Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.7#197
Expected Predictive Rating-0.1#169
Pace69.5#143
Improvement+4.3#33

Offense
Total Offense-0.7#192
First Shot-2.6#251
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#67
Layup/Dunks+0.5#156
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#188
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#197
Freethrows-2.3#312
Improvement+3.0#38

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#207
First Shot-1.2#212
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#178
Layups/Dunks+0.9#136
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#199
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#145
Freethrows-3.2#347
Improvement+1.4#114
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.6% 11.1% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 94.1% 95.7% 80.7%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.8% 97.3%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.5%
First Round10.5% 11.0% 6.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas A&M - Commerce (Home) - 89.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 33 - 45 - 9
Quad 413 - 417 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 40   @ New Mexico L 84-91 8%     0 - 1 +7.4 +5.6 +2.9
  Nov 08, 2024 156   South Alabama L 64-70 51%     0 - 2 -7.9 -2.2 -6.2
  Nov 14, 2024 244   @ Northern Kentucky W 61-59 53%     1 - 2 -0.4 -8.3 +7.9
  Nov 15, 2024 59   @ Cincinnati L 49-86 10%     1 - 3 -24.8 -10.8 -16.6
  Nov 20, 2024 160   Towson L 64-70 52%     1 - 4 -8.1 -2.1 -6.6
  Nov 30, 2024 301   @ Louisiana W 76-75 64%     2 - 4 -4.3 +8.0 -12.2
  Dec 05, 2024 228   SE Louisiana W 67-64 67%     3 - 4 1 - 0 -3.2 -11.2 +7.8
  Dec 07, 2024 351   New Orleans W 73-70 89%     4 - 4 2 - 0 -12.3 -6.8 -5.5
  Dec 18, 2024 11   @ Gonzaga L 72-102 3%     4 - 5 -9.8 -0.9 -6.0
  Dec 30, 2024 162   @ Seattle W 71-69 33%     5 - 5 +4.7 +2.2 +2.6
  Jan 04, 2025 293   @ Northwestern St. L 66-68 61%     5 - 6 2 - 1 -6.6 -0.6 -6.2
  Jan 06, 2025 343   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 83-61 77%     6 - 6 3 - 1 +12.7 +15.0 -0.2
  Jan 11, 2025 87   @ McNeese St. L 71-80 16%     6 - 7 3 - 2 +0.0 +0.3 +0.1
  Jan 13, 2025 291   @ Incarnate Word W 88-82 61%     7 - 7 4 - 2 +1.4 +11.3 -9.8
  Jan 18, 2025 270   Stephen F. Austin W 73-61 75%     8 - 7 5 - 2 +3.4 +3.3 +0.4
  Jan 20, 2025 218   Lamar L 74-78 65%     8 - 8 5 - 3 -9.7 +0.2 -9.9
  Jan 25, 2025 186   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi L 57-61 39%     8 - 9 5 - 4 -2.8 -12.9 +10.0
  Jan 27, 2025 264   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 82-75 56%     9 - 9 6 - 4 +3.7 +6.5 -2.8
  Feb 01, 2025 87   McNeese St. W 71-63 29%     10 - 9 7 - 4 +12.1 +4.4 +8.1
  Feb 03, 2025 290   Houston Christian W 75-67 77%     11 - 9 8 - 4 -1.6 +6.7 -7.2
  Feb 08, 2025 343   Texas A&M - Commerce W 77-64 89%    
  Feb 10, 2025 293   Northwestern St. W 72-64 78%    
  Feb 15, 2025 228   @ SE Louisiana L 71-72 47%    
  Feb 17, 2025 351   @ New Orleans W 81-72 77%    
  Feb 22, 2025 264   UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-73 75%    
  Feb 24, 2025 186   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75-73 60%    
  Mar 01, 2025 270   @ Stephen F. Austin W 68-66 56%    
  Mar 03, 2025 218   @ Lamar L 70-71 44%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 1st
2nd 0.6 9.2 21.5 14.7 4.1 50.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 5.1 12.9 4.5 0.2 22.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 8.1 4.0 0.1 14.0 4th
5th 0.3 4.1 3.2 0.2 7.8 5th
6th 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.2 3.2 6th
7th 0.2 0.8 0.3 1.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 2.3 8.3 17.2 26.2 26.1 15.2 4.4 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 6.4% 0.3    0.0 0.3
15-5 1.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1
14-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 4.4% 24.4% 24.4% 13.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 3.3
15-5 15.2% 17.3% 17.3% 14.3 0.2 1.4 1.0 0.0 12.5
14-6 26.1% 14.3% 14.3% 14.8 0.1 1.0 2.3 0.3 22.4
13-7 26.2% 8.8% 8.8% 15.0 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.5 23.9
12-8 17.2% 4.0% 4.0% 15.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 16.5
11-9 8.3% 1.9% 1.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 8.1
10-10 2.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 2.3
9-11 0.4% 0.4
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 10.6% 10.6% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 0.8 3.3 5.3 1.1 89.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 13.3 9.4 51.9 37.7 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.8%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.5%