Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +15.9 #25
Expected Predictive Rating +15.2 #29
Pace 70.0 #153
Improvement -0.7 #226

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #25 B+ A B+ C+ B-
Defense #27 A- A C+ C A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #101 1.31 #34 +5.0 #36
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #245 0.74 #199 -1.5 #256
Three Pointers 41% #175 1.08 #90 +1.5 #129
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #50 +5.1 #51
Freethrows 17.9 #157 74% #140 13.3 #140
Second Chance 35.7% #47 1.21 #26 0.43 #25
Turnovers 14.0% #49
Total Offense +8.8 #25

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #332 1.09 #92 +5.0 #37
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% #38 0.73 #130 -2.0 #323
Three Pointers 42% #157 0.88 #33 +2.5 #91
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #35 +5.6 #35
Freethrows 16.5 #144 75% #270 12.3 #163
Second Chance 25.5% #29 0.90 #29 0.23 #16
Turnovers 17.2% #126
Total Defense +7.1 #27

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #93 -2.5% #23
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.5% #56 -8.7% #42
Possession Length 15.3 #28 19.0 #355
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.33 #3 0.10 #20
Improvement +0.5 #154 -1.2 #266

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 1.2% 1.4% 0.2%
Top 4 Seed 15.8% 17.6% 7.4%
Top 6 Seed 53.0% 56.8% 35.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.5% 94.3% 83.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.9% 93.9% 83.2%
Average Seed 6.4 6.2 7.2
.500 or above 98.4% 99.2% 94.6%
.500 or above in Conference 83.5% 87.5% 64.6%
Conference Champion 5.3% 6.1% 1.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.7%
First Four4.3% 3.6% 7.6%
First Round90.7% 92.9% 80.6%
Second Round64.9% 67.2% 54.1%
Sweet Sixteen27.0% 28.6% 19.3%
Elite Eight10.0% 10.6% 7.0%
Final Four3.7% 4.0% 2.4%
Championship Game1.4% 1.5% 0.8%
National Champion0.4% 0.5% 0.1%

