Air Force
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.0#300
Expected Predictive Rating-11.5#334
Pace62.0#331
Improvement-3.1#305

Offense
Total Offense-4.9#301
First Shot-2.8#257
After Offensive Rebound-2.1#302
Layup/Dunks+0.2#174
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#272
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
Freethrows-1.8#287
Improvement-2.6#301

Defense
Total Defense-3.0#269
First Shot-3.1#279
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#180
Layups/Dunks-0.7#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#331
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#197
Freethrows-0.2#200
Improvement-0.5#212
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 5
Quad 20 - 100 - 15
Quad 31 - 81 - 23
Quad 43 - 54 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 121   North Alabama L 57-73 24%     0 - 1 -16.4 -11.1 -7.2
  Nov 07, 2024 124   Jacksonville St. W 73-67 24%     1 - 1 +5.5 +7.2 -1.1
  Nov 11, 2024 301   LIU Brooklyn L 54-63 61%     1 - 2 -19.8 -9.3 -12.2
  Nov 15, 2024 127   Belmont L 71-79 25%     1 - 3 -8.8 +2.2 -11.8
  Nov 21, 2024 105   @ California L 69-78 9%     1 - 4 -2.3 +2.7 -5.6
  Nov 24, 2024 342   Mercyhurst W 82-48 75%     2 - 4 +19.1 +17.6 +8.2
  Nov 27, 2024 336   Sacramento St. L 61-63 73%     2 - 5 -16.3 -11.7 -4.7
  Nov 30, 2024 229   @ Wright St. L 57-70 25%     2 - 6 -13.9 -13.0 -2.5
  Dec 02, 2024 160   @ Miami (OH) L 60-73 16%     2 - 7 -10.2 -4.0 -7.9
  Dec 07, 2024 324   Stony Brook W 69-61 57%     3 - 7 -1.7 -10.3 +8.6
  Dec 16, 2024 130   @ Northern Colorado L 76-81 12%     3 - 8 -0.4 +2.2 -2.6
  Dec 21, 2024 52   @ Boise St. L 59-77 3%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -4.4 -2.9 -3.0
  Dec 31, 2024 92   UNLV L 58-77 16%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -16.2 -11.0 -5.2
  Jan 04, 2025 176   Wyoming L 65-70 34%     3 - 11 0 - 3 -8.7 +2.7 -12.2
  Jan 08, 2025 54   @ San Diego St. L 38-67 3%     3 - 12 0 - 4 -15.5 -21.9 +4.0
  Jan 11, 2025 156   San Jose St. L 62-69 30%     3 - 13 0 - 5 -9.5 -5.5 -4.9
  Jan 14, 2025 83   @ Nevada L 62-68 6%     3 - 14 0 - 6 +3.4 +0.1 +2.8
  Jan 17, 2025 258   @ Fresno St. L 65-74 30%     3 - 15 0 - 7 -11.5 -0.2 -12.3
  Jan 22, 2025 54   San Diego St. L 76-77 OT 8%     3 - 16 0 - 8 +7.0 +10.5 -3.5
  Jan 25, 2025 55   Utah St. L 58-87 8%     3 - 17 0 - 9 -21.1 -12.4 -10.2
  Jan 28, 2025 53   @ Colorado St. L 58-79 3%     3 - 18 0 - 10 -7.5 -4.7 -4.3
  Feb 01, 2025 156   @ San Jose St. L 64-75 15%     3 - 19 0 - 11 -8.0 -3.2 -5.6
  Feb 04, 2025 83   Nevada L 60-74 14%     3 - 20 0 - 12 -10.1 -3.0 -8.9
  Feb 08, 2025 41   New Mexico L 53-88 6%     3 - 21 0 - 13 -25.2 -17.3 -5.0
  Feb 11, 2025 92   @ UNLV L 52-77 7%     3 - 22 0 - 14 -16.7 -7.2 -13.0
  Feb 18, 2025 176   @ Wyoming L 62-69 18%     3 - 23 0 - 15 -5.1 -0.9 -5.1
  Feb 22, 2025 258   Fresno St. W 72-69 OT 50%     4 - 23 1 - 15 -5.0 -3.1 -2.0
  Feb 25, 2025 53   Colorado St. L 55-77 8%     4 - 24 1 - 16 -14.0 -12.2 -2.8
  Mar 01, 2025 41   @ New Mexico L 71-92 3%     4 - 25 1 - 17 -5.6 +1.8 -5.7
  Mar 04, 2025 52   Boise St. L 57-80 8%     4 - 26 1 - 18 -14.9 -11.1 -4.4
  Mar 08, 2025 55   @ Utah St. L 47-87 3%     4 - 27 1 - 19 -26.6 -14.9 -19.3
  Mar 12, 2025 92   UNLV L 58-72 11%    
Projected Record 4 - 28 1 - 19




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 100.0 100.0 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19 100.0% 100.0
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%
Lose Out 91.1%