Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +9.4 58
Expected Predictive Rating +10.2 58
Pace 66.0 249
Improvement -2.2 274

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense B #58 B B- B- A B
Defense B- #78 C+ A- C- B- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 72 60% 124 +3.3 77
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% 308 36% 254 -2.7 306
Three Pointers 43% 145 37% 42 +3.3 74
1st FG Attempt 1.10 70 +3.9 70
Second Chance 34.3% 76 1.07 121 0.37 75
Turnovers 15.3% 87
Freethrows 0.38 12 77% 31 0.29 7
Total Offense +5.8 58

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% 269 56% 129 +2.3 101
2 Pt. Jumpers 26% 40 41% 293 -2.9 350
Three Pointers 38% 259 34% 177 +1.5 121
1st FG Attempt 1.00 150 +0.8 150
Second Chance 21.3% 3 1.03 188 0.22 11
Turnovers 16.3% 215
Freethrows 0.28 111 69% 32 0.19 75
Total Defense +3.5 78

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +1.1 49 -0.9 46
Shot Type Accuracy +2.7 92 +0.1 186
Possession Length 17.2 163 18.2 313
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 219 0.16 158
Improvement +4.6 #10 -6.7 #365

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27% 30% 17%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21% 23% 12%
Average Seed 10.4 10.4 10.7
.500 or above 100% 100% 100%
.500 or above in Conference 95% 98% 84%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four13% 14% 9%
First Round20% 21% 13%
Second Round6% 6% 3%
Sweet Sixteen1% 1% 1%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: UNLV (Home) - 83.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 21 - 2
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 6
Quad 25 - 39 - 10
Quad 38 - 216 - 11
Quad 44 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 91 Utah Valley W 101 - 77 75% +12  97% 1 - 0 A+ +26 A+ +21 A+ A+ A+ B- +4 B B- C+
 Tue, Nov 11 149 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 65 86% +9  84% 2 - 0 A +18 C+ +3 B- A+ F A+ +13 C A+ B+
 Sat, Nov 15 162 Montana St. W 62 - 58 88% +2  68% 3 - 0 C +1 F+ -8 F+ F+ A- A- +9 B- A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 96 Wichita St. W 62 - 59 75% +4  73% 4 - 0 B- +5 D -5 F+ B B- A +11 A B+ B
 Mon, Nov 24 47 USC L 67 - 70 43% -2  19% 4 - 1 B +8 C- -1 C- B F+ A- +9 C+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 27 North Carolina St. L 70 - 81 28% -5  13% 4 - 2 C+ +4 C +0 B- D- C- B- +4 D A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 75 @Butler W 77 - 68 45% +2  64% 5 - 2 A +20 B+ +8 D B- A+ A +11 A B- D-
 Wed, Dec 10 108 Duquesne W 86 - 64 79% +12  98% 6 - 2 A+ +23 A- +10 B A- A+ A+ +13 A+ B D
 Sun, Dec 14 40 St. Mary's W 68 - 67 36% +6  94% 7 - 2 B+ +14 C +1 A C F A+ +13 A+ A+ D+
 Sat, Dec 20 66 @Nevada L 66 - 81 43% -10  2% 7 - 3 0 - 1 C- -4 C+ +3 A- D F+ D- -9 F A D+
