Big East
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
11 Connecticut 98.2%   3   9 - 3 1 - 0 23 - 8 15 - 5 +17.0      +13.3 2 +3.7 83 62.8 331 +14.0 37 +22.7 2
13 St. John's 93.9%   5   10 - 2 2 - 0 24 - 7 15 - 5 +15.9      +8.1 20 +7.8 12 72.6 81 +14.2 36 +23.0 1
18 Marquette 97.0%   4   10 - 2 1 - 0 23 - 8 14 - 6 +15.1      +8.5 13 +6.6 28 71.3 113 +19.1 12 +19.7 4
44 Villanova 34.9%   8 - 4 1 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +10.7      +9.0 11 +1.7 122 60.8 349 +4.7 105 +15.0 5
47 Xavier 36.1%   8 - 4 0 - 1 18 - 13 10 - 10 +10.5      +5.8 46 +4.7 57 72.4 90 +8.2 78 +4.8 7
48 Creighton 34.8%   7 - 5 0 - 1 17 - 14 10 - 10 +10.3      +4.6 61 +5.7 40 71.1 118 +7.9 81 -4.2 10
71 Georgetown 19.0%   9 - 2 1 - 0 18 - 13 9 - 11 +8.0      +3.6 85 +4.5 64 69.0 179 +9.6 64 +22.5 3
73 Providence 8.1%   7 - 6 1 - 1 14 - 17 8 - 12 +7.6      +2.4 109 +5.1 51 63.1 322 +3.8 111 +10.4 6
74 Butler 14.1%   7 - 5 0 - 1 15 - 16 8 - 12 +7.5      +5.2 53 +2.4 109 67.6 220 +6.8 91 +2.9 8
103 DePaul 2.7%   8 - 3 0 - 2 15 - 16 6 - 14 +5.0      +3.0 95 +2.0 115 68.6 190 +5.4 98 -7.1 11
116 Seton Hall 0.3%   5 - 7 0 - 1 10 - 21 5 - 15 +2.8      -3.1 256 +5.9 34 60.4 352 -1.9 195 -1.5 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 2.1 45.3 26.5 14.7 7.0 3.4 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
St. John's 2.3 37.1 27.3 18.1 8.7 4.7 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Marquette 2.8 26.3 25.3 21.1 12.2 7.0 3.9 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0
Villanova 5.1 4.7 8.7 13.3 17.2 15.7 13.1 10.7 7.6 5.4 2.8 0.9
Xavier 5.5 2.8 6.7 11.2 16.0 15.9 14.3 11.9 9.1 6.5 3.9 1.7
Creighton 5.8 2.3 5.4 9.7 13.7 15.6 14.9 13.2 10.4 7.9 4.8 2.1
Georgetown 6.4 1.6 3.5 6.8 10.9 13.6 14.8 14.5 13.5 10.7 7.0 3.1
Providence 6.9 0.6 2.1 4.7 8.7 12.0 14.1 15.3 15.7 14.1 9.1 3.7
Butler 7.2 0.6 1.7 4.1 7.4 10.3 12.6 14.3 15.3 15.2 11.9 6.6
DePaul 9.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.0 3.5 5.7 8.6 12.1 17.6 25.5 23.9
Seton Hall 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.8 3.4 5.6 9.2 14.7 24.3 39.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.2 6.9 10.8 13.7 16.6 16.5 13.7 8.8 3.9 0.9
St. John's 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.4 8.7 12.7 14.9 16.7 15.0 11.3 6.6 2.9 0.5
Marquette 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 3.0 5.0 7.9 11.5 14.3 15.5 14.7 11.7 8.0 4.1 1.5 0.3
Villanova 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.7 6.1 9.4 12.0 13.9 14.1 12.7 10.3 7.1 4.2 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1
Xavier 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.9 7.6 10.5 13.2 14.2 14.3 11.7 8.5 5.7 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Creighton 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.6 3.5 6.0 8.9 11.8 13.9 14.4 13.2 10.5 7.5 4.4 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.5 5.0 8.4 11.6 13.7 14.4 13.6 11.2 8.1 5.1 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Providence 8 - 12 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.5 6.9 10.3 13.5 15.5 14.9 12.4 9.4 6.1 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Butler 8 - 12 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.6 5.0 8.4 12.0 13.7 14.3 13.5 10.9 8.1 5.1 2.8 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
DePaul 6 - 14 0.5 2.1 5.5 9.8 13.6 15.6 15.1 13.4 10.0 6.7 4.0 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 5 - 15 1.2 4.4 9.5 14.6 16.7 16.0 13.6 10.2 6.7 3.7 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 45.3% 33.0 10.1 1.9 0.3 0.0
St. John's 37.1% 25.8 9.2 1.8 0.3 0.0
Marquette 26.3% 17.1 7.3 1.6 0.2 0.0
Villanova 4.7% 2.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Xavier 2.8% 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Creighton 2.3% 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 1.6% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Providence 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Butler 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
DePaul 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 98.2% 31.1% 67.1% 3   9.4 14.6 16.6 15.2 12.5 10.5 8.4 5.4 2.9 1.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 1.8 97.4%
St. John's 93.9% 25.5% 68.4% 5   5.0 8.6 10.8 12.9 11.8 11.1 10.3 8.8 6.9 5.2 2.5 0.1 6.1 91.9%
Marquette 97.0% 20.7% 76.3% 4   5.5 10.6 14.7 14.9 14.4 12.6 9.4 6.4 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.1 3.0 96.2%
Villanova 34.9% 5.9% 29.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.8 3.6 6.0 6.9 7.7 6.4 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.1 30.8%
Xavier 36.1% 5.2% 30.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 1.8 3.2 4.9 6.8 8.5 7.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 63.9 32.6%
Creighton 34.8% 5.0% 29.9% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.3 5.6 6.4 7.1 7.3 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65.2 31.4%
Georgetown 19.0% 2.5% 16.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.1 3.4 4.8 5.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81.0 16.9%
Providence 8.1% 1.8% 6.3% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.4 2.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 91.9 6.4%
Butler 14.1% 1.7% 12.4% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.9 2.7 3.6 3.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.9 12.6%
DePaul 2.7% 0.5% 2.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.3 2.2%
Seton Hall 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.7 0.1%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 98.2% 0.8% 97.8% 81.1% 49.0% 25.4% 12.5% 5.8% 2.7%
St. John's 93.9% 2.5% 92.9% 71.1% 38.5% 19.0% 8.8% 3.9% 1.7%
Marquette 97.0% 1.4% 96.3% 73.9% 39.2% 17.3% 7.5% 3.0% 1.2%
Villanova 34.9% 5.9% 32.0% 16.5% 4.9% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Xavier 36.1% 7.8% 32.4% 16.0% 4.7% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1%
Creighton 34.8% 7.3% 31.3% 15.5% 4.5% 1.7% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Georgetown 19.0% 5.4% 16.1% 6.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 8.1% 2.4% 6.8% 2.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 14.1% 3.9% 12.0% 4.9% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 2.7% 1.1% 2.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Hall 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.4 0.0 0.5 14.3 41.5 33.9 9.0 0.9 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.2 0.0 0.9 19.4 45.1 28.5 5.7 0.4 0.0
2nd Round 99.7% 2.9 0.3 5.0 26.9 44.2 20.5 3.0 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 87.2% 1.4 12.8 41.2 35.6 9.7 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 55.6% 0.7 44.4 43.8 10.9 0.9 0.0
Final Four 28.8% 0.3 71.2 26.7 2.1 0.0
Final Game 13.1% 0.1 86.9 12.8 0.3
Champion 5.7% 0.1 94.3 5.7