McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.9 88
Expected Predictive Rating +8.2 69
Pace 66.1 247
Improvement -4.2 332

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B- #92 C C+ B+ C+ B-
Defense C+ #97 C+ D- A+ F+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% 38 59% 149 +3.8 59
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% 197 42% 65 +0.3 162
Three Pointers 36% 278 31% 293 -3.9 312
1st FG Attempt 1.02 165 +0.2 164
Second Chance 35.4% 55 0.97 259 0.34 105
Turnovers 13.9% 29
Freethrows 0.30 188 76% 58 0.23 139
Total Offense +3.2 92

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 308 55% 109 +3.7 63
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 294 35% 88 +1.8 46
Three Pointers 49% 11 33% 146 -3.9 329
1st FG Attempt 0.98 122 +1.7 123
Second Chance 35.6% 340 1.11 298 0.40 342
Turnovers 24.6% 1
Freethrows 0.39 352 74% 262 0.29 354
Total Defense +2.7 97

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.6 107 +0.1 193
Shot Type Accuracy -0.4 184 -1.8 106
Possession Length 16.4 87 19.1 359
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.25 25 0.14 71
Improvement -2.9 #320 -1.3 #262

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 46% 47% 42%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.0 12.0 12.2
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 21% 23% 6%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round46% 47% 42%
Second Round6% 6% 4%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: East Texas A&M (Away) - 85.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 23 - 23 - 4
Quad 36 - 19 - 5
Quad 415 - 124 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 44 @Santa Clara L 67 - 79 19% -5  30% 0 - 1 C+ +3 C -0 F A+ C B- +3 B C+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 290 Louisiana W 88 - 62 93% +18  98% 1 - 1 A- +16 A +13 A+ F B- B- +4 A+ F A+
 Sun, Nov 23 84 George Washington W 92 - 86 47% +6  76% 2 - 1 B+ +13 A +12 C A+ A+ C -0 B+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 112 Murray St. W 73 - 60 59% +16  84% 3 - 1 A- +16 F+ -8 D+ F A A+ +24 A+ D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 173 Middle Tennessee W 72 - 62 74% -3  17% 4 - 1 B +9 A +14 F A+ A C- -2 D+ B B+
 Mon, Dec 1 255 @Incarnate Word L 67 - 71 79% -5  1% 4 - 2 0 - 1 D+ -6 D- -7 D- B- F+ C +0 F+ F A+
 Fri, Dec 5 280 Northwestern St. W 92 - 54 92% +24  98% 5 - 2 1 - 1 A+ +28 A+ +16 A+ C B A+ +14 C+ A A+
 Tue, Dec 9 116 @Rhode Island W 66 - 64 50% +2  70% 6 - 2 B +8 D+ -3 C- F A+ A +12 D+ C A+
 Fri, Dec 12 300 East Texas A&M W 102 - 66 93% +26  99% 7 - 2 2 - 1 A+ +25 A +13 A+ A- D- A- +8 C+ C- A+
 Mon, Dec 15 298 @Houston Christian W 78 - 68 84% -1  43% 8 - 2 3 - 1 B- +5 A +12 B- A+ A D+ -5 B F C-
 Mon, Dec 29 1 @Michigan L 71 - 112 3% -30  0% 8 - 3 D- -12 C- -1 D+ C- A+ D+ -5 D+ F B+
 Fri, Jan 2 196 Lamar W 82 - 70 85% +4  71% 9 - 3 4 - 1 B- +7 A+ +18 A- B+ A F+ -9 A+ F C
