Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.9 #207
Expected Predictive Rating -1.3 #188
Pace 80.2 #8
Improvement +4.4 #26

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #203 C C C- C B+
Defense #222 C C- D C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 48% #10 1.10 #248 +4.0 #54
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #258 0.70 #267 -1.9 #280
Three Pointers 36% #297 1.00 #196 -3.0 #285
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #210 -0.9 #211
Freethrows 17.7 #161 69% #293 12.2 #207
Second Chance 33.3% #108 0.96 #287 0.32 #176
Turnovers 17.0% #220
Total Offense -1.3 #203

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #317 1.20 #239 +2.4 #99
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #257 0.78 #221 +0.7 #142
Three Pointers 49% #21 0.99 #142 -3.2 #306
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #186 -0.2 #186
Freethrows 16.9 #167 78% #350 13.2 #224
Second Chance 25.9% #36 1.29 #360 0.34 #228
Turnovers 14.7% #286
Total Defense -1.6 #222

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.3% #43 -0.1% #154
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -4.0% #239 0.4% #190
Possession Length 15.0 #19 17.2 #167
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #128 0.20 #263
Improvement +1.2 #117 +3.2 #28

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 4.2% 2.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.0 14.4
.500 or above 44.1% 68.1% 39.4%
.500 or above in Conference 52.9% 76.9% 48.2%
Conference Champion 1.0% 3.7% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 2.8% 0.6% 3.3%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round2.3% 4.1% 2.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Away) - 16.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 75 - 11
Quad 410 - 515 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 110 @Northern Iowa L 57 - 86 18% -17  0 - 1 -22 -9 F F F -13 F D- C
 Sun, Nov 9 297 @North Dakota W 93 - 85 57% +4  1 - 1 +3 +9 B- B- D+ -7 D D- F
 Tue, Nov 11 147 @North Dakota St. L 68 - 90 26% -5  1 - 2 -18 -12 F A F -3 A+ F F
 Sun, Nov 16 112 Troy W 94 - 85 37% +4  2 - 2 +9 +17 A A+ D -8 F A+ F
 Wed, Nov 26 183 Idaho L 64 - 78 45% -4  2 - 3 -16 -14 F C C- -1 A+ F C
 Fri, Nov 28 219 Idaho St. L 50 - 82 52% -18  2 - 4 -35 -31 F D- F -3 C+ F B-
 Thu, Dec 4 299 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87 - 66 78% +7  3 - 4 1 - 0 +10 +5 C+ B C +4 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 123 @UC Irvine L 71 - 85 21% +0  3 - 5 1 - 1 -9 +5 C+ F A+ -14 C- F D-
 Wed, Dec 10 143 Fresno St. W 89 - 87 47% +4  4 - 5 -0 +17 A+ F B+ -17 F A F
 Sat, Dec 13 295 @Delaware W 88 - 66 57% +19  5 - 5 +17 +17 A+ D+ C+ +1 B- B A+
 Mon, Dec 22 290 Sacramento St. W 100 - 88 76% +4  6 - 5 +2 +7 A F A- -8 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 27 77 @Stanford L 80 - 88 11% -1  6 - 6 +3 +7 A- F C -4 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 1 181 @UC Davis L 80 - 89 34% -6  6 - 7 1 - 2 -7 +1 C- D+ F -8 F A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 3 144 UC Santa Barbara W 74 - 65 47% +6  7 - 7 2 - 2 +7 -7 D+ C+ F +13 A+ A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 281 Cal Poly W 95 - 90 74% -3  8 - 7 3 - 2 -5 +5 A+ B- D- -10 C- D+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 229 @Cal St. Fullerton L 79 - 86 42% +1  8 - 8 3 - 3 -8 -1 C D C -6 D- C D+
 Thu, Jan 15 109 @UC San Diego W 84 - 79 18% +2  9 - 8 4 - 3 +12 +11 C- A+ A+ +0 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 17 250 Long Beach St. L 80 - 87 69% -0  9 - 9 4 - 4 -15 -6 F A+ D -8 D- B- C
 Sun, Jan 25 106 @Hawaii L 72 - 82 16%
 Thu, Jan 29 181 UC Davis W 83 - 81 56%
 Sat, Jan 31 109 UC San Diego L 78 - 82 36%
 Thu, Feb 5 281 @Cal Poly W 89 - 88 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 293 UC Riverside W 83 - 75 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 106 Hawaii L 75 - 79 35%
 Thu, Feb 19 144 @UC Santa Barbara L 77 - 84 27%
 Sat, Feb 21 250 @Long Beach St. L 79 - 80 46%
 Thu, Feb 26 123 UC Irvine L 76 - 78 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 293 @UC Riverside W 80 - 78 56%
 Thu, Mar 5 299 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 82 - 80 57%
 Sat, Mar 7 229 Cal St. Fullerton W 88 - 84 64%
Totals 15 - 15 10 - 10 -3 -1 C C C- -2 C C- D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.1 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.8 3.5 2.6 0.2 7.2 3rd
4th 0.1 1.8 6.2 5.1 0.7 13.8 4th
5th 0.1 2.1 8.6 7.2 1.1 0.0 19.1 5th
6th 0.0 2.0 8.5 7.9 1.6 0.0 20.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 6.4 7.0 1.9 0.0 16.2 7th
8th 0.2 3.7 5.3 1.4 0.1 10.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 3.3 1.0 0.0 5.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 1.5 0.6 0.0 2.6 10th
11th 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 11th
Total 0.2 1.0 3.6 8.5 14.8 19.1 20.2 15.9 10.1 4.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 76.6% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 31.9% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.6% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.0% 1.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-5 0.3% 25.0% 25.0% 12.9 0.0 0.1 0.2
14-6 1.5% 15.6% 15.6% 13.6 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-7 4.8% 8.1% 8.1% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 4.5
12-8 10.1% 5.4% 5.4% 14.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 9.5
11-9 15.9% 3.4% 3.4% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 15.3
10-10 20.2% 1.5% 1.5% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 19.9
9-11 19.1% 0.9% 0.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 19.0
8-12 14.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.1 14.7
7-13 8.5% 8.5
6-14 3.6% 3.6
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 14.3 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%