Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.3#214
Expected Predictive Rating-1.6#195
Pace66.0#274
Improvement+3.5#15

Offense
Total Offense-3.8#272
First Shot-6.0#327
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#68
Layup/Dunks-8.4#359
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.6#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#266
Freethrows+0.5#150
Improvement+1.0#99

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#150
First Shot+1.6#123
After Offensive Rebounds-1.0#257
Layups/Dunks+0.6#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#70
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#154
Freethrows-1.6#284
Improvement+2.5#19
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.1% 1.6% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.0
.500 or above 19.7% 30.8% 13.9%
.500 or above in Conference 17.9% 22.5% 15.5%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.3% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 21.8% 16.2% 24.7%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round1.0% 1.6% 0.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 34.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 34 - 75 - 16
Quad 48 - 313 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 325 Eastern Illinois W 66-63 80%     1 - 0 -9.2 -10.6 +1.4
  Fri, Nov 7 23 @Kentucky L 59-107 3%     1 - 1 -30.0 -8.9 -17.9
  Wed, Nov 12 265 Nicholls St. W 68-63 70%     2 - 1 -3.8 -0.3 -3.0
  Sun, Nov 16 295 Bryant W 68-50 76%     3 - 1 +7.5 -0.5 +10.0
  Wed, Nov 19 308 @Cleveland St. W 90-75 57%     4 - 1 +9.9 +13.0 -2.9
  Wed, Nov 26 317 Southern Indiana L 56-64 79%     4 - 2 -19.6 -21.4 +1.8
  Sat, Nov 29 267 Western Michigan W 84-55 71%     5 - 2 +20.1 +12.8 +9.5
  Tue, Dec 2 83 @Marquette L 72-75 OT 11%     5 - 3 +6.9 -1.7 +8.9
  Sat, Dec 13 109 UNC Wilmington L 65-69 34%    
  Tue, Dec 16 60 @Northwestern L 62-77 8%    
  Sun, Dec 21 113 Murray St. L 73-77 36%    
  Mon, Dec 29 87 @Northern Iowa L 57-69 13%    
  Thu, Jan 1 142 @Southern Illinois L 67-75 24%    
  Sun, Jan 4 204 Illinois-Chicago W 71-69 59%    
  Wed, Jan 7 101 Illinois St. L 66-71 32%    
  Sat, Jan 10 113 @Murray St. L 70-80 18%    
  Tue, Jan 13 88 @Belmont L 66-78 14%    
  Sat, Jan 17 87 Northern Iowa L 60-66 29%    
  Wed, Jan 21 142 Southern Illinois L 70-72 45%    
  Wed, Jan 28 88 Belmont L 69-75 29%    
  Sat, Jan 31 196 @Indiana St. L 70-74 36%    
  Tue, Feb 3 124 @Bradley L 63-72 21%    
  Fri, Feb 6 279 Evansville W 69-63 72%    
  Mon, Feb 9 128 @Drake L 62-71 22%    
  Thu, Feb 12 101 @Illinois St. L 63-74 16%    
  Sun, Feb 15 196 Indiana St. W 73-71 57%    
  Wed, Feb 18 124 Bradley L 66-69 39%    
  Sat, Feb 21 204 @Illinois-Chicago L 68-72 37%    
  Wed, Feb 25 128 Drake L 65-68 40%    
  Sat, Feb 28 279 @Evansville W 67-66 51%    
Projected Record 12 - 18 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 2.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 2.3 2.2 0.5 0.0 5.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 3.0 3.2 0.9 0.0 8.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.5 4.2 4.2 1.1 0.1 11.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 5.6 5.3 1.6 0.1 15.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 3.4 6.7 5.3 1.8 0.1 18.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 2.1 5.6 6.7 4.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 20.2 10th
11th 0.2 1.0 2.9 4.1 3.4 1.8 0.4 0.1 14.0 11th
Total 0.2 1.1 3.4 6.3 9.8 12.2 13.6 13.8 12.3 9.6 7.2 4.8 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 86.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-5 68.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1
14-6 24.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 6.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 27.6% 27.6% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 10.5% 10.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 0.9% 16.0% 16.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-7 1.6% 7.0% 7.0% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
12-8 3.0% 5.3% 5.3% 13.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.8
11-9 4.8% 2.8% 2.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.7
10-10 7.2% 2.9% 2.9% 14.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.0
9-11 9.6% 0.6% 0.6% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 9.5
8-12 12.3% 0.5% 0.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 12.2
7-13 13.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 13.7
6-14 13.6% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 13.5
5-15 12.2% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.2
4-16 9.8% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.8
3-17 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.3
2-18 3.4% 3.4
1-19 1.1% 1.1
0-20 0.2% 0.2
Total 100% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 13.9 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 99.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%