3.3 1.6 0.1 7.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.2 1.1 0.2 5.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.8 3.0 5.3 7.7 10.1 12.3 13.1 13.3 11.5 9.0 6.3 3.5 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
18-2 99.1% 1.5    1.4 0.1
17-3 91.3% 3.2    2.7 0.5 0.0
16-4 74.9% 4.7    3.1 1.4 0.2 0.0
15-5 45.6% 4.1    1.7 1.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
14-6 19.3% 2.2    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.2
13-7 2.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 16.8% 16.8 10.1 5.0 1.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 71.4% 71.4% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.5% 40.5% 40.5% 12.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
18-2 1.5% 41.2% 41.2% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9
17-3 3.5% 34.3% 34.3% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 2.3
16-4 6.3% 25.6% 25.6% 13.7 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 4.7
15-5 9.0% 22.7% 22.7% 14.1 0.4 1.1 0.5 7.0
14-6 11.5% 18.8% 18.8% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.9 0.1 9.4
13-7 13.3% 13.5% 13.5% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.1 11.5
12-8 13.1% 10.5% 10.5% 14.9 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.2 11.8
11-9 12.3% 7.3% 7.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 11.4
10-10 10.1% 4.5% 4.5% 15.3 0.0 0.2 0.2 9.6
9-11 7.7% 3.5% 3.5% 15.8 0.1 0.2 7.4
8-12 5.3% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.1 5.2
7-13 3.0% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 2.9
6-14 1.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 1.8
5-15 0.6% 0.6
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.9% 12.9% 0.0% 14.3 0.1 0.4 2.4 4.5 4.3 1.2 87.1 0.0%