Valparaiso
Missouri Valley
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.5#226
Expected Predictive Rating-4.1#231
Pace70.1#129
Improvement-0.3#208

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#183
First Shot-3.0#265
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#32
Layup/Dunks-3.0#291
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.5#258
Freethrows+2.1#70
Improvement-1.0#253

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#267
First Shot-2.0#242
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#285
Layups/Dunks-4.6#330
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#276
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#39
Freethrows-0.2#195
Improvement+0.7#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.6% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.4 15.8
.500 or above 1.6% 3.9% 0.4%
.500 or above in Conference 1.0% 2.6% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 20.4% 11.0% 25.5%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
First Round0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Indiana St. (Away) - 35.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 60 - 8
Quad 33 - 74 - 15
Quad 48 - 412 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 90   Liberty L 63-83 18%     0 - 1 -13.8 -2.9 -11.7
  Nov 12, 2024 157   Cleveland St. L 67-75 44%     0 - 2 -10.0 -3.5 -6.7
  Nov 21, 2024 349   Lindenwood W 77-64 86%     1 - 2 -1.9 -3.2 +0.9
  Nov 24, 2024 332   Eastern Illinois W 81-53 82%     2 - 2 +14.8 +14.9 +3.7
  Nov 27, 2024 338   Northern Illinois W 87-82 84%     3 - 2 -9.1 +3.4 -12.8
  Nov 29, 2024 112   @ DePaul L 70-89 19%     3 - 3 -13.3 +1.0 -14.8
  Dec 05, 2024 73   Drake L 60-66 21%     3 - 4 0 - 1 -0.9 -1.5 -0.3
  Dec 14, 2024 225   Central Michigan W 93-77 59%     4 - 4 +10.0 +8.3 +0.0
  Dec 17, 2024 25   @ Ohio St. L 73-95 4%     4 - 5 -4.9 +4.0 -7.4
  Dec 20, 2024 306   @ Western Michigan W 76-73 59%     5 - 5 -2.9 +0.6 -3.4
  Dec 29, 2024 94   @ Bradley L 75-81 2OT 14%     5 - 6 0 - 2 +2.3 -0.8 +3.7
  Jan 01, 2025 223   @ Missouri St. W 73-72 40%     6 - 6 1 - 2 +0.1 +12.1 -11.9
  Jan 04, 2025 108   Northern Iowa W 80-73 31%     7 - 6 2 - 2 +8.5 +8.8 -0.1
  Jan 08, 2025 210   Indiana St. W 98-95 OT 56%     8 - 6 3 - 2 -2.1 +4.8 -7.4
  Jan 11, 2025 171   @ Murray St. L 47-58 29%     8 - 7 3 - 3 -8.8 -20.0 +10.0
  Jan 14, 2025 140   @ Belmont L 64-71 24%     8 - 8 3 - 4 -3.2 -14.7 +11.9
  Jan 18, 2025 123   Illinois-Chicago L 74-81 38%     8 - 9 3 - 5 -7.4 -0.5 -6.9
  Jan 22, 2025 73   @ Drake L 71-81 11%     8 - 10 3 - 6 +0.1 +10.8 -11.9
  Jan 25, 2025 230   Evansville L 68-78 61%     8 - 11 3 - 7 -16.4 -8.3 -7.7
  Jan 28, 2025 183   Southern Illinois L 75-79 51%     8 - 12 3 - 8 -7.6 +1.1 -8.7
  Feb 01, 2025 135   @ Illinois St. L 78-86 24%     8 - 13 3 - 9 -4.0 +12.7 -17.5
  Feb 05, 2025 210   @ Indiana St. L 80-83 35%    
  Feb 08, 2025 171   Murray St. L 72-73 50%    
  Feb 12, 2025 140   Belmont L 82-84 42%    
  Feb 16, 2025 230   @ Evansville L 70-72 40%    
  Feb 19, 2025 223   Missouri St. W 71-69 60%    
  Feb 22, 2025 183   @ Southern Illinois L 73-78 31%    
  Feb 26, 2025 94   Bradley L 69-76 28%    
  Mar 02, 2025 123   @ Illinois-Chicago L 74-82 21%    
Projected Record 11 - 18 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 0.5 1.4 6th
7th 1.2 1.8 0.1 3.2 7th
8th 0.6 4.7 0.9 6.1 8th
9th 0.3 5.5 4.4 0.2 10.4 9th
10th 0.4 6.5 10.4 1.2 18.5 10th
11th 0.7 6.9 19.0 19.2 4.3 0.1 50.1 11th
12th 2.0 4.4 2.9 0.5 0.0 9.8 12th
Total 2.6 11.3 22.3 26.5 20.8 11.7 3.9 1.0 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10 1.0% 4.1% 4.1% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.9
9-11 3.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 3.9
8-12 11.7% 0.8% 0.8% 15.2 0.1 0.0 11.6
7-13 20.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 20.7
6-14 26.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 26.5
5-15 22.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 22.2
4-16 11.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.2
3-17 2.6% 2.6
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.0%