Murray St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.7#113
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#118
Pace78.0#25
Improvement+1.6#68

Offense
Total Offense+3.6#86
First Shot+1.5#136
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#69
Layup/Dunks+0.0#176
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#247
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#174
Freethrows+2.4#67
Improvement+1.0#97

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#167
First Shot+0.7#145
After Offensive Rebounds-0.6#234
Layups/Dunks-2.5#271
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#294
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.1#34
Freethrows-0.2#190
Improvement+0.6#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.0% 12.2% 9.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.4 12.3 12.6
.500 or above 88.5% 90.0% 72.7%
.500 or above in Conference 78.9% 80.0% 68.2%
Conference Champion 14.8% 15.2% 10.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 1.0% 2.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round11.9% 12.2% 9.8%
Second Round1.6% 1.6% 1.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bellarmine (Home) - 91.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 22 - 43 - 6
Quad 36 - 59 - 12
Quad 411 - 120 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 252 Nebraska Omaha W 85-77 80%     1 - 0 +2.8 -2.4 +4.2
  Fri, Nov 7 365 Mississippi Valley W 108-60 99%     2 - 0 +22.9 +14.5 +3.8
  Tue, Nov 11 40 @SMU L 91-102 15%     2 - 1 +3.9 +12.0 -6.5
  Sat, Nov 15 265 Nicholls St. W 99-79 88%     3 - 1 +11.2 +15.8 -6.1
  Tue, Nov 18 305 Arkansas Little Rock W 89-68 91%     4 - 1 +10.0 +17.0 -5.8
  Sun, Nov 23 138 Middle Tennessee L 87-90 58%     4 - 2 -1.4 +7.9 -9.1
  Mon, Nov 24 78 McNeese St. L 60-73 36%     4 - 3 -5.7 -12.0 +7.1
  Tue, Nov 25 62 George Washington W 96-95 30%     5 - 3 +10.1 +20.6 -10.6
  Tue, Dec 2 327 Morehead St. W 84-52 93%     6 - 3 +19.5 +9.2 +11.6
  Sat, Dec 6 292 Bellarmine W 88-74 91%    
  Sat, Dec 13 54 Akron L 86-92 29%    
  Thu, Dec 18 128 Drake W 77-73 66%    
  Sun, Dec 21 214 @Valparaiso W 77-73 64%    
  Mon, Dec 29 142 Southern Illinois W 83-78 69%    
  Thu, Jan 1 204 @Illinois-Chicago W 82-79 62%    
  Sun, Jan 4 124 Bradley W 80-76 64%    
  Wed, Jan 7 279 @Evansville W 79-72 74%    
  Sat, Jan 10 214 Valparaiso W 80-70 82%    
  Sat, Jan 17 196 Indiana St. W 87-78 79%    
  Wed, Jan 21 128 @Drake L 74-76 43%    
  Sat, Jan 24 87 @Northern Iowa L 69-74 33%    
  Wed, Jan 28 101 Illinois St. W 80-78 57%    
  Sat, Jan 31 88 @Belmont L 80-85 32%    
  Tue, Feb 3 204 Illinois-Chicago W 85-76 80%    
  Fri, Feb 6 142 @Southern Illinois L 80-81 48%    
  Mon, Feb 9 87 Northern Iowa W 72-71 53%    
  Thu, Feb 12 196 @Indiana St. W 84-81 60%    
  Sun, Feb 15 88 Belmont W 83-82 53%    
  Wed, Feb 18 101 @Illinois St. L 77-81 35%    
  Sat, Feb 21 279 Evansville W 82-69 88%    
  Sun, Mar 1 124 @Bradley L 77-79 42%    
Projected Record 19 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.1 3.8 4.1 2.7 1.2 0.4 0.1 14.8 1st
2nd 0.1 0.7 3.4 5.2 3.7 1.4 0.3 0.0 14.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 4.0 5.9 3.4 0.6 0.0 14.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.8 5.9 2.9 0.4 0.0 13.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.4 5.3 2.5 0.2 12.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.9 2.3 0.2 0.0 10.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 8.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.4 1.0 0.1 5.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.5 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.9 3.7 5.7 8.2 10.9 12.6 13.4 13.0 11.0 8.0 5.5 3.0 1.2 0.4 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.4    0.4
18-2 98.9% 1.2    1.2 0.1
17-3 90.8% 2.7    2.3 0.4 0.0
16-4 74.7% 4.1    2.8 1.2 0.1
15-5 46.8% 3.8    1.6 1.7 0.4 0.0
14-6 18.8% 2.1    0.6 0.9 0.5 0.1
13-7 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 14.8% 14.8 8.9 4.4 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 42.9% 9.5% 33.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 36.8%
19-1 0.4% 45.7% 40.5% 5.2% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 8.7%
18-2 1.2% 39.6% 38.8% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.7 1.3%
17-3 3.0% 29.6% 29.1% 0.4% 11.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.1 0.6%
16-4 5.5% 25.0% 25.0% 11.8 0.4 0.9 0.1 4.1
15-5 8.0% 21.9% 21.9% 12.1 0.2 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.3
14-6 11.0% 17.9% 17.9% 12.3 0.2 1.1 0.6 0.1 9.0
13-7 13.0% 14.2% 14.2% 12.5 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 11.1
12-8 13.4% 10.4% 10.4% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 12.0
11-9 12.6% 7.6% 7.6% 13.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 11.6
10-10 10.9% 4.5% 4.5% 13.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 10.4
9-11 8.2% 4.4% 4.4% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 7.8
8-12 5.7% 2.6% 2.6% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6
7-13 3.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.3 0.1 0.0 3.6
6-14 1.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.9
5-15 1.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.4% 0.4
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 12.0% 11.9% 0.1% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.7 3.3 1.0 0.2 0.1 88.0 0.1%