Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -5.0 250
Expected Predictive Rating -6.2 262
Pace 62.8 329
Improvement -8.0 363

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #159 C+ C C- C+ B-
Defense D #318 D+ C- D+ D+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% 193 55% 238 -1.1 225
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% 297 41% 78 -1.7 266
Three Pointers 47% 54 36% 77 +4.9 37
1st FG Attempt 1.06 113 +2.0 111
Second Chance 32.4% 126 0.99 241 0.32 153
Turnovers 17.4% 210
Freethrows 0.31 170 73% 154 0.23 151
Total Offense +0.1 159

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 114 60% 226 -2.3 262
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 212 50% 365 -1.9 325
Three Pointers 39% 238 33% 126 +1.5 122
1st FG Attempt 1.07 273 -2.8 273
Second Chance 30.7% 189 1.09 280 0.34 243
Turnovers 15.0% 300
Freethrows 0.32 227 77% 353 0.25 289
Total Defense -5.1 318

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection +0.7 93 +0.4 237
Shot Type Accuracy +1.2 125 +2.3 275
Possession Length 19.7 359 17.0 137
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 341 0.19 246
Improvement -3.0 #321 -5.0 #358

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 16.0 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0% 0% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 1% 2% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 39% 23% 47%
First Four2% 2% 2%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Away) - 34.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 103 - 15
Quad 47 - 510 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 216 @San Diego W 71 - 68 31% +7  78% 1 - 0 C+ +3 C+ +2 C- D+ A- C+ +1 C B- D+
 Sun, Nov 9 43 @San Diego St. L 57 - 73 4% -11  0% 1 - 1 C -1 C +0 A- C F C- -3 F A+ B
 Sat, Nov 15 132 @Seattle L 74 - 83 18% -9  1% 1 - 2 C- -4 A+ +16 B+ A+ C F -21 F F B-
 Tue, Nov 18 44 @Santa Clara L 55 - 64 4% -5  2% 1 - 3 B- +6 F+ -10 C- F F+ A+ +15 A+ B- D-
 Wed, Nov 26 121 Sam Houston St. L 81 - 84 23% -1  29% 1 - 4 C -0 B- +4 A F F D+ -4 C F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 186 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 50 37% +18  82% 2 - 4 A+ +30 C- -0 B- A D- A+ +29 A+ B- B
 Wed, Dec 3 357 @UMKC W 68 - 59 75% +0  26% 3 - 4 C- -3 C +0 D B+ D- C- -2 D C+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 257 Denver W 93 - 79 63% +6  81% 4 - 4 B- +6 A +12 A- B A- D -5 C F C
 Wed, Dec 10 91 @Utah Valley L 69 - 73 11% +1  40% 4 - 5 C+ +4 C +0 B- F B- B +4 C+ A- A-
 Sun, Dec 21 180 UC Davis L 83 - 93 47% -8  2% 4 - 6 D- -14 A- +11 A+ C+ B- F -26 F D- F
