Nicholls St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -6.0 266
Expected Predictive Rating -4.4 233
Pace 70.3 133
Improvement -0.9 225

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #253 C- D+ C+ D C+
Defense D+ #269 F+ D A F+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 251 56% 218 -2.0 254
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 240 32% 337 -2.2 288
Three Pointers 46% 67 33% 204 +2.4 103
1st FG Attempt 0.98 228 -1.8 228
Second Chance 25.7% 312 1.02 189 0.26 293
Turnovers 16.3% 147
Freethrows 0.29 247 65% 358 0.19 314
Total Offense -2.9 253

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 99 67% 350 -5.5 343
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 261 39% 230 +0.8 123
Three Pointers 40% 200 37% 319 -1.5 257
1st FG Attempt 1.14 349 -6.2 349
Second Chance 36.1% 343 1.03 196 0.37 315
Turnovers 21.6% 12
Freethrows 0.35 315 78% 359 0.28 342
Total Defense -3.0 269

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.2 162 +0.6 278
Shot Type Accuracy -2.0 245 +5.5 349
Possession Length 17.3 176 16.8 113
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 88 0.20 277
Improvement +0.4 #153 -1.3 #266

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% 1% 0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 65% 88% 52%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round0% 0% 0%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Away) - 37.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 8
Quad 32 - 53 - 13
Quad 48 - 712 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 24 @Kentucky L 51 - 77 2% -15  0% 0 - 1 D+ -7 F -15 F F+ B- A- +9 C- A+ A-
 Fri, Nov 7 326 @Eastern Illinois L 57 - 65 55% -5  18% 0 - 2 F+ -15 F -17 F F B+ C+ +2 B- F A-
 Wed, Nov 12 155 @Valparaiso L 63 - 68 20% -3  8% 0 - 3 C- -2 C- -2 C A F C -0 D+ B D+
 Sat, Nov 15 112 @Murray St. L 79 - 99 13% -11  1% 0 - 4 D- -14 D+ -3 D A- F+ F+ -9 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 22 59 @Oklahoma St. L 81 - 95 6% -12  0% 0 - 5 C- -2 C- -1 C- B D+ C+ +1 D- A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 28 174 @Tulane L 72 - 82 22% -7  9% 0 - 6 D+ -8 C- -1 A- F B D -7 F B- B
 Tue, Dec 2 61 @Creighton L 76 - 96 6% -15  3% 0 - 7 D -8 B +6 A- F A+ F -15 F F+ B+
 Sat, Dec 6 255 Incarnate Word W 74 - 67 59% +3  76% 1 - 7 1 - 0 C -1 C- -2 C F A C+ +1 A+ F C+
 Wed, Dec 17 298 Houston Christian W 79 - 64 68% +11  97% 2 - 7 2 - 0 C+ +4 C- -2 D D+ A+ B+ +6 D+ C- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 115 @Pacific L 82 - 95 13% -7  0% 2 - 8 D+ -7 B+ +8 A+ F F+ F -14 F F A
 Mon, Dec 29 198 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 76 - 71 27% +3  63% 3 - 8 3 - 0 B- +5 A +12 B+ A+ B- D -6 F D- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 149 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 71 - 69 18% +2  65% 4 - 8 4 - 0 B- +6 C- -1 C- B- F B+ +7 B- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 300 East Texas A&M W 80 - 58 69% +12  99% 5 - 8 5 - 0 B +11 C- -2 C- C- D+ A +12 B- D+ A+
