Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.9#167
Expected Predictive Rating+0.1#173
Pace62.0#351
Improvement+2.1#40

Offense
Total Offense-1.3#200
First Shot-0.4#188
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#228
Layup/Dunks-1.5#233
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#270
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#95
Freethrows-0.3#197
Improvement-0.1#186

Defense
Total Defense+0.4#158
First Shot-0.2#176
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#145
Layups/Dunks+1.6#116
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#282
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#147
Freethrows-1.4#269
Improvement+2.2#26
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 13.5% 8.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 56.4% 61.2% 35.4%
.500 or above in Conference 67.0% 69.5% 55.9%
Conference Champion 15.1% 16.5% 9.1%
Last Place in Conference 6.2% 5.2% 10.7%
First Four0.8% 0.7% 1.4%
First Round12.4% 13.3% 8.3%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Denver (Home) - 81.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 34 - 75 - 11
Quad 411 - 315 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 262 @San Diego W 71-68 57%     1 - 0 +0.3 +3.0 -2.4
  Sun, Nov 9 52 @San Diego St. L 57-73 10%     1 - 1 -3.0 -2.2 -2.9
  Sat, Nov 15 114 @Seattle L 74-83 24%     1 - 2 -2.5 +14.9 -18.5
  Tue, Nov 18 55 @Santa Clara L 55-64 11%     1 - 3 +3.6 -7.3 +10.1
  Wed, Nov 26 133 Sam Houston St. L 81-84 40%     1 - 4 -1.2 +4.1 -5.2
  Fri, Nov 28 253 Cal St. Northridge W 82-50 66%     2 - 4 +26.8 +1.6 +22.8
  Wed, Dec 3 339 @UMKC W 68-59 75%     3 - 4 +0.9 +3.2 -1.0
  Sat, Dec 6 291 Denver W 76-67 81%    
  Wed, Dec 10 90 @Utah Valley L 63-73 18%    
  Sun, Dec 21 168 UC Davis W 68-65 61%    
  Thu, Jan 1 274 Sacramento St. W 75-67 79%    
  Sat, Jan 3 156 Portland St. W 69-67 58%    
  Thu, Jan 8 151 @Northern Colorado L 67-71 36%    
  Sat, Jan 10 263 @Northern Arizona W 69-67 56%    
  Wed, Jan 14 187 @Idaho L 67-69 43%    
  Sat, Jan 17 251 Eastern Washington W 75-68 73%    
  Thu, Jan 22 152 @Montana St. L 65-69 36%    
  Sat, Jan 24 197 @Montana L 71-73 44%    
  Sat, Jan 31 192 @Weber St. L 70-72 44%    
  Mon, Feb 2 156 @Portland St. L 66-70 37%    
  Thu, Feb 5 263 Northern Arizona W 72-64 76%    
  Sat, Feb 7 151 Northern Colorado W 70-68 56%    
  Thu, Feb 12 251 @Eastern Washington W 72-71 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 187 @Idaho L 67-69 43%    
  Thu, Feb 19 197 Montana W 74-70 65%    
  Sat, Feb 21 152 Montana St. W 68-66 56%    
  Sat, Feb 28 192 Weber St. W 73-69 64%    
  Mon, Mar 2 274 @Sacramento St. W 72-70 58%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.8 4.2 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 15.1 1st
2nd 0.4 3.2 5.0 3.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 13.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 5.8 2.9 0.5 0.0 13.3 3rd
4th 0.2 2.9 6.2 3.0 0.3 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.1 2.2 5.8 2.8 0.4 11.4 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 4.9 2.9 0.4 9.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.8 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.7 2.7 0.4 0.0 7.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 3.6 10th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.8 6.0 8.6 10.8 12.4 13.5 12.7 10.2 7.6 5.5 3.0 1.5 0.5 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
17-1 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
16-2 99.6% 1.5    1.4 0.1
15-3 92.6% 2.7    2.3 0.5
14-4 76.1% 4.2    2.9 1.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 49.8% 3.8    1.9 1.5 0.4 0.0
12-6 19.6% 2.0    0.5 0.9 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.1% 15.1 9.5 4.2 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.1% 50.0% 50.0% 11.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.5% 31.0% 31.0% 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
16-2 1.5% 40.8% 40.8% 12.9 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.9
15-3 3.0% 39.3% 39.3% 13.2 0.2 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.8
14-4 5.5% 28.7% 28.7% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 3.9
13-5 7.6% 23.2% 23.2% 13.9 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.3 5.9
12-6 10.2% 19.1% 19.1% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 8.3
11-7 12.7% 15.0% 15.0% 14.6 0.1 0.7 1.0 0.1 10.8
10-8 13.5% 11.7% 11.7% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.2 11.9
9-9 12.4% 7.2% 7.2% 15.3 0.0 0.5 0.3 11.5
8-10 10.8% 4.6% 4.6% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.4 10.3
7-11 8.6% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.3
6-12 6.0% 2.7% 2.7% 16.0 0.2 5.9
5-13 3.8% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.1 3.8
4-14 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 2.3
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16 0.4% 0.4
1-17 0.1% 0.1
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.2 3.8 1.5 87.3 0.0%