 Thu, Jan 1 254 Sacramento St. W 97 - 84 63% +10  93% 5 - 6 1 - 0 C+ +5 C+ +3 A- D+ A- C -0 B- D C-
 Sat, Jan 3 142 Portland St. L 87 - 93 OT 38% +5  75% 5 - 7 1 - 1 D+ -8 A- +10 A+ D+ A+ F -18 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 175 @Northern Colorado L 72 - 85 25% -11  1% 5 - 8 1 - 2 D -11 C+ +2 D+ C D- F -14 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 311 @Northern Arizona W 81 - 79 54% +2  60% 6 - 8 2 - 2 C- -4 B+ +7 A- A- F F -11 B- F C+
 Thu, Jan 15 189 Idaho W 76 - 68 50% -2  15% 7 - 8 3 - 2 C+ +3 C+ +2 A- F B- C+ +1 A+ F D
 Sat, Jan 17 229 Eastern Washington L 66 - 84 56% -15  0% 7 - 9 3 - 3 F -25 F -12 F B- A F -13 F A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 22 162 @Montana St. L 62 - 74 23% -5  4% 7 - 10 3 - 4 D -9 D -4 D+ B+ B- D -6 C- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 170 @Montana L 60 - 69 24% -8  1% 7 - 11 3 - 5 D+ -7 F -10 F B- F+ B- +3 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 31 232 @Weber St. L 79 - 81 35% +4  86% 7 - 12 3 - 6 C- -3 B- +4 A F C D- -7 D+ D- C
 Mon, Feb 2 142 @Portland St. L 65 - 88 19% -13  4% 7 - 13 3 - 7 F -19 B- +4 C- A+ F F -26 F F F
 Thu, Feb 5 311 Northern Arizona L 73 - 79 75% -4  15% 7 - 14 3 - 8 F -18 C+ +2 B- B A F -21 F A- F
 Sat, Feb 7 175 Northern Colorado L 61 - 69 46% -3  24% 7 - 15 3 - 9 D- -12 F -13 F B- B- C +0 C- F+ B+
 Thu, Feb 12 229 @Eastern Washington L 74 - 78 34%
 Sat, Feb 14 189 @Idaho L 70 - 76 28%
 Thu, Feb 19 170 Montana L 73 - 74 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 162 Montana St. L 70 - 72 44%
 Sat, Feb 28 232 Weber St. W 77 - 75 57%
 Mon, Mar 2 254 @Sacramento St. L 77 - 80 40%
Totals 9 - 19 5 - 13 -5 C +0 C+ C C- D -5 D+ C- D+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C- B- B- C+ 38% 15% 47% B- C+ C+ C- C C- C C+ C+ D C- F C+ D+ 41% 19% 39% C- D+ C D+ C- D+ C- F D+
1.09 55% 41% 36% +1 +1 1.06 32% 1.0 .32 17% .31 73% .23 1.16 60% 50% 33% +2 0 1.07 31% 1.1 .34 15% .32 77% .24
Nov
7		 San Diego C+ F A A- D+ 46% 9% 46% B+ C- B F D+ A- C+ F D+ C+ A F F B- 49% 16% 35% F C D- A B- D+ D+ B- C-
1.12 48% 50% 38% -1 +2 1.04 41% 0.8 .34 16% .36 63% .22 1.07 46% 50% 41% 0 +1 1.04 34% 0.8 .26 16% .26 71% .19
Nov
9		 San Diego St. C A- F C B+ 40% 12% 49% A- A- A- F+ C F B- C- C+ C- F B- D+ F 46% 20% 35% F F A A+ A+ B A- C A-
0.92 65% 20% 33% 0 +1 1.05 35% 0.7 .23 31% .33 71% .23 1.18 90% 33% 38% +16 +1 1.35 24% 0.6 .14 19% .24 75% .18
Nov
15		 Seattle A+ D+ F A+ B 49% 9% 42% A B+ A+ B A+ C B- B B F D+ F F F 43% 14% 43% D+ F D F F B- B- F+ C
1.19 50% 25% 42% 0 +2 1.07 48% 1.0 .48 21% .32 75% .24 1.33 63% 83% 53% +21 +1 1.45 29% 1.5 .43 19% .26 77% .20
Nov
