Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.3 #97
Expected Predictive Rating +8.6 #69
Pace 78.6 #14
Improvement -0.6 #221

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #61 B B- B- B C+
Defense #177 B C- C- C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #178 1.21 #113 +1.0 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #229 0.86 #51 -0.1 #181
Three Pointers 44% #131 1.09 #75 +3.2 #82
1st FG Attempt 1.10 #66 +4.0 #66
Freethrows 18.5 #129 78% #26 14.5 #77
Second Chance 32.3% #136 1.10 #113 0.35 #102
Turnovers 15.1% #91
Total Offense +5.6 #61

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #8 1.04 #45 -2.1 #253
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #28 0.75 #157 -2.6 #345
Three Pointers 26% #365 1.01 #178 +8.0 #2
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #75 +3.3 #75
Freethrows 16.2 #128 77% #338 12.4 #171
Second Chance 33.0% #283 1.05 #195 0.35 #251
Turnovers 15.8% #221
Total Defense -0.3 #177

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #141 -0.6% #113
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.1% #74 -6.0% #74
Possession Length 15.9 #54 16.5 #50
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #161 0.18 #213
Improvement +0.3 #158 -1.0 #254

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.9% 20.9% 17.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 100.0% 99.5%
Conference Champion 45.5% 58.1% 35.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round18.8% 20.8% 17.2%
Second Round2.5% 3.0% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Away) - 44.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 24 - 44 - 5
Quad 39 - 412 - 9
Quad 411 - 024 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 261 Nebraska Omaha W 85 - 77 84% +5  1 - 0 +2 -1 F C+ F +3 C B A+
 Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108 - 60 99% +21  2 - 0 +21 +15 A- F A+ +1 B- B A+
 Tue, Nov 11 29 @SMU L 91 - 102 13% -9  2 - 1 +6 +12 A A+ C+ -4 A D+ D+
 Sat, Nov 15 232 Nicholls St. W 99 - 79 87% +11  3 - 1 +13 +14 A+ A+ F -3 A F A
 Tue, Nov 18 282 Arkansas Little Rock W 89 - 68 91% +16  4 - 1 +11 +16 C A+ A+ -3 A+ F C+
 Sun, Nov 23 128 Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 62% -3  4 - 2 -1 +10 A C A+ -11 B+ F F
 Mon, Nov 24 87 McNeese St. L 60 - 73 44% -16  4 - 3 -6 -14 F C F +9 A A+ D
 Tue, Nov 25 72 George Washington W 96 - 95 40% +1  5 - 3 +9 +21 A+ A+ A+ -12 C B+ F
 Tue, Dec 2 302 Morehead St. W 84 - 52 93% +10  6 - 3 +21 +7 D A- D +15 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 6 300 Bellarmine W 81 - 68 93% +13  7 - 3 +2 +4 A+ F F -1 C- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 64 Akron W 115 - 100 37% +9  8 - 3 +24 +25 A+ A- F -4 C A+ F
 Thu, Dec 18 158 Drake W 81 - 72 78% +5  9 - 3 1 - 0 +6 +11 D- A+ A+ -4 A+ F B
 Sun, Dec 21 167 @Valparaiso W 85 - 79 62% -2  10 - 3 2 - 0 +8 +13 A+ F B -5 D D C
 Mon, Dec 29 146 Southern Illinois W 84 - 81 76% +7  11 - 3 3 - 0 +1 +8 A+ F D+ -7 A- F C+
 Thu, Jan 1 151 @Illinois-Chicago W 81 - 77 57% -1  12 - 3 4 - 0 +8 +8 F A+ C -0 B C- B+
 Sun, Jan 4 119 Bradley W 86 - 66 70% +14  13 - 3 5 - 0 +20 +15 A+ C B+ +5 A+ C- F
 Wed, Jan 7 271 @Evansville W 79 - 69 79% +4  14 - 3 6 - 0 +7 +6 D+ B- A+ +0 D A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 167 Valparaiso W 92 - 79 81% +6  15 - 3 7 - 0 +9 +13 A+ F B+ -5 F C A+
 Sat, Jan 17 188 Indiana St. W 85 - 81 83% +5  16 - 3 8 - 0 -1 +8 B- B+ C -9 B F C-
 Wed, Jan 21 158 @Drake L 90 - 101 59% -5  16 - 4 8 - 1 -8 +6 B- D+ C+ -12 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 24 110 @Northern Iowa L 70 - 71 45%
 Wed, Jan 28 90 Illinois St. W 81 - 79 57%
 Sat, Jan 31 82 @Belmont L 84 - 89 32%
 Tue, Feb 3 151 Illinois-Chicago W 83 - 75 77%
 Fri, Feb 6 146 @Southern Illinois W 82 - 81 55%
 Mon, Feb 9 110 Northern Iowa W 73 - 68 66%
 Thu, Feb 12 188 @Indiana St. W 86 - 82 65%
 Sun, Feb 15 82 Belmont W 87 - 86 55%
 Wed, Feb 18 90 @Illinois St. L 78 - 82 35%
 Sat, Feb 21 271 Evansville W 85 - 71 91%
 Sun, Mar 1 119 @Bradley L 82 - 83 48%
Totals 22 - 9 14 - 6 +5 +6 B B- B- +0 B C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 6.3 14.6 13.7 7.4 2.3 0.3 45.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 7.2 13.1 6.1 1.0 0.0 28.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 4.5 7.6 2.2 0.1 14.7 3rd
4th 0.1 2.2 4.0 1.1 0.1 7.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.7 5th
6th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 1.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.4 10.1 16.7 21.6 20.8 14.8 7.4 2.3 0.3 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3
18-2 100.0% 2.3    2.3
17-3 99.7% 7.4    7.1 0.3
16-4 93.0% 13.7    11.2 2.5 0.0
15-5 70.3% 14.6    7.6 6.3 0.7
14-6 29.2% 6.3    1.4 3.1 1.7 0.2 0.0
13-7 4.8% 0.8    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 45.5% 45.5 30.0 12.3 2.7 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.3% 38.5% 32.3% 6.2% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9.1%
18-2 2.3% 32.6% 31.8% 0.9% 11.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 1.6 1.3%
17-3 7.4% 28.9% 28.9% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 1.1 1.0 0.0 5.3 0.1%
16-4 14.8% 24.7% 24.6% 0.0% 11.7 1.1 2.4 0.1 11.1 0.0%
15-5 20.8% 21.6% 21.6% 11.9 0.9 3.3 0.3 0.0 16.3
14-6 21.6% 17.2% 17.2% 12.0 0.5 2.8 0.5 0.0 17.8
13-7 16.7% 15.2% 15.2% 12.1 0.2 1.9 0.5 0.0 14.2
12-8 10.1% 10.1% 10.1% 12.3 0.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 9.1
11-9 4.4% 8.0% 8.0% 12.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.0
10-10 1.4% 5.4% 5.4% 12.4 0.0 0.0 1.3
9-11 0.3% 0.3
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.9% 18.8% 0.1% 11.9 81.1 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.3 19.0 33.3 42.9 4.8