Cal St. Northridge
Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.1#127
Expected Predictive Rating+1.9#142
Pace79.6#8
Improvement+2.6#70

Offense
Total Offense+0.2#179
First Shot+0.0#175
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#168
Layup/Dunks+0.2#174
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#282
Freethrows+1.9#77
Improvement+2.0#78

Defense
Total Defense+1.9#119
First Shot+1.5#127
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#139
Layups/Dunks+8.4#8
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.1#27
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.3#332
Freethrows-4.7#362
Improvement+0.6#154
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 6.3% 4.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.8 12.7 12.9
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 98.8% 90.8%
Conference Champion 0.8% 0.9% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round6.1% 6.3% 4.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Home) - 90.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 3
Quad 21 - 31 - 6
Quad 35 - 46 - 9
Quad 413 - 220 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 95   @ St. Bonaventure L 56-70 29%     0 - 1 -6.2 -17.9 +12.9
  Nov 06, 2024 355   @ Le Moyne W 97-75 88%     1 - 1 +11.0 +7.4 +1.4
  Nov 16, 2024 337   @ Sacramento St. W 79-69 85%     2 - 1 +1.0 +4.3 -3.2
  Nov 24, 2024 292   Utah Tech W 89-79 81%     3 - 1 +2.9 +10.4 -7.7
  Nov 25, 2024 331   Denver W 89-60 88%     4 - 1 +18.4 +8.2 +9.4
  Nov 27, 2024 207   @ Montana L 75-83 57%     4 - 2 -7.8 -6.1 -1.0
  Nov 30, 2024 189   @ Montana St. W 72-69 OT 54%     5 - 2 +4.1 -4.5 +8.4
  Dec 05, 2024 163   UC Riverside L 64-68 66%     5 - 3 0 - 1 -6.3 -11.1 +4.8
  Dec 07, 2024 276   @ Cal Poly W 102-91 72%     6 - 3 1 - 1 +7.1 +9.5 -4.2
  Dec 18, 2024 54   @ USC L 69-90 17%     6 - 4 -8.6 -0.1 -7.9
  Dec 21, 2024 359   Chicago St. W 81-57 95%     7 - 4 +7.3 -4.7 +9.5
  Jan 02, 2025 317   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 95-65 80%     8 - 4 2 - 1 +23.3 +15.8 +6.1
  Jan 04, 2025 216   UC Davis W 73-61 77%     9 - 4 3 - 1 +6.4 -2.5 +8.2
  Jan 09, 2025 67   UC Irvine L 67-77 37%     9 - 5 3 - 2 -4.5 -4.2 +0.5
  Jan 11, 2025 258   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 90-94 69%     9 - 6 3 - 3 -7.1 +8.3 -15.1
  Jan 16, 2025 180   @ Hawaii W 83-60 52%     10 - 6 4 - 3 +24.6 +15.5 +10.2
  Jan 23, 2025 305   Long Beach St. W 86-76 88%     11 - 6 5 - 3 -0.7 +7.9 -8.4
  Jan 25, 2025 65   @ UC San Diego L 54-79 21%     11 - 7 5 - 4 -14.3 -14.9 +1.6
  Jan 30, 2025 158   @ UC Santa Barbara W 78-71 47%     12 - 7 6 - 4 +9.9 +9.1 +1.1
  Feb 01, 2025 258   Cal St. Bakersfield W 88-62 83%     13 - 7 7 - 4 +18.0 +5.1 +11.4
  Feb 06, 2025 317   Cal St. Fullerton W 82-68 91%    
  Feb 08, 2025 305   @ Long Beach St. W 79-71 76%    
  Feb 15, 2025 276   Cal Poly W 91-80 86%    
  Feb 20, 2025 67   @ UC Irvine L 71-79 20%    
  Feb 22, 2025 216   @ UC Davis W 74-71 59%    
  Feb 27, 2025 65   UC San Diego L 73-77 38%    
  Mar 01, 2025 158   UC Santa Barbara W 77-73 65%    
  Mar 06, 2025 163   @ UC Riverside L 76-77 46%    
  Mar 08, 2025 180   Hawaii W 77-72 72%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.4 3.2 0.6 6.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 5.2 14.4 13.2 3.2 0.0 36.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 7.0 16.6 11.4 2.0 0.0 37.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.9 6.6 3.1 0.3 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.2 1.1 0.1 4.3 6th
7th 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.2 1.8 6.1 15.1 25.0 26.5 17.7 6.7 1.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 39.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1
15-5 5.1% 0.3    0.0 0.2 0.2
14-6 0.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.8% 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.0% 23.5% 23.5% 11.7 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.8
15-5 6.7% 14.5% 14.5% 12.3 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.0 5.7
14-6 17.7% 7.5% 7.5% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 16.4
13-7 26.5% 6.6% 6.6% 12.8 0.6 0.9 0.2 0.0 24.7
12-8 25.0% 4.7% 4.7% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 23.8
11-9 15.1% 3.7% 3.7% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 14.5
10-10 6.1% 1.3% 1.3% 13.4 0.1 0.0 6.0
9-11 1.8% 1.8
8-12 0.2% 0.2
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 12.8 0.2 2.1 2.9 0.9 0.1 93.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.7 33.3 62.5 4.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.3%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%