18		 Santa Clara F+ A+ F F+ C- 30% 15% 55% C- C- F+ F F F+ B C B- A+ A+ F A+ A+ 47% 6% 47% F A+ F+ A+ B- D- F B- F
0.86 75% 17% 27% -4 0 0.95 23% 0.7 .16 25% .37 72% .27 1.00 39% 67% 17% -19 +2 0.69 43% 0.8 .36 12% .36 70% .25
Nov
26		 Sam Houston St. B- A+ A+ C+ A 34% 11% 55% B A C+ F F F A+ A A+ D+ B+ F C C 38% 19% 43% C C F D+ F C+ F F F
1.12 77% 50% 33% +7 +1 1.18 32% 0.6 .18 23% .74 78% .58 1.16 50% 56% 35% +1 0 1.04 52% 1.1 .55 18% .47 79% .37
Nov
28		 Cal St. Northridge C- F A+ C B 25% 22% 53% D B- C- A+ A D- C B C+ A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 21% 26% 53% A+ A+ B- B B- B C F D-
1.09 46% 73% 33% +4 -1 1.08 25% 1.9 .46 19% .31 79% .24 0.66 25% 13% 20% -24 -2 0.49 30% 0.9 .26 20% .31 79% .25
Dec
3		 UMKC C A+ F F D- 37% 11% 52% B- D A C B+ D- D+ B+ C C- C F A+ D+ 43% 26% 31% D D C- B- C+ B- F+ F+ F
1.12 76% 20% 25% -2 +1 1.00 45% 1.0 .45 20% .25 75% .18 0.97 56% 55% 23% -2 0 0.98 29% 0.8 .23 21% .34 75% .25
Dec
6		 Denver A F A+ A+ A- 38% 8% 55% B- A- B- C+ B A- C- A C+ D C- F A- C 40% 23% 36% D- C D F F C F B- F
1.38 45% 50% 52% +11 +2 1.26 39% 1.2 .45 9% .29 78% .23 1.18 58% 55% 29% +1 0 1.04 33% 1.4 .47 15% .47 74% .35
Dec
10		 Utah Valley C F A+ A- C+ 45% 10% 45% A- B- D- F F B- D+ D+ D B F D- A+ C 44% 16% 40% B- C+ D- A+ A- A- D+ F F
1.01 43% 60% 39% -1 +2 1.04 24% 0.8 .18 19% .31 71% .22 1.06 75% 43% 22% +1 +1 1.07 41% 0.8 .31 25% .33 82% .27
Dec
21		 UC Davis A- C A+ A+ A+ 35% 8% 58% B- A+ B D+ C+ B- A+ B A+ F F F A+ F 45% 25% 29% C F C+ F D- F D F F
1.26 57% 67% 48% +14 +1 1.33 37% 0.9 .33 17% .60 76% .46 1.41 91% 54% 27% +16 0 1.33 26% 1.3 .35 9% .38 91% .35
Jan
1		 Sacramento St. C+ F+ C A+ A 37% 12% 51% C- A- D- B- D+ A- A- D B+ C A+ F B+ B- 37% 31% 31% C+ B- B- F D C- F B+ F
1.20 48% 43% 48% +8 +1 1.19 26% 1.2 .32 12% .38 70% .27 1.04 35% 53% 29% -6 -1 0.87 26% 1.5 .38 15% .54 73% .39
Jan
3		 Portland St. A- B- B- A+ A+ 35% 10% 56% B A+ B- F D+ A+ A F B F F F C- F 45% 17% 38% C- F A+ A+ A+ F F F F
1.18 61% 40% 41% +8 +1 1.19 33% 0.7 .24 14% .47 67% .31 1.26 75% 67% 35% +13 +1 1.30 22% 0.5 .11 11% .40 85% .33
Jan
8		 Northern Colorado C+ B C- F D 53% 17% 30% B D+ B+ F C D- A D+ A- F F F F F 27% 10% 63% C- F B+ B- B+ F D+ C+ D+
1.11 64% 38% 14% -6 +2 0.94 33% 0.9 .31 15% .42 74% .31 1.31 71% 60% 42% +14 +1 1.31 23% 1.0 .23 12% .26 73% .19
Jan
10		 Northern Arizona B+ A A+ C A 41% 20% 39% D+ A- A+ D+ A- F A+ A A+ F C+ B- A+ B+ 60% 14% 26% F B- F F F C+ F F F
1.26 72% 67% 35% +12 0 1.27 48% 1.0 .48 22% .42 81% .34 1.23 56% 33% 27% -4 +2 0.98 38% 1.6 .62 17% .49 77% .38
Jan
15		 Idaho C+ F A+ A+ A 39% 25% 36% C A- D+ F F B- A- A A+ C+ D- F A+ A+ 38% 13% 49% D+ A+ B+ F F D F A F
