Preseason Rankings
Missouri
Southeastern
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.3#37
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace70.3#116
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.1#19
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.2#67
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 4.2% 4.4% 0.3%
Top 4 Seed 13.5% 13.8% 3.2%
Top 6 Seed 26.3% 26.9% 7.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 55.7% 56.5% 26.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 54.2% 55.1% 26.4%
Average Seed 6.6 6.6 7.7
.500 or above 82.7% 83.6% 53.0%
.500 or above in Conference 49.3% 50.0% 26.0%
Conference Champion 4.0% 4.1% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 7.5% 7.2% 17.1%
First Four5.2% 5.2% 4.5%
First Round53.2% 54.1% 24.7%
Second Round36.4% 37.0% 14.7%
Sweet Sixteen15.7% 16.0% 4.8%
Elite Eight6.4% 6.5% 1.8%
Final Four2.5% 2.6% 0.4%
Championship Game1.0% 1.0% 0.3%
National Champion0.4% 0.4% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Away) - 97.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 24 - 210 - 12
Quad 32 - 012 - 12
Quad 48 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 324   @ Howard W 88-68 97%    
  Nov 07, 2025 231   Southeast Missouri St. W 85-65 97%    
  Nov 09, 2025 296   VMI W 87-63 98%    
  Nov 12, 2025 87   Minnesota W 74-64 82%    
  Nov 17, 2025 341   Prairie View W 91-63 99%    
  Nov 20, 2025 294   South Dakota W 98-74 98%    
  Nov 25, 2025 311   South Carolina St. W 88-63 98%    
  Nov 28, 2025 232   Cleveland St. W 81-61 96%    
  Dec 02, 2025 63   @ Notre Dame W 72-71 54%    
  Dec 07, 2025 13   @ Kansas L 71-78 27%    
  Dec 11, 2025 292   Alabama St. W 86-62 98%    
  Dec 14, 2025 246   Bethune-Cookman W 86-65 97%    
  Dec 22, 2025 15   Illinois L 79-83 36%    
  Jan 03, 2026 5   Florida L 76-81 34%    
  Jan 07, 2026 7   @ Kentucky L 75-84 22%    
  Jan 10, 2026 30   @ Mississippi L 73-77 38%    
  Jan 14, 2026 22   Auburn W 77-76 51%    
  Jan 17, 2026 52   @ LSU L 75-76 50%    
  Jan 20, 2026 51   Georgia W 77-71 69%    
  Jan 24, 2026 47   Oklahoma W 79-74 66%    
  Jan 27, 2026 18   @ Alabama L 82-88 30%    
  Jan 31, 2026 33   Mississippi St. W 77-74 59%    
  Feb 07, 2026 70   @ South Carolina W 73-71 57%    
  Feb 11, 2026 35   @ Texas A&M L 72-75 41%    
  Feb 14, 2026 36   Texas W 76-73 60%    
  Feb 18, 2026 41   Vanderbilt W 80-76 63%    
  Feb 21, 2026 17   @ Arkansas L 73-80 29%    
  Feb 24, 2026 16   Tennessee L 68-69 47%    
  Feb 28, 2026 33   @ Mississippi St. L 74-77 39%    
  Mar 03, 2026 47   @ Oklahoma L 76-77 46%    
  Mar 07, 2026 17   Arkansas L 76-77 48%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 4.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 2.0 1.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 5.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 5.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.6 2.7 0.7 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 3.3 1.1 0.1 6.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.7 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 3.3 3.1 0.4 0.0 7.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 3.8 1.1 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.0 2.3 0.1 7.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.9 3.4 0.4 0.0 7.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.8 3.8 1.3 0.0 7.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.4 2.4 0.2 7.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.7 0.5 0.0 6.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.6 0.8 0.1 6.1 14th
15th 0.1 0.5 1.6 2.0 1.0 0.1 5.3 15th
16th 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.1 16th
Total 0.3 0.7 1.9 3.4 5.4 7.6 9.3 10.8 11.4 11.1 10.5 8.9 7.1 5.2 3.2 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 90.8% 0.9    0.7 0.2
15-3 65.5% 1.3    0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-4 29.9% 1.0    0.3 0.4 0.3 0.0
13-5 9.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 100.0% 70.7% 29.3% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 31.2% 68.8% 1.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 0.9% 100.0% 28.4% 71.6% 1.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 1.9% 100.0% 18.3% 81.7% 2.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.2% 100.0% 14.6% 85.4% 3.2 0.3 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 5.2% 100.0% 11.7% 88.3% 4.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-6 7.1% 99.5% 7.1% 92.4% 5.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.4%
11-7 8.9% 98.3% 4.1% 94.2% 6.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 98.3%
10-8 10.5% 93.4% 1.7% 91.8% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.3 1.4 0.8 0.2 0.7 93.3%
9-9 11.1% 82.1% 1.1% 81.0% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.3 2.1 1.7 0.5 2.0 81.9%
8-10 11.4% 53.6% 0.7% 52.9% 9.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.3 2.1 1.1 0.0 5.3 53.3%
7-11 10.8% 23.0% 0.5% 22.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.1 8.3 22.7%
6-12 9.3% 6.8% 0.0% 6.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 8.7 6.8%
5-13 7.6% 0.6% 0.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7.6 0.6%
4-14 5.4% 5.4
3-15 3.4% 3.4
2-16 1.9% 1.9
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 55.7% 3.1% 52.5% 6.6 1.6 2.6 4.0 5.2 6.2 6.7 7.0 7.4 5.9 5.8 3.0 0.1 44.3 54.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.2 82.9 17.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0