McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.0#69
Expected Predictive Rating+7.1#81
Pace64.3#288
Improvement+0.1#191

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#69
First Shot+4.4#68
After Offensive Rebound+0.1#179
Layup/Dunks+4.1#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.2#282
Freethrows+2.6#44
Improvement+2.1#91

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#83
First Shot+5.3#43
After Offensive Rebounds-1.9#319
Layups/Dunks+7.5#13
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#283
Freethrows-0.7#233
Improvement-2.0#281
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 72.7% 81.6% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.2 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round72.7% 81.6% 0.0%
Second Round15.2% 17.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.6% 4.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.4% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 27 - 6
Quad 417 - 025 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 135   South Dakota St. L 73-80 73%     0 - 1 -5.6 -3.9 -1.3
  Nov 11, 2024 5   @ Alabama L 64-72 8%     0 - 2 +15.8 +2.6 +12.8
  Nov 18, 2024 79   North Texas W 68-61 63%     1 - 2 +11.5 +5.4 +6.8
  Nov 22, 2024 136   Illinois St. W 76-68 74%     2 - 2 +9.4 +11.2 -0.7
  Nov 24, 2024 227   Longwood W 84-69 86%     3 - 2 +11.5 +8.6 +3.0
  Nov 25, 2024 71   Liberty L 58-62 51%     3 - 3 +3.8 +0.0 +3.2
  Dec 03, 2024 56   Santa Clara L 67-74 52%     3 - 4 +0.3 +1.9 -2.1
  Dec 14, 2024 33   Mississippi St. L 63-66 29%     3 - 5 +10.6 +0.4 +10.0
  Dec 22, 2024 305   @ Louisiana W 64-56 89%     4 - 5 +2.4 -2.3 +5.6
  Dec 28, 2024 354   New Orleans W 86-61 98%     5 - 5 1 - 0 +8.5 +11.5 -0.7
  Dec 30, 2024 218   SE Louisiana W 79-51 90%     6 - 5 2 - 0 +22.1 +6.5 +16.7
  Jan 04, 2025 335   @ Texas A&M - Commerce W 75-56 93%     7 - 5 3 - 0 +10.4 +1.2 +9.6
  Jan 06, 2025 244   @ Northwestern St. W 92-69 82%     8 - 5 4 - 0 +21.2 +28.1 -4.7
  Jan 11, 2025 177   Nicholls St. W 80-71 86%     9 - 5 5 - 0 +5.2 +2.6 +2.4
  Jan 13, 2025 285   @ Houston Christian W 75-59 87%     10 - 5 6 - 0 +11.6 +1.9 +9.9
  Jan 18, 2025 181   Lamar W 75-64 87%     11 - 5 7 - 0 +7.0 +10.5 -2.3
  Jan 20, 2025 282   Stephen F. Austin W 79-59 94%     12 - 5 8 - 0 +10.3 +13.1 -0.9
  Jan 25, 2025 268   @ UT Rio Grande Valley W 93-63 85%     13 - 5 9 - 0 +26.9 +22.1 +6.1
  Jan 27, 2025 179   @ TX A&M Corpus Christi W 74-73 73%     14 - 5 10 - 0 +2.7 +5.3 -2.6
  Feb 01, 2025 177   @ Nicholls St. L 63-71 73%     14 - 6 10 - 1 -6.3 -5.3 -1.5
  Feb 03, 2025 262   Incarnate Word W 67-65 93%     15 - 6 11 - 1 -6.4 +1.5 -7.5
  Feb 08, 2025 244   Northwestern St. W 65-50 92%     16 - 6 12 - 1 +7.7 -3.7 +12.9
  Feb 10, 2025 335   Texas A&M - Commerce W 67-51 97%     17 - 6 13 - 1 +1.9 +0.8 +3.9
  Feb 15, 2025 354   @ New Orleans W 78-64 95%     18 - 6 14 - 1 +3.0 +2.1 +1.5
  Feb 17, 2025 218   @ SE Louisiana W 88-82 79%     19 - 6 15 - 1 +5.6 +21.4 -15.4
  Feb 22, 2025 179   TX A&M Corpus Christi W 73-57 86%     20 - 6 16 - 1 +12.2 +13.4 +1.9
  Feb 24, 2025 268   UT Rio Grande Valley W 100-65 93%     21 - 6 17 - 1 +26.4 +9.5 +12.4
  Mar 01, 2025 181   @ Lamar W 68-66 73%     22 - 6 18 - 1 +3.5 +4.6 -0.9
  Mar 03, 2025 282   @ Stephen F. Austin W 95-64 87%     23 - 6 19 - 1 +26.8 +21.8 +4.1
  Mar 11, 2025 244   Northwestern St. W 72-60 88%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 19 - 1




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 100.0    100.0
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 100.0% 72.7% 72.7% 12.2 1.2 55.8 15.4 0.4 27.3
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 72.7% 72.7% 0.0% 12.2 1.2 55.8 15.4 0.4 27.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 72.7% 100.0% 12.2 1.6 76.7 21.2 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 16.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 10.8%