Southern Indiana
Ohio Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.4#339
Expected Predictive Rating-17.9#355
Pace72.0#109
Improvement-2.6#324

Offense
Total Offense-8.1#350
First Shot-4.0#297
After Offensive Rebound-4.1#354
Layup/Dunks-7.7#358
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#95
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#113
Freethrows+0.2#162
Improvement-0.1#185

Defense
Total Defense-3.2#286
First Shot-7.5#359
After Offensive Rebounds+4.2#3
Layups/Dunks-8.9#363
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#100
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#87
Freethrows-2.2#319
Improvement-2.4#328
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 1.2% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.6% 2.1% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 8.9% 19.7% 6.4%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 35.3% 19.4% 39.0%
First Four0.5% 1.0% 0.4%
First Round0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SIU Edwardsville (Away) - 19.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 00 - 1
Quad 31 - 61 - 7
Quad 46 - 157 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 50 @Butler L 58-88 2%     0 - 1 -16.7 -12.6 -2.1
  Fri, Nov 7 332 VMI L 74-78 58%     0 - 2 -17.3 -15.4 -1.5
  Wed, Nov 12 291 @South Dakota L 74-89 24%     0 - 3 -18.8 -15.1 -1.3
  Thu, Nov 20 162 Incarnate Word L 81-87 15%     0 - 4 -6.3 +1.9 -7.9
  Sat, Nov 22 200 Illinois-Chicago L 73-84 20%     0 - 5 -13.4 -4.9 -7.9
  Wed, Nov 26 219 @Valparaiso W 64-56 16%     1 - 5 +7.3 -8.1 +15.3
  Wed, Dec 3 280 @Western Michigan L 74-88 22%     1 - 6 -17.3 -4.2 -12.7
  Sun, Dec 7 201 @Indiana St. L 55-77 14%     1 - 7 -21.5 -12.3 -10.8
  Thu, Dec 18 309 Arkansas Little Rock L 62-77 50%     1 - 8 0 - 1 -26.5 -13.2 -13.9
  Sat, Dec 20 307 Morehead St. L 60-64 OT 50%     1 - 9 0 - 2 -15.4 -10.9 -4.9
  Thu, Jan 1 249 @SIU Edwardsville L 63-72 19%    
  Sat, Jan 3 229 @Lindenwood L 70-80 17%    
  Thu, Jan 8 215 Southeast Missouri St. L 73-78 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 214 Tennessee Martin L 67-72 33%    
  Thu, Jan 15 285 @Tennessee Tech L 70-78 24%    
  Sat, Jan 17 237 @Tennessee St. L 68-78 18%    
  Thu, Jan 22 325 Eastern Illinois W 69-68 55%    
  Sat, Jan 24 356 Western Illinois W 71-66 69%    
  Thu, Jan 29 229 Lindenwood L 73-77 35%    
  Sat, Jan 31 249 SIU Edwardsville L 66-69 38%    
  Thu, Feb 5 214 @Tennessee Martin L 64-75 17%    
  Sat, Feb 7 215 @Southeast Missouri St. L 70-81 16%    
  Thu, Feb 12 237 Tennessee St. L 71-75 37%    
  Sat, Feb 14 285 Tennessee Tech L 73-75 44%    
  Thu, Feb 19 356 @Western Illinois L 68-69 48%    
  Sat, Feb 21 325 @Eastern Illinois L 66-71 34%    
  Tue, Feb 24 307 @Morehead St. L 67-73 30%    
  Sat, Feb 28 309 @Arkansas Little Rock L 67-73 30%    
Projected Record 7 - 21 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Ohio Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 1.7 0.8 0.1 3.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 2.4 1.5 0.1 4.6 6th
7th 0.1 0.8 3.2 3.0 0.5 0.0 7.5 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 4.3 4.5 1.1 0.0 11.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.5 6.1 6.0 2.0 0.1 17.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.5 2.4 6.1 9.0 6.9 2.2 0.2 27.3 10th
11th 0.4 2.0 4.9 6.9 6.3 3.4 0.9 0.1 24.8 11th
Total 0.4 2.1 5.3 9.3 12.9 14.9 15.2 13.3 10.4 7.3 4.4 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Ohio Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 81.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 57.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 24.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 2.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.2% 20.4% 20.4% 16.0 0.0 0.1
13-7 0.5% 15.0% 15.0% 16.0 0.1 0.4
12-8 1.3% 5.2% 5.2% 16.0 0.1 1.2
11-9 2.5% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.1 2.4
10-10 4.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 4.3
9-11 7.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 7.2
8-12 10.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 10.3
7-13 13.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 13.3
6-14 15.2% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.2
5-15 14.9% 14.9
4-16 12.9% 12.9
3-17 9.3% 9.3
2-18 5.3% 5.3
1-19 2.1% 2.1
0-20 0.4% 0.4
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 0.6 99.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%