Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.3#59
Expected Predictive Rating+8.8#73
Pace66.3#265
Improvement-2.3#319

Offense
Total Offense+2.7#106
First Shot+1.1#146
After Offensive Rebound+1.6#92
Layup/Dunks-0.8#206
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.2#353
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.6#106
Freethrows+3.5#30
Improvement-2.5#353

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#27
First Shot+0.1#166
After Offensive Rebounds+6.5#1
Layups/Dunks+3.1#74
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.6#357
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.0#222
Freethrows+2.6#46
Improvement+0.2#163
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 1.0% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.8% 3.5% 0.9%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.8% 39.1% 23.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.1% 20.8% 8.2%
Average Seed 9.9 9.4 10.2
.500 or above 90.6% 96.6% 87.7%
.500 or above in Conference 88.4% 92.9% 86.2%
Conference Champion 22.7% 29.4% 19.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four4.5% 6.5% 3.6%
First Round26.5% 35.9% 22.0%
Second Round10.8% 16.0% 8.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.6% 4.1% 1.9%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.3% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Butler (Away) - 32.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 5
Quad 25 - 46 - 9
Quad 39 - 215 - 11
Quad 45 - 020 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 90 Utah Valley W 101-77 74%     1 - 0 +26.7 +24.5 +0.7
  Tue, Nov 11 213 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85-65 92%     2 - 0 +13.8 +2.5 +9.8
  Sat, Nov 15 152 Montana St. W 62-58 87%     3 - 0 +1.1 -5.5 +7.0
  Tue, Nov 18 97 Wichita St. W 62-59 76%     4 - 0 +5.0 -4.3 +9.6
  Mon, Nov 24 32 USC L 67-70 34%     4 - 1 +10.5 -0.7 +11.2
  Tue, Nov 25 35 North Carolina St. L 70-81 36%     4 - 2 +2.0 +0.2 +1.8
  Sat, Dec 6 44 @Butler L 71-76 32%    
  Wed, Dec 10 135 Duquesne W 79-68 83%    
  Sun, Dec 14 42 St. Mary's L 66-68 40%    
  Sat, Dec 20 105 @Nevada W 70-68 58%    
  Tue, Dec 30 103 New Mexico W 78-70 76%    
  Sat, Jan 3 52 @San Diego St. L 69-73 37%    
  Wed, Jan 7 94 Grand Canyon W 72-65 74%    
  Sat, Jan 10 51 Utah St. W 72-70 56%    
  Tue, Jan 13 131 @UNLV W 78-74 65%    
  Fri, Jan 16 74 Colorado St. W 72-67 66%    
  Tue, Jan 20 106 @Wyoming W 71-69 57%    
  Sat, Jan 24 332 Air Force W 76-54 98%    
  Tue, Jan 27 185 @San Jose St. W 72-64 77%    
  Fri, Jan 30 94 @Grand Canyon W 69-68 54%    
  Tue, Feb 3 105 Nevada W 73-65 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 103 @New Mexico W 75-73 56%    
  Fri, Feb 13 131 UNLV W 81-71 82%    
  Wed, Feb 18 51 @Utah St. L 69-73 35%    
  Sat, Feb 21 185 San Jose St. W 75-61 89%    
  Tue, Feb 24 106 Wyoming W 74-66 76%    
  Sat, Feb 28 179 @Fresno St. W 76-68 75%    
  Tue, Mar 3 52 San Diego St. W 72-70 57%    
  Sat, Mar 7 74 @Colorado St. L 69-70 46%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.0 6.2 5.7 3.5 1.5 0.3 22.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 2.1 6.2 6.2 3.2 0.7 0.1 18.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.6 5.4 1.5 0.2 0.0 14.8 3rd
4th 0.1 1.7 5.2 4.1 0.9 0.1 12.1 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 3.9 3.5 0.8 0.0 9.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.1 3.2 0.8 0.0 7.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.1 2.4 0.6 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 1.3 1.8 0.6 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.4 5.2 7.3 9.7 11.6 12.9 13.7 11.8 9.5 6.4 3.6 1.5 0.3 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
19-1 100.0% 1.5    1.5 0.0
18-2 97.8% 3.5    3.2 0.3
17-3 88.3% 5.7    4.5 1.1 0.0
16-4 64.9% 6.2    3.6 2.2 0.4 0.0
15-5 33.7% 4.0    1.5 1.8 0.6 0.1
14-6 9.3% 1.3    0.2 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0
13-7 1.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.7% 22.7 14.9 5.9 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.3% 97.8% 70.0% 27.8% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 92.6%
19-1 1.5% 93.5% 51.0% 42.5% 6.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 86.8%
18-2 3.6% 85.4% 45.4% 40.0% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.5 73.3%
17-3 6.4% 71.8% 39.1% 32.8% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.3 0.9 0.0 1.8 53.8%
16-4 9.5% 55.5% 32.8% 22.6% 10.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.0 0.1 4.3 33.7%
15-5 11.8% 39.8% 25.4% 14.4% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.7 0.1 7.1 19.3%
14-6 13.7% 29.5% 21.5% 8.0% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.8 0.3 9.7 10.2%
13-7 12.9% 18.0% 15.3% 2.6% 11.0 0.0 0.2 1.8 0.3 10.6 3.1%
12-8 11.6% 13.0% 11.5% 1.5% 11.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.4 0.0 10.1 1.7%
11-9 9.7% 8.9% 8.7% 0.3% 11.5 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 8.8 0.3%
10-10 7.3% 5.1% 5.1% 11.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 6.9
9-11 5.2% 3.0% 3.0% 12.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0
8-12 3.4% 2.8% 2.8% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.3
7-13 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 14.4 0.0 0.0 1.7
6-14 0.9% 0.9
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.8% 19.0% 9.8% 9.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.4 1.9 3.5 5.9 12.1 1.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 71.2 12.1%