Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.4 78
Expected Predictive Rating +9.4 62
Pace 71.9 91
Improvement -0.9 223

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #52 A B- D+ C- B+
Defense C+ #135 B- C- C+ B- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% 81 67% 31 +5.9 19
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% 342 38% 171 -3.5 339
Three Pointers 46% 68 41% 7 +7.5 16
1st FG Attempt 1.21 4 +9.9 4
Second Chance 29.0% 225 1.25 9 0.36 83
Turnovers 18.5% 283
Freethrows 0.31 185 67% 327 0.21 235
Total Offense +6.3 52

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 28% 357 54% 67 +7.1 12
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% 244 32% 13 +2.0 41
Three Pointers 53% 4 34% 204 -6.6 357
1st FG Attempt 0.97 96 +2.5 96
Second Chance 32.5% 266 1.01 157 0.33 232
Turnovers 18.0% 115
Freethrows 0.27 61 75% 325 0.20 97
Total Defense +1.1 135

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.4 23 -0.4 96
Shot Type Accuracy +7.9 11 -2.0 97
Possession Length 15.8 42 18.3 317
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 286 0.14 64
Improvement +3.0 #47 -3.9 #343

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31% 33% 27%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1% 1% 0%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 11.6
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100%
Conference Champion 97% 99% 93%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 1% 0%
First Round31% 32% 27%
Second Round6% 6% 5%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Home) - 68.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 25 - 25 - 2
Quad 312 - 317 - 6
Quad 49 - 126 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 349 Air Force W 79 - 63 97% +4  63% 1 - 0 C +0 C+ +2 C+ F+ B+ C -1 F D A+
 Sat, Nov 8 235 Tennessee St. W 87 - 79 91% +6  97% 2 - 0 C +1 D -5 C+ F D B +5 A C C
 Sat, Nov 15 337 @Oral Roberts W 83 - 60 92% +6  65% 3 - 0 A- +15 C- -2 A- A F A+ +15 A+ B C-
 Wed, Nov 19 187 Lipscomb W 75 - 68 87% +7  89% 4 - 0 C+ +2 F -10 D+ B- F A +12 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 355 St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 57 97% +16  94% 5 - 0 A +23 B+ +8 A+ D+ C+ A+ +13 A B A
 Wed, Nov 26 165 Toledo W 87 - 72 77% +3  63% 6 - 0 A- +15 B+ +7 A+ A+ F B+ +7 B C C+
 Sun, Nov 30 156 @College of Charleston W 96 - 73 67% +19  96% 7 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +22 A+ D A B- +4 A+ D- F
 Wed, Dec 3 128 Richmond L 76 - 84 79% +0  42% 7 - 1 D -9 D -5 C+ B- F+ C- -3 F A+ C+
 Sun, Dec 7 173 @Middle Tennessee W 83 - 62 69% +8  82% 8 - 1 A+ +23 B+ +9 A B- A- A+ +14 A+ D+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 137 Illinois-Chicago W 87 - 84 80% -3  26% 9 - 1 1 - 0 C +1 A+ +21 A+ B- D+ F -19 F D+ F
 Tue, Dec 16 273 @Evansville W 83 - 78 84% +7  99% 10 - 1 2 - 0 C+ +2 C +1 C+ F+ D+ C+ +0 C+ C+ D
 Fri, Dec 19 119 @UC Irvine W 84 - 58 56% +8  75% 11 - 1 A+ +32 A+ +17 A+ B- F+ A+ +15 A A+ F+
 Mon, Dec 29 197 @Indiana St. L 80 - 81 OT 75% +2  68% 11 - 2 2 - 1 C -0 C- -0 C+ C- F C +0 D+ C- C