1.14 41% 64% 50% +9 -1 1.18 23% 0.6 .13 13% .43 80% .35 1.02 65% 50% 14% -11 +1 0.82 23% 2.0 .46 13% .54 65% .35
Jan
17		 Eastern Washington F F A+ F F 41% 13% 46% C+ F C B B- A B- A+ A F B F F F 38% 33% 29% A- F A A+ A+ C- F F F
0.98 42% 67% 19% -13 +1 0.78 33% 1.3 .42 12% .35 90% .32 1.24 50% 50% 67% +15 -2 1.29 24% 0.3 .08 18% .61 82% .50
Jan
22		 Montana St. D C- D- F+ D 44% 7% 49% A- D+ C A+ B+ B- A- F C D A D F C 35% 22% 43% D C- D- D- F+ F A B+ A
0.99 55% 33% 27% -6 +2 0.93 31% 1.3 .41 14% .34 61% .21 1.18 44% 45% 41% +1 0 1.04 34% 1.2 .40 10% .18 70% .12
Jan
24		 Montana F F D- D+ F 31% 21% 48% C- F C- A B- F+ C- D+ D+ B- D+ D+ B C+ 46% 13% 41% D- C A- A+ A+ F+ A+ F A+
0.89 40% 30% 30% -10 -1 0.81 28% 1.3 .35 19% .28 67% .18 1.03 64% 43% 32% +2 +2 1.09 16% 0.4 .06 16% .16 89% .14
Jan
31		 Weber St. B- C+ A+ A+ A 47% 12% 41% B A F F F C F+ A D+ D- A C- F D 40% 22% 38% A- D+ D- D D- C C- F D-
1.17 63% 67% 43% +11 +2 1.27 19% 0.4 .08 16% .27 80% .21 1.20 45% 36% 47% +2 0 1.06 36% 1.1 .39 16% .36 80% .28
Feb
2		 Portland St. B- C+ F D+ D+ 51% 14% 35% A- C- A+ B A+ F A+ C A+ F B F F F 54% 20% 26% D+ F C F F F D+ F D-
1.05 58% 0% 31% -7 +2 0.92 47% 1.1 .50 24% .58 74% .43 1.42 52% 60% 54% +9 +1 1.22 31% 1.3 .41 6% .33 79% .26
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
5		 Northern Arizona C+ A- D D+ C+ 52% 7% 41% A- B- F A+ B A C+ C+ B- F F F F F 38% 21% 40% D+ F A+ F A- F C- F+ D+
1.23 70% 33% 33% +5 +3 1.18 24% 1.8 .43 12% .31 75% .23 1.33 72% 60% 47% +18 0 1.38 9% 1.5 .14 8% .28 73% .20
Feb
7		 Northern Colorado F F F C- F 44% 19% 37% C F D+ A+ B- B- D- F F+ C D+ D+ C- C- 41% 24% 35% B- C- B+ F F+ B+ A F B
0.94 39% 20% 32% -13 +1 0.77 24% 1.4 .34 11% .28 69% .19 1.07 65% 42% 35% +4 0 1.10 23% 1.7 .38 20% .15 88% .14



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 3rd
4th 0.1 0.4 0.5 4th
5th 0.0 1.1 0.2 1.3 5th
6th 1.1 2.5 0.0 3.6 6th
7th 0.7 5.4 1.0 7.1 7th
8th 0.7 8.6 7.0 0.2 16.5 8th
9th 0.8 9.2 23.6 17.0 2.0 52.5 9th
10th 4.1 8.3 5.5 0.7 0.0 18.5 10th
Total 4.9 17.4 29.7 27.0 15.5 4.8 0.7 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.7% 4.4% 4.4% 15.0 0.0 0.7
8-10 4.8% 6.5% 6.5% 15.8 0.1 0.3 4.5
7-11 15.5% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 15.1
6-12 27.0% 3.1% 3.1% 16.0 0.8 26.2
5-13 29.7% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.6 29.1
4-14 17.4% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.2 17.2
3-15 4.9% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.8
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 16.0 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.1%