Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#57
Expected Predictive Rating+7.9#79
Pace68.2#200
Improvement-1.8#289

Offense
Total Offense+4.5#63
First Shot+2.5#106
After Offensive Rebound+2.1#65
Layup/Dunks+6.1#22
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.5#318
Freethrows+4.7#5
Improvement-3.6#357

Defense
Total Defense+5.0#53
First Shot+2.5#100
After Offensive Rebounds+2.5#30
Layups/Dunks-2.2#260
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#85
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#90
Freethrows+1.1#106
Improvement+1.8#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.6% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 27.3% 27.8% 14.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.1% 12.5% 3.9%
Average Seed 9.9 9.9 10.7
.500 or above 98.4% 98.6% 93.3%
.500 or above in Conference 93.7% 94.3% 80.6%
Conference Champion 21.4% 21.9% 8.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four4.3% 4.4% 1.9%
First Round25.2% 25.6% 14.1%
Second Round10.6% 10.8% 5.0%
Sweet Sixteen3.1% 3.1% 1.5%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.0% 0.4%
Final Four0.3% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 95.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 4
Quad 25 - 47 - 7
Quad 36 - 213 - 10
Quad 49 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 206   Oakland W 87-43 91%     1 - 0 +38.9 +17.1 +24.8
  Nov 09, 2024 59   @ San Francisco L 73-84 39%     1 - 1 +1.3 +10.5 -9.4
  Nov 17, 2024 34   Clemson W 84-71 51%     2 - 1 +22.3 +14.7 +7.4
  Nov 24, 2024 269   Hampton W 83-69 91%     3 - 1 +8.3 +9.4 -0.8
  Nov 25, 2024 123   South Dakota St. W 83-82 75%     4 - 1 +3.5 +11.4 -7.9
  Nov 26, 2024 154   Boston College L 61-63 81%     4 - 2 -1.8 -10.4 +8.6
  Dec 03, 2024 289   Utah Tech W 87-64 95%     5 - 2 +13.2 +16.4 -1.1
  Dec 07, 2024 78   Washington St. L 69-74 59%     5 - 3 +2.1 -2.2 +4.5
  Dec 14, 2024 42   St. Mary's W 67-65 OT 45%     6 - 3 +12.9 +4.8 +8.2
  Dec 17, 2024 305   Texas Southern W 82-51 96%     7 - 3 +20.0 +0.2 +18.1
  Dec 21, 2024 272   Air Force W 75-57 96%    
  Dec 28, 2024 184   @ San Jose St. W 75-67 77%    
  Dec 31, 2024 163   @ Wyoming W 73-66 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 43   San Diego St. W 70-68 56%    
  Jan 07, 2025 108   UNLV W 74-66 78%    
  Jan 11, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 72-75 38%    
  Jan 14, 2025 163   Wyoming W 76-63 88%    
  Jan 17, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 78-80 43%    
  Jan 22, 2025 105   @ Colorado St. W 71-69 58%    
  Jan 29, 2025 52   Nevada W 70-68 59%    
  Feb 01, 2025 257   Fresno St. W 83-65 95%    
  Feb 04, 2025 108   @ UNLV W 71-69 59%    
  Feb 07, 2025 184   San Jose St. W 78-64 89%    
  Feb 15, 2025 43   @ San Diego St. L 67-71 35%    
  Feb 19, 2025 70   New Mexico W 81-77 65%    
  Feb 22, 2025 52   @ Nevada L 67-71 37%    
  Feb 26, 2025 54   Utah St. W 75-72 59%    
  Mar 01, 2025 257   @ Fresno St. W 80-68 85%    
  Mar 04, 2025 272   @ Air Force W 72-60 87%    
  Mar 07, 2025 105   Colorado St. W 74-66 77%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.2 6.6 6.1 3.4 1.2 0.2 21.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.1 4.9 7.6 4.1 1.0 0.1 19.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.9 7.4 2.9 0.3 0.0 18.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.6 5.3 6.2 2.2 0.2 15.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.3 4.5 1.4 0.1 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.7 2.6 0.8 0.0 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 1.2 0.3 0.0 4.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.4 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.8 8.9 12.1 14.7 15.4 13.9 11.0 7.1 3.4 1.2 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 100.0% 1.2    1.2 0.0
18-2 98.1% 3.4    3.2 0.2
17-3 85.8% 6.1    4.6 1.4 0.1
16-4 59.5% 6.6    3.3 2.7 0.6 0.0
15-5 23.2% 3.2    0.8 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.7% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.4% 21.4 13.3 6.1 1.6 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 99.1% 57.8% 41.3% 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97.8%
19-1 1.2% 96.3% 44.3% 51.9% 5.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 93.3%
18-2 3.4% 87.1% 38.1% 49.0% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.4 79.1%
17-3 7.1% 71.0% 33.5% 37.5% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.0 2.0 56.4%
16-4 11.0% 50.7% 28.2% 22.5% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 2.3 0.1 5.4 31.3%
15-5 13.9% 32.8% 21.3% 11.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.8 0.3 9.4 14.7%
14-6 15.4% 21.3% 16.7% 4.5% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.3 0.5 0.0 12.1 5.4%
13-7 14.7% 14.6% 13.3% 1.3% 11.2 0.0 0.1 1.4 0.6 0.0 12.6 1.5%
12-8 12.1% 10.4% 10.1% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 0.0 10.9 0.3%
11-9 8.9% 7.1% 7.0% 0.1% 11.5 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 8.3 0.1%
10-10 5.8% 5.1% 5.1% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.5
9-11 3.3% 4.1% 4.1% 12.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.2
8-12 1.7% 2.5% 2.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.6
7-13 0.8% 1.5% 1.5% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.3% 0.3
5-15 0.1% 1.8% 1.8% 15.0 0.0 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 27.3% 17.3% 10.0% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.9 3.1 5.7 11.2 2.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 72.7 12.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 2.4 20.6 30.2 38.1 11.1