Western Michigan
Mid-American
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.2#296
Expected Predictive Rating-11.3#329
Pace68.3#201
Improvement+1.0#117

Offense
Total Offense-2.7#245
First Shot-5.6#331
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#36
Layup/Dunks+1.8#116
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#91
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#350
Freethrows-2.2#298
Improvement+1.6#64

Defense
Total Defense-4.5#313
First Shot-5.2#333
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#120
Layups/Dunks-4.3#329
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#75
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.9#293
Freethrows+0.7#143
Improvement-0.5#222
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 3.2% 1.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.0 15.8
.500 or above 3.5% 16.3% 3.3%
.500 or above in Conference 32.3% 50.8% 32.2%
Conference Champion 1.1% 4.5% 1.1%
Last Place in Conference 10.7% 5.7% 10.7%
First Four1.1% 1.6% 1.1%
First Round1.0% 2.3% 1.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Michigan St. (Away) - 0.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 32 - 62 - 11
Quad 47 - 910 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 268   @ Coastal Carolina L 56-60 33%     0 - 1 -6.7 -11.6 +4.5
  Nov 11, 2024 74   @ Butler L 65-85 6%     0 - 2 -9.5 -4.1 -5.3
  Nov 15, 2024 269   SIU Edwardsville L 60-79 56%     0 - 3 -27.7 -12.2 -16.3
  Nov 17, 2024 350   Canisius W 92-69 78%     1 - 3 +7.7 +11.6 -3.5
  Nov 20, 2024 235   South Dakota L 76-80 50%     1 - 4 -11.1 -8.2 -2.7
  Nov 27, 2024 195   @ Youngstown St. W 73-62 21%     2 - 4 +12.5 +6.9 +6.0
  Dec 03, 2024 46   @ Dayton L 69-77 4%     2 - 5 +5.6 +13.3 -9.1
  Dec 13, 2024 142   @ St. Thomas L 71-77 15%     2 - 6 -2.2 +3.2 -5.8
  Dec 15, 2024 130   @ North Dakota St. L 62-98 13%     2 - 7 -31.2 -9.7 -22.9
  Dec 20, 2024 226   Valparaiso L 73-76 47%     2 - 8 -9.5 -4.2 -5.2
  Dec 30, 2024 15   @ Michigan St. L 60-85 1%    
  Jan 04, 2025 211   Toledo L 78-80 43%    
  Jan 07, 2025 267   Bowling Green W 76-75 56%    
  Jan 11, 2025 209   @ Miami (OH) L 68-76 23%    
  Jan 14, 2025 113   @ Kent St. L 60-74 11%    
  Jan 18, 2025 330   Buffalo W 77-71 70%    
  Jan 21, 2025 346   Northern Illinois W 77-69 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 225   @ Central Michigan L 69-76 26%    
  Jan 28, 2025 288   @ Ball St. L 71-74 39%    
  Feb 01, 2025 317   Eastern Michigan W 76-71 66%    
  Feb 04, 2025 149   @ Ohio L 71-82 17%    
  Feb 11, 2025 163   @ Akron L 72-82 19%    
  Feb 15, 2025 209   Miami (OH) L 71-73 43%    
  Feb 18, 2025 330   @ Buffalo L 74-75 49%    
  Feb 22, 2025 225   Central Michigan L 72-73 47%    
  Feb 25, 2025 149   Ohio L 74-79 34%    
  Mar 01, 2025 346   @ Northern Illinois W 74-72 57%    
  Mar 04, 2025 113   Kent St. L 63-71 25%    
  Mar 07, 2025 267   @ Bowling Green L 73-78 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mid-American Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 4.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.5 0.7 0.0 5.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.8 1.1 0.1 7.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 2.5 5.0 2.0 0.2 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 2.5 6.0 3.4 0.4 0.0 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.4 6.5 4.5 0.7 0.0 14.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.2 6.1 4.8 1.0 0.0 14.3 9th
10th 0.3 2.0 4.9 4.4 1.1 0.0 12.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.6 3.0 0.8 0.0 9.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.0 1.4 0.4 0.0 5.6 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 4.1 7.3 10.8 13.9 15.1 14.4 12.0 8.7 5.8 3.3 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Mid-American Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 81.6% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 50.7% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-5 21.6% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 25.0% 25.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 12.5% 12.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.7% 10.1% 10.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
13-5 1.5% 7.2% 7.2% 15.5 0.1 0.1 1.4
12-6 3.3% 5.4% 5.4% 15.7 0.1 0.1 3.1
11-7 5.8% 4.5% 4.5% 16.0 0.0 0.3 5.6
10-8 8.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.3 8.4
9-9 12.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.3 11.7
8-10 14.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.2 14.2
7-11 15.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 15.1
6-12 13.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 13.9
5-13 10.8% 10.8
4-14 7.3% 7.3
3-15 4.1% 4.1
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%