Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.2#234
Expected Predictive Rating-5.8#259
Pace63.5#306
Improvement-1.5#255

Offense
Total Offense-1.4#217
First Shot-7.2#346
After Offensive Rebound+5.8#3
Layup/Dunks-4.5#327
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#156
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#315
Freethrows+1.3#97
Improvement+3.2#32

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#258
First Shot-0.1#184
After Offensive Rebounds-2.7#345
Layups/Dunks+3.1#72
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#279
Freethrows-1.6#286
Improvement-4.7#355
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.3% 8.8% 5.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.5 15.9
.500 or above 12.9% 21.1% 5.2%
.500 or above in Conference 64.2% 80.8% 48.8%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.8% 0.2% 1.4%
First Four3.3% 2.9% 3.6%
First Round5.9% 7.7% 4.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Away) - 48.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 32 - 62 - 9
Quad 410 - 612 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 61   @ Arizona St. L 48-55 8%     0 - 1 +4.5 -14.6 +18.7
  Nov 07, 2024 54   @ USC L 69-75 7%     0 - 2 +6.4 +5.0 +1.2
  Nov 16, 2024 311   @ San Diego W 78-66 57%     1 - 2 +5.9 -2.6 +7.5
  Nov 18, 2024 317   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-62 60%     1 - 3 -7.7 -6.2 -1.6
  Nov 20, 2024 29   @ UCLA L 70-84 4%     1 - 4 +2.8 +14.9 -13.8
  Dec 04, 2024 262   @ South Dakota L 80-94 46%     1 - 5 -17.2 +3.6 -21.4
  Dec 07, 2024 315   Oral Roberts W 71-55 76%     2 - 5 +4.5 -7.5 +12.9
  Dec 18, 2024 132   Utah Valley L 56-70 37%     2 - 6 -14.9 -15.5 +0.9
  Jan 02, 2025 250   @ Northern Arizona W 72-67 44%     3 - 6 1 - 0 +2.2 +1.3 +1.1
  Jan 04, 2025 154   @ Northern Colorado L 92-93 OT 24%     3 - 7 1 - 1 +2.1 +9.5 -7.2
  Jan 11, 2025 286   Weber St. L 69-77 69%     3 - 8 1 - 2 -17.3 -5.2 -12.6
  Jan 16, 2025 189   Montana St. W 70-67 49%     4 - 8 2 - 2 -0.8 +7.3 -7.6
  Jan 18, 2025 207   Montana W 86-61 52%     5 - 8 3 - 2 +20.2 +14.7 +7.3
  Jan 23, 2025 337   @ Sacramento St. L 71-75 68%     5 - 9 3 - 3 -13.0 -0.5 -12.7
  Jan 25, 2025 215   @ Portland St. L 59-76 36%     5 - 10 3 - 4 -17.5 -11.7 -6.2
  Jan 30, 2025 252   Eastern Washington W 78-70 64%     6 - 10 4 - 4 +0.2 +2.9 -2.6
  Feb 01, 2025 249   Idaho W 87-71 63%     7 - 10 5 - 4 +8.3 +18.6 -8.0
  Feb 03, 2025 154   Northern Colorado L 72-86 41%     7 - 11 5 - 5 -15.8 -1.7 -14.6
  Feb 08, 2025 286   @ Weber St. W 70-69 48%    
  Feb 13, 2025 207   @ Montana L 70-74 32%    
  Feb 15, 2025 189   @ Montana St. L 67-72 29%    
  Feb 20, 2025 215   Portland St. W 71-70 57%    
  Feb 22, 2025 337   Sacramento St. W 70-60 83%    
  Feb 27, 2025 249   @ Idaho L 71-72 44%    
  Mar 01, 2025 252   @ Eastern Washington L 70-71 43%    
  Mar 03, 2025 250   Northern Arizona W 73-69 65%    
Projected Record 11 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 1st
2nd 0.6 2.5 2.2 0.4 5.7 2nd
3rd 1.1 7.9 7.2 1.3 0.0 17.5 3rd
4th 0.5 8.9 10.8 1.6 0.0 21.7 4th
5th 0.2 4.8 12.7 2.5 0.1 20.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 10.8 4.0 0.1 16.3 6th
7th 0.5 5.5 4.7 0.2 10.8 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 3.2 0.4 5.4 8th
9th 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.0 1.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.1 0.1 10th
Total 0.4 3.6 10.6 21.1 26.8 21.8 11.4 3.7 0.5 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 14.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.5% 22.0% 22.0% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 3.7% 18.2% 18.2% 14.9 0.1 0.5 0.0 3.0
11-7 11.4% 11.8% 11.8% 15.3 0.0 0.9 0.5 10.1
10-8 21.8% 10.0% 10.0% 15.8 0.5 1.7 19.7
9-9 26.8% 7.1% 7.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9 24.9
8-10 21.1% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8 20.3
7-11 10.6% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 10.4
6-12 3.6% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 3.5
5-13 0.4% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.1 92.7 0.0%