 Mon, Jan 5 105 Stephen F. Austin W 66 - 64 67% -2  10% 10 - 3 5 - 1 C+ +3 C+ +2 B F+ A C+ +1 B F A+
 Sat, Jan 10 270 SE Louisiana W 73 - 61 91% +7  83% 11 - 3 6 - 1 C+ +3 B- +5 B D- A- C -1 C+ F A+
 Mon, Jan 12 266 Nicholls St. W 94 - 68 91% +15  90% 12 - 3 7 - 1 A- +17 B+ +8 C+ C+ A+ B+ +7 D A A+
 Sat, Jan 17 149 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 76 - 79 59% -10  3% 12 - 4 7 - 2 C +1 A- +10 D+ C A+ F+ -9 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 198 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 69 - 53 70% +6  76% 13 - 4 8 - 2 A- +16 A- +10 D A+ B- A- +9 C+ A+ B
 Sat, Jan 24 225 New Orleans W 82 - 63 87% +9  95% 14 - 4 9 - 2 B+ +13 C +2 D C+ C+ A +11 C C+ A+
 Tue, Jan 27 270 @SE Louisiana W 76 - 66 80% +8  91% 15 - 4 10 - 2 B- +7 B +7 B C- B- C+ +1 D F A+
 Sat, Jan 31 196 @Lamar W 64 - 63 70% +3  85% 16 - 4 11 - 2 C +2 B- +4 F+ C A C- -2 C C C+
 Mon, Feb 2 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 60 - 67 44% -6  3% 16 - 5 11 - 3 C +0 F -11 F A+ F A +11 B C A-
 Sat, Feb 7 255 Incarnate Word W 81 - 64 90% +6  85% 17 - 5 12 - 3 B +9 A- +10 A+ F+ A+ C+ +1 D F A+
 Mon, Feb 9 298 Houston Christian W 73 - 69 93% +5  95% 18 - 5 13 - 3 D+ -7 D- -7 C D- B- C -0 B- D- A
 Sat, Feb 14 300 @East Texas A&M W 77 - 66 85%
 Mon, Feb 16 280 @Northwestern St. W 75 - 65 82%
 Sat, Feb 21 198 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 74 - 63 86%
 Mon, Feb 23 149 UT Rio Grande Valley W 76 - 68 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 225 @New Orleans W 81 - 75 72%
 Mon, Mar 2 266 @Nicholls St. W 78 - 69 80%
Totals 23 - 6 18 - 4 +6 B- +3 C C+ B+ C+ +3 C+ D- A+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B- C B- D+ C 44% 20% 36% B- C B C- C+ B+ C B C+ C+ C+ B- C+ B- 34% 17% 49% C C+ D- D+ D- A+ F+ D+ F+
1.13 59% 42% 31% 0 +1 1.02 35% 1.0 .34 14% .30 76% .23 1.05 55% 35% 33% -2 0 0.98 36% 1.1 .40 25% .39 74% .22
Nov
7		 Santa Clara C F A+ F F 50% 23% 27% C F C- A+ A+ C A C+ A B- B- A+ F+ B 26% 13% 61% B- B F A+ C+ A+ F A+ F
0.99 45% 60% 8% -12 +1 0.80 29% 1.9 .55 21% .43 74% .32 1.17 58% 17% 39% +2 0 1.07 57% 0.7 .39 22% .48 60% .29
Nov
14		 Louisiana A B+ A+ A+ A+ 44% 7% 49% B A+ C F F B- A+ B+ A+ B- B+ A+ A+ A+ 31% 26% 43% D- A+ F D- F A+ F F F
1.32 67% 67% 50% +18 +2 1.41 32% 0.4 .12 16% .70 77% .54 0.93 46% 18% 22% -16 -1 0.67 41% 1.0 .41 25% .46 87% .40
Nov
23		 George Washington A B+ F B- C 49% 25% 25% C+ C A A- A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C A- F B+ B+ 29% 7% 64% B+ B+ F F F A+ F F+ F
1.25 67% 21% 36% +1 0 1.04 39% 1.2 .47 11% .43 82% .35 1.17 50% 100% 30% -2 +1 1.00 55% 1.4 .79 33% .60 80% .48
Nov
24		 Murray St. F+ B- B- F D 42% 20% 38% B- D+ D F F A C F F+ A+ A+ A- A+ A+ 26% 19% 55% A- A+ D C D+ A+ F A+ D+
0.98 60% 42% 22% -5 0 0.92 28% 0.7 .20 11% .29 53% .15 0.81 33% 33% 23% -16 -1 0.68 36% 1.1 .40 27% .48 58% .28
