Big East
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
5 Connecticut 99.9%   1   8 - 1 0 - 0 26 - 5 17 - 3 +20.5      +10.6 10 +9.9 7 63.2 329 +23.8 7 0.0 1
13 St. John's 94.9%   4   4 - 3 0 - 0 23 - 8 15 - 5 +17.9      +11.1 9 +6.8 24 74.6 59 +11.5 54 0.0 1
39 Villanova 58.9%   11   6 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +12.0      +7.2 43 +4.9 50 60.1 360 +13.0 45 0.0 1
44 Butler 62.1%   10   7 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 11 11 - 9 +11.3      +6.9 46 +4.4 62 74.3 69 +16.4 25 0.0 1
45 Creighton 45.9%   5 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 11 - 9 +11.3      +7.0 45 +4.3 63 67.4 239 +9.5 66 0.0 1
72 Providence 10.9%   5 - 4 0 - 0 15 - 16 8 - 12 +7.7      +6.2 52 +1.5 125 78.0 26 +4.2 114 0.0 1
76 Seton Hall 22.5%   8 - 1 0 - 0 17 - 14 8 - 12 +7.5      +2.2 116 +5.3 46 62.5 344 +14.5 31 0.0 1
77 Xavier 14.9%   7 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 15 8 - 12 +7.4      +3.5 87 +3.9 68 71.6 133 +9.0 69 0.0 1
83 Marquette 5.9%   5 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 18 8 - 12 +6.9      +2.8 101 +4.1 67 73.5 89 +0.1 172 0.0 1
85 Georgetown 11.6%   6 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 16 7 - 13 +6.3      +4.5 72 +1.8 120 70.0 171 +10.5 62 0.0 1
121 DePaul 0.7%   5 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 18 5 - 15 +3.0      +1.0 141 +2.0 109 69.3 189 -1.4 192 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 18 Kansas 56 5 Connecticut 61   
Tue, Dec 2 83 Marquette 75 214 Valparaiso 72   
Tue, Dec 2 44 Butler 84 203 Eastern Michigan 68   
Tue, Dec 2 45 Creighton 96 265 Nicholls St. 76   
Tue, Dec 2 362 Fairleigh Dickinson 64 72 Providence 94   
Wed, Dec 3 244 Central Connecticut St. 61 76 Seton Hall 77   
Wed, Dec 3 85 Georgetown 90 272 Maryland Baltimore Co. 81   
Fri, Dec 5 68 Cincinnati 74 77 Xavier 79   
Fri, Dec 5 300 East Texas A&M 59 5 Connecticut 83   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 59 Boise St. 71 44 Butler 76 69%   
Sat, Dec 6 71 Kansas St. 76 76 Seton Hall 72 63%   
Sat, Dec 6 58 Mississippi 72 13 St. John's 83 86%   
Sat, Dec 6 83 Marquette 74 36 Wisconsin 83 81%   
Sat, Dec 6 72 Providence 84 110 Rhode Island 77 74%   
Sat, Dec 6 240 Penn 64 39 Villanova 80 93%   
Sat, Dec 6 358 Arkansas Pine Bluff 66 121 DePaul 86 96%   
Sun, Dec 7 45 Creighton 75 49 Nebraska 77 60%   
Sun, Dec 7 85 Georgetown 72 21 North Carolina 84 86%   
Tue, Dec 9 15 Florida 71 5 Connecticut 74 60%   
Tue, Dec 9 1 Michigan 80 39 Villanova 63 93%   
Tue, Dec 9 225 Brown 66 72 Providence 81 91%   
Tue, Dec 9 121 DePaul 86 359 Morgan St. 66 96%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Connecticut 1.5 65.1 24.1 6.9 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
St. John's 2.2 35.7 36.9 14.4 7.0 3.1 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Villanova 4.4 5.4 13.5 21.0 18.6 13.6 9.5 7.3 4.9 3.3 2.1 0.7
Butler 4.8 4.0 10.2 18.8 18.2 14.8 10.9 8.8 6.3 4.0 2.8 1.2
Creighton 4.8 3.7 10.4 18.5 17.4 15.5 11.6 9.1 6.0 4.1 2.6 1.2
Providence 6.9 0.7 2.5 6.3 9.6 11.9 13.3 13.9 13.4 11.7 10.2 6.5
Seton Hall 6.9 0.6 2.5 6.2 9.2 11.5 13.1 13.5 13.4 12.2 10.7 7.3
Xavier 7.0 0.4 2.3 6.3 8.7 11.9 12.4 13.7 13.2 12.5 11.2 7.4
Marquette 7.3 0.3 1.9 4.7 7.7 10.1 11.9 13.3 14.2 14.4 12.4 9.1
Georgetown 7.6 0.3 1.5 3.7 6.7 8.8 11.1 12.5 14.0 15.3 14.5 11.5
DePaul 9.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.9 3.4 5.2 7.0 10.6 14.6 21.2 34.8




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Connecticut 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.2 4.4 7.5 12.2 16.7 19.6 18.4 12.4 4.8
St. John's 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 4.1 6.6 9.5 13.1 15.4 16.3 14.3 10.0 5.3 1.4
Villanova 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.9 4.4 6.7 9.5 11.4 13.4 13.3 12.3 9.5 7.2 3.9 2.3 0.9 0.2 0.0
Butler 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.7 8.5 10.6 12.4 13.7 12.7 11.3 8.2 5.3 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Creighton 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.0 3.2 5.7 8.6 11.2 13.0 13.7 12.4 10.6 8.3 5.5 2.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Providence 8 - 12 0.1 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.5 7.7 10.6 12.5 14.4 13.3 11.4 8.5 5.8 3.9 2.1 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Seton Hall 8 - 12 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.0 4.9 7.9 10.7 13.0 13.8 12.9 10.5 8.7 5.8 3.7 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0