 Thu, Jan 1 120 Bradley W 88 - 78 77% +3  85% 12 - 2 3 - 1 B +10 A +13 A+ A F+ C- -3 D- D+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 127 Southern Illinois L 67 - 68 79% -0  33% 12 - 3 3 - 2 C- -2 D -4 A+ D F+ C+ +2 C C- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 100 @Northern Iowa W 78 - 65 47% +8  95% 13 - 3 4 - 2 A +21 A+ +27 A+ B+ A+ C- -3 B C F
 Sat, Jan 10 177 @Drake W 78 - 76 70% -11  4% 14 - 3 5 - 2 C+ +4 C- -1 F A F B +5 F A A+
 Tue, Jan 13 155 Valparaiso W 78 - 74 83% +3  79% 15 - 3 6 - 2 C +1 B+ +9 A+ F+ A- D- -8 C+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 127 @Southern Illinois W 73 - 68 59% +2  58% 16 - 3 7 - 2 B +10 B- +5 C- B A+ B +5 A C+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 94 Illinois St. W 80 - 69 69% +6  79% 17 - 3 8 - 2 B+ +13 B +7 A+ C D- B+ +6 A+ F A-
 Wed, Jan 28 155 @Valparaiso W 78 - 77 66% +2  60% 18 - 3 9 - 2 C+ +4 B+ +8 A+ A- F D+ -4 F+ A+ D
 Sat, Jan 31 112 Murray St. W 103 - 86 75% +20  96% 19 - 3 10 - 2 A- +17 A+ +23 A+ A+ A D -6 A F B
 Tue, Feb 3 177 Drake W 103 - 90 86% +8  92% 20 - 3 11 - 2 B +9 A+ +24 A+ A A+ F -15 F F B+
 Fri, Feb 6 137 @Illinois-Chicago W 68 - 62 61% +9  96% 21 - 3 12 - 2 B +10 B- +4 A+ F+ F B+ +7 C- A+ C-
 Mon, Feb 9 120 @Bradley L 84 - 95 OT 56% -2  27% 21 - 4 12 - 3 D+ -5 C+ +3 C- A+ D D- -7 D- B F+
 Thu, Feb 12 100 Northern Iowa W 70 - 65 68%
 Sun, Feb 15 112 @Murray St. W 88 - 87 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 197 Indiana St. W 86 - 73 89%
 Wed, Feb 25 273 Evansville W 85 - 68 94%
 Sun, Mar 1 94 @Illinois St. L 76 - 77 47%
Totals 25 - 5 16 - 4 +7 B +6 A B- D+ C+ +1 B- C- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B B+ C A A 42% 11% 46% B+ A C- A B- D+ C D- C- C+ B- A- C B- 28% 18% 53% B- B- D+ C C- C+ B D B-
1.18 67% 38% 41% +8 +1 1.21 29% 1.2 .36 19% .31 67% .21 1.07 54% 32% 34% -2 0 0.97 33% 1.0 .33 18% .27 75% .23
Nov
3		 Air Force C+ A F D- C 48% 10% 42% A C+ D F F+ B+ A+ A+ A+ C F D- D F 33% 23% 44% A F F A D A+ A F B
1.19 74% 20% 30% +3 +2 1.13 26% 0.8 .19 12% .43 84% .36 0.95 79% 40% 37% +9 -1 1.19 35% 0.9 .30 35% .21 78% .16
Nov
8		 Tennessee St. D A+ F F C 57% 6% 37% A- C+ D- F F D A+ F A B A A+ C- A 32% 30% 38% B- A D- B+ C C D+ F F+
1.07 76% 0% 26% +4 +3 1.16 24% 0.9 .21 21% .51 67% .34 0.97 45% 21% 33% -10 -2 0.79 36% 0.8 .30 16% .29 85% .25
Nov
15		 Oral Roberts C- C+ D+ A+ A- 45% 16% 39% C A- B- A+ A F D+ F F A+ C+ F A+ A+ 33% 15% 52% C+ A+ B B- B C- F D- F
1.10 59% 38% 47% +8 +1 1.20 35% 1.5 .52 25% .30 47% .14 0.80 53% 50% 11% -18 0 0.67 23% 0.9 .20 17% .42 77% .32
Nov
19		 Lipscomb F C D D- D 33% 7% 60% A D+ C A- B- F A+ C A+ A A+ D- A+ A+ 27% 8% 64% B- A+ F D F A+ A- F B
0.96 60% 33% 30% -3 +1 0.98 31% 1.2 .37 28% .52 72% .38 0.87 31% 40% 24% -17 +1 0.69 36% 1.2 .42 24% .17 90% .15
Nov
24		 St. Francis (PA) B+ B D+ A+ A+ 42% 6% 53% B A+ F A+ D+ C+ F A- F A+ A+ F A+ A+ 33% 15% 52% F+ A C A+ B A D+ D D+
1.31 68% 33% 50% +17 +2 1.40 24% 1.5 .36 18% .24 79% .19 0.79 41% 50% 22% -13 0 0.77 27% 0.7 .20 24% .27 73% .20
Nov