Nov
25		 Middle Tennessee A F F F F 43% 25% 33% C- F A+ A+ A+ A A+ A+ A+ C- A+ F F F+ 19% 33% 49% A+ D+ F A+ B B+ D A C
1.27 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.68 51% 1.4 .71 11% .49 92% .45 1.09 25% 50% 48% +8 -3 1.12 41% 0.5 .21 19% .31 57% .17
Dec
1		 Incarnate Word D- D- A+ F D 42% 29% 29% F+ D- D A+ B- F+ F A+ D- C F A F F 26% 28% 46% B+ F+ F F F A+ F C- F
1.02 53% 69% 15% -1 -1 0.98 28% 1.4 .40 20% .27 86% .23 1.08 70% 27% 44% +7 -2 1.13 41% 1.3 .52 24% .48 71% .34
Dec
5		 Northwestern St. A+ A- C+ A+ A+ 57% 13% 30% B+ A+ A+ F C B F+ B- D A+ A+ B+ C B- 22% 13% 65% D C+ C+ A+ A A+ A C+ A-
1.37 70% 43% 50% +15 +2 1.36 50% 0.7 .37 15% .28 75% .21 0.81 40% 33% 33% -5 0 0.91 23% 0.8 .17 28% .23 73% .17
Dec
9		 Rhode Island D+ D- B+ C+ D+ 51% 14% 35% B+ C- C F F A+ C- F D A D- F B C- 42% 11% 47% D D+ A+ F C A+ F F F
0.96 48% 43% 35% -4 +2 0.98 31% 0.5 .15 16% .33 63% .21 0.94 67% 50% 29% +2 +1 1.08 17% 1.8 .30 31% .57 85% .48
Dec
12		 East Texas A&M A C D+ A+ A+ 58% 6% 36% A A+ A C A- D- B+ A+ A A- C F A+ B- 40% 12% 48% D C+ D+ B- C- A+ D A+ C
1.29 58% 33% 58% +13 +3 1.34 41% 1.1 .45 20% .38 79% .30 0.84 57% 50% 24% -6 +1 0.92 27% 0.8 .22 28% .28 56% .16
Dec
15		 Houston Christian A A+ B+ F B- 46% 19% 35% C- B- D+ A+ A+ A F B+ F D+ A+ A+ F B- 27% 27% 47% A B D- F F C- D- F F
1.30 86% 44% 24% +9 +1 1.21 30% 2.1 .65 13% .17 78% .13 1.13 42% 17% 43% -4 -2 0.91 34% 1.3 .46 17% .34 82% .28
Dec
29		 Michigan C- F+ D+ F D+ 27% 29% 44% C+ D+ B F C- A+ A+ C- A D+ F F A- D+ 48% 10% 42% C+ D+ F F F B+ F B+ F
0.85 39% 32% 24% -13 -2 0.71 29% 0.7 .21 11% .32 71% .23 1.34 79% 60% 29% +9 +2 1.24 48% 1.7 .83 18% .66 69% .45
Jan
2		 Lamar A+ C A+ B+ A- 45% 21% 34% B- A- A+ D- B+ A A+ A- A+ F+ B- A+ A+ A+ 23% 23% 53% D A+ F F F C F F F
1.36 59% 63% 38% +8 0 1.18 45% 0.9 .42 13% .76 75% .57 1.16 50% 20% 22% -16 -1 0.67 45% 1.6 .71 17% .62 81% .50
Jan
5		 Stephen F. Austin C+ B+ A+ D- B 33% 16% 51% C B A F F+ A D- F F C+ A- F B+ B+ 35% 17% 48% F B F+ F F A+ A- A+ A-
1.09 63% 63% 28% +1 0 1.04 40% 0.5 .21 12% .24 62% .15 1.05 47% 50% 30% -4 0 0.94 39% 1.2 .47 25% .15 57% .09
Jan
10		 SE Louisiana B- B- F+ B B- 54% 14% 32% A B A F D- A- F C- F C A- A+ B- B+ 49% 3% 49% F C+ F F F A+ F B F
1.16 63% 29% 38% +3 +2 1.12 41% 0.6 .25 16% .28 73% .21 0.97 47% 0% 29% -10 +3 0.89 37% 1.4 .50 27% .61 64% .39
Jan
12		 Nicholls St. B+ B- C- A+ B- 42% 20% 38% C- C+ F A+ C+ A+ C- A B- B+ B- A+ D- D+ 36% 4% 60% F D C- A+ A A+ B- A B+
1.26 65% 36% 43% +8 0 1.18 27% 1.5 .40 15% .35 86% .30 0.91 53% 0% 38% 0 +2 1.06 28% 0.5 .15 25% .25 57% .14
Jan
17		 UT Rio Grande Valley A- B A+ F D+ 35% 25% 40% C- D+ A F C A+ A A+ A+ F+ D D- F F 25% 16% 59% B- F B F F B F C- F
1.18 65% 50% 21% -2 -1 0.96 41% 0.6 .26 11% .42 88% .37 1.23 64% 43% 46% +13 0 1.27 24% 1.8 .44 20% .35 78% .27
Jan