 Mon, Jan 5 280 Northwestern St. W 74 - 72 65% +2  54% 6 - 8 6 - 0 D+ -8 D -5 C F B+ C- -3 D+ F C
 Sat, Jan 10 225 @New Orleans W 90 - 77 30% +7  81% 7 - 8 7 - 0 B+ +13 A+ +23 A+ B+ A- D- -9 F F A
 Mon, Jan 12 88 @McNeese St. L 68 - 94 9% -15  8% 7 - 9 7 - 1 F+ -17 D- -7 B- F C- D- -8 F D C+
 Sat, Jan 17 196 Lamar L 80 - 90 48% -5  15% 7 - 10 7 - 2 F+ -15 B- +4 C B- D+ F -20 F F A
 Mon, Jan 19 105 Stephen F. Austin L 62 - 79 24% -16  0% 7 - 11 7 - 3 F+ -16 D- -8 F C+ B- D- -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 24 270 @SE Louisiana L 61 - 67 39% -2  45% 7 - 12 7 - 4 D -9 F -13 F F C B- +4 D+ B A+
 Tue, Jan 27 225 New Orleans L 62 - 80 52% -9  8% 7 - 13 7 - 5 F -24 F -22 F F F C- -2 C+ F A
 Sat, Jan 31 300 @East Texas A&M W 72 - 68 46% +6  92% 8 - 13 8 - 5 C -1 C- -2 D+ C- B- C+ +1 C- B+ B-
 Mon, Feb 2 280 @Northwestern St. W 61 - 58 42% +9  89% 9 - 13 9 - 5 C -1 F+ -9 F C- D+ A- +9 A+ F B+
 Sat, Feb 7 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi L 76 - 83 48% -2  22% 9 - 14 9 - 6 D- -13 B- +4 C B- A+ F -16 F F+ B-
 Mon, Feb 9 149 UT Rio Grande Valley L 72 - 92 37% -14  1% 9 - 15 9 - 7 F -22 D+ -3 C D+ A F -20 F F A
 Sat, Feb 14 255 @Incarnate Word L 73 - 77 37%
 Mon, Feb 16 298 @Houston Christian L 72 - 73 46%
 Sat, Feb 21 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 79 11%
 Mon, Feb 23 196 @Lamar L 68 - 75 27%
 Sat, Feb 28 270 SE Louisiana W 71 - 68 61%
 Mon, Mar 2 88 McNeese St. L 69 - 78 20%
Totals 11 - 19 11 - 11 -6 D+ -3 C- D+ C+ D+ -3 F+ D A



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- D- C C- 36% 17% 46% C+ C- D C D+ C+ C- F D D+ F+ C- D F+ 42% 18% 40% D+ F+ F+ C D A D F F+
1.04 56% 32% 33% -2 0 0.98 26% 1.0 .26 16% .29 65% .19 1.13 67% 39% 37% +5 +1 1.14 36% 1.0 .37 22% .35 78% .22
Nov
4		 Kentucky F A+ F F F 20% 31% 49% D- F F C F+ B- A D- B+ A- F A+ A C 45% 12% 43% F+ C- C- A+ A+ A- D A+ B
0.73 70% 20% 17% -16 -3 0.65 12% 0.8 .10 16% .37 68% .25 1.10 83% 17% 27% +4 +2 1.14 38% 0.5 .20 19% .39 55% .21
Nov
7		 Eastern Illinois F C+ F F F 33% 24% 43% F+ F D+ F F B+ A+ F B C+ B+ A- A B+ 40% 26% 35% D- B- F F+ F A- F C- F
0.82 63% 8% 19% -15 -1 0.69 33% 0.4 .13 16% .46 63% .29 0.93 47% 27% 27% -11 -1 0.79 32% 1.2 .38 23% .54 76% .41
Nov
12		 Valparaiso C- D+ F B C 25% 18% 57% C- C D- A+ A F D F F C B B- F D- 27% 40% 33% A D+ D+ A B D+ F+ D+ F
1.00 55% 25% 36% -1 -1 0.98 25% 1.6 .41 24% .27 54% .15 1.08 50% 33% 47% +2 -3 1.00 33% 0.8 .27 14% .43 74% .31
Nov
15		 Murray St. D+ F C D+ F+ 47% 14% 39% A- D B+ B A- F+ F+ A+ D F+ D+ C- F F 36% 16% 48% C F F F F A+ F F+ F
