McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +6.9 #87
Expected Predictive Rating +8.7 #68
Pace 66.0 #265
Improvement -1.9 #267

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #73 C B- A+ B- C+
Defense #107 B- F A+ D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #66 1.18 #147 +3.0 #87
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #182 0.87 #45 +1.0 #118
Three Pointers 37% #267 0.96 #252 -3.0 #286
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #150 +1.0 #148
Freethrows 17.6 #167 78% #36 13.6 #119
Second Chance 36.8% #31 0.99 #254 0.37 #89
Turnovers 12.7% #13
Total Offense +4.6 #73

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #330 1.12 #123 +4.5 #44
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #277 0.68 #67 +1.8 #59
Three Pointers 51% #9 0.98 #135 -4.1 #323
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #112 +2.2 #112
Freethrows 20.7 #328 72% #142 14.9 #319
Second Chance 36.2% #344 1.12 #285 0.41 #344
Turnovers 23.2% #4
Total Defense +2.3 #107

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #139 -0.2% #146
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.3% #160 -4.2% #97
Possession Length 16.4 #93 19.1 #358
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #32 0.13 #55
Improvement +0.6 #150 -2.5 #316

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 51.9% 52.5% 46.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 50.5% 52.4% 30.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round51.9% 52.5% 46.0%
Second Round8.5% 8.8% 5.4%
Sweet Sixteen1.4% 1.4% 0.9%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: New Orleans (Home) - 91.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 13 - 3
Quad 36 - 29 - 5
Quad 415 - 224 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 54 @Santa Clara L 67 - 79 27% -5  0 - 1 +1 +3 F A+ C -2 B- B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 312 Louisiana W 88 - 62 95% +18  1 - 1 +14 +16 A+ F C -1 A+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 72 George Washington W 92 - 86 46% +6  2 - 1 +14 +15 C A+ A+ -2 A F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 97 Murray St. W 73 - 60 56% +16  3 - 1 +18 -4 C- F A+ +22 A+ D A+
 Tue, Nov 25 128 Middle Tennessee W 72 - 62 68% -3  4 - 1 +12 +18 F A+ A+ -4 C- B A-
 Mon, Dec 1 223 @Incarnate Word L 67 - 71 77% -5  4 - 2 0 - 1 -5 -1 F A+ D- -3 F F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 276 Northwestern St. W 92 - 54 93% +24  5 - 2 1 - 1 +29 +16 A+ D+ B+ +14 B+ A+ A+
 Tue, Dec 9 122 @Rhode Island W 66 - 64 55% +2  6 - 2 +8 -1 C- F A+ +8 D+ C+ A+
 Fri, Dec 12 308 East Texas A&M W 102 - 66 95% +26  7 - 2 2 - 1 +25 +15 A+ A- F +6 B- C+ A+
 Mon, Dec 15 298 @Houston Christian W 78 - 68 86% -1  8 - 2 3 - 1 +5 +13 B- A+ A- -6 B+ F C
 Mon, Dec 29 1 @Michigan L 71 - 112 4% -30  8 - 3 -13 +1 C- D+ A+ -8 C- F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 211 Lamar W 82 - 70 89% +4  9 - 3 4 - 1 +6 +22 A A- A+ -14 A+ F C-
 Mon, Jan 5 105 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 64 70% -2  10 - 3 5 - 1 +3 +6 B- D+ A+ -2 C+ F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 272 SE Louisiana W 73 - 61 93% +7  11 - 3 6 - 1 +3 +7 B+ F A+ -3 C+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 232 Nicholls St. W 94 - 68 90% +15  12 - 3 7 - 1 +19 +11 C B- A+ +6 C- A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 218 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 76 - 79 76% -10  12 - 4 7 - 2 -3 +11 D+ C- A+ -15 F F B+
 Mon, Jan 19 186 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 53 71% +6  13 - 4 8 - 2 +17 +14 D+ A+ C+ +7 C A+ A-
 Sat, Jan 24 235 New Orleans W 86 - 72 91%
 Mon, Jan 26 272 @SE Louisiana W 74 - 64 83%
 Sat, Jan 31 211 @Lamar W 72 - 65 75%
 Mon, Feb 2 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 69 - 70 48%
 Sat, Feb 7 223 Incarnate Word W 78 - 64 90%
 Mon, Feb 9 298 Houston Christian W 81 - 63 95%
 Sat, Feb 14 308 @East Texas A&M W 78 - 66 87%
 Mon, Feb 16 276 @Northwestern St. W 78 - 68 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 186 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75 - 63 85%
 Mon, Feb 23 218 UT Rio Grande Valley W 79 - 66 89%
 Sat, Feb 28 235 @New Orleans W 83 - 75 78%
 Mon, Mar 2 232 @Nicholls St. W 79 - 71 76%
Totals 23 - 6 18 - 4 +7 +5 C B- A+ +2 B- F A+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 5.2 14.2 19.7 10.2 50.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 3.6 9.1 14.8 13.5 5.0 46.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 2.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.5 4.6 10.7 20.1 27.7 24.7 10.2 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2 100.0% 10.2    9.3 0.9
19-3 79.7% 19.7    13.7 5.9
18-4 51.3% 14.2    7.7 6.5 0.0
17-5 26.0% 5.2    2.2 2.9 0.1
16-6 10.1% 1.1    0.3 0.6 0.2
15-7 2.0% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0
13-9 0.0%
12-10 0.0%
11-11
Total 50.5% 50.5 33.2 16.9 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2 10.2% 64.4% 64.1% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.3 4.7 1.6 0.0 3.6 0.7%
19-3 24.7% 57.3% 57.3% 0.0% 11.8 3.6 10.0 0.5 10.5 0.0%
18-4 27.7% 54.0% 54.0% 0.0% 12.0 1.4 11.7 1.9 0.0 12.7 0.0%
17-5 20.1% 47.0% 47.0% 12.2 0.3 6.8 2.2 0.1 10.6
16-6 10.7% 42.6% 42.6% 12.4 0.0 2.6 1.8 0.1 6.1
15-7 4.6% 36.8% 36.8% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.9 0.1 2.9
14-8 1.5% 29.3% 29.3% 12.7 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.0
13-9 0.5% 21.2% 21.2% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-10 0.1% 20.0% 20.0% 13.0 0.0 0.1
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 51.9% 51.9% 0.0% 12.0 48.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 6.6% 100.0% 11.2 0.5 3.9 71.3 24.2 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.5% 1.0% 11.0 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.2%