Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
7 Connecticut 100.0%   2   18 - 1 8 - 0 +20.5      +9.1 23 +11.4 5 64.3 302 +28.7 4 +24.2 1
18 St. John's 99.1%   6   14 - 5 7 - 1 +17.3      +8.8 26 +8.5 16 73.8 63 +15.1 31 +20.6 2
33 Villanova 92.0%   8   15 - 4 6 - 2 +14.0      +7.8 40 +6.2 42 60.9 356 +16.2 24 +15.6 3
44 Creighton 43.1%   11   12 - 8 6 - 3 +11.5      +8.2 33 +3.3 88 67.5 224 +10.5 57 +13.5 4
56 Seton Hall 46.5%   11   14 - 5 4 - 4 +10.2      +0.7 143 +9.5 10 64.7 287 +13.1 41 +11.2 5
59 Butler 29.1%   12 - 7 3 - 5 +9.5      +5.9 56 +3.6 79 74.4 50 +10.9 53 +8.4 7
65 Providence 3.9%   9 - 10 2 - 6 +8.5      +8.4 32 +0.1 163 78.8 12 +5.6 93 +5.3 9
81 Xavier 5.3%   11 - 8 3 - 5 +7.4      +3.7 90 +3.7 76 73.9 61 +8.3 75 +6.5 8
93 Georgetown 0.5%   9 - 10 1 - 7 +5.6      +3.1 99 +2.6 103 68.3 200 +4.7 98 -0.2 11
99 DePaul 0.9%   11 - 8 3 - 5 +5.3      +0.6 144 +4.6 58 68.0 215 +5.9 91 +8.5 6
102 Marquette 0.1%   7 - 13 2 - 7 +4.6      +2.2 115 +2.4 104 72.6 82 +0.8 152 +2.1 10


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Jan 19 102 Marquette 105 65 Providence 104   
Tue, Jan 20 56 Seton Hall 60 18 St. John's 65   
Tue, Jan 20 59 Butler 87 99 DePaul 80   
Wed, Jan 21 44 Creighton 94 81 Xavier 93   
Wed, Jan 21 93 Georgetown 51 33 Villanova 66   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 23 59 Butler 84 102 Marquette 76 77%   
Sat, Jan 24 7 Connecticut 72 33 Villanova 62 82%   
Sat, Jan 24 93 Georgetown 80 65 Providence 86 71%   
Sat, Jan 24 99 DePaul 64 56 Seton Hall 66 57%   
Sat, Jan 24 18 St. John's 83 81 Xavier 76 75%   
Tue, Jan 27 65 Providence 72 7 Connecticut 87 91%   
Tue, Jan 27 44 Creighton 80 102 Marquette 76 65%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.2 82.3 15.4 2.1 0.3 0.0
St. John's 1.9 26.9 58.8 12.0 2.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Villanova 3.1 3.9 20.8 51.0 16.9 5.4 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Creighton 4.1 0.5 5.4 25.9 40.2 17.5 7.0 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
Seton Hall 5.1 0.0 1.4 10.4 24.2 31.1 17.2 8.7 4.6 1.9 0.6 0.1
Butler 6.1 0.0 0.4 4.0 12.4 21.9 26.0 16.9 9.8 5.3 2.4 1.0
Providence 7.3 0.0 0.8 4.1 10.1 18.1 21.8 18.7 14.2 8.2 3.9
Xavier 7.4 0.1 0.8 3.3 9.4 16.1 21.8 21.7 15.5 8.3 3.0
Georgetown 9.4 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.6 7.6 11.8 18.1 27.3 29.9
DePaul 7.8 0.1 0.7 3.3 7.5 12.5 17.8 19.5 19.7 13.0 5.9
Marquette 9.5 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.1 6.3 10.8 17.9 30.0 30.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 18 - 2 28 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 6.0 13.1 21.9 26.7 21.3 8.3
St. John's 16 - 4 23 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.4 6.4 13.5 20.5 24.4 19.6 10.0 2.2
Villanova 13 - 7 22 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 4.3 9.3 16.4 21.3 21.6 15.5 7.4 2.3 0.3
Creighton 12 - 8 18 - 13 0.0 0.6 2.9 7.4 14.7 20.2 22.8 17.8 9.6 3.2 0.7 0.1
Seton Hall 10 - 10 20 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.8 10.1 17.5 21.3 19.8 14.3 7.3 2.5 0.5 0.0
Butler 9 - 11 18 - 13 0.0 0.6 2.0 5.8 12.2 18.4 21.0 18.5 12.7 6.2 2.1 0.5 0.1
Providence 8 - 12 15 - 16 0.1 0.8 3.2 8.0 15.2 20.8 20.8 16.1 9.7 3.9 1.2 0.2 0.0
Xavier 8 - 12 16 - 15 0.4 2.9 8.8 16.6 22.1 21.5 15.0 8.4 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
Georgetown 5 - 15 13 - 18 0.8 4.5 11.3 19.1 21.9 19.4 13.1 6.5 2.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
DePaul 7 - 13 15 - 16 1.6 6.3 12.9 19.2 20.4 17.7 11.5 6.5 2.7 0.9 0.3 0.1
Marquette 5 - 15 10 - 21 3.2 12.0 21.7 24.2 19.2 11.8 5.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 82.3% 70.2 11.4 0.7 0.0
St. John's 26.9% 15.4 10.8 0.7 0.0
Villanova 3.9% 1.5 1.7 0.6 0.0
Creighton 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Seton Hall 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Butler 0.0% 0.0
Providence
Xavier
Georgetown
DePaul
Marquette