 Tue, Dec 30 49 New Mexico W 62 - 53 55% -0  42% 8 - 3 1 - 1 A- +17 F+ -9 D+ F A+ A+ +26 A+ A+ D-
 Sat, Jan 3 43 @San Diego St. L 107 - 110 3OT 28% -6  20% 8 - 4 1 - 2 B+ +12 A +13 A- C- A C -0 D+ C D
 Wed, Jan 7 68 Grand Canyon L 58 - 75 66% -7  14% 8 - 5 1 - 3 D- -12 F+ -9 D F D C- -3 F+ A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 35 Utah St. L 68 - 93 43% -19  0% 8 - 6 1 - 4 D- -14 C +2 D A B+ F -17 C- F D-
 Tue, Jan 13 124 @UNLV L 85 - 89 OT 66% -0  39% 8 - 7 1 - 5 C +1 C -0 B+ F C- C+ +2 C C C-
 Fri, Jan 16 103 Colorado St. W 79 - 73 77% +6  95% 9 - 7 2 - 5 B- +8 A +12 B+ A+ D C- -3 F A+ A
 Tue, Jan 20 106 @Wyoming W 81 - 65 58% +10  72% 10 - 7 3 - 5 A+ +23 A+ +15 A+ D+ A A +10 C+ A- C
 Sat, Jan 24 349 Air Force W 96 - 54 98% +19  93% 11 - 7 4 - 5 A+ +26 A+ +28 A+ A+ A+ B +4 C B+ D
 Tue, Jan 27 236 @San Jose St. W 89 - 58 84% +9  85% 12 - 7 5 - 5 A+ +30 A+ +16 A A+ B+ A+ +15 A- B+ B
 Fri, Jan 30 68 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 86 43% -6  14% 12 - 8 5 - 6 D+ -6 B +6 C A- B F -13 F A- D-
 Tue, Feb 3 66 Nevada W 91 - 87 OT 65% +8  91% 13 - 8 6 - 6 B +9 A +12 A A+ B C- -3 D+ C- D
 Sat, Feb 7 49 @New Mexico W 91 - 90 33% +1  54% 14 - 8 7 - 6 A- +15 A+ +26 A+ B- A- F -11 F A+ F
 Fri, Feb 13 124 UNLV W 83 - 73 83%
 Wed, Feb 18 35 @Utah St. L 71 - 79 22%
 Sat, Feb 21 236 San Jose St. W 80 - 63 94%
 Tue, Feb 24 106 Wyoming W 77 - 69 77%
 Sat, Feb 28 140 @Fresno St. W 75 - 70 68%
 Tue, Mar 3 43 San Diego St. W 72 - 71 50%
 Sat, Mar 7 103 @Colorado St. W 72 - 70 55%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 9 +9 B +6 B B- B- B- +4 C+ A- C-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings B C+ D+ B B- 43% 14% 43% B B B- C+ B- B- A- B+ A B- C+ D+ C C 36% 26% 38% B C+ A+ C A- C- C+ B+ B-
1.17 60% 36% 37% +3 +1 1.10 34% 1.1 .37 15% .38 77% .29 1.04 56% 41% 34% 0 -1 1.00 21% 1.0 .22 16% .28 69% .26
Nov
8		 Utah Valley A+ A+ F A- A+ 51% 14% 35% A- A+ B+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A- A+ B- F+ F+ A+ B- 45% 22% 33% A- B A+ F B- C+ F F F
1.35 73% 29% 39% +9 +2 1.24 37% 1.4 .50 12% .52 79% .41 1.03 70% 45% 18% -1 0 1.00 22% 1.7 .37 21% .41 79% .32
Nov
11		 UT Rio Grande Valley C+ F+ F A+ B- 42% 19% 40% B- B- A+ A+ A+ F A+ F+ A+ A+ F+ C- C- D+ 33% 39% 29% A+ C A+ F+ A+ B+ F A+ C
1.12 50% 25% 47% +2 +1 1.07 48% 1.5 .74 26% .52 66% .34 0.86 69% 37% 36% +4 -3 1.04 12% 1.3 .15 21% .37 45% .17
Nov
15		 Montana St. F+ D F D+ F+ 27% 16% 58% D+ F+ F C- F+ A- A+ A+ A+ A- C+ B D C 25% 36% 40% A+ B- B+ A+ A+ D+ B+ A+ A
0.98 50% 14% 31% -9 0 0.84 21% 1.0 .21 13% .40 91% .36 0.92 54% 37% 38% +1 -3 0.98 24% 0.3 .08 14% .20 55% .11
Nov
18		 Wichita St. D F F A F 44% 22% 33% B+ F+ C+ B+ B B- A+ D A A A+ F+ A- A 40% 29% 31% B+ A B- B B+ B D C- D
0.97 40% 10% 40% -11 0 0.80 30% 1.1 .32 16% .43 65% .28 0.92 33% 46% 29% -10 -1 0.80 36% 0.9 .33 17% .36 68% .25