1.04 44% 38% 32% -8 +1 0.89 40% 1.2 .47 20% .21 85% .18 1.31 63% 43% 57% +19 0 1.41 52% 1.3 .70 26% .54 83% .45
Nov
22		 Oklahoma St. C- A+ F F C+ 22% 24% 54% F C- C A- B D+ C- F+ D+ C+ F A+ F F+ 52% 16% 32% C+ D- A+ A A+ B+ D- F F
0.99 92% 29% 25% -2 -2 0.95 29% 1.3 .36 20% .26 65% .17 1.17 76% 0% 44% +8 +2 1.21 19% 0.8 .15 18% .41 93% .38
Nov
28		 Tulane C- F+ A+ A+ A 40% 19% 42% C+ A- F F F B A+ F D D F D- F+ F 42% 15% 44% D- F D+ A+ B- B D- A C
1.04 47% 67% 45% +8 0 1.19 24% 0.8 .18 16% .45 42% .19 1.19 70% 43% 38% +8 +1 1.21 24% 0.9 .21 17% .44 68% .30
Dec
2		 Creighton B A+ F A+ A 45% 25% 30% B- A- F F F A+ B C B F F F F F 27% 13% 60% C F B- F F+ B+ A+ F A
1.11 72% 0% 53% +5 0 1.13 17% 0.3 .06 9% .26 69% .18 1.40 80% 57% 48% +22 0 1.45 26% 1.5 .39 18% .12 100% .12
Dec
6		 Incarnate Word C- F F A+ C- 49% 10% 41% B C F B- F A A+ C- A+ C+ C+ A A+ A+ 42% 31% 27% C+ A+ F F F C+ F D F
1.14 45% 0% 53% +2 +2 1.10 19% 1.2 .22 12% .66 71% .47 1.03 53% 29% 8% -15 -1 0.69 44% 1.2 .51 17% .55 73% .41
Dec
17		 Houston Christian C- B A- F+ D 39% 19% 42% D+ D F+ A- D+ A+ F C F B+ D+ F+ A+ C- 62% 17% 21% F D+ A+ F C- A+ F B+ F
1.14 68% 45% 29% +2 0 1.07 26% 1.2 .31 10% .18 73% .13 0.93 62% 43% 22% -1 +2 1.05 19% 1.4 .27 26% .49 64% .31
Dec
21		 Pacific B+ A+ F A+ A+ 46% 8% 46% A+ A+ C- F F F+ B+ F D+ F F F F F 43% 35% 23% A F C F F A F D- F
1.14 77% 25% 45% +16 +2 1.38 24% 0.5 .12 19% .40 52% .21 1.32 82% 64% 44% +23 -2 1.45 35% 1.6 .55 25% .67 81% .54
Dec
29		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A F+ A+ A+ B 50% 7% 43% A B+ C- A+ A+ B- F+ A+ C D D D- F F 45% 16% 39% D- F D+ F+ D- A+ A F B-
1.20 50% 67% 42% +3 +3 1.14 28% 1.7 .48 19% .33 88% .29 1.12 60% 43% 47% +9 +1 1.23 32% 1.1 .36 24% .27 77% .21
Dec
31		 UT Rio Grande Valley C- D+ C C- D+ 35% 17% 48% C+ C- C- A B- F A+ C- A B+ A C- D B 41% 16% 43% D+ B- F B- D- A+ D- D+ D-
1.02 56% 38% 32% -2 0 0.98 29% 1.1 .32 23% .45 71% .32 0.99 45% 38% 38% -3 +1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 27% .28 79% .22
Jan
3		 East Texas A&M C- C- F B C- 38% 8% 55% B- C- B+ F C- D+ B F+ C+ A F C+ A+ B+ 47% 6% 47% F B- F+ B- D+ A+ B- B B-
1.08 55% 0% 38% -1 +2 1.04 39% 0.8 .32 19% .37 64% .23 0.79 73% 33% 14% -8 +2 0.91 30% 0.8 .24 33% .22 64% .14
Jan
5		 Northwestern St. D A C- F C- 51% 10% 39% B+ C F+ F F B+ A+ F C C- D- F A+ C- 43% 14% 43% F D+ D- F F C D- B- D
1.07 72% 40% 26% +3 +2 1.12 25% 0.7 .17 14% .52 48% .25 1.04 62% 57% 24% -2 +1 1.00 29% 1.3 .39 17% .37 71% .26
Jan
10		 New Orleans A+ B C- A+ A+ 35% 10% 56% B- A+ B B+ B+ A- F C+ F D- D C+ F F 40% 20% 40% D+ F F A F A F F F
1.44 61% 40% 45% +10 +1 1.25 40% 1.1 .46 11% .22 75% .16 1.23 63% 38% 44% +8 0 1.18 64% 0.8 .52 24% .50 88% .44
Jan
12		 McNeese St. D- D+ F B+ C+ 36% 4% 60% A- B- F+ F F C- F F F D- D B- F F 42% 20% 38% C+ F A F D C+ D F F
0.91 53% 0% 38% 0 +2 1.06 28% 0.5 .15 25% .25 57% .14 1.26 65% 36% 43% +8 0 1.18 27% 1.5 .40 15% .35 86% .30
