Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#257
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#242
Pace81.0#5
Improvement+0.1#177

Offense
Total Offense-6.3#339
First Shot-5.6#331
After Offensive Rebound-0.7#222
Layup/Dunks+0.0#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#188
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#338
Freethrows+0.4#149
Improvement+0.6#130

Defense
Total Defense+1.0#140
First Shot+0.7#146
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#155
Layups/Dunks-2.4#268
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#237
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#164
Freethrows+3.1#19
Improvement-0.5#219
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 16.0
.500 or above 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
.500 or above in Conference 1.0% 1.4% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 44.7% 40.4% 48.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 44.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 40 - 6
Quad 21 - 81 - 14
Quad 32 - 73 - 21
Quad 46 - 39 - 23


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 335   Sacramento St. W 64-57 78%     1 - 0 -6.4 -12.2 +5.9
  Nov 13, 2024 139   @ UC Santa Barbara L 86-91 19%     1 - 1 -0.8 +2.5 -2.6
  Nov 16, 2024 229   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 33%     1 - 2 -16.6 -17.7 +1.7
  Nov 20, 2024 338   Prairie View W 94-83 80%     2 - 2 -3.3 -1.0 -3.6
  Nov 23, 2024 261   @ Long Beach St. W 72-69 39%     3 - 2 +0.6 -5.2 +5.7
  Nov 26, 2024 78   Washington St. L 73-84 13%     3 - 3 -3.9 -5.9 +3.5
  Nov 27, 2024 175   California Baptist L 81-86 2OT 34%     3 - 4 -5.9 -9.2 +4.2
  Dec 04, 2024 43   San Diego St. L 62-84 11%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -14.1 -11.8 -0.2
  Dec 07, 2024 74   @ Santa Clara L 66-81 8%     3 - 6 -4.5 -7.8 +4.6
  Dec 11, 2024 40   @ BYU L 67-95 5%     3 - 7 -14.0 -6.1 -5.5
  Dec 14, 2024 317   San Diego W 73-65 74%     4 - 7 -3.8 -4.0 +0.0
  Dec 21, 2024 175   California Baptist L 73-74 45%    
  Dec 28, 2024 108   @ UNLV L 66-78 12%    
  Dec 31, 2024 70   New Mexico L 77-87 17%    
  Jan 04, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 68-86 5%    
  Jan 07, 2025 105   @ Colorado St. L 66-79 12%    
  Jan 11, 2025 52   Nevada L 66-78 13%    
  Jan 17, 2025 272   Air Force W 70-66 63%    
  Jan 20, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 74-90 7%    
  Jan 25, 2025 105   Colorado St. L 69-76 27%    
  Jan 28, 2025 163   @ Wyoming L 68-76 24%    
  Feb 01, 2025 57   @ Boise St. L 65-83 5%    
  Feb 04, 2025 184   San Jose St. L 73-74 46%    
  Feb 07, 2025 54   Utah St. L 71-83 13%    
  Feb 11, 2025 52   @ Nevada L 63-81 5%    
  Feb 15, 2025 108   UNLV L 69-75 29%    
  Feb 18, 2025 43   @ San Diego St. L 62-81 4%    
  Feb 22, 2025 272   @ Air Force L 67-69 41%    
  Mar 01, 2025 57   Boise St. L 68-80 15%    
  Mar 04, 2025 163   Wyoming L 71-73 44%    
  Mar 08, 2025 184   @ San Jose St. L 70-77 27%    
Projected Record 9 - 22 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 4.0 7th
8th 0.2 1.7 3.7 3.6 1.3 0.2 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.9 4.5 7.5 5.4 1.8 0.2 0.0 20.3 9th
10th 0.2 3.3 9.8 11.3 5.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 31.8 10th
11th 2.1 7.1 11.0 7.9 2.8 0.4 0.0 0.0 31.3 11th
Total 2.1 7.4 14.3 18.7 18.7 15.4 10.7 6.7 3.4 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0% 0.0
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 2.8% 2.8% 12.0 0.0 0.1
11-9 0.2% 0.2
10-10 0.7% 0.7
9-11 1.7% 1.7
8-12 3.4% 0.1% 0.1% 15.0 0.0 3.4
7-13 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
6-14 10.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 10.7
5-15 15.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.3
4-16 18.7% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.7
3-17 18.7% 18.7
2-18 14.3% 14.3
1-19 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 7.3
0-20 2.1% 2.1
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.2%