Cleveland St.
Horizon
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -9.5 #316
Expected Predictive Rating -9.8 #323
Pace 71.5 #106
Improvement +3.0 #53

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #205 C+ D D- A C
Defense #358 D- F D- C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #310 1.09 #265 -4.1 #315
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #278 0.65 #314 -2.9 #314
Three Pointers 51% #22 1.14 #31 +8.0 #10
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #136 +1.0 #149
Freethrows 20.5 #34 77% #59 15.7 #23
Second Chance 25.7% #309 1.05 #172 0.27 #279
Turnovers 19.1% #326
Total Offense -1.3 #205

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #264 1.34 #353 -1.7 #235
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #304 0.89 #340 +0.2 #173
Three Pointers 48% #26 1.02 #189 -3.5 #317
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #321 -4.9 #324
Freethrows 16.1 #123 79% #357 12.7 #191
Second Chance 37.7% #358 1.08 #239 0.41 #345
Turnovers 14.1% #317
Total Defense -8.2 #358

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #161 0.7% #226
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.2% #143 8.6% #325
Possession Length 17.1 #155 16.7 #76
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #92 0.21 #314
Improvement +1.1 #121 +1.9 #72

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.7% 5.2% 0.6%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 30.0% 15.5% 34.6%
First Four0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Green Bay (Away) - 24.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 92 - 13
Quad 45 - 107 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 268 @Loyola Chicago L 88 - 91 27% -2  0 - 1 -6 +10 B- A+ F -16 D- C F
 Mon, Nov 10 60 @Northwestern L 63 - 110 3% -24  0 - 2 -35 -9 C+ C- F -24 F F F
 Sat, Nov 15 148 Kent St. L 95 - 102 17% -2  0 - 3 -6 +12 A+ A+ F -18 D+ F F
 Sun, Nov 16 253 Radford W 87 - 82 33% -9  1 - 3 -0 -3 C+ F D- +3 A F B-
 Wed, Nov 19 167 Valparaiso L 75 - 90 29% -12  1 - 4 -19 +3 C+ D A+ -22 F F D-
 Sat, Nov 22 148 @Kent St. L 71 - 91 11% -14  1 - 5 -16 -10 D- F F -4 F B A+
 Fri, Nov 28 50 @Missouri L 59 - 86 3% -19  1 - 6 -13 -9 C F F -4 C F A+
 Wed, Dec 3 178 @Northern Kentucky L 80 - 95 15% -8  1 - 7 0 - 1 -13 +6 A- B+ F -19 F F B+
 Sat, Dec 6 286 Detroit Mercy L 59 - 71 53% -4  1 - 8 0 - 2 -22 -13 F C F -10 D+ B F
 Wed, Dec 17 117 @UAB L 77 - 101 8% -7  1 - 9 -18 +3 A+ F D- -20 F C- D
 Sun, Dec 21 248 Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 71 - 81 44% +0  1 - 10 0 - 3 -18 -1 F C- A+ -18 D- F F
 Mon, Dec 29 337 IU Indianapolis W 99 - 86 68% +10  2 - 10 1 - 3 -1 +9 B F B- -12 B F F
 Sun, Jan 4 212 @Purdue Fort Wayne L 71 - 74 19% +4  2 - 11 1 - 4 -3 +1 F A+ F -4 C C- D-
 Fri, Jan 9 139 @Oakland L 72 - 97 10% -14  2 - 12 1 - 5 -21 -7 F C+ C- -12 B+ F B
 Sun, Jan 11 286 @Detroit Mercy L 84 - 94 31% -11  2 - 13 1 - 6 -14 +2 A F F -16 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 15 255 Green Bay L 73 - 88 44% -2  2 - 14 1 - 7 -23 +3 B+ F D -28 F F D-
 Sat, Jan 17 213 Youngstown St. W 80 - 78 38% +1  3 - 14 2 - 7 -4 +5 A+ D+ F -9 C- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 154 @Wright St. W 85 - 79 12% -0  4 - 14 3 - 7 +9 +14 A D- A+ -4 A- F F
 Fri, Jan 30 255 @Green Bay L 74 - 81 24%
 Sun, Feb 1 248 @Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 77 - 85 24%
 Wed, Feb 4 139 Oakland L 82 - 90 23%
 Sat, Feb 7 337 @IU Indianapolis L 88 - 89 46%
 Thu, Feb 12 200 Robert Morris L 76 - 80 36%
 Sun, Feb 15 154 Wright St. L 75 - 82 26%
 Wed, Feb 18 213 @Youngstown St. L 75 - 84 20%
 Sun, Feb 22 212 Purdue Fort Wayne L 79 - 82 38%
 Wed, Feb 25 178 Northern Kentucky L 79 - 84 32%
 Sat, Feb 28 200 @Robert Morris L 73 - 83 18%
Totals 7 - 21 6 - 14 -9 -1 C+ D D- -8 D- F D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Horizon Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 3rd
4th 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 0.5 0.0 1.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 1.7 0.1 3.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.8 4.7 0.9 0.0 8.7 8th
9th 0.0 1.2 6.6 9.3 2.7 0.1 20.0 9th
10th 0.9 8.2 18.3 15.9 5.1 0.3 48.7 10th
11th 4.3 7.0 3.9 0.8 0.0 16.1 11th
Total 5.2 15.2 23.5 23.6 17.3 9.6 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Horizon Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.1
11-9 0.3% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.3
10-10 1.3% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 1.3
9-11 3.9% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 3.9
8-12 9.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 9.5
7-13 17.3% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 17.2
6-14 23.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 23.6
5-15 23.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 23.4
4-16 15.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 15.2
3-17 5.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.2
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.0%