Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+10.9#52
Expected Predictive Rating+10.1#58
Pace65.3#260
Improvement-0.2#204

Offense
Total Offense+6.3#47
First Shot+4.4#70
After Offensive Rebound+2.0#73
Layup/Dunks+6.7#14
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#286
Freethrows+4.3#6
Improvement-0.9#234

Defense
Total Defense+4.5#63
First Shot+2.3#101
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#33
Layups/Dunks-0.5#186
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#191
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#145
Freethrows+1.5#78
Improvement+0.7#153
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 31.1% 50.1% 11.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 21.2% 33.5% 11.7%
Average Seed 10.6 10.5 11.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four15.0% 18.8% 11.1%
First Round23.0% 39.6% 6.0%
Second Round7.3% 12.7% 1.7%
Sweet Sixteen1.7% 2.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.8% 0.0%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 53 - 6
Quad 24 - 27 - 8
Quad 35 - 212 - 9
Quad 410 - 022 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 06, 2024 185   Oakland W 87-43 91%     1 - 0 +39.9 +17.0 +25.9
  Nov 09, 2024 67   @ San Francisco L 73-84 50%     1 - 1 +0.0 +8.4 -8.7
  Nov 17, 2024 21   Clemson W 84-71 39%     2 - 1 +26.7 +16.3 +10.2
  Nov 24, 2024 211   Hampton W 83-69 90%     3 - 1 +11.1 +11.0 +0.4
  Nov 25, 2024 135   South Dakota St. W 83-82 81%     4 - 1 +2.4 +10.1 -7.6
  Nov 26, 2024 168   Boston College L 61-63 85%     4 - 2 -2.5 -10.6 +8.1
  Dec 03, 2024 290   Utah Tech W 87-64 96%     5 - 2 +12.8 +15.8 -1.0
  Dec 07, 2024 120   Washington St. L 69-74 78%     5 - 3 -2.4 -6.9 +4.7
  Dec 14, 2024 26   St. Mary's W 67-65 OT 35%     6 - 3 +16.8 +8.1 +8.9
  Dec 17, 2024 279   Texas Southern W 82-51 96%     7 - 3 +21.6 +4.6 +15.3
  Dec 21, 2024 300   Air Force W 77-59 97%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +7.3 +6.3 +2.5
  Dec 28, 2024 156   @ San Jose St. W 73-71 77%     9 - 3 2 - 0 +5.0 +13.2 -7.9
  Dec 31, 2024 176   @ Wyoming W 67-58 80%     10 - 3 3 - 0 +10.9 +5.3 +6.7
  Jan 04, 2025 54   San Diego St. L 68-76 61%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +0.0 +3.7 -3.8
  Jan 07, 2025 92   UNLV W 81-59 78%     11 - 4 4 - 1 +24.8 +17.5 +8.9
  Jan 11, 2025 55   @ Utah St. L 79-81 40%     11 - 5 4 - 2 +11.4 +24.2 -13.2
  Jan 14, 2025 176   Wyoming W 96-55 91%     12 - 5 5 - 2 +37.3 +26.1 +12.7
  Jan 17, 2025 41   @ New Mexico L 65-84 33%     12 - 6 5 - 3 -3.6 -0.6 -2.4
  Jan 22, 2025 53   @ Colorado St. L 72-75 40%     12 - 7 5 - 4 +10.5 +13.4 -3.2
  Jan 29, 2025 83   Nevada W 66-56 75%     13 - 7 6 - 4 +13.9 +1.9 +13.1
  Feb 01, 2025 258   Fresno St. W 82-60 95%     14 - 7 7 - 4 +14.0 +9.4 +5.3
  Feb 04, 2025 92   @ UNLV W 71-62 60%     15 - 7 8 - 4 +17.3 +6.4 +11.2
  Feb 07, 2025 156   San Jose St. W 79-52 89%     16 - 7 9 - 4 +24.5 +12.8 +14.7
  Feb 15, 2025 54   @ San Diego St. L 47-64 40%     16 - 8 9 - 5 -3.5 -9.6 +3.9
  Feb 19, 2025 41   New Mexico W 86-78 54%     17 - 8 10 - 5 +17.8 +15.8 +1.7
  Feb 22, 2025 83   @ Nevada W 70-69 56%     18 - 8 11 - 5 +10.4 +7.8 +2.7
  Feb 26, 2025 55   Utah St. W 82-65 61%     19 - 8 12 - 5 +24.9 +14.3 +11.8
  Mar 01, 2025 258   @ Fresno St. W 66-61 89%     20 - 8 13 - 5 +2.5 +4.5 -1.2
  Mar 04, 2025 300   @ Air Force W 80-57 92%     21 - 8 14 - 5 +17.8 +7.8 +10.7
  Mar 07, 2025 53   Colorado St. L 73-83 61%     21 - 9 14 - 6 -2.0 +10.4 -13.4
  Mar 13, 2025 54   San Diego St. W 68-67 50%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 31.1% 12.6% 18.5% 10.6 0.4 2.3 8.6 17.6 2.3 68.9 21.2%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 31.1% 12.6% 18.5% 10.6 0.4 2.3 8.6 17.6 2.3 68.9 21.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.6% 100.0% 10.1 2.9 16.2 46.6 33.0 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 11.2% 41.0% 10.7 0.1 1.4 10.9 26.4 2.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 26.8% 30.3% 10.9 0.3 4.9 22.3 2.9
Lose Out 49.4% 11.7% 11.2 0.4 9.1 2.2