Creighton
Big East
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +11.5 #44
Expected Predictive Rating +10.5 #57
Pace 67.5 #224
Improvement +0.5 #160

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #33 A- C- A- C- C+
Defense #88 B B D+ A+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #312 1.36 #15 +0.5 #156
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #287 0.75 #178 -1.8 #272
Three Pointers 51% #20 1.10 #69 +7.2 #15
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #40 +5.8 #40
Freethrows 15.5 #275 77% #56 11.8 #224
Second Chance 29.2% #227 1.04 #190 0.30 #211
Turnovers 13.5% #26
Total Offense +8.2 #33

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #179 1.09 #94 +1.1 #135
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #15 0.70 #96 -2.2 #330
Three Pointers 33% #354 0.97 #115 +5.1 #18
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #66 +3.9 #66
Freethrows 10.7 #3 69% #55 7.4 #3
Second Chance 27.7% #81 0.97 #75 0.27 #59
Turnovers 15.1% #261
Total Defense +3.3 #88

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.5% #158 -2.0% #39
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.8% #31 -5.8% #75
Possession Length 17.5 #187 18.0 #284
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #35 0.09 #11
Improvement +3.6 #21 -3.2 #336

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 1.0% 1.3% 0.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 43.0% 49.6% 31.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 40.1% 46.8% 28.2%
Average Seed 9.5 9.4 9.8
.500 or above 90.6% 95.5% 81.8%
.500 or above in Conference 89.3% 94.8% 79.3%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.7% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four12.7% 13.3% 11.7%
First Round37.0% 43.3% 25.6%
Second Round15.5% 18.7% 9.7%
Sweet Sixteen3.2% 3.8% 2.1%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.1% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Marquette (Away) - 64.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b1 - 43 - 10
Quad 26 - 39 - 13
Quad 34 - 113 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 283 South Dakota W 92 - 76 97% +12  1 - 0 +6 +9 F A+ F -3 C A- C
 Tue, Nov 11 6 @Gonzaga L 63 - 90 13% -11  1 - 1 -3 -1 B- F F -1 D+ A+ D-
 Fri, Nov 14 330 Maryland Eastern Shore W 84 - 45 98% +18  2 - 1 +25 +14 A+ B+ A- +15 A- A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 297 North Dakota W 75 - 60 97% +9  3 - 1 +4 +2 F A+ A- +4 B A F
 Mon, Nov 24 41 Baylor L 74 - 81 47% -5  3 - 2 +5 +7 A D F -2 A+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 8 Iowa St. L 60 - 78 20% -10  3 - 3 +2 -0 A- F F +2 A+ F D
 Thu, Nov 27 68 Oregon W 76 - 66 63% +6  4 - 3 +18 +9 C F A+ +9 A+ A F
 Tue, Dec 2 232 Nicholls St. W 96 - 76 95% +15  5 - 3 +13 +21 A+ C+ A+ -8 D- A+ F
 Sun, Dec 7 14 @Nebraska L 50 - 71 18% -14  5 - 4 +0 -7 F C C+ +6 A A- C
 Sat, Dec 13 85 Kansas St. L 76 - 83 76% -8  5 - 5 -3 +8 C+ F A+ -12 A- C- F
 Wed, Dec 17 81 @Xavier W 98 - 57 54% +21  6 - 5 1 - 0 +51 +25 A+ D+ B- +24 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 102 Marquette W 84 - 63 82% +14  7 - 5 2 - 0 +23 +5 B D A- +16 A+ A+ B+
 Mon, Dec 22 233 Utah Tech W 92 - 69 95% +11  8 - 5 +16 +14 A+ F C +2 C D- A+
 Tue, Dec 30 59 Butler W 89 - 85 68% +7  9 - 5 3 - 0 +11 +15 A+ A+ C+ -5 A B+ C-
 Sun, Jan 4 56 @Seton Hall L 54 - 56 43% +5  9 - 6 3 - 1 +11 -2 D- C- A+ +13 A+ A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 7 33 @Villanova W 76 - 72 30% -2  10 - 6 4 - 1 +21 +19 A+ A- A+ +2 A+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 10 18 St. John's L 73 - 90 39% -13  10 - 7 4 - 2 -3 +10 A+ F A+ -14 F A+ F
 Tue, Jan 13 93 Georgetown W 86 - 83 OT 80% -1  11 - 7 5 - 2 +6 +22 A+ D A+ -16 F F C-
 Fri, Jan 16 65 @Providence L 88 - 93 50% -1  11 - 8 5 - 3 +6 +10 D+ A- B+ -3 A+ F D+
 Wed, Jan 21 81 Xavier W 94 - 93 75% +1  12 - 8 6 - 3 +5 +20 A+ D+ A+ -15 F C C+
 Tue, Jan 27 102 @Marquette W 80 - 76 64%
 Sat, Jan 31 7 Connecticut L 69 - 75 29%
 Wed, Feb 4 93 @Georgetown W 77 - 74 60%
 Sat, Feb 7 56 Seton Hall W 71 - 67 66%
 Wed, Feb 11 99 @DePaul W 75 - 72 62%
 Sat, Feb 14 33 Villanova W 72 - 71 52%
 Wed, Feb 18 7 @Connecticut L 66 - 78 13%
 Sat, Feb 21 18 @St. John's L 74 - 83 20%
 Wed, Feb 25 99 DePaul W 78 - 69 80%
 Sat, Feb 28 65 Providence W 88 - 82 71%
 Wed, Mar 4 59 @Butler L 79 - 80 46%
Totals 18 - 13 12 - 8 +11 +8 A- C- A- +3 B B D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big East Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 6.8 9.5 6.1 1.3 0.0 25.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 4.4 13.3 14.3 6.8 1.1 0.0 40.2 4th
5th 0.1 2.8 7.6 6.1 1.5 0.1 0.0 18.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.8 6th
7th 0.2 1.2 1.0 0.2 2.6 7th
8th 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.6 2.6 7.5 14.4 21.4 22.7 17.3 9.4 3.2 0.8 0.1 Total



Big East Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 72.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 34.2% 0.3    0.1 0.2 0.1
15-5 4.2% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.8% 100.0% 11.8% 88.2% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 3.2% 96.4% 10.9% 85.5% 7.9 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 96.0%
14-6 9.4% 87.8% 8.7% 79.1% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.2 2.7 1.9 0.4 1.2 86.6%
13-7 17.3% 74.8% 6.5% 68.4% 9.5 0.1 0.4 1.9 3.7 4.9 2.1 4.4 73.1%
12-8 22.7% 50.1% 5.0% 45.1% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.7 5.2 0.1 11.3 47.5%
11-9 21.4% 24.8% 4.0% 20.8% 10.6 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 3.6 0.1 16.1 21.7%
10-10 14.4% 7.1% 2.5% 4.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 0.0 13.4 4.7%
9-11 7.5% 1.3% 1.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.4 0.1%
8-12 2.6% 1.0% 1.0% 12.0 0.0 2.6
7-13 0.6% 2.5% 2.5% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 43.0% 4.9% 38.2% 9.5 57.0 40.1%