Butler
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.5 #59
Expected Predictive Rating +10.9 #53
Pace 74.4 #50
Improvement -3.9 #335

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #56 B A+ B- B B
Defense #79 B+ B C A- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #72 1.24 #92 +4.2 #48
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #300 0.81 #103 -1.7 #266
Three Pointers 42% #151 1.06 #113 +1.8 #119
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #62 +4.3 #62
Freethrows 20.4 #40 71% #237 14.6 #72
Second Chance 36.1% #40 1.27 #9 0.46 #13
Turnovers 15.4% #110
Total Offense +5.9 #56

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #42 1.12 #132 -2.6 #268
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #143 0.58 #10 +1.5 #81
Three Pointers 34% #343 0.89 #48 +5.5 #13
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #52 +4.4 #52
Freethrows 13.3 #25 73% #181 9.7 #24
Second Chance 29.6% #137 0.92 #40 0.27 #73
Turnovers 16.8% #163
Total Defense +3.6 #79

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.0% #55 0.6% #223
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.2% #84 -9.2% #39
Possession Length 15.5 #35 18.0 #287
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #62 0.19 #241
Improvement -1.5 #271 -2.4 #311

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 29.4% 32.7% 18.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 28.0% 31.2% 17.1%
Average Seed 9.9 9.9 10.2
.500 or above 91.9% 94.9% 81.7%
.500 or above in Conference 40.8% 46.9% 20.3%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 1.3% 7.6%
First Four11.5% 12.4% 8.4%
First Round22.9% 25.6% 13.7%
Second Round8.1% 9.1% 4.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 1.6% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marquette (Home) - 77.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 52 - 5
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 8
Quad 26 - 49 - 13
Quad 34 - 113 - 14
Quad 45 - 019 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 329 Southern Indiana W 88 - 58 97% +18  1 - 0 +16 +6 C+ A- D- +8 A- A C-
 Sat, Nov 8 337 IU Indianapolis W 112 - 80 98% +14  2 - 0 +18 +5 D- A+ C +6 A- A+ B+
 Tue, Nov 11 357 Chicago St. W 98 - 66 98% +24  3 - 0 +15 +13 A- A+ C- +1 F C A+
 Sat, Nov 15 29 @SMU L 85 - 87 23% +0  3 - 1 +15 +13 A+ B- F +2 D A- A+
 Fri, Nov 21 69 South Carolina W 79 - 72 56% +7  4 - 1 +15 +12 C A+ C+ +4 A+ A F
 Sun, Nov 23 16 Virginia W 80 - 73 21% +5  5 - 1 +25 +17 A+ D+ D- +8 A+ A- C-
 Fri, Nov 28 154 Wright St. W 94 - 69 87% +5  6 - 1 +22 +12 A+ A+ A- +9 B+ A+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 198 Eastern Michigan W 84 - 68 91% +7  7 - 1 +10 +15 A+ A+ C- -3 B- C B-
 Sat, Dec 6 66 Boise St. L 68 - 77 66% -2  7 - 2 -4 +2 C- A+ A+ -6 A+ C F
 Sat, Dec 13 65 Providence W 113 - 110 2OT 65% -0  8 - 2 1 - 0 +8 +18 A- A+ A+ -10 C A F
 Tue, Dec 16 7 @Connecticut L 60 - 79 10% -10  8 - 3 1 - 1 +4 +0 F B+ A+ +4 B+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 60 Northwestern W 61 - 58 52% +4  9 - 3 +12 -6 D- C+ F +18 A+ A+ B-
 Mon, Dec 22 336 NJIT W 101 - 52 98% +29  10 - 3 +35 +19 A+ A+ B+ +14 B- A+ C+
 Tue, Dec 30 44 @Creighton L 85 - 89 32% -7  10 - 4 1 - 2 +10 +14 C+ A+ C+ -3 C F B+
 Sat, Jan 3 33 Villanova L 67 - 85 44% -3  10 - 5 1 - 3 -7 -2 F A+ C -5 D A+ C+
 Tue, Jan 6 18 St. John's L 70 - 84 32% +1  10 - 6 1 - 4 +0 +3 A+ F F -2 C+ A+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 81 @Xavier L 75 - 89 47% -11  10 - 7 1 - 5 -4 +4 D- A+ C -8 C F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 56 @Seton Hall W 77 - 66 36% +6  11 - 7 2 - 5 +24 +18 A+ F A+ +6 A+ B- A
 Tue, Jan 20 99 DePaul W 87 - 80 76% +8  12 - 7 3 - 5 +9 +15 A+ A+ B -6 A+ F B-
 Fri, Jan 23 102 Marquette W 84 - 76 77%
 Wed, Jan 28 18 @St. John's L 76 - 87 16%
 Sat, Jan 31 93 Georgetown W 82 - 75 74%
 Wed, Feb 4 65 @Providence L 87 - 89 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 102 @Marquette W 81 - 79 57%
 Wed, Feb 11 7 Connecticut L 70 - 78 23%
 Sun, Feb 15 56 Seton Hall W 72 - 70 59%
 Wed, Feb 18 93 @Georgetown W 79 - 78 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 81 Xavier W 84 - 79 68%
 Wed, Feb 25 33 @Villanova L 70 - 77 24%
 Wed, Mar 4 44 Creighton W 80 - 79 54%
 Sat, Mar 7 99 @DePaul W 76 - 75 55%
Totals 18 - 13 9 - 11 +10 +6 B A+ B- +4 B+ B C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 1.7 1.3 0.3 0.0 3.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.3 3.7 0.8 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 5.0 10.0 5.8 1.0 0.0 22.2 5th
6th 0.6 6.6 11.5 6.1 1.0 0.0 25.9 6th
7th 0.3 3.8 8.8 3.7 0.4 17.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.7 5.4 2.3 0.2 9.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 2.7 1.6 0.2 5.1 9th
10th 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.1 2.5 10th
11th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.1 0.4 2.1 5.9 11.7 18.2 20.8 19.0 12.7 6.4 2.3 0.4 0.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0%
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 0.4% 98.8% 9.6% 89.2% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.7%
13-7 2.3% 94.8% 6.1% 88.7% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.1 94.4%
12-8 6.4% 85.3% 5.3% 80.1% 9.3 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.7 2.0 0.6 0.9 84.5%
11-9 12.7% 65.3% 3.2% 62.1% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.6 2.4 4.4 64.2%
10-10 19.0% 44.3% 2.7% 41.6% 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.1 4.2 0.0 10.6 42.8%
9-11 20.8% 17.9% 1.2% 16.7% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.7 0.1 17.0 16.9%
8-12 18.2% 4.1% 0.9% 3.2% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 17.5 3.2%
7-13 11.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.6 0.2%
6-14 5.9% 0.5% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 5.9
5-15 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 13.0 0.0 2.1
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 29.4% 2.0% 27.4% 9.9 70.6 28.0%