Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
6 Florida 93.3%   2   0 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 8 13 - 5 +19.8      +11.4 4 +8.5 10 73.8 59 +5.6 58 0.0 1
7 Kentucky 89.0%   2   0 - 0 0 - 0 22 - 9 12 - 6 +18.7      +10.5 12 +8.2 12 75.1 38 0.0 121 0.0 1
15 Arkansas 84.4%   4   1 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 10 11 - 7 +17.0      +9.0 17 +8.1 15 73.4 62 +7.7 31 0.0 1
17 Tennessee 79.4%   5   1 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 10 10 - 8 +16.3      +6.9 38 +9.4 5 61.1 350 +5.6 57 0.0 1
19 Alabama 76.4%   4   1 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 10 - 8 +16.1      +9.9 14 +6.2 34 85.0 2 +1.4 108 0.0 1
30 Mississippi 62.5%   7   1 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +13.6      +7.1 34 +6.5 29 68.9 171 +4.8 69 0.0 1
31 Vanderbilt 60.8%   8   1 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 11 9 - 9 +13.5      +8.5 23 +5.0 46 72.9 71 +5.5 59 0.0 1
32 Mississippi St. 59.9%   7   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 12 9 - 9 +13.2      +7.5 31 +5.7 40 69.4 152 0.0 121 0.0 1
35 Auburn 53.2%   6   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 8 - 10 +13.0      +8.1 26 +4.9 50 69.6 145 +8.0 30 0.0 1
37 Missouri 57.8%   9   1 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 8 - 10 +12.9      +8.6 21 +4.4 57 70.3 129 +6.6 45 0.0 1
38 Texas 52.0%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 17 - 12 9 - 9 +12.9      +6.9 37 +5.9 37 68.2 195 0.0 121 0.0 1
39 Georgia 52.6%   10   1 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 11 8 - 10 +12.7      +6.4 45 +6.3 32 69.6 146 +0.2 117 0.0 1
40 Texas A&M 52.1%   10   0 - 0 0 - 0 19 - 12 9 - 9 +12.6      +6.5 44 +6.1 36 66.5 235 0.0 121 0.0 1
48 Oklahoma 41.1%   1 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 13 8 - 10 +11.4      +7.2 33 +4.3 63 70.3 127 -2.3 294 0.0 1
56 LSU 28.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 7 - 11 +9.6      +5.0 55 +4.6 54 69.7 141 0.0 121 0.0 1
77 South Carolina 14.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 16 5 - 13 +7.1      +3.0 92 +4.1 66 64.3 298 0.0 121 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Florida 3.8 31.0 17.5 12.0 8.7 6.9 5.8 4.3 3.4 2.9 2.2 1.7 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.2
Kentucky 4.8 22.1 14.3 11.9 9.5 8.0 6.5 5.6 4.9 4.1 3.4 2.8 2.4 1.9 1.4 0.9 0.4
Arkansas 5.4 15.3 13.5 12.0 10.1 8.1 7.7 6.4 5.5 4.9 4.1 3.5 2.9 2.4 1.8 1.2 0.6
Tennessee 6.2 10.8 10.7 9.8 9.3 8.4 8.2 7.3 7.0 5.9 5.2 4.6 3.9 3.4 2.6 1.9 0.9
Alabama 6.3 11.2 10.8 9.8 8.9 8.7 7.7 7.5 6.6 6.0 5.0 4.6 4.0 3.2 2.8 2.1 1.2
Mississippi 8.0 5.0 6.3 6.9 7.6 7.2 7.0 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.1 6.6 6.1 5.6 5.5 4.4 3.1
Vanderbilt 8.4 4.4 5.3 6.2 6.3 6.6 7.2 7.3 7.4 7.0 7.2 7.3 6.6 6.6 6.1 4.9 3.5
Mississippi St. 8.4 5.0 5.8 6.3 6.3 6.7 7.0 6.6 6.8 6.8 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.3 6.2 5.7 4.3
Auburn 8.7 3.7 4.8 5.4 6.3 6.2 6.9 6.9 7.3 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.3 6.9 6.6 5.8 3.9
Missouri 8.6 3.9 5.2 5.5 6.4 6.9 7.0 7.4 7.3 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.1 6.2 6.3 5.4 3.9
Texas 8.4 4.5 5.1 6.2 6.7 6.9 7.2 7.1 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.5 6.2 6.1 5.2 3.8
Georgia 8.7 3.8 4.9 5.6 6.1 6.3 6.9 6.9 7.3 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.0 6.9 6.5 5.4 4.3
Texas A&M 8.6 4.4 5.1 5.7 6.5 6.4 6.9 6.7 7.1 7.3 6.9 7.1 7.1 6.4 6.2 5.8 4.3
