Kentucky
Southeastern
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.2#20
Expected Predictive Rating+13.2#42
Pace72.1#107
Improvement+0.7#136

Offense
Total Offense+8.2#30
First Shot+7.2#24
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#112
Layup/Dunks+5.5#27
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#228
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#120
Freethrows+0.5#139
Improvement+0.2#161

Defense
Total Defense+8.0#17
First Shot+6.9#20
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#101
Layups/Dunks+5.7#26
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#290
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#100
Freethrows+0.7#131
Improvement+0.4#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.0% 2.1% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 4.1% 7.7% 2.2%
Top 4 Seed 23.9% 36.2% 17.4%
Top 6 Seed 50.4% 67.1% 41.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.4% 93.4% 79.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.0% 92.5% 78.2%
Average Seed 6.1 5.4 6.6
.500 or above 93.7% 98.0% 91.5%
.500 or above in Conference 75.7% 88.1% 69.2%
Conference Champion 8.3% 15.2% 4.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.1%
First Four5.6% 3.2% 6.9%
First Round82.3% 92.0% 77.2%
Second Round61.2% 73.0% 55.0%
Sweet Sixteen28.6% 37.2% 24.0%
Elite Eight11.3% 15.6% 9.1%
Final Four4.4% 6.2% 3.4%
Championship Game1.6% 2.4% 1.2%
National Champion0.6% 0.9% 0.4%

Next Game: Alabama (Away) - 34.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 5 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 94 - 9
Quad 1b3 - 27 - 11
Quad 25 - 112 - 13
Quad 32 - 013 - 13
Quad 47 - 020 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 234 Nicholls St. W 77-51 98%     1 - 0 +18.6 +1.6 +17.1
  Fri, Nov 7 219 Valparaiso W 107-59 97%     2 - 0 +41.3 +25.2 +12.9
  Tue, Nov 11 13 @Louisville L 88-96 33%     2 - 1 +12.9 +15.7 -2.1
  Fri, Nov 14 325 Eastern Illinois W 99-53 99%     3 - 1 +33.2 +25.1 +9.5
  Tue, Nov 18 16 Michigan St. L 66-83 45%     3 - 2 +0.4 +2.8 -2.2
  Fri, Nov 21 329 Loyola Maryland W 88-46 99%     4 - 2 +29.0 +4.1 +23.7
  Wed, Nov 26 285 Tennessee Tech W 104-54 98%     5 - 2 +40.4 +22.5 +16.0
  Tue, Dec 2 21 North Carolina L 64-67 62%     5 - 3 +10.0 +4.0 +5.7
  Fri, Dec 5 6 Gonzaga L 59-94 30%     5 - 4 -13.5 -5.2 -8.0
  Tue, Dec 9 348 NC Central W 103-67 99%     6 - 4 +20.7 +22.2 -2.4
  Sat, Dec 13 29 Indiana W 72-60 67%     7 - 4 +23.6 +8.6 +15.6
  Sat, Dec 20 19 St. John's W 78-66 49%     8 - 4 +28.4 +14.1 +14.4
  Tue, Dec 23 267 Bellarmine W 99-85 98%     9 - 4 +5.2 +22.9 -17.1
  Sat, Jan 3 15 @Alabama L 85-89 35%    
  Wed, Jan 7 60 Missouri W 83-73 84%    
  Sat, Jan 10 80 Mississippi St. W 82-70 87%    
  Wed, Jan 14 39 @LSU W 78-77 53%    
  Sat, Jan 17 14 @Tennessee L 71-75 34%    
  Wed, Jan 21 41 Texas W 81-74 75%    
  Sat, Jan 24 63 Mississippi W 79-68 84%    
  Tue, Jan 27 9 @Vanderbilt L 76-83 26%    
  Sat, Jan 31 23 @Arkansas L 80-82 42%    
  Wed, Feb 4 45 Oklahoma W 82-74 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 14 Tennessee W 74-72 56%    
  Sat, Feb 14 12 @Florida L 74-79 33%    
  Tue, Feb 17 22 Georgia W 87-84 61%    
  Sat, Feb 21 34 @Auburn L 78-79 50%    
  Tue, Feb 24 90 @South Carolina W 76-69 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 9 Vanderbilt L 79-80 47%    
  Tue, Mar 3 43 @Texas A&M W 82-81 55%    
  Sat, Mar 7 12 Florida W 77-76 55%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southeastern Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.5 2.8 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.1 8.3 1st
2nd 0.1 2.0 4.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 9.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 4.6 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.6 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 4.7 4.4 0.7 0.0 10.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 5.5 1.3 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 5.4 2.8 0.1 9.7 6th
7th 0.3 3.8 4.3 0.6 0.0 8.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.6 4.9 1.5 0.0 8.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 3.6 2.7 0.2 7.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.4 0.7 0.0 5.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 2.6 1.2 0.1 4.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 3.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 2.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 15th
16th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.9 4.1 6.7 10.4 13.5 14.9 15.4 12.7 9.1 5.8 2.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 Total



Southeastern Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
16-2 96.6% 1.0    0.8 0.1
15-3 80.5% 2.4    1.5 0.7 0.1
14-4 48.1% 2.8    1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 16.6% 1.5    0.2 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.3% 8.3 4.0 2.7 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.3% 100.0% 27.4% 72.6% 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-2 1.0% 100.0% 25.3% 74.7% 2.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 2.9% 100.0% 26.1% 73.9% 2.7 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
14-4 5.8% 100.0% 21.9% 78.1% 3.3 0.2 0.9 2.3 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 9.1% 100.0% 18.0% 82.0% 4.0 0.1 0.5 2.2 3.5 2.2 0.5 0.1 100.0%
12-6 12.7% 100.0% 12.2% 87.8% 4.8 0.0 0.2 1.3 3.5 4.3 2.6 0.8 0.1 100.0%
11-7 15.4% 99.7% 7.9% 91.7% 5.7 0.0 0.5 2.1 4.2 4.5 3.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.6%
10-8 14.9% 99.2% 4.8% 94.4% 6.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 3.7 4.6 2.7 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.2%
9-9 13.5% 93.8% 3.8% 90.0% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.3 3.1 2.9 2.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 93.6%
8-10 10.4% 72.9% 2.2% 70.7% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.0 0.1 2.8 72.3%
7-11 6.7% 28.7% 1.4% 27.3% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.8 27.7%
6-12 4.1% 5.0% 1.0% 3.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.9 4.0%
5-13 1.9% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 1.9 0.2%
4-14 0.8% 0.8
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 84.4% 8.4% 76.0% 6.1 1.0 3.1 7.8 12.0 13.9 12.7 11.2 7.2 5.5 4.9 4.9 0.4 0.0 15.6 83.0%