Nov
24		 USC C- D+ A+ F D 50% 10% 40% A+ C- B C+ B F+ F+ A+ D+ A- A+ D+ F C 30% 28% 42% A- C+ A+ A- A+ B- A+ A A+
0.96 50% 60% 24% -8 +2 0.90 33% 0.9 .31 22% .20 91% .18 1.01 40% 43% 48% +5 -2 1.08 23% 0.9 .19 19% .30 65% .19
Nov
25		 North Carolina St. C F+ A+ B B- 24% 9% 67% C B- B+ F D- C- A+ D+ A+ B- C- F F D- 39% 20% 41% B D A A+ A+ B- D- D+ F+
1.00 45% 50% 37% +1 0 1.04 33% 0.5 .16 21% .58 66% .38 1.16 63% 50% 45% +11 0 1.24 23% 0.6 .13 14% .38 78% .30
Dec
6		 Butler B+ C F F D- 54% 23% 23% B D A+ F+ B- A+ A+ A+ A+ A B- C- A+ A+ 52% 19% 29% C A A+ F B- D- A A+ A+
1.15 57% 25% 25% -7 +1 0.90 42% 0.8 .32 12% .44 81% .35 1.01 56% 40% 20% -7 +1 0.90 24% 1.6 .37 12% .29 59% .17
Dec
10		 Duquesne A- F F A+ B+ 35% 31% 35% D B C- A+ A- A+ D+ A+ B A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 38% 16% 45% B+ A+ A+ F B D B+ A+ A
1.22 44% 25% 61% +5 -2 1.10 26% 1.5 .39 11% .32 90% .29 0.91 67% 22% 20% -9 +1 0.85 17% 1.5 .25 16% .30 61% .18
Dec
14		 St. Mary's C B- A+ C+ A 36% 26% 38% C- A D- A+ C F B- A+ A- A+ A B- A+ A+ 40% 26% 34% B A+ A+ A A+ D+ F+ D+ F
0.99 59% 50% 33% +3 -1 1.06 18% 1.2 .21 22% .26 86% .22 0.98 47% 33% 25% -10 0 0.81 28% 0.9 .25 15% .41 83% .34
Dec
20		 Nevada C+ B C+ B- A- 45% 13% 43% B+ A- A F D F+ A+ F A+ D- D- F F F 40% 40% 20% A F A+ D- A D+ F D+ F
1.06 61% 40% 35% +3 +2 1.10 38% 0.6 .24 21% .63 61% .38 1.30 63% 50% 50% +11 -2 1.20 21% 1.2 .25 11% .61 79% .49
Dec
30		 New Mexico F+ B F F D 33% 15% 52% B+ D+ D F F A+ A+ F A- A+ A+ C- A+ A+ 32% 26% 42% A+ A+ A+ B+ A+ D- B A+ A
0.88 63% 29% 24% -8 0 0.88 22% 0.6 .14 13% .41 64% .26 0.75 44% 40% 13% -17 -1 0.65 18% 0.9 .16 11% .26 63% .16
Jan
3		 San Diego St. A A B- C A- 30% 15% 55% C+ A- B- D- C- A A A+ A+ C B+ F F C- 44% 24% 32% D- D+ A+ F C D F A+ D+
1.12 67% 36% 33% +2 0 1.06 30% 0.7 .21 18% .39 87% .34 1.15 55% 50% 43% +6 0 1.14 20% 1.8 .35 15% .39 66% .26
Jan
7		 Grand Canyon F+ C F+ F D 30% 30% 40% D+ D D- F F D A+ A A+ C- C- F C+ F+ 52% 13% 35% F+ F+ C+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+
0.86 54% 31% 24% -10 -2 0.79 20% 0.7 .14 21% .46 80% .37 1.11 61% 71% 32% +5 +2 1.15 32% 0.6 .19 18% .22 75% .16
Jan
10		 Utah St. C F A+ D- D- 37% 14% 49% B+ D A B+ A B+ A+ B A+ F D+ C- D D+ 43% 11% 46% C C- D- F F D- D D D-
1.04 38% 50% 29% -10 +1 0.84 40% 1.1 .46 18% .47 76% .36 1.42 65% 40% 38% +6 +2 1.17 41% 2.2 .90 12% .37 76% .28
Jan
13		 UNLV C B+ A+ F B 56% 22% 22% B B+ D- F F C- B+ B+ A C+ D D+ D+ D+ 31% 33% 35% A+ C D+ B- C C- D C- D
1.06 65% 50% 25% +3 +1 1.11 24% 0.5 .12 19% .45 76% .34 1.11 65% 44% 37% +6 -2 1.09 36% 0.8 .28 16% .42 71% .30
Jan
16		 Colorado St. A F+ A+ B B+ 27% 11% 61% B B+ A- A A+ D A+ A+ A+ C- D A+ F F 27% 20% 52% B+ F A- A+ A+ A B- F D
1.27 50% 80% 37% +5 0 1.14 35% 1.4 .48 18% .53 78% .41 1.17 67% 0% 61% +16 -1 1.32 26% 0.3 .09 24% .30 93% .28
Jan