26		 Toledo B+ B+ A A+ A+ 36% 4% 60% B A+ B A+ A+ F F D- F B+ D+ B B+ B+ 33% 15% 53% D- B A+ F C C+ A- A- A
1.22 67% 50% 50% +18 +2 1.42 40% 1.6 .64 28% .06 67% .04 1.01 61% 38% 31% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.7 .29 17% .22 69% .15
Nov
30		 College of Charleston A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 32% 20% 48% B- A+ D+ D D A B+ F C+ B- A+ A+ A A+ 13% 17% 69% B+ A+ D D- D- F F C+ F
1.36 83% 55% 48% +22 0 1.45 28% 0.9 .24 8% .29 58% .17 1.03 43% 22% 25% -14 -1 0.71 33% 1.2 .39 11% .48 73% .35
Dec
3		 Richmond D B+ F D- C- 38% 5% 56% A+ C+ D A+ B- F+ D F F C- B B- F F 25% 33% 42% B+ F A+ C A+ C+ C D C-
1.03 67% 0% 29% -3 +2 1.00 26% 1.6 .41 20% .26 47% .12 1.14 54% 35% 59% +14 -3 1.25 10% 1.0 .10 16% .32 80% .26
Dec
7		 Middle Tennessee B+ A A C+ A 46% 19% 35% C+ A C- A B- A- F F F A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 14% 27% 59% A+ A+ B F D+ F C F D+
1.18 69% 45% 35% +7 +1 1.18 24% 1.2 .30 11% .21 38% .08 0.88 38% 40% 18% -16 -3 0.64 26% 1.2 .30 11% .26 75% .19
Dec
13		 Illinois-Chicago A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ 40% 5% 56% A A+ A- C- B- D+ A+ C- A+ F D+ B F F 20% 24% 56% A F D- C+ D+ F A F C+
1.36 65% 50% 54% +20 +2 1.47 44% 0.9 .40 22% .44 73% .32 1.32 60% 33% 43% +7 -2 1.12 42% 1.0 .42 13% .23 100% .23
Dec
16		 Evansville C D+ F A+ C- 50% 13% 37% A C+ F C- F+ D+ A+ C A+ C+ A+ A- F+ B- 24% 19% 57% D+ C+ C- A- C+ D F F F
1.09 56% 14% 45% +2 +2 1.09 21% 1.0 .21 18% .40 72% .29 1.02 38% 30% 39% -2 -1 0.96 24% 0.9 .22 17% .38 83% .32
Dec
19		 UC Irvine A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 9% 43% A+ A+ D+ A+ B- F+ B+ B+ B+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A 25% 27% 48% B+ A A A+ A+ F+ B- A+ B+
1.21 48% 75% 55% +12 +2 1.30 30% 1.1 .33 22% .31 76% .24 0.83 38% 21% 32% -11 -2 0.77 23% 0.8 .19 13% .28 59% .17
Dec
29		 Indiana St. C- F+ F A+ C 46% 11% 44% A C+ D+ C+ C- F B- A+ B+ C B+ A+ F D 39% 11% 50% B D+ F+ B+ C- C F A+ D
1.06 46% 17% 44% -1 +2 1.04 29% 1.0 .29 21% .28 82% .23 1.07 52% 17% 44% +3 +1 1.11 31% 0.9 .28 18% .42 50% .21
Jan
1		 Bradley A B F A+ A- 50% 2% 48% A+ A+ A+ B- A F+ A+ C+ A+ C- B+ C+ F F+ 24% 18% 58% C+ D- F A+ D+ A+ C+ A+ B
1.26 64% 0% 43% +8 +3 1.25 43% 1.1 .46 23% .56 73% .41 1.12 50% 33% 45% +7 -1 1.14 41% 0.8 .32 23% .32 65% .20
Jan
4		 Southern Illinois D A- A+ F+ A+ 61% 14% 25% A+ A+ C- F+ D F+ A- F D+ C+ A- F+ D C- 28% 32% 40% A- C F A- C- A+ B+ B+ A-
0.97 67% 67% 27% +7 +3 1.20 26% 0.9 .22 23% .37 50% .19 0.98 50% 50% 35% +2 -2 1.02 38% 0.8 .30 26% .25 62% .16
Jan
7		 Northern Iowa A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 49% 9% 42% A A+ D+ A+ B+ A+ B- F D C- D- A+ B- B 29% 8% 63% C B C C- C F A- D+ B
1.33 73% 50% 47% +17 +2 1.40 22% 1.4 .30 10% .29 53% .15 1.11 67% 0% 31% -3 +1 0.98 22% 1.1 .24 5% .18 70% .13
Jan
10		 Drake C- D+ F F F 33% 11% 56% B+ F A- B+ A F A+ A A+ B B+ A+ F F 19% 13% 67% C- F B A+ A A+ B+ A- A-
1.07 56% 17% 27% -9 +1 0.85 39% 1.1 .41 19% .43 76% .32 1.04 50% 29% 46% +9 0 1.19 23% 0.8 .17 23% .25 64% .16
Jan