19		 TX A&M Corpus Christi A- C- D+ F D 51% 24% 24% C D A+ A+ A+ B- A+ D+ A+ A- F+ C- A+ C- 30% 35% 35% A+ C+ A+ A- A+ B F C F
1.17 58% 33% 22% -5 0 0.92 50% 1.4 .68 19% .54 69% .38 0.90 64% 38% 23% -4 -2 0.89 17% 0.8 .13 20% .51 67% .34
Jan
24		 New Orleans C C F F F+ 63% 8% 29% A+ D A+ F C+ C+ A+ A+ A+ A B- C- C+ B- 49% 13% 38% F C A F C+ A+ F B F
1.18 56% 25% 20% -8 +3 0.92 48% 0.8 .38 14% .50 83% .42 0.91 53% 40% 33% -3 +2 1.00 27% 1.3 .33 33% .54 72% .39
Jan
27		 SE Louisiana B A- A+ F B 48% 23% 30% B- B C- C+ C- B- A+ D+ A+ C+ D A+ F D 22% 22% 57% B- D B- F F A+ F F F
1.14 68% 56% 25% +5 0 1.13 29% 1.1 .32 18% .53 72% .39 0.99 63% 13% 38% -1 -1 0.97 25% 1.4 .36 27% .74 78% .58
Jan
31		 Lamar B- C F A+ D- 28% 40% 33% F F+ B- D- C A C A+ A C- B- B- D C 27% 38% 36% B C F A+ C C+ D+ D+ D+
1.12 58% 18% 43% -4 -3 0.88 34% 0.9 .31 12% .38 89% .34 1.10 50% 35% 38% -1 -3 0.93 49% 0.7 .34 17% .25 75% .19
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
2		 Stephen F. Austin F F D- F F 51% 6% 43% A+ F B+ A+ A+ F C B- C+ A A+ F C B 33% 24% 43% D+ B D- B C A- F F F
0.86 42% 33% 20% -18 +3 0.72 36% 1.5 .55 23% .30 75% .22 0.96 33% 55% 35% -3 -1 0.93 37% 0.9 .33 17% .34 80% .28
Feb
7		 Incarnate Word A- A+ F A+ A+ 53% 9% 37% B+ A+ D+ F F+ A+ A+ F A C+ A- B F C- 39% 9% 52% F D F C F A+ F B- F
1.31 74% 25% 44% +13 +3 1.33 29% 0.9 .25 10% .55 65% .36 1.03 46% 33% 41% +1 +2 1.06 52% 0.9 .48 37% .61 67% .41
Feb
9		 Houston Christian D- C A+ F+ C- 60% 19% 21% B- C F B D- B- C+ D+ C+ C C F A+ B- 40% 23% 36% C+ B- C F D- A F F F
1.08 62% 56% 30% +5 +2 1.15 22% 1.2 .26 16% .30 71% .21 1.02 58% 45% 24% -4 0 0.94 29% 1.1 .32 22% .36 89% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 6.8 13.0 20.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.5 8.2 21.1 31.5 16.0 78.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.3 0.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.8 8.3 22.2 38.3 29.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 44.9% 13.0    4.8 8.2
18-4 17.7% 6.8    1.6 5.2
17-5 4.9% 1.1    0.2 0.9
16-6 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-7 0.0%
14-8 0.0%
13-9 0.0%
12-10
11-11
Total 20.9% 20.9 6.7 14.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1
20-2
19-3 29.0% 51.6% 51.5% 0.1% 11.7 4.7 9.9 0.4 14.0 0.1%
18-4 38.3% 46.7% 46.7% 12.0 1.8 14.2 1.9 0.0 20.4
17-5 22.2% 43.0% 43.0% 12.2 0.4 7.0 2.2 0.1 12.7
16-6 8.3% 38.2% 38.2% 12.4 0.1 1.8 1.2 0.1 5.1
15-7 1.8% 25.7% 25.7% 12.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.4
14-8 0.4% 29.7% 29.7% 12.5 0.1 0.1 0.3
13-9 0.0% 0.0
12-10
11-11
10-12
9-13
8-14
7-15
6-16
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 46.1% 46.1% 0.0% 12.0 53.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 14.9% 100.0% 11.7 31.1 66.6 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 8.1% 0.2% 11.0 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 6.0%