Next Game: Mississippi (Home) - 82.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 6 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 94 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 28 - 10
Quad 24 - 212 - 13
Quad 31 - 014 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 232 Nicholls St. W 77 - 51 97% +15  1 - 0 +19 -0 C- F A- +19 A+ A+ C
 Fri, Nov 7 167 Valparaiso W 107 - 59 96% +31  2 - 0 +44 +27 A+ D+ A+ +14 A+ A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 11 13 @Louisville L 88 - 96 30% -8  2 - 1 +13 +16 A+ A+ C- -2 A+ A- F
 Fri, Nov 14 310 Eastern Illinois W 99 - 53 99% +27  3 - 1 +34 +28 A+ A+ D+ +7 B+ A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 11 Michigan St. L 66 - 83 35% -11  3 - 2 +3 +6 C- C+ A+ -2 F A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 21 324 Loyola Maryland W 88 - 46 99% +26  4 - 2 +29 +5 C C B +23 A+ A A
 Wed, Nov 26 342 Tennessee Tech W 104 - 54 99% +18  5 - 2 +35 +21 A+ A+ B +13 A+ A F
 Tue, Dec 2 31 North Carolina L 64 - 67 68% +2  5 - 3 +8 +1 C D+ C+ +7 A+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 6 Gonzaga L 59 - 94 33% -21  5 - 4 -14 -5 F A+ A+ -9 F A C-
 Tue, Dec 9 346 NC Central W 103 - 67 99% +19  6 - 4 +21 +20 A+ B+ A+ +0 C A C
 Sat, Dec 13 37 Indiana W 72 - 60 70% -0  7 - 4 +22 +6 F A+ A+ +17 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 18 St. John's W 78 - 66 45% +3  8 - 4 +29 +14 B A+ D+ +15 A+ B+ A
 Tue, Dec 23 300 Bellarmine W 99 - 85 99% +8  9 - 4 +3 +21 A+ A+ C -17 C- F C+
 Sat, Jan 3 17 @Alabama L 74 - 89 32% -11  9 - 5 0 - 1 +6 +6 C- A+ D+ +0 C A- B
 Wed, Jan 7 50 Missouri L 68 - 73 78% +0  9 - 6 0 - 2 +3 -1 C D+ D +3 C A+ C
 Sat, Jan 10 76 Mississippi St. W 92 - 68 85% +4  10 - 6 1 - 2 +29 +24 A+ A+ B- +5 C B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 43 @LSU W 75 - 74 54% -8  11 - 6 2 - 2 +16 +12 B- A- B +4 D+ A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 17 22 @Tennessee W 80 - 78 36% -7  12 - 6 3 - 2 +22 +26 A+ A+ A+ -4 F A+ B
 Wed, Jan 21 38 Texas W 85 - 80 71% +3  13 - 6 4 - 2 +15 +15 B A- A +0 A+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 24 62 Mississippi W 78 - 68 83%
 Tue, Jan 27 21 @Vanderbilt L 78 - 82 34%
 Sat, Jan 31 20 @Arkansas L 81 - 85 34%
 Wed, Feb 4 57 Oklahoma W 82 - 73 80%
 Sat, Feb 7 22 Tennessee W 75 - 73 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 10 @Florida L 75 - 82 25%
 Tue, Feb 17 24 Georgia W 86 - 83 61%
 Sat, Feb 21 27 @Auburn L 78 - 80 44%
 Tue, Feb 24 69 @South Carolina W 76 - 71 67%
 Sat, Feb 28 21 Vanderbilt W 81 - 79 57%
 Tue, Mar 3 34 @Texas A&M L 80 - 81 46%
 Sat, Mar 7 10 Florida L 78 - 79 45%
Totals 19 - 12 10 - 8 +16 +9 B+ A B+ +7 A- A C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.2 0.8 0.1 5.3 1st
2nd 0.2 3.2 4.1 1.0 0.1 8.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.6 6.6 1.9 0.1 11.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 6.9 3.8 0.2 11.7 4th
5th 0.1 4.3 7.0 0.8 0.0 12.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.2 7.9 2.8 0.1 12.0 6th
7th 0.2 4.5 5.6 0.4 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 6.3 1.6 9.3 8th
9th 0.3 3.8 3.4 0.2 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 3.2 0.7 5.1 10th
11th 0.2 1.8 1.2 0.0 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.6 9.9 16.2 20.4 19.9 14.7 8.0 3.3 0.8 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-3 91.6% 0.8    0.6 0.2 0.0
14-4 67.1% 2.2    1.0 1.0 0.3 0.0
13-5 23.3% 1.9    0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 2.2% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 1.9 1.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 2.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.8% 100.0% 29.5% 70.5% 2.6 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-4 3.3% 100.0% 19.3% 80.7% 3.5 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.2 0.5 0.0 100.0%
13-5 8.0% 100.0% 14.5% 85.5% 4.2 0.0 0.2 1.6 3.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 100.0%
12-6 14.7% 100.0% 12.1% 87.9% 4.9 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.3 5.5 3.7 0.7 0.0 100.0%
11-7 19.9% 99.8% 7.4% 92.5% 5.7 0.0 0.3 1.8 5.9 7.3 4.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.8%
10-8 20.4% 99.6% 4.1% 95.4% 6.6 0.1 0.4 2.7 6.1 7.3 3.2 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.5%
9-9 16.2% 96.5% 3.4% 93.1% 8.0 0.0 0.6 1.5 3.2 4.4 3.7 1.8 0.3 0.6 96.4%
8-10 9.9% 80.5% 1.4% 79.1% 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.6 2.5 0.0 1.9 80.2%
7-11 4.6% 34.5% 1.7% 32.8% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.1 0.1 3.0 33.4%
6-12 1.6% 8.7% 0.9% 7.7% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.5 7.8%
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 92.5% 6.9% 85.6% 6.4 7.5 91.9%