Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.8 #167
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #170
Pace 65.8 #273
Improvement +5.5 #8

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #228 D C B- B F
Defense #123 B- B C D+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #343 1.11 #245 -5.4 #341
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #22 0.68 #288 +2.7 #55
Three Pointers 39% #223 1.04 #154 -0.7 #198
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #276 -3.4 #276
Freethrows 20.5 #37 71% #231 14.6 #68
Second Chance 30.2% #198 1.01 #231 0.30 #203
Turnovers 15.2% #99
Total Offense -2.2 #228

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #149 1.24 #277 -2.3 #258
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #93 0.57 #6 +1.1 #102
Three Pointers 37% #284 0.94 #82 +3.4 #56
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #110 +2.3 #111
Freethrows 18.6 #248 73% #219 13.7 #261
Second Chance 31.8% #243 0.87 #19 0.28 #81
Turnovers 16.7% #166
Total Defense +1.4 #123

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.7% #349 -0.4% #122
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.0% #223 -4.1% #102
Possession Length 18.2 #268 17.3 #184
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.08 #360 0.14 #86
Improvement +3.6 #20 +1.9 #70

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 2.8% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.5 14.2
.500 or above 31.6% 48.1% 23.6%
.500 or above in Conference 37.9% 56.7% 28.8%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.1% 0.8% 2.7%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round2.1% 2.8% 1.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 32.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 61 - 8
Quad 35 - 66 - 15
Quad 49 - 215 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 310 Eastern Illinois W 66 - 63 84% +5  1 - 0 -9 -8 F D D- -1 D A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 25 @Kentucky L 59 - 107 4% -31  1 - 1 -29 -9 F D- A+ -17 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 12 232 Nicholls St. W 68 - 63 72% +3  2 - 1 -2 -2 F F A+ +0 B- F A+
 Sun, Nov 16 343 Bryant W 68 - 50 90% +4  3 - 1 +3 -2 F C+ B+ +8 A+ D- C
 Wed, Nov 19 316 @Cleveland St. W 90 - 75 71% +12  4 - 1 +9 +12 B B- B- -3 B- B F
 Wed, Nov 26 329 Southern Indiana L 56 - 64 88% -6  4 - 2 -22 -20 F C B- -1 D+ F A+
 Sat, Nov 29 260 Western Michigan W 84 - 55 77% +14  5 - 2 +21 +12 B A+ D- +11 A+ D- A+
 Tue, Dec 2 102 @Marquette L 72 - 75 OT 21% +2  5 - 3 +5 -3 C+ C F +8 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 125 UNC Wilmington L 70 - 73 49% +2  5 - 4 -4 +4 F A+ A+ -8 B F D+
 Tue, Dec 16 60 @Northwestern L 70 - 86 12% -12  5 - 5 -4 +3 B- B F -8 F C D
 Sun, Dec 21 97 Murray St. L 79 - 85 38% +2  5 - 6 0 - 1 -4 +3 B C C+ -6 D- A+ C
 Mon, Dec 29 110 @Northern Iowa L 48 - 58 24% -3  5 - 7 0 - 2 -3 -6 F F A +1 C+ C B+
 Thu, Jan 1 146 @Southern Illinois L 70 - 75 32% -5  5 - 8 0 - 3 -1 -3 F F A+ +2 A B F
 Sun, Jan 4 151 Illinois-Chicago W 66 - 59 57% -1  6 - 8 1 - 3 +5 +2 D D B +3 C B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 7 90 Illinois St. W 77 - 71 34% +5  7 - 8 2 - 3 +9 +12 A+ F C -2 A C D
 Sat, Jan 10 97 @Murray St. L 79 - 92 19% -6  7 - 9 2 - 4 -5 +2 B+ D+ F -6 F A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 13 82 @Belmont L 74 - 78 15% -3  7 - 10 2 - 5 +6 +10 D+ A+ B- -5 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 110 Northern Iowa W 54 - 44 44% +2  8 - 10 3 - 5 +11 -3 F B+ A+ +16 A+ B C
 Wed, Jan 21 146 Southern Illinois W 69 - 63 55% +11  9 - 10 4 - 5 +4 +5 A- D- B -0 A A- C+
 Wed, Jan 28 82 Belmont L 72 - 77 32%
 Sat, Jan 31 188 @Indiana St. L 71 - 73 43%
 Tue, Feb 3 119 @Bradley L 67 - 74 28%
 Fri, Feb 6 271 Evansville W 71 - 63 78%
 Mon, Feb 9 158 @Drake L 67 - 71 35%
 Thu, Feb 12 90 @Illinois St. L 64 - 74 18%
 Sun, Feb 15 188 Indiana St. W 74 - 70 64%
 Wed, Feb 18 119 Bradley L 70 - 71 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 151 @Illinois-Chicago L 66 - 70 34%
 Wed, Feb 25 158 Drake W 70 - 68 57%
 Sat, Feb 28 271 @Evansville W 68 - 66 59%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 11 -1 -2 D C B- +1 B- B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.1 0.1 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 3.8 2.6 0.2 7.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 6.0 5.5 0.6 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.6 6.4 8.3 1.6 0.0 16.9 6th
7th 0.5 5.3 10.4 2.8 0.1 19.2 7th
8th 0.4 4.3 9.7 3.6 0.2 18.2 8th
9th 0.3 2.8 6.5 3.6 0.2 13.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.5 0.1 5.8 10th
11th 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 11th
Total 0.2 2.0 6.1 12.8 19.3 21.6 18.2 11.6 5.6 2.0 0.4 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 75.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 23.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0
14-6 0.4% 9.4% 9.4% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 2.0% 6.8% 6.8% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.8
12-8 5.6% 6.4% 6.4% 13.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.3
11-9 11.6% 5.3% 5.3% 13.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 11.0
10-10 18.2% 2.4% 2.4% 14.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 17.8
9-11 21.6% 1.0% 1.0% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 21.4
8-12 19.3% 0.8% 0.8% 15.4 0.1 0.1 19.2
7-13 12.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.7
6-14 6.1% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.1
5-15 2.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-16 0.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.0 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 13.9 97.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%