Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.3#113
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#111
Pace79.0#8
Improvement+2.7#81

Offense
Total Offense+2.0#119
First Shot+1.6#123
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#157
Layup/Dunks+0.7#151
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#104
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#262
Freethrows+2.2#62
Improvement+3.9#28

Defense
Total Defense+1.4#128
First Shot+1.1#142
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#153
Layups/Dunks+8.1#8
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#28
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#331
Freethrows-4.8#362
Improvement-1.2#247
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 8.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.3 12.3 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round5.4% 8.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 21 - 3
Quad 20 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 37 - 9
Quad 414 - 121 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 110   @ St. Bonaventure L 56-70 38%     0 - 1 -7.6 -16.3 +9.9
  Nov 06, 2024 355   @ Le Moyne W 97-75 91%     1 - 1 +10.5 +5.4 +2.9
  Nov 16, 2024 336   @ Sacramento St. W 79-69 87%     2 - 1 +1.2 +4.0 -2.7
  Nov 24, 2024 290   Utah Tech W 89-79 84%     3 - 1 +2.5 +9.4 -7.1
  Nov 25, 2024 302   Denver W 89-60 86%     4 - 1 +20.9 +11.1 +9.1
  Nov 27, 2024 172   @ Montana L 75-83 55%     4 - 2 -5.9 -5.3 +0.1
  Nov 30, 2024 175   @ Montana St. W 72-69 OT 55%     5 - 2 +4.9 -4.1 +8.8
  Dec 05, 2024 142   UC Riverside L 64-68 69%     5 - 3 0 - 1 -5.7 -11.9 +6.2
  Dec 07, 2024 194   @ Cal Poly W 102-91 59%     6 - 3 1 - 1 +12.0 +12.0 -1.8
  Dec 18, 2024 62   @ USC L 69-90 21%     6 - 4 -9.0 -1.9 -6.5
  Dec 21, 2024 361   Chicago St. W 81-57 97%     7 - 4 +4.3 -8.4 +10.2
  Jan 02, 2025 351   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 95-65 90%     8 - 4 2 - 1 +19.5 +15.3 +2.8
  Jan 04, 2025 236   UC Davis W 73-61 83%     9 - 4 3 - 1 +5.2 -3.0 +7.5
  Jan 09, 2025 70   UC Irvine L 67-77 43%     9 - 5 3 - 2 -4.9 -5.0 +0.8
  Jan 11, 2025 245   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 90-94 69%     9 - 6 3 - 3 -5.8 +8.1 -13.7
  Jan 16, 2025 221   @ Hawaii W 83-60 65%     10 - 6 4 - 3 +22.4 +14.8 +8.7
  Jan 23, 2025 294   Long Beach St. W 86-76 90%     11 - 6 5 - 3 -0.4 +8.9 -9.1
  Jan 25, 2025 47   @ UC San Diego L 54-79 16%     11 - 7 5 - 4 -10.9 -13.2 +3.2
  Jan 30, 2025 152   @ UC Santa Barbara W 78-71 51%     12 - 7 6 - 4 +10.1 +8.4 +2.0
  Feb 01, 2025 245   Cal St. Bakersfield W 88-62 84%     13 - 7 7 - 4 +18.7 +4.6 +12.6
  Feb 06, 2025 351   Cal St. Fullerton W 82-63 95%     14 - 7 8 - 4 +3.0 +1.5 +0.9
  Feb 08, 2025 294   @ Long Beach St. W 81-80 78%     15 - 7 9 - 4 -3.9 +3.7 -7.6
  Feb 15, 2025 194   Cal Poly W 89-85 77%     16 - 7 10 - 4 -0.6 -3.5 +2.2
  Feb 20, 2025 70   @ UC Irvine W 84-72 24%     17 - 7 11 - 4 +22.6 +22.8 +0.2
  Feb 22, 2025 236   @ UC Davis W 65-62 67%     18 - 7 12 - 4 +1.7 +3.7 -1.6
  Feb 27, 2025 47   UC San Diego L 71-77 31%     18 - 8 12 - 5 +2.6 +1.8 +0.8
  Mar 01, 2025 152   UC Santa Barbara W 103-77 71%     19 - 8 13 - 5 +23.6 +23.8 -1.0
  Mar 06, 2025 142   @ UC Riverside L 79-94 48%     19 - 9 13 - 6 -11.2 +2.7 -13.1
  Mar 08, 2025 221   Hawaii W 82-73 81%     20 - 9 14 - 6 +2.9 +5.0 -2.4
Projected Record 20 - 9 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 100.0% 5.4% 5.4% 12.3 0.1 4.0 1.3 0.0 94.6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 12.3 0.1 4.0 1.3 0.0 94.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 5.4% 100.0% 12.3 0.9 73.9 24.4 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 9.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 53.0%
Lose Out 32.7%