Boise St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +8.4 #66
Expected Predictive Rating +8.9 #65
Pace 65.9 #268
Improvement -3.8 #333

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #96 B- C C+ A+ B-
Defense #50 B- A+ C C+ A-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #131 1.17 #163 +1.3 #129
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #259 0.72 #220 -1.7 #268
Three Pointers 43% #147 1.11 #53 +3.1 #85
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #110 +2.6 #109
Freethrows 21.4 #16 77% #49 16.4 #9
Second Chance 32.8% #119 0.99 #251 0.33 #160
Turnovers 16.0% #149
Total Offense +3.3 #96

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #268 1.11 #112 +2.7 #89
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #34 0.84 #306 -3.7 #360
Three Pointers 38% #276 0.94 #80 +3.3 #60
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #106 +2.3 #107
Freethrows 16.6 #155 71% #95 11.8 #131
Second Chance 21.2% #3 1.01 #129 0.21 #8
Turnovers 16.4% #182
Total Defense +5.1 #50

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #100 -2.1% #37
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.8% #115 -2.5% #140
Possession Length 17.4 #181 18.0 #291
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #160 0.17 #184
Improvement +0.0 #175 -3.8 #345

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 13.4% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 6.1% 6.1% 1.4%
Average Seed 10.5 10.5 10.9
.500 or above 96.5% 96.7% 84.5%
.500 or above in Conference 73.4% 73.9% 40.8%
Conference Champion 0.6% 0.6% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.9% 3.9% 1.0%
First Round11.0% 11.1% 4.6%
Second Round3.2% 3.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Air Force (Home) - 98.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 5
Quad 24 - 57 - 10
Quad 38 - 215 - 12
Quad 44 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 107 Utah Valley W 101 - 77 75% +12  1 - 0 +25 +23 A+ A+ A+ +1 B+ B B
 Tue, Nov 11 218 UT Rio Grande Valley W 85 - 65 91% +9  2 - 0 +14 +4 B- A+ F +8 C- A+ A
 Sat, Nov 15 152 Montana St. W 62 - 58 84% +2  3 - 0 +2 -5 D- F A- +7 B- A+ D+
 Tue, Nov 18 103 Wichita St. W 62 - 59 74% +4  4 - 0 +5 -5 F B- C +10 A+ A+ A-
 Mon, Nov 24 48 USC L 67 - 70 40% -2  4 - 1 +8 +1 D+ B+ F +7 C+ A+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 26 North Carolina St. L 70 - 81 26% -5  4 - 2 +4 +4 B- F C +1 D- A+ B
 Sat, Dec 6 59 @Butler W 77 - 68 34% +2  5 - 2 +22 +12 D+ B- A+ +9 A+ A F
 Wed, Dec 10 118 Duquesne W 86 - 64 79% +12  6 - 2 +22 +12 B+ A- A+ +10 A+ A D-
 Sun, Dec 14 42 St. Mary's W 68 - 67 36% +6  7 - 2 +13 +3 A+ C- F +10 A+ A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 80 @Nevada L 66 - 81 42% -10  7 - 3 0 - 1 -5 +5 A D- F -11 F A+ D
 Tue, Dec 30 51 New Mexico W 62 - 53 52% -0  8 - 3 1 - 1 +17 -6 C- F A+ +22 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 46 @San Diego St. L 107 - 110 3OT 29% -6  8 - 4 1 - 2 +11 +14 A D B+ -2 D C+ D+
 Wed, Jan 7 79 Grand Canyon L 58 - 75 65% -7  8 - 5 1 - 3 -13 -8 D- F D -5 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 39 Utah St. L 68 - 93 44% -19  8 - 6 1 - 4 -15 +3 D- A+ A- -20 D+ F D-
 Tue, Jan 13 114 @UNLV L 85 - 89 OT 57% -0  8 - 7 1 - 5 +2 +4 A+ F C -2 C C C
 Fri, Jan 16 96 Colorado St. W 79 - 73 72% +6  9 - 7 2 - 5 +8 +13 A- A+ D -4 F A+ A+
 Tue, Jan 20 108 @Wyoming W 81 - 65 55% +10  10 - 7 3 - 5 +23 +17 A+ D- A+ +7 B- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 340 Air Force W 77 - 54 98%
 Tue, Jan 27 238 @San Jose St. W 75 - 65 81%
 Fri, Jan 30 79 @Grand Canyon L 69 - 71 42%
 Tue, Feb 3 80 Nevada W 72 - 68 64%
 Sat, Feb 7 51 @New Mexico L 71 - 76 31%
 Fri, Feb 13 114 UNLV W 78 - 70 77%
 Wed, Feb 18 39 @Utah St. L 70 - 77 24%
 Sat, Feb 21 238 San Jose St. W 78 - 62 93%
 Tue, Feb 24 108 Wyoming W 75 - 68 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 143 @Fresno St. W 72 - 68 66%
 Tue, Mar 3 46 San Diego St. W 71 - 70 51%
 Sat, Mar 7 96 @Colorado St. L 70 - 71 50%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 9 +8 +3 B- C C+ +5 B- A+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.2 0.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.2 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.2 1.2 0.0 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.2 3.6 0.2 9.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 6.3 7.9 1.0 16.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.1 7.6 12.1 3.1 0.0 23.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 5.7 10.2 3.4 0.1 20.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.4 6.7 2.9 0.2 13.4 8th
9th 0.2 1.6 3.1 1.4 0.1 6.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.1 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.0 7.7 15.0 21.6 22.6 17.1 8.6 3.0 0.5 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 47.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 11.6% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.6% 0.6 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.5% 83.5% 26.4% 57.1% 8.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 77.6%
14-6 3.0% 62.7% 22.8% 39.9% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 1.1 51.7%
13-7 8.6% 35.9% 15.7% 20.2% 10.4 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.7 0.0 5.5 23.9%
12-8 17.1% 19.6% 10.6% 9.0% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.3 0.1 13.7 10.0%
11-9 22.6% 11.1% 7.9% 3.2% 10.9 0.0 0.3 2.1 0.1 20.1 3.4%
10-10 21.6% 5.6% 4.9% 0.7% 11.0 0.0 0.0 1.1 0.1 20.4 0.8%
9-11 15.0% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 11.2 0.0 0.5 0.2 14.3 0.0%
8-12 7.7% 2.3% 2.3% 11.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 7.5
7-13 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 12.4 0.0 0.0 3.0
6-14 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 14.0 0.0 0.8
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 13.3% 7.7% 5.6% 10.5 86.7 6.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 6.6 4.2 41.7 41.7 12.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 71.9% 9.4 18.8 12.5 34.4 6.3