Oklahoma 9.7 2.4 3.5 4.2 4.8 5.1 5.9 6.0 6.9 7.0 7.5 7.8 8.0 8.1 8.2 7.8 6.8
LSU 10.9 1.2 2.1 2.7 3.1 3.8 4.3 5.0 5.6 5.9 7.0 8.1 8.5 9.7 10.2 11.3 11.6
South Carolina 12.6 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.4 1.6 2.4 2.9 3.7 4.1 5.0 6.3 7.5 9.7 12.2 16.5 24.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Florida 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.5 4.1 5.7 8.2 10.3 11.7 13.3 13.4 12.1 8.8 5.3 1.7
Kentucky 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.6 3.0 4.4 6.3 7.9 9.7 11.3 12.3 12.2 10.8 8.9 5.9 3.3 0.9
Arkansas 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.3 3.7 5.2 7.5 9.4 11.1 11.8 12.3 11.6 9.5 6.6 4.3 2.1 0.6
Tennessee 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.2 6.9 9.3 11.0 12.2 12.1 11.2 9.4 7.3 4.8 2.8 1.0 0.3
Alabama 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.1 3.5 5.0 6.8 9.2 10.9 11.9 11.7 11.1 9.2 7.5 5.1 2.9 1.2 0.4
Mississippi 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.5 4.2 6.4 8.4 10.2 11.4 11.8 11.1 10.1 8.1 6.3 4.0 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1
Vanderbilt 9 - 9 0.1 0.7 1.6 2.7 4.8 7.2 9.3 10.9 11.6 11.8 10.9 8.9 7.4 5.3 3.6 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1
Mississippi St. 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.9 3.5 5.5 7.0 8.7 10.5 11.2 11.2 10.0 9.4 7.3 5.7 3.7 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1
Auburn 8 - 10 0.2 0.6 1.8 3.4 5.6 7.7 9.7 11.2 12.2 11.5 10.5 8.8 6.9 4.6 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
Missouri 8 - 10 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.1 5.2 7.2 9.6 10.9 11.8 11.7 11.1 9.2 7.1 4.8 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.0
Texas 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.0 5.0 7.0 9.2 10.6 11.7 11.7 10.8 9.3 7.4 5.2 3.5 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
Georgia 8 - 10 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.4 5.3 7.8 9.7 11.3 11.9 11.4 10.5 8.6 7.0 4.9 3.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1
Texas A&M 9 - 9 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.5 7.2 9.6 10.8 11.8 11.0 10.6 9.0 7.0 5.0 3.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Oklahoma 8 - 10 0.3 1.3 3.0 5.0 7.3 9.2 11.5 11.7 11.8 10.8 8.7 7.1 5.1 3.4 2.1 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
LSU 7 - 11 0.7 2.5 5.3 7.5 9.9 11.5 12.5 12.0 10.3 8.8 6.7 4.8 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
South Carolina 5 - 13 2.5 6.2 9.7 12.6 14.1 12.9 11.7 9.5 7.2 5.4 3.5 2.1 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Florida 31.0% 20.9 7.6 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Kentucky 22.1% 14.3 5.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Arkansas 15.3% 9.1 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tennessee 10.8% 6.1 3.3 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Alabama 11.2% 6.5 3.4 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi 5.0% 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Vanderbilt 4.4% 2.3 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Mississippi St. 5.0% 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
Auburn 3.7% 1.8 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Missouri 3.9% 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas 4.5% 2.2 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0
Georgia 3.8% 2.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Texas A&M 4.4% 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma 2.4% 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