Xavier 8 - 12 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.6 5.1 8.7 11.0 12.9 14.3 12.4 11.0 8.2 5.6 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1
Marquette 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.4 6.2 9.5 12.3 13.9 13.7 12.5 9.6 7.0 4.7 2.7 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Georgetown 7 - 13 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.7 7.7 10.8 12.9 14.2 13.0 11.1 8.7 6.3 3.6 2.0 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
DePaul 5 - 15 1.0 3.8 7.9 12.6 14.7 15.9 13.4 10.9 8.4 5.0 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Connecticut 65.1% 52.8 11.0 1.1 0.1
St. John's 35.7% 25.1 9.4 1.1 0.1
Villanova 5.4% 2.9 2.1 0.4 0.1
Butler 4.0% 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1
Creighton 3.7% 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.1
Providence 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Seton Hall 0.6% 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
Xavier 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Marquette 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Georgetown 0.3% 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
DePaul 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Connecticut 99.9% 46.9% 53.0% 1   27.9 29.4 19.9 11.5 5.9 3.0 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%
St. John's 94.9% 29.3% 65.6% 4   6.3 9.3 12.5 14.9 13.8 12.2 9.9 6.9 4.6 3.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 5.1 92.9%
Villanova 58.9% 6.8% 52.1% 11   0.2 0.4 1.3 2.7 4.6 6.5 7.8 8.9 9.7 9.6 6.9 0.3 0.0 41.1 55.9%
Butler 62.1% 5.5% 56.6% 10   0.1 0.4 1.1 2.3 4.1 6.3 8.1 10.1 11.0 10.9 7.3 0.3 0.0 37.9 59.9%
Creighton 45.9% 5.2% 40.7% 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.1 5.8 7.8 8.2 8.8 6.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 54.1 42.9%
Providence 10.9% 1.6% 9.3% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.9 3.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 89.1 9.5%
Seton Hall 22.5% 1.3% 21.2% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.8 2.7 4.5 5.4 6.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 77.5 21.5%
Xavier 14.9% 1.4% 13.6% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.0 2.6 4.3 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.1 13.7%
Marquette 5.9% 0.9% 5.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 94.1 5.0%
Georgetown 11.6% 0.9% 10.7% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.4 3.3 3.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 88.4 10.8%
DePaul 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3 0.5%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Connecticut 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 94.7% 68.2% 40.9% 21.8% 11.2% 5.5%
St. John's 94.9% 1.6% 94.2% 76.9% 44.0% 21.5% 10.1% 4.6% 1.9%
Villanova 58.9% 7.9% 54.7% 31.0% 9.6% 3.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1%
Butler 62.1% 8.5% 57.4% 29.5% 8.5% 2.7% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Creighton 45.9% 7.4% 42.2% 22.3% 6.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1%
Providence 10.9% 3.3% 9.2% 4.0% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Seton Hall 22.5% 6.7% 18.5% 7.4% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Xavier 14.9% 4.8% 12.3% 4.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Marquette 5.9% 1.8% 4.9% 2.0% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgetown 11.6% 3.6% 9.6% 3.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DePaul 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 4.3 0.0 1.8 16.8 42.2 30.4 8.1 0.6 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 4.0 0.1 3.3 23.5 44.3 24.1 4.5 0.2 0.0
2nd Round 99.9% 2.8 0.1 6.1 32.6 42.2 16.8 2.1 0.1
Sweet Sixteen 88.9% 1.4 11.1 45.2 36.5 6.7 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 59.7% 0.7 40.3 48.2 11.0 0.5 0.0
Final Four 32.5% 0.3 67.5 30.4 2.1
Final Game 16.3% 0.2 83.7 16.0 0.3
Champion 7.5% 0.1 92.5 7.5