Missouri
Southeastern
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+15.1#23
Expected Predictive Rating+18.6#7
Pace68.2#185
Improvement+8.1#2

Offense
Total Offense+9.4#14
First Shot+7.9#20
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#97
Layup/Dunks+4.9#29
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#108
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#242
Freethrows+3.9#15
Improvement+2.7#46

Defense
Total Defense+5.6#47
First Shot+6.4#25
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#256
Layups/Dunks+5.7#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#148
Freethrows+2.0#59
Improvement+5.4#4
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
#1 Seed 1.6% 3.1% 1.1%
Top 2 Seed 7.4% 14.7% 5.0%
Top 4 Seed 40.7% 58.9% 34.8%
Top 6 Seed 74.3% 88.8% 69.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 98.6% 99.9% 98.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 98.6% 99.9% 98.2%
Average Seed 5.2 4.3 5.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 96.0% 99.3% 94.9%
Conference Champion 2.9% 7.2% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.9% 0.1% 1.2%
First Round98.2% 99.9% 97.7%
Second Round74.4% 82.2% 71.8%
Sweet Sixteen35.7% 42.9% 33.4%
Elite Eight14.1% 17.5% 13.0%
Final Four5.4% 7.2% 4.8%
Championship Game1.9% 2.7% 1.6%
National Champion0.6% 1.0% 0.5%

Next Game: Tennessee (Away) - 24.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a5 - 75 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 9
Quad 24 - 012 - 9
Quad 33 - 015 - 10
Quad 48 - 023 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 41   @ Memphis L 75-83 54%     0 - 1 +6.1 +6.4 +0.2
  Nov 08, 2024 310   Howard W 77-62 98%     1 - 1 +3.9 -4.8 +8.9
  Nov 11, 2024 252   Eastern Washington W 84-77 97%     2 - 1 -0.8 +10.7 -11.2
  Nov 14, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 111-39 99.9%    3 - 1 +44.4 +29.8 +16.9
  Nov 22, 2024 302   Pacific W 91-56 98%     4 - 1 +24.5 +18.4 +8.3
  Nov 24, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 112-63 99.7%    5 - 1 +27.7 +14.5 +8.2
  Nov 27, 2024 349   Lindenwood W 81-61 99%     6 - 1 +5.1 +0.6 +3.8
  Dec 03, 2024 116   California W 98-93 91%     7 - 1 +5.4 +15.7 -10.7
  Dec 08, 2024 7   Kansas W 76-67 44%     8 - 1 +25.5 +9.8 +15.3
  Dec 14, 2024 327   LIU Brooklyn W 88-61 99%     9 - 1 +14.3 +18.4 -2.4
  Dec 17, 2024 130   Jacksonville St. W 83-72 92%     10 - 1 +10.3 +20.8 -8.9
  Dec 22, 2024 13   Illinois L 77-80 42%     10 - 2 +14.2 +8.2 +6.2
  Dec 30, 2024 308   Alabama St. W 82-65 98%     11 - 2 +6.0 +2.2 +3.5
  Jan 04, 2025 1   @ Auburn L 68-84 16%     11 - 3 0 - 1 +9.7 +4.4 +5.4
  Jan 07, 2025 71   LSU W 83-67 82%     12 - 3 1 - 1 +21.3 +16.4 +5.4
  Jan 11, 2025 57   Vanderbilt W 75-66 77%     13 - 3 2 - 1 +16.3 +9.5 +7.3
  Jan 14, 2025 4   @ Florida W 83-82 24%     14 - 3 3 - 1 +23.4 +21.6 +1.7
  Jan 18, 2025 43   Arkansas W 83-65 72%     15 - 3 4 - 1 +27.2 +16.0 +11.2
  Jan 21, 2025 30   @ Texas L 53-61 44%     15 - 4 4 - 2 +8.6 -4.5 +12.0
  Jan 25, 2025 26   Mississippi W 83-75 61%     16 - 4 5 - 2 +20.1 +12.9 +6.8
  Feb 01, 2025 35   @ Mississippi St. W 88-61 48%     17 - 4 6 - 2 +42.7 +28.4 +16.3
  Feb 05, 2025 6   @ Tennessee L 64-71 25%    
  Feb 08, 2025 19   Texas A&M W 73-71 59%    
  Feb 12, 2025 34   Oklahoma W 78-74 68%    
  Feb 15, 2025 37   @ Georgia W 72-71 50%    
  Feb 19, 2025 5   Alabama L 84-86 45%    
  Feb 22, 2025 43   @ Arkansas W 75-74 52%    
  Feb 25, 2025 79   South Carolina W 75-65 84%    
  Mar 01, 2025 57   @ Vanderbilt W 79-76 58%    
  Mar 05, 2025 34   @ Oklahoma L 75-76 46%    
  Mar 08, 2025 22   Kentucky W 84-82 59%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 1.0 0.3 2.9 1st
2nd 0.1 2.6 8.1 6.5 1.5 0.1 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.2 10.0 6.7 0.8 0.0 19.6 3rd
4th 0.8 7.7 7.4 0.8 0.0 16.7 4th
5th 0.1 3.8 8.8 1.6 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.9 6.5 3.1 0.1 10.5 6th
7th 0.1 3.0 4.1 0.3 7.4 7th
8th 0.4 3.5 1.0 4.9 8th
9th 0.0 1.3 1.1 0.0 2.5 9th
10th 0.2 1.0 0.2 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.1 8.8 16.2 22.2 21.6 15.7 8.6 2.6 0.4 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 82.5% 0.3    0.2 0.1
15-3 39.2% 1.0    0.4 0.6 0.1
14-4 15.5% 1.3    0.2 0.8 0.3 0.1
13-5 1.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 0.7 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.4% 100.0% 10.0% 90.0% 1.6 0.2 0.2 100.0%
15-3 2.6% 100.0% 8.6% 91.4% 2.3 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 100.0%
14-4 8.6% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 2.9 0.6 2.2 3.8 1.7 0.2 0.0 100.0%
13-5 15.7% 99.9% 6.9% 93.0% 3.6 0.3 1.7 5.4 5.3 2.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 21.6% 100.0% 4.4% 95.6% 4.5 0.0 0.6 3.3 7.2 6.7 3.2 0.6 0.1 100.0%
11-7 22.2% 99.8% 2.1% 97.7% 5.5 0.1 1.2 3.4 6.3 6.4 3.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.8%
10-8 16.2% 99.6% 1.4% 98.2% 6.7 0.1 0.7 2.2 4.3 4.7 3.0 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.6%
9-9 8.8% 97.0% 0.8% 96.2% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 1.9 2.4 1.8 0.8 0.1 0.3 97.0%
8-10 3.1% 82.6% 0.3% 82.3% 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.5 82.6%
7-11 0.8% 51.8% 51.8% 10.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.4 51.8%
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 98.6% 3.7% 94.9% 5.2 1.6 5.8 14.7 18.6 18.4 15.2 11.1 6.7 3.7 2.0 0.8 0.0 1.4 98.6%