Villanova
Big East
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.5#45
Expected Predictive Rating+9.1#64
Pace60.0#355
Improvement+2.0#111

Offense
Total Offense+8.4#21
First Shot+8.7#18
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#208
Layup/Dunks-1.5#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#69
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.0#6
Freethrows+0.4#149
Improvement-2.7#302

Defense
Total Defense+3.0#90
First Shot+2.0#109
After Offensive Rebounds+1.0#98
Layups/Dunks+4.0#51
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#330
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#251
Freethrows+1.7#72
Improvement+4.6#17
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 22.7% 25.3% 3.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.5% 20.7% 3.0%
Average Seed 10.6 10.6 11.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four13.7% 15.1% 2.9%
First Round15.8% 17.6% 1.6%
Second Round5.7% 6.4% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.6% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 51 - 5
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 8
Quad 25 - 38 - 11
Quad 35 - 213 - 13
Quad 47 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 285   Lafayette W 75-63 97%     1 - 0 +2.1 +1.2 +1.2
  Nov 06, 2024 289   Columbia L 80-90 97%     1 - 1 -20.1 +2.6 -23.2
  Nov 08, 2024 352   NJIT W 91-54 99%     2 - 1 +20.9 +27.0 -0.3
  Nov 12, 2024 77   @ Saint Joseph's L 76-83 55%     2 - 2 +3.2 +3.2 +0.5
  Nov 15, 2024 99   Virginia L 60-70 74%     2 - 3 -5.2 -4.5 -1.9
  Nov 19, 2024 280   Penn W 93-49 96%     3 - 3 +34.5 +20.8 +17.4
  Nov 24, 2024 11   Maryland L 75-76 26%     3 - 4 +17.2 +22.4 -5.3
  Nov 27, 2024 302   Rider W 72-48 97%     4 - 4 +13.1 +6.3 +11.2
  Dec 03, 2024 49   Cincinnati W 68-60 62%     5 - 4 +16.3 +15.4 +2.5
  Dec 07, 2024 154   Temple W 94-65 85%     6 - 4 +29.3 +28.9 +3.6
  Dec 11, 2024 314   Fairleigh Dickinson W 86-72 97%     7 - 4 +2.1 +17.6 -14.2
  Dec 17, 2024 166   Seton Hall W 79-67 91%     8 - 4 1 - 0 +8.8 +14.4 -4.7
  Dec 21, 2024 32   @ Creighton L 79-86 31%     8 - 5 1 - 1 +9.6 +24.4 -15.7
  Jan 01, 2025 72   @ Butler W 73-65 54%     9 - 5 2 - 1 +18.5 +11.4 +8.1
  Jan 04, 2025 116   DePaul W 100-56 85%     10 - 5 3 - 1 +44.4 +33.8 +13.8
  Jan 08, 2025 28   Connecticut W 68-66 49%     11 - 5 4 - 1 +13.7 +11.0 +3.2
  Jan 11, 2025 13   @ St. John's L 68-80 20%     11 - 6 4 - 2 +8.5 +14.2 -6.5
  Jan 14, 2025 39   @ Xavier L 63-69 34%     11 - 7 4 - 3 +9.6 +3.8 +5.2
  Jan 17, 2025 88   Providence W 75-73 78%     12 - 7 5 - 3 +5.2 +5.9 -0.7
  Jan 20, 2025 81   Georgetown L 63-64 76%     12 - 8 5 - 4 +3.2 +2.1 +1.0
  Jan 24, 2025 25   @ Marquette L 74-87 26%     12 - 9 5 - 5 +5.1 +10.5 -5.5
  Feb 01, 2025 32   Creighton L 60-62 51%     12 - 10 5 - 6 +9.1 -5.5 +14.5
  Feb 05, 2025 116   @ DePaul W 59-49 70%     13 - 10 6 - 6 +15.9 -2.4 +19.9
  Feb 09, 2025 39   Xavier W 80-68 55%     14 - 10 7 - 6 +22.1 +19.9 +3.3
  Feb 12, 2025 13   St. John's W 73-71 36%     15 - 10 8 - 6 +17.0 +21.7 -4.4
  Feb 15, 2025 88   @ Providence L 62-75 61%     15 - 11 8 - 7 -4.3 -1.8 -3.8
  Feb 18, 2025 28   @ Connecticut L 59-66 29%     15 - 12 8 - 8 +10.2 +1.1 +7.9
  Feb 21, 2025 25   Marquette W 81-66 46%     16 - 12 9 - 8 +27.6 +28.7 +1.4
  Feb 26, 2025 166   @ Seton Hall W 59-54 81%     17 - 12 10 - 8 +7.3 -0.3 +8.2
  Mar 01, 2025 72   Butler W 80-70 73%     18 - 12 11 - 8 +15.0 +13.1 +2.8
  Mar 04, 2025 81   @ Georgetown L 73-75 57%     18 - 13 11 - 9 +7.7 +14.5 -7.1
  Mar 12, 2025 166   Seton Hall W 70-58 87%    
Projected Record 19 - 13 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 100.0% 22.7% 5.1% 17.6% 10.6 0.0 0.5 1.6 5.4 13.2 2.0 77.3 18.5%
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 22.7% 5.1% 17.6% 10.6 0.0 0.5 1.6 5.4 13.2 2.0 77.3 18.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.1% 100.0% 9.7 0.2 9.6 26.5 47.2 16.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 10.5% 50.4% 10.6 0.3 1.9 17.3 30.1 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 18.1% 29.6% 10.9 0.3 5.4 21.8 2.0
Lose Out 11.5% 3.0% 11.2 0.1 2.2 0.8