Belmont
Missouri Valley
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.2 #82
Expected Predictive Rating +8.8 #66
Pace 73.1 #73
Improvement -1.2 #247

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #67 A+ C+ D+ C- A
Defense #110 B C B- B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #40 1.31 #37 +7.1 #12
2 Pt. Jumpers 10% #346 0.70 #263 -4.2 #351
Three Pointers 45% #105 1.21 #6 +6.4 #22
1st FG Attempt 1.20 #7 +9.2 #7
Freethrows 17.3 #190 68% #323 11.7 #238
Second Chance 29.7% #210 1.16 #51 0.34 #120
Turnovers 18.0% #277
Total Offense +5.2 #67

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #359 1.02 #31 +8.8 #4
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #251 0.65 #32 +1.9 #51
Three Pointers 55% #2 1.03 #203 -7.6 #360
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #82 +3.1 #82
Freethrows 14.7 #58 74% #227 10.8 #75
Second Chance 31.7% #234 1.01 #140 0.32 #188
Turnovers 17.7% #95
Total Defense +2.0 #110

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.5% #14 -1.1% #83
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 14.0% #15 -4.9% #85
Possession Length 15.7 #43 18.5 #328
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #247 0.14 #68
Improvement +1.8 #87 -3.0 #332

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.9% 31.3% 24.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Average Seed 11.6 11.6 11.8
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.4%
Conference Champion 49.9% 60.5% 31.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
First Round28.8% 31.1% 24.7%
Second Round5.5% 6.3% 4.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.8% 0.9% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Illinois St. (Home) - 63.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 24 - 24 - 2
Quad 311 - 416 - 6
Quad 49 - 125 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 340 Air Force W 79 - 63 97% +4  1 - 0 +2 +6 B F A+ -4 F D- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 241 Tennessee St. W 87 - 79 91% +6  2 - 0 +1 -2 C+ F F +1 A- C C+
 Sat, Nov 15 321 @Oral Roberts W 83 - 60 90% +6  3 - 0 +16 +2 A+ A+ F +13 A+ B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 19 174 Lipscomb W 75 - 68 86% +7  4 - 0 +3 -6 C- B F +8 A+ F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 358 St. Francis (PA) W 94 - 57 97% +16  5 - 0 +22 +12 A+ C- C +9 A+ B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 166 Toledo W 87 - 72 77% +3  6 - 0 +14 +9 A+ A+ F +5 B C+ B
 Sun, Nov 30 164 @College of Charleston W 96 - 73 67% +19  7 - 0 +26 +23 A+ D- A+ +2 A+ F F
 Wed, Dec 3 120 Richmond L 76 - 84 76% +0  7 - 1 -8 -1 C+ B+ F -6 F A+ B-
 Sun, Dec 7 128 @Middle Tennessee W 83 - 62 58% +8  8 - 1 +26 +14 A+ C A+ +12 A+ D F
 Sat, Dec 13 151 Illinois-Chicago W 87 - 84 82% -3  9 - 1 1 - 0 +1 +23 A+ B- F -22 F C- F
 Tue, Dec 16 271 @Evansville W 83 - 78 83% +7  10 - 1 2 - 0 +2 +5 B- F C- -4 C B F
 Fri, Dec 19 123 @UC Irvine W 84 - 58 57% +8  11 - 1 +31 +18 A+ C+ F +13 A+ A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 188 @Indiana St. L 80 - 81 OT 72% +2  11 - 2 2 - 1 +0 +2 C+ D F -2 D+ D+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 119 Bradley W 88 - 78 76% +3  12 - 2 3 - 1 +10 +16 A+ A+ F -6 F D+ A+
 Sun, Jan 4 146 Southern Illinois L 67 - 68 81% -0  12 - 3 3 - 2 -3 -3 A+ D- F +0 C B- A+
 Wed, Jan 7 110 @Northern Iowa W 78 - 65 52% +8  13 - 3 4 - 2 +20 +29 A+ A- A+ -7 B- C- F
 Sat, Jan 10 158 @Drake W 78 - 76 66% -11  14 - 3 5 - 2 +5 +4 F A+ F +1 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 13 167 Valparaiso W 78 - 74 85% +3  15 - 3 6 - 2 +0 +11 A+ F A- -11 B- F B-
 Sat, Jan 17 146 @Southern Illinois W 73 - 68 63% +2  16 - 3 7 - 2 +9 +6 D+ B- A+ +3 A+ A- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 90 Illinois St. W 78 - 74 64%
 Wed, Jan 28 167 @Valparaiso W 77 - 72 68%
 Sat, Jan 31 97 Murray St. W 89 - 84 68%
 Tue, Feb 3 158 Drake W 81 - 71 83%
 Fri, Feb 6 151 @Illinois-Chicago W 77 - 73 63%
 Mon, Feb 9 119 @Bradley W 78 - 77 55%
 Thu, Feb 12 110 Northern Iowa W 70 - 64 72%
 Sun, Feb 15 97 @Murray St. L 86 - 87 45%
 Sat, Feb 21 188 Indiana St. W 86 - 74 87%
 Wed, Feb 25 271 Evansville W 82 - 66 94%
 Sun, Mar 1 90 @Illinois St. L 75 - 77 42%
Totals 23 - 7 14 - 6 +7 +5 A+ C+ D+ +2 B C B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 7.0 16.3 15.8 7.9 2.0 49.9 1st
2nd 0.8 6.7 12.7 6.3 1.1 0.0 27.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.7 6.8 2.3 0.1 13.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.5 3.4 1.1 0.0 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.4 8.5 15.4 22.0 22.7 16.8 7.9 2.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 2.0    2.0
17-3 99.4% 7.9    7.6 0.3
16-4 93.6% 15.8    13.2 2.6 0.0
15-5 71.8% 16.3    9.4 6.2 0.8
14-6 31.8% 7.0    1.6 3.4 1.8 0.2 0.0
13-7 5.7% 0.9    0.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 49.9% 49.9 33.9 12.7 2.9 0.4 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 2.0% 50.6% 45.6% 5.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.0 1.0 9.2%
17-3 7.9% 41.7% 40.9% 0.8% 11.2 0.0 0.1 2.4 0.8 4.6 1.3%
16-4 16.8% 36.5% 36.0% 0.5% 11.5 0.0 0.0 3.2 2.9 0.0 10.7 0.8%
15-5 22.7% 31.0% 31.0% 0.1% 11.7 2.5 4.5 0.1 15.7 0.1%
14-6 22.0% 26.0% 26.0% 11.8 1.2 4.2 0.3 16.3
13-7 15.4% 23.1% 23.1% 12.0 0.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.8
12-8 8.5% 18.2% 18.2% 12.1 0.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.9
11-9 3.4% 12.7% 12.7% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 3.0
10-10 1.0% 13.0% 13.0% 12.4 0.1 0.1 0.8
9-11 0.2% 7.3% 7.3% 13.0 0.0 0.2
8-12 0.0% 0.0
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.9% 28.7% 0.3% 11.6 71.1 0.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.9% 100.0% 10.3 0.5 0.5 5.5 14.3 26.4 51.1 1.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4% 15.7% 11.0 15.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 7.1% 10.7 2.4 4.8