Jan
17		 Lamar B- C+ D- B C 37% 20% 43% C C C- A+ B- D+ B+ A+ A F F F F F 32% 36% 32% C+ F F+ F F A F+ D+ F+
1.17 61% 30% 38% +2 0 1.06 28% 1.3 .38 19% .43 79% .34 1.31 67% 53% 67% +24 -2 1.45 40% 1.5 .60 22% .30 75% .22
Jan
19		 Stephen F. Austin D- F B+ F F 34% 21% 45% C- F A- F+ C+ B- C+ B B- D- F D F F 35% 20% 46% D- F F A+ A+ A+ F F F
0.94 28% 45% 21% -18 0 0.66 37% 0.9 .33 15% .30 76% .23 1.20 75% 44% 43% +13 0 1.28 44% 0.3 .13 20% .38 80% .30
Jan
24		 SE Louisiana F F B+ F F 33% 14% 53% B- F D- F F C B C B B- C- D- B+ D+ 33% 27% 40% C+ D+ F A+ B A+ F F F
0.86 38% 43% 23% -15 0 0.73 25% 0.8 .20 20% .42 75% .32 0.95 60% 42% 28% -2 -1 0.96 41% 0.5 .19 26% .55 76% .42
Jan
27		 New Orleans F F F+ C F 32% 11% 57% C+ F F B F F F F F C- C+ A D- B- 50% 23% 27% D- C+ F F+ F A F D- F
0.85 29% 33% 33% -10 +1 0.83 21% 1.1 .23 19% .25 53% .14 1.09 54% 27% 38% -3 +1 0.98 42% 1.2 .52 25% .47 81% .38
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 East Texas A&M C- B+ C+ F+ C- 36% 28% 36% F D+ F A+ C- B- A+ D+ A C+ B- C+ D+ C- 33% 17% 50% C+ C- F A+ B+ B- F F F
1.04 65% 38% 29% 0 -1 1.00 20% 1.7 .33 16% .43 68% .29 0.98 53% 33% 35% -2 0 0.98 35% 0.4 .14 20% .36 75% .27
Feb
2		 Northwestern St. F+ F B D- F 45% 25% 30% D+ F C C- C- D+ C- B C A- C- A+ A+ A+ 41% 20% 39% F+ A+ D- F F B+ F F+ F
0.96 35% 45% 31% -10 0 0.82 33% 1.1 .36 19% .33 76% .25 0.92 56% 11% 18% -16 0 0.70 29% 1.5 .44 21% .40 80% .32
Feb
7		 TX A&M Corpus Christi B- A C F C 39% 16% 45% C+ C F+ A+ B- A+ D- F+ F F F F+ F F 53% 19% 28% D- F B F F+ B- F+ F F
1.12 70% 38% 26% -1 +1 1.02 21% 1.7 .35 15% .35 65% .23 1.23 68% 44% 46% +12 +1 1.28 25% 1.5 .38 19% .42 83% .35
Feb
9		 UT Rio Grande Valley D+ A+ B F C 31% 23% 46% D+ C F+ B+ D+ A B F D F F C+ D+ F 50% 7% 43% F F F F F A F F F
1.04 75% 42% 25% 0 -1 1.00 22% 1.0 .22 13% .37 55% .20 1.33 77% 33% 37% +11 +3 1.30 48% 2.0 .95 23% .38 85% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 3.3 1.0 0.1 5.8 3rd
4th 0.1 3.8 10.3 4.9 0.6 19.7 4th
5th 0.0 3.1 15.2 8.2 0.8 0.0 27.3 5th
6th 1.3 14.9 12.9 1.7 0.0 30.8 6th
7th 5.2 8.6 1.0 14.8 7th
8th 1.6 0.1 1.6 8th
9th 0.1 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 8.1 26.7 32.9 21.5 9.0 1.6 0.1 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3
18-4
17-5
16-6
15-7 0.1% 0.0 0.1
14-8 1.6% 1.2% 1.2% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.6
13-9 9.0% 1.1% 1.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 8.9
12-10 21.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.2 21.4
11-11 32.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 32.8
10-12 26.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 26.6
9-13 8.1% 8.1
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 15.9 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 5.8%