Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.6 #329
Expected Predictive Rating -16.9 #354
Pace 69.2 #171
Improvement +1.2 #121

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #355 F F C D- C-
Defense #229 D+ B D C F

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #303 0.89 #364 -7.1 #353
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #157 0.64 #322 -0.8 #220
Three Pointers 44% #119 0.88 #333 -1.4 #231
1st FG Attempt 0.83 #363 -9.4 #363
Freethrows 16.4 #239 64% #361 10.4 #309
Second Chance 25.5% #316 0.84 #359 0.21 #354
Turnovers 16.4% #172
Total Offense -8.9 #355

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 51% #2 1.18 #208 -7.5 #360
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #234 0.71 #112 +1.1 #104
Three Pointers 31% #362 1.11 #300 +3.6 #50
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #267 -2.7 #269
Freethrows 17.5 #196 72% #141 12.6 #184
Second Chance 31.1% #206 0.86 #15 0.27 #58
Turnovers 14.5% #296
Total Defense -1.7 #229

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.8% #246 2.3% #350
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -17.6% #364 3.0% #234
Possession Length 18.2 #263 15.9 #18
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #326 0.24 #344
Improvement -0.1 #186 +1.3 #104

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.0% 1.3% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 23.5% 14.3% 48.7%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Illinois (Home) - 73.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 31 - 51 - 6
Quad 45 - 156 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 59 @Butler L 58 - 88 3% -18  0 - 1 -17 -14 F F B- -2 C A+ B-
 Fri, Nov 7 349 VMI L 74 - 78 68% +3  0 - 2 -19 -15 F F B+ -4 C- B- F
 Wed, Nov 12 283 @South Dakota L 74 - 89 26% -9  0 - 3 -19 -15 F F F -2 B F A+
 Thu, Nov 20 223 Incarnate Word L 81 - 87 25% -8  0 - 4 -10 +3 C+ F A- -13 F C C
 Sat, Nov 22 151 Illinois-Chicago L 73 - 84 15% -11  0 - 5 -10 -2 C+ F C+ -8 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 167 @Valparaiso W 64 - 56 12% +6  1 - 5 +10 -6 D B- F +16 A+ B- D
 Wed, Dec 3 260 @Western Michigan L 74 - 88 22% -13  1 - 6 -16 -4 D F A -12 F D+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 188 @Indiana St. L 55 - 77 14% -11  1 - 7 -21 -13 F F B- -9 F A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 282 Arkansas Little Rock L 62 - 77 47% -4  1 - 8 0 - 1 -25 -14 F D B -12 F A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 302 Morehead St. L 60 - 64 OT 52% +5  1 - 9 0 - 2 -15 -14 F F F -2 B+ A+ F
 Thu, Jan 1 257 @SIU Edwardsville L 55 - 59 21% -6  1 - 10 0 - 3 -6 -12 F D F +6 A D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 237 @Lindenwood L 80 - 83 19% -5  1 - 11 0 - 4 -4 +7 B D- D- -11 C F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 245 Southeast Missouri St. L 76 - 84 39% -5  1 - 12 0 - 5 -16 +1 D- B- F -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 226 Tennessee Martin L 56 - 73 36% +17  1 - 13 0 - 6 -24 -11 F D F -15 F A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 342 @Tennessee Tech W 71 - 54 42% -0  2 - 13 1 - 6 +8 -3 F F A+ +12 A A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 241 @Tennessee St. L 67 - 73 19% -4  2 - 14 1 - 7 -7 -4 F F D -3 D- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 310 Eastern Illinois L 51 - 59 OT 54% +3  2 - 15 1 - 8 -20 -24 F D- F +5 A+ B+ C-
 Fri, Jan 23 356 Western Illinois W 69 - 63 73%
 Thu, Jan 29 237 Lindenwood L 71 - 74 37%
 Sat, Jan 31 257 SIU Edwardsville L 64 - 66 41%
 Thu, Feb 5 226 @Tennessee Martin L 61 - 71 18%
 Sat, Feb 7 245 @Southeast Missouri St. L 66 - 75 20%
 Thu, Feb 12 241 Tennessee St. L 73 - 76 39%
 Sat, Feb 14 342 Tennessee Tech W 72 - 68 64%
 Thu, Feb 19 356 @Western Illinois W 66 - 65 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 310 @Eastern Illinois L 62 - 67 32%
 Tue, Feb 24 302 @Morehead St. L 68 - 73 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 282 @Arkansas Little Rock L 66 - 73 27%
Totals 6 - 22 5 - 15 -11 -9 F F C -2 D+ B D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.3 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.0 3.0 1.4 0.1 6.9 8th
9th 0.2 2.9 9.2 13.8 10.8 3.8 0.4 41.2 9th
10th 0.5 5.0 12.1 11.6 5.3 1.4 0.1 36.1 10th
11th 0.7 3.1 5.3 3.4 0.8 0.1 13.4 11th
Total 0.7 3.5 10.4 18.5 21.7 19.7 14.2 7.4 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8 0.0% 0.0
11-9 0.1% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
10-10 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
9-11 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 2.8
8-12 7.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 7.4
7-13 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.1
6-14 19.7% 19.7
5-15 21.7% 21.7
4-16 18.5% 18.5
3-17 10.4% 10.4
2-18 3.5% 3.5
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.7%