LSU 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
South Carolina 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Florida 93.3% 21.1% 72.2% 2   21.1 19.6 15.0 11.0 8.2 6.0 4.1 2.8 2.1 1.8 1.5 0.1 6.7 91.5%
Kentucky 89.0% 16.5% 72.4% 2   16.1 15.3 13.4 10.9 9.2 7.1 5.5 4.2 2.8 2.6 1.9 0.1 0.0 11.0 86.8%
Arkansas 84.4% 10.9% 73.5% 4   9.4 11.8 12.4 11.6 9.9 8.4 6.5 4.8 3.5 3.5 2.4 0.1 0.0 15.6 82.5%
Tennessee 79.4% 9.4% 70.0% 5   6.6 9.3 10.4 10.6 9.3 8.6 7.6 5.5 4.3 4.1 2.9 0.2 0.0 20.6 77.3%
Alabama 76.4% 8.9% 67.5% 4   8.3 10.3 11.2 10.6 9.0 7.1 5.0 3.9 3.3 3.3 3.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 23.6 74.1%
Mississippi 62.5% 4.4% 58.1% 7   2.0 3.9 5.5 6.8 7.3 7.7 7.6 6.8 5.7 5.4 3.5 0.2 37.5 60.8%
Vanderbilt 60.8% 4.1% 56.7% 8   2.0 3.6 5.6 6.2 6.9 7.3 7.6 7.2 5.4 5.2 3.7 0.2 39.2 59.1%
Mississippi St. 59.9% 4.2% 55.7% 7   2.5 4.0 5.6 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.1 6.2 5.3 5.4 3.5 0.2 40.1 58.1%
Auburn 53.2% 3.7% 49.5% 6   2.2 3.7 5.8 6.5 6.8 6.1 4.7 4.1 3.6 4.0 5.2 0.5 0.0 46.8 51.4%
Missouri 57.8% 3.1% 54.7% 9   1.4 2.5 4.6 5.4 6.2 7.2 7.5 7.0 6.4 6.0 3.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 42.2 56.4%
Texas 52.0% 3.5% 48.5% 10   1.4 2.3 3.7 4.8 5.5 6.1 6.7 6.8 5.6 5.5 3.5 0.2 0.0 48.0 50.3%
Georgia 52.6% 3.4% 49.2% 10   1.0 1.9 3.4 4.6 5.4 5.9 7.0 7.7 6.5 6.2 3.1 0.1 47.4 50.9%
Texas A&M 52.1% 3.3% 48.8% 10   1.2 2.2 3.5 4.2 5.3 6.2 6.8 7.3 6.2 6.3 3.0 0.1 0.0 47.9 50.5%
Oklahoma 41.1% 2.0% 39.1% 0.5 1.1 1.8 2.7 3.7 4.7 5.9 6.9 5.8 5.4 2.7 0.1 58.9 39.9%
LSU 28.9% 1.1% 27.8% 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.9 2.4 2.8 3.7 4.3 4.5 4.9 2.5 0.1 71.1 28.1%
South Carolina 14.5% 0.4% 14.1% 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.3 1.8 2.4 2.5 2.9 1.8 0.0 85.5 14.2%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Florida 93.3% 2.1% 92.5% 82.6% 56.3% 32.8% 18.0% 9.4% 4.9%
Kentucky 89.0% 2.7% 87.8% 75.4% 48.5% 27.2% 14.5% 7.3% 3.7%
Arkansas 84.4% 3.7% 82.9% 67.9% 39.5% 19.6% 9.5% 4.4% 1.9%
Tennessee 79.4% 4.5% 77.4% 61.5% 34.0% 16.4% 7.3% 3.2% 1.4%
Alabama 76.4% 5.4% 74.2% 60.2% 33.7% 16.2% 7.4% 3.2% 1.5%
Mississippi 62.5% 5.4% 60.0% 41.9% 18.7% 8.0% 3.3% 1.4% 0.5%
Vanderbilt 60.8% 5.3% 58.1% 40.6% 17.9% 7.8% 3.1% 1.3% 0.5%
Mississippi St. 59.9% 5.4% 57.2% 39.9% 18.0% 7.6% 3.3% 1.4% 0.6%
Auburn 53.2% 7.2% 49.9% 35.5% 16.7% 6.9% 2.7% 1.0% 0.4%
Missouri 57.8% 5.5% 55.0% 37.3% 16.0% 6.3% 2.5% 1.0% 0.4%
Texas 52.0% 5.3% 49.6% 33.4% 14.6% 6.3% 2.6% 1.0% 0.4%
Georgia 52.6% 4.9% 50.4% 33.0% 13.3% 5.4% 2.2% 0.9% 0.3%
Texas A&M 52.1% 4.7% 49.7% 33.3% 13.7% 5.5% 2.3% 0.9% 0.3%
Oklahoma 41.1% 4.1% 39.0% 24.0% 9.0% 3.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2%
LSU 28.9% 4.1% 27.0% 15.5% 5.5% 1.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1%
South Carolina 14.5% 2.7% 13.0% 7.0% 2.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.6 0.0 0.5 4.0 14.7 28.6 29.5 16.5 5.5 0.7 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 9.2 0.1 1.2 6.6 19.8 30.9 25.9 12.0 3.2 0.3 0.0
2nd Round 100.0% 6.9 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.5 11.7 23.4 27.9 20.8 9.3 2.3 0.4 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 99.7% 3.6 0.3 3.9 15.7 28.9 27.9 16.8 5.3 1.0 0.1 0.0
Elite Eight 89.4% 1.7 10.6 32.6 35.9 16.6 4.0 0.3 0.0
Final Four 61.5% 0.8 38.5 44.2 15.4 1.8 0.1
Final Game 34.2% 0.4 65.8 31.1 3.0
Champion 16.9% 0.2 83.1 16.9