McNeese St.
Southland
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.3#78
Expected Predictive Rating+8.4#77
Pace64.5#309
Improvement+0.5#144

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#97
First Shot+1.3#143
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#76
Layup/Dunks+0.9#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#76
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#283
Freethrows+1.6#99
Improvement-0.7#244

Defense
Total Defense+4.1#66
First Shot+8.7#11
After Offensive Rebounds-4.6#355
Layups/Dunks+12.5#2
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#16
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#340
Freethrows-1.3#262
Improvement+1.2#71
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 54.6% 58.0% 51.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.5%
.500 or above in Conference 99.5% 99.7% 99.3%
Conference Champion 68.5% 72.8% 63.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round54.6% 57.9% 51.0%
Second Round11.6% 13.6% 9.4%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 3.2% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rhode Island (Away) - 51.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 12 - 3
Quad 37 - 39 - 6
Quad 415 - 124 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 55 @Santa Clara L 67-79 30%     0 - 1 +0.6 +2.2 -2.0
  Fri, Nov 14 318 Louisiana W 88-62 95%     1 - 1 +14.1 +16.3 -0.8
  Sun, Nov 23 62 George Washington W 92-86 43%     2 - 1 +15.1 +15.1 -0.2
  Mon, Nov 24 113 Murray St. W 73-60 64%     3 - 1 +16.7 -3.8 +19.7
  Tue, Nov 25 138 Middle Tennessee W 72-62 71%     4 - 1 +11.6 +16.2 -2.3
  Mon, Dec 1 171 @Incarnate Word L 67-71 70%     4 - 2 0 - 1 -2.1 -2.6 +0.2
  Fri, Dec 5 302 Northwestern St. W 92-54 94%     5 - 2 1 - 1 +27.2 +16.4 +12.5
  Tue, Dec 9 110 @Rhode Island W 71-70 52%    
  Fri, Dec 12 300 East Texas A&M W 77-59 96%    
  Mon, Dec 15 282 @Houston Christian W 73-62 84%    
  Mon, Dec 29 1 @Michigan L 62-84 2%    
  Sat, Jan 3 195 Lamar W 71-58 88%    
  Mon, Jan 5 144 Stephen F. Austin W 72-63 80%    
  Sat, Jan 10 248 SE Louisiana W 74-59 92%    
  Mon, Jan 12 265 Nicholls St. W 77-61 93%    
  Sat, Jan 17 213 @UT Rio Grande Valley W 77-69 75%    
  Mon, Jan 19 237 @TX A&M Corpus Christi W 72-63 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 216 New Orleans W 79-65 89%    
  Mon, Jan 26 248 @SE Louisiana W 71-62 80%    
  Sat, Jan 31 195 @Lamar W 68-61 72%    
  Mon, Feb 2 144 @Stephen F. Austin W 69-66 61%    
  Sat, Feb 7 171 Incarnate Word W 75-64 84%    
  Mon, Feb 9 282 Houston Christian W 76-59 93%    
  Sat, Feb 14 300 @East Texas A&M W 74-62 85%    
  Mon, Feb 16 302 @Northwestern St. W 75-63 86%    
  Sat, Feb 21 237 TX A&M Corpus Christi W 75-60 90%    
  Mon, Feb 23 213 UT Rio Grande Valley W 80-66 88%    
  Sat, Feb 28 216 @New Orleans W 76-68 75%    
  Mon, Mar 2 265 @Nicholls St. W 74-64 81%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 18 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Southland Finish

0-22 1-21 2-20 3-19 4-18 5-17 6-16 7-15 8-14 9-13 10-12 11-11 12-10 13-9 14-8 15-7 16-6 17-5 18-4 19-3 20-2 21-1 22-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.6 8.9 15.5 18.3 14.3 6.8 68.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 3.1 5.3 5.4 3.2 0.9 0.1 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 2.0 2.5 1.4 0.5 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.4 4.2 6.9 10.4 14.8 18.8 19.1 14.4 6.8 Total



Southland Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
22-0
21-1 100.0% 6.8    6.8 0.0
20-2 99.2% 14.3    13.9 0.4
19-3 95.5% 18.3    16.6 1.7 0.0
18-4 82.7% 15.5    12.3 3.1 0.2 0.0
17-5 60.2% 8.9    5.7 2.7 0.5 0.0
16-6 34.7% 3.6    1.5 1.6 0.5 0.1
15-7 13.1% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
14-8 2.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-9 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-10 0.0%
11-11 0.0%
Total 68.5% 68.5 56.9 9.9 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
22-0
21-1 6.8% 74.6% 73.8% 0.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.9 1.0 0.0 1.7 3.2%
20-2 14.4% 71.1% 70.9% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.2 5.4 0.5 0.0 4.2 0.5%
19-3 19.1% 64.6% 64.6% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 0.0 2.1 8.3 1.8 0.1 6.8 0.1%
18-4 18.8% 56.2% 56.2% 12.2 0.8 6.6 2.9 0.2 8.2
17-5 14.8% 51.3% 51.3% 12.5 0.1 3.7 3.3 0.4 7.2
16-6 10.4% 47.0% 47.0% 12.8 0.0 1.7 2.4 0.7 0.0 5.5
15-7 6.9% 32.7% 32.7% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.1 4.7
14-8 4.2% 24.2% 24.2% 13.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 3.2
13-9 2.4% 18.1% 18.1% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.0
12-10 1.1% 8.8% 8.8% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
11-11 0.6% 11.8% 11.8% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-12 0.3% 0.3
9-13 0.1% 0.1
8-14 0.0% 0.0
7-15 0.0% 0.0
6-16 0.0% 0.0
5-17
4-18
3-19
2-20
1-21
0-22
Total 100% 54.6% 54.5% 0.1% 12.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.7 10.3 27.3 12.9 2.6 0.2 45.4 0.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 7.0 3.2 6.5 9.7 21.0 29.0 11.3 6.5 3.2 9.7