20		 Wyoming A+ B A A+ A+ 49% 8% 43% B+ A+ C F+ D+ A F A+ D- A B+ F A C+ 41% 18% 41% B C+ A+ F+ A- C C C- C
1.25 64% 50% 41% +8 +2 1.24 25% 0.7 .18 12% .23 100% .23 1.00 50% 75% 28% 0 0 1.02 23% 1.1 .27 17% .33 78% .26
Jan
24		 Air Force A+ B- D- A+ A+ 43% 17% 40% B A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ B A+ F D C- 34% 23% 43% A- C A+ F+ B+ D A A A
1.55 65% 33% 52% +13 +1 1.30 42% 1.5 .65 6% .43 72% .31 0.87 40% 50% 37% -1 -1 0.98 13% 1.3 .16 19% .22 55% .12
Jan
27		 San Jose St. A+ A- A+ F B+ 74% 2% 24% A+ A A A A+ B+ A+ D+ A+ A+ B A+ C+ A- 24% 33% 43% B+ A- A+ F B+ B D A+ B-
1.33 71% 100% 27% +8 +5 1.28 45% 1.4 .64 15% .44 72% .32 0.87 50% 25% 33% -7 -3 0.84 22% 1.3 .27 18% .33 56% .18
Jan
30		 Grand Canyon B D+ F D+ D+ 49% 7% 44% A+ C B- A A- B A+ B A+ F F+ B F F 48% 22% 30% C F A+ F A- D- F+ F F
1.04 50% 0% 30% -9 +3 0.89 29% 1.3 .38 17% .45 76% .34 1.30 68% 30% 64% +17 +1 1.37 10% 2.5 .25 14% .40 83% .33
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
3		 Nevada A A+ C+ D+ A- 42% 10% 48% B+ A B- A+ A+ B A+ B+ A+ C- D- D C- D 33% 33% 33% A- D+ A+ F C- D A A A+
1.22 70% 40% 30% +3 +2 1.10 31% 1.8 .54 15% .55 77% .43 1.17 63% 42% 37% +5 -2 1.07 21% 1.9 .38 11% .29 68% .20
Feb
7		 New Mexico A+ C- A+ A+ A+ 19% 10% 71% B- A+ B C B- A- A+ A+ A+ F C- F F F 48% 10% 42% D F D+ A+ A+ F D+ B C-
1.35 56% 60% 44% +13 0 1.27 31% 1.0 .31 16% .48 96% .46 1.34 60% 60% 50% +13 +2 1.33 33% 0.5 .18 7% .34 71% .24



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.1 0.8 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.2 1.9 5.3 3rd
4th 0.4 5.4 9.0 0.7 15.5 4th
5th 0.5 5.5 14.3 4.4 0.0 24.7 5th
6th 0.7 9.7 21.9 10.8 0.5 43.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.9 4.6 1.0 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.3 1.3 0.3 0.0 1.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.8 4.0 15.0 28.9 30.8 17.1 3.4 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 1.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 3.4% 76.6% 14.8% 61.8% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.5 0.8 72.6%
13-7 17.1% 49.7% 11.7% 38.0% 10.3 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.0 4.1 8.6 43.0%
12-8 30.8% 31.4% 9.1% 22.3% 10.6 0.1 0.4 2.7 6.5 0.1 21.1 24.5%
11-9 28.9% 18.0% 6.5% 11.4% 10.8 0.1 1.0 4.0 0.0 23.7 12.2%
10-10 15.0% 9.1% 4.3% 4.8% 10.9 0.2 1.1 0.1 13.7 5.0%
9-11 4.0% 2.8% 2.3% 0.5% 11.0 0.1 3.9 0.5%
8-12 0.8% 3.8% 3.8% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.8
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.5% 8.0% 19.5% 10.4 72.5 21.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 7.2 8.0 16.0 34.0 30.0 12.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6% 88.5% 9.1 3.3 24.6 29.5 26.2 4.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 1.1% 73.0% 9.9 0.9 6.3 13.5 34.2 18.0