Preseason Rankings
Idaho St.
Big Sky
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating-6.8#282
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace65.3#260
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-4.4#298
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#257
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 7.5% 3.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 20.2% 37.6% 15.4%
.500 or above in Conference 35.3% 48.2% 31.7%
Conference Champion 4.7% 8.5% 3.6%
Last Place in Conference 22.9% 14.0% 25.4%
First Four1.2% 1.3% 1.2%
First Round4.2% 7.3% 3.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego (Away) - 21.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 72 - 11
Quad 49 - 811 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2025 183   @ San Diego L 70-78 22%    
  Nov 09, 2025 38   @ San Diego St. L 54-77 2%    
  Nov 15, 2025 121   @ Seattle L 59-71 14%    
  Nov 18, 2025 105   @ Santa Clara L 64-78 10%    
  Nov 26, 2025 194   Sam Houston St. L 66-71 34%    
  Nov 28, 2025 176   Cal St. Northridge L 70-76 32%    
  Dec 03, 2025 301   @ UMKC L 63-65 43%    
  Dec 06, 2025 321   Denver W 71-65 69%    
  Dec 10, 2025 119   @ Utah Valley L 62-74 14%    
  Dec 21, 2025 252   UC Davis W 66-65 54%    
  Jan 01, 2026 272   Sacramento St. W 67-65 58%    
  Jan 03, 2026 213   Portland St. L 67-68 47%    
  Jan 08, 2026 190   @ Northern Colorado L 67-75 25%    
  Jan 10, 2026 263   @ Northern Arizona L 66-70 35%    
  Jan 14, 2026 235   @ Idaho L 66-72 32%    
  Jan 17, 2026 247   Eastern Washington W 70-69 53%    
  Jan 22, 2026 217   @ Montana St. L 63-70 29%    
  Jan 24, 2026 189   @ Montana L 65-73 26%    
  Jan 31, 2026 279   @ Weber St. L 65-68 39%    
  Feb 02, 2026 213   @ Portland St. L 64-71 29%    
  Feb 05, 2026 263   Northern Arizona W 69-67 56%    
  Feb 07, 2026 190   Northern Colorado L 70-72 44%    
  Feb 12, 2026 247   @ Eastern Washington L 67-72 34%    
  Feb 14, 2026 235   @ Idaho L 66-72 33%    
  Feb 19, 2026 189   Montana L 68-70 44%    
  Feb 21, 2026 217   Montana St. L 66-67 48%    
  Feb 28, 2026 279   Weber St. W 68-65 59%    
  Mar 02, 2026 272   @ Sacramento St. L 64-68 38%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 6.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.9 2.8 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.2 3.8 1.8 0.2 0.0 8.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 2.2 4.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.8 2.4 0.2 0.0 10.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.6 5.1 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 3.3 5.3 3.0 0.4 0.0 12.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.9 4.3 5.0 2.5 0.4 14.6 9th
10th 0.6 1.9 3.6 4.4 3.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 15.9 10th
Total 0.6 1.9 3.9 6.4 9.0 10.3 11.0 11.2 10.4 9.5 8.3 6.2 4.6 3.1 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.0
15-3 89.5% 1.0    0.8 0.2 0.0
14-4 65.9% 1.2    0.7 0.4 0.1
13-5 39.2% 1.2    0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0
12-6 12.0% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 4.7% 4.7 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 66.8% 66.8% 12.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 57.1% 57.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.5% 36.4% 36.4% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
15-3 1.1% 34.2% 34.2% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 1.8% 23.7% 23.7% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.4
13-5 3.1% 20.3% 20.3% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 2.5
12-6 4.6% 14.7% 14.7% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 3.9
11-7 6.2% 8.9% 8.9% 17.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 5.7
10-8 8.3% 6.9% 6.9% 17.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 7.7
9-9 9.5% 5.0% 5.0% 17.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 9.0
8-10 10.4% 2.3% 2.3% 17.3 0.0 0.2 10.1
7-11 11.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.4 0.0 0.1 11.1
6-12 11.0% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 10.9
5-13 10.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 10.3
4-14 9.0% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 9.0
3-15 6.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.4
2-16 3.9% 3.9
1-17 1.9% 1.9
0-18 0.6% 0.6
Total 100% 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.4 1.9 95.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%