Fresno St.
Mountain West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.6#259
Expected Predictive Rating-7.0#283
Pace78.5#11
Improvement+1.2#132

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#288
First Shot-2.6#247
After Offensive Rebound-1.6#277
Layup/Dunks-0.3#197
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.6#204
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#214
Freethrows-0.5#207
Improvement+3.9#19

Defense
Total Defense-1.5#216
First Shot-2.3#253
After Offensive Rebounds+0.8#109
Layups/Dunks-3.1#296
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#247
Freethrows+3.4#12
Improvement-2.8#316
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 29.5% 14.6% 38.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Jose St. (Home) - 36.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 50 - 7
Quad 20 - 80 - 15
Quad 31 - 81 - 23
Quad 46 - 27 - 25


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 337   Sacramento St. W 64-57 79%     1 - 0 -7.0 -12.7 +5.8
  Nov 13, 2024 158   @ UC Santa Barbara L 86-91 21%     1 - 1 -2.1 +1.6 -3.0
  Nov 16, 2024 258   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 58-74 40%     1 - 2 -19.1 -19.8 +1.3
  Nov 20, 2024 348   Prairie View W 94-83 81%     2 - 2 -3.9 +2.2 -7.4
  Nov 23, 2024 305   @ Long Beach St. W 72-69 50%     3 - 2 -2.7 -7.6 +4.7
  Nov 26, 2024 103   Washington St. L 73-84 17%     3 - 3 -6.5 -8.1 +3.2
  Nov 27, 2024 161   California Baptist L 81-86 2OT 28%     3 - 4 -4.7 -7.3 +3.6
  Dec 04, 2024 52   San Diego St. L 62-84 11%     3 - 5 0 - 1 -14.3 -9.4 -2.7
  Dec 07, 2024 64   @ Santa Clara L 66-81 7%     3 - 6 -4.0 -8.1 +5.3
  Dec 11, 2024 33   @ BYU L 67-95 3%     3 - 7 -11.8 -5.4 -4.1
  Dec 14, 2024 311   San Diego W 73-65 70%     4 - 7 -3.1 -4.9 +1.7
  Dec 21, 2024 161   California Baptist L 69-86 37%     4 - 8 -19.2 -2.5 -17.5
  Dec 28, 2024 101   @ UNLV L 77-87 12%     4 - 9 0 - 2 -2.9 +8.6 -11.7
  Dec 31, 2024 40   New Mexico L 89-103 9%     4 - 10 0 - 3 -4.6 +5.1 -7.0
  Jan 04, 2025 49   @ Utah St. L 83-89 5%     4 - 11 0 - 4 +6.7 +7.0 +0.2
  Jan 07, 2025 77   @ Colorado St. L 64-91 8%     4 - 12 0 - 5 -17.1 -5.2 -11.0
  Jan 11, 2025 88   Nevada L 66-77 OT 18%     4 - 13 0 - 6 -7.0 -8.7 +2.4
  Jan 17, 2025 277   Air Force W 74-65 63%     5 - 13 1 - 6 +0.1 +5.3 -4.2
  Jan 20, 2025 40   @ New Mexico L 67-95 4%     5 - 14 1 - 7 -13.6 -7.0 -2.5
  Jan 25, 2025 77   Colorado St. L 64-69 16%     5 - 15 1 - 8 +0.0 +2.5 -3.2
  Jan 28, 2025 167   @ Wyoming L 72-83 OT 22%     5 - 16 1 - 9 -8.5 +0.0 -8.3
  Feb 01, 2025 51   @ Boise St. L 60-82 5%     5 - 17 1 - 10 -9.3 -5.9 -4.2
  Feb 04, 2025 146   San Jose St. L 73-77 36%    
  Feb 07, 2025 49   Utah St. L 73-86 12%    
  Feb 10, 2025 88   @ Nevada L 64-79 7%    
  Feb 15, 2025 101   UNLV L 70-78 26%    
  Feb 18, 2025 52   @ San Diego St. L 62-80 4%    
  Feb 22, 2025 277   @ Air Force L 70-72 42%    
  Mar 01, 2025 51   Boise St. L 69-82 12%    
  Mar 04, 2025 167   Wyoming L 70-73 40%    
  Mar 08, 2025 146   @ San Jose St. L 71-80 18%    
Projected Record 7 - 24 3 - 17




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.5 2.5 1.6 0.2 4.8 9th
10th 4.6 22.8 29.3 18.4 6.3 0.6 81.9 10th
11th 6.5 4.9 1.0 0.1 12.5 11th
Total 11.1 27.7 30.2 19.0 8.9 2.6 0.4 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13 0.4% 0.4
6-14 2.6% 2.6
5-15 8.9% 8.9
4-16 19.0% 19.0
3-17 30.2% 30.2
2-18 27.7% 27.7
1-19 11.1% 11.1
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 10.1%