Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.0 #232
Expected Predictive Rating -2.6 #213
Pace 70.3 #145
Improvement +2.4 #73

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #200 C D C D+ C+
Defense #263 F D+ A+ F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #218 1.16 #174 -0.9 #218
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #273 0.57 #354 -3.1 #323
Three Pointers 47% #63 1.07 #101 +4.3 #50
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #170 +0.3 #170
Freethrows 17.4 #182 66% #341 11.5 #249
Second Chance 26.6% #291 0.98 #265 0.26 #301
Turnovers 16.1% #153
Total Offense -1.2 #200

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #100 1.34 #350 -5.5 #347
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #249 0.82 #280 +0.3 #168
Three Pointers 40% #206 1.14 #330 -2.2 #279
1st FG Attempt 1.16 #356 -7.4 #356
Freethrows 20.4 #322 75% #296 15.4 #329
Second Chance 34.5% #318 1.04 #174 0.36 #275
Turnovers 21.4% #10
Total Defense -2.8 #263

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #130 1.0% #264
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.4% #183 13.2% #357
Possession Length 17.3 #164 16.9 #113
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #73 0.20 #275
Improvement +3.9 #15 -1.5 #275

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.0% 2.4% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.1 15.5
.500 or above 12.3% 19.9% 5.6%
.500 or above in Conference 85.9% 94.3% 78.4%
Conference Champion 0.6% 1.1% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 0.7%
First Round1.8% 2.2% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: SE Louisiana (Away) - 46.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 33 - 53 - 13
Quad 410 - 613 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 25 @Kentucky L 51 - 77 3% -15  0 - 1 -7 -13 F F B- +6 C A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 310 @Eastern Illinois L 57 - 65 57% -5  0 - 2 -14 -14 F F B+ -0 B- F A+
 Wed, Nov 12 167 @Valparaiso L 63 - 68 28% -3  0 - 3 -3 +0 C A+ F -3 D B- C-
 Sat, Nov 15 97 @Murray St. L 79 - 99 13% -11  0 - 4 -12 +1 D+ A+ F -12 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 61 @Oklahoma St. L 81 - 95 8% -12  0 - 5 -2 +1 D B+ D+ -1 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 172 @Tulane L 72 - 82 28% -7  0 - 6 -8 +1 A F B- -9 F A+ A
 Tue, Dec 2 44 @Creighton L 76 - 96 5% -15  0 - 7 -6 +10 A+ F A+ -16 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 223 Incarnate Word W 74 - 67 60% +3  1 - 7 1 - 0 +0 +3 B- F A+ -3 A+ F A-
 Wed, Dec 17 298 Houston Christian W 79 - 64 74% +11  2 - 7 2 - 0 +4 -0 D D A+ +5 D+ C A+
 Sun, Dec 21 132 @Pacific L 82 - 95 21% -7  2 - 8 -8 +9 A+ F F -17 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 186 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76 - 71 31% +3  3 - 8 3 - 0 +6 +16 A+ A+ C+ -9 F D- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 218 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 71 - 69 36% +2  4 - 8 4 - 0 +2 -0 C- B- F +2 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 3 308 East Texas A&M W 80 - 58 76% +12  5 - 8 5 - 0 +11 +0 C- D+ D- +9 B- C A+
 Mon, Jan 5 276 Northwestern St. W 74 - 72 70% +2  6 - 8 6 - 0 -7 -5 C- F A- -2 C F C
 Sat, Jan 10 235 @New Orleans W 90 - 77 39% +7  7 - 8 7 - 0 +12 +24 A+ A- B+ -10 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 87 @McNeese St. L 68 - 94 10% -15  7 - 9 7 - 1 -16 -5 B F D- -9 F D+ B
 Sat, Jan 17 211 Lamar L 80 - 90 59% -5  7 - 10 7 - 2 -16 +8 C B C -25 F F A+
 Mon, Jan 19 105 Stephen F. Austin L 62 - 79 30% -16  7 - 11 7 - 3 -16 -4 F B- C -13 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 272 @SE Louisiana L 71 - 72 47%
 Mon, Jan 26 235 New Orleans W 83 - 80 62%
 Sat, Jan 31 308 @East Texas A&M W 75 - 74 55%
 Mon, Feb 2 276 @Northwestern St. L 75 - 76 48%
 Sat, Feb 7 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 71 - 70 53%
 Mon, Feb 9 218 UT Rio Grande Valley W 76 - 74 59%
 Sat, Feb 14 223 @Incarnate Word L 71 - 74 39%
 Mon, Feb 16 298 @Houston Christian W 75 - 74 53%
 Sat, Feb 21 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 77 15%
 Mon, Feb 23 211 @Lamar L 68 - 72 36%
 Sat, Feb 28 272 SE Louisiana W 74 - 69 69%
 Mon, Mar 2 87 McNeese St. L 71 - 79 24%
Totals 13 - 17 13 - 9 -4 -1 C D C -3 F D+ A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 4.0 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.9 10.2 12.5 8.1 2.9 0.5 0.0 38.4 3rd
4th 0.2 3.7 10.5 8.6 3.0 0.5 0.0 26.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.7 6.8 4.5 0.8 0.0 14.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 3.8 3.3 0.5 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.1 1.3 2.6 0.5 0.0 4.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 0.5 0.1 1.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.2 1.2 3.7 9.0 14.6 19.5 19.7 15.9 9.8 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
18-4 60.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
17-5 16.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
16-6 3.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.1
15-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.2 0.3 0.2



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 0.0% 0.0
18-4 0.3% 17.4% 17.4% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
17-5 1.4% 6.6% 6.6% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.3
16-6 4.5% 6.6% 6.6% 14.6 0.1 0.2 4.2
15-7 9.8% 4.4% 4.4% 14.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 9.4
14-8 15.9% 2.3% 2.3% 15.4 0.2 0.2 15.6
13-9 19.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.9 0.0 0.4 19.4
12-10 19.5% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 19.2
11-11 14.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 14.5
10-12 9.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.0
9-13 3.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.7
8-14 1.2% 1.2
7-15 0.2% 0.2
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 15.3 98.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%