13		 Valparaiso B+ A+ C- A+ A+ 47% 17% 36% B+ A+ F D+ F+ A- F A+ F D- F B- B C- 12% 36% 52% A+ C+ D- F F B- A- A+ A+
1.20 76% 33% 42% +12 +1 1.28 20% 0.8 .16 14% .11 100% .11 1.14 83% 33% 31% -1 -4 0.92 37% 1.6 .58 17% .28 53% .15
Jan
17		 Southern Illinois B- A+ F F D+ 40% 19% 40% C+ C- B C+ B A+ A C- A- B A- A+ C A+ 36% 20% 44% D A B- C- C+ C+ D F F
1.05 71% 30% 19% -5 0 0.92 33% 1.1 .35 13% .38 70% .27 0.98 50% 20% 32% -8 0 0.86 26% 1.0 .26 17% .35 85% .30
Jan
24		 Illinois St. B A+ A A+ A+ 38% 31% 31% C- A+ F A+ C D- B+ F C+ B+ B+ A+ A A+ 28% 19% 53% C+ A+ F D- F A- D- F F
1.15 72% 47% 53% +17 -1 1.33 12% 2.0 .23 20% .38 62% .23 0.99 54% 22% 28% -9 -1 0.83 35% 1.2 .43 20% .36 85% .31
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Valparaiso B+ B C- A+ A+ 33% 14% 53% B- A+ D A+ A- F B+ D- B- D+ F A F+ F 28% 28% 43% C F+ C+ A+ A+ D C D- D+
1.14 64% 33% 48% +13 0 1.28 27% 1.4 .38 22% .38 65% .24 1.13 73% 27% 39% +5 -2 1.08 31% 0.6 .19 13% .35 76% .27
Jan
31		 Murray St. A+ B A+ A+ A+ 44% 24% 33% C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A A+ D- A- D F A+ A+ A 35% 20% 46% B- A F F F B F F F
1.46 63% 54% 44% +11 0 1.24 47% 1.5 .69 11% .40 68% .27 1.22 81% 22% 19% -5 0 0.91 47% 1.4 .68 18% .45 85% .38
Feb
3		 Drake A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ 34% 14% 53% B+ A+ D- A+ A A+ F+ F F F B+ F F F 31% 20% 49% C- F F F F B+ B- D C+
1.47 80% 38% 48% +19 +1 1.41 24% 1.8 .42 7% .23 53% .12 1.29 50% 50% 48% +10 0 1.22 36% 1.7 .61 17% .28 75% .21
Feb
6		 Illinois-Chicago B- A- F A+ A+ 21% 9% 70% C A+ D F F+ F B- F D B+ D+ F A+ D+ 39% 27% 34% B C- C+ A+ A+ C- D+ B C-
1.07 67% 25% 43% +11 0 1.23 31% 0.8 .23 27% .35 56% .19 0.98 59% 58% 20% -1 -1 0.98 35% 0.5 .18 17% .36 68% .25
Feb
9		 Bradley C+ A+ F D- C- 25% 19% 57% B- C- B A+ A+ D A- B- A- D- A A+ F D- 29% 15% 56% D+ D- B B- B F+ D C- D-
1.09 85% 20% 30% 0 -1 1.00 37% 1.4 .53 22% .40 75% .30 1.23 47% 11% 48% +5 0 1.12 24% 1.0 .24 10% .37 77% .29



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.6 11.5 32.4 37.6 15.4 97.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 1.5 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.6 13.0 32.4 37.6 15.4 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 15.4    15.4
16-4 100.0% 37.6    37.6
15-5 100.0% 32.4    29.6 2.9
14-6 88.3% 11.5    4.5 5.5 1.3 0.1
13-7 38.6% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9
10-10
Total 97.4% 97.4 87.0 8.6 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 15.4% 37.7% 35.8% 1.9% 11.2 0.0 0.3 4.3 1.2 9.6 2.9%
16-4 37.6% 32.8% 32.4% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 6.0 6.3 0.0 25.3 0.5%
15-5 32.4% 29.7% 29.4% 0.2% 11.7 3.2 6.3 0.1 22.8 0.3%
14-6 13.0% 24.2% 24.2% 11.8 0.8 2.2 0.2 9.8
13-7 1.6% 17.1% 17.1% 12.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.3
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.1% 30.7% 0.5% 11.5 68.9 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.5% 100.0% 11.2 0.5 4.5 73.5 21.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 2.5% 4.5% 11.0 4.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.9% 2.3% 11.0 2.3