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 100.0% 50.0% 50.0% 2   33.0 37.5 20.5 6.9 1.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
St. John's 99.1% 27.3% 71.9% 6   0.9 2.2 6.4 14.3 21.5 23.3 17.6 8.5 3.3 0.9 0.3 0.9 98.8%
Villanova 92.0% 10.8% 81.2% 8   0.0 0.1 0.7 2.3 7.3 13.9 20.3 19.8 15.4 9.4 2.7 0.0 8.0 91.0%
Creighton 43.1% 4.9% 38.2% 11   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.3 6.0 9.2 11.8 12.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 56.9 40.2%
Seton Hall 46.5% 2.9% 43.6% 11   0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.3 6.1 10.2 14.4 12.3 0.1 53.5 44.9%
Butler 29.1% 1.8% 27.3% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 2.4 5.3 9.9 10.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 70.9 27.8%
Providence 3.9% 1.0% 2.9% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 96.1 2.9%
Xavier 5.3% 0.7% 4.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 2.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 94.7 4.6%
Georgetown 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.5 0.3%
DePaul 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1 0.6%
Marquette 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.2 0.0 0.8 17.6 47.3 29.2 5.0 0.2
1st Round 100.0% 4.0 0.0 1.6 26.6 49.2 20.2 2.4 0.1
2nd Round 99.9% 2.7 0.1 6.6 35.6 43.4 13.2 1.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 86.8% 1.3 13.2 49.9 31.8 4.9 0.2 0.0
Elite Eight 55.1% 0.6 44.9 46.8 8.0 0.3
Final Four 28.2% 0.3 71.8 26.8 1.4 0.0
Final Game 13.4% 0.1 86.6 13.2 0.2
Champion 6.2% 0.1 93.8 6.2

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.9% 70.3% 40.8% 21.0% 10.4% 5.0%
St. John's 99.1% 0.3% 99.0% 77.0% 36.1% 15.7% 6.6% 2.7% 1.0%
Villanova 92.0% 3.2% 90.3% 50.9% 15.0% 5.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1%
Creighton 43.1% 13.0% 36.3% 15.6% 3.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Hall 46.5% 13.5% 39.0% 14.5% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Butler 29.1% 11.4% 22.8% 8.2% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Providence 3.9% 1.8% 3.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Xavier 5.3% 2.6% 3.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.9% 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%