Idaho St.
Big Sky
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -3.5 #219
Expected Predictive Rating -3.6 #224
Pace 63.6 #317
Improvement -5.4 #359

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #147 B- C C- B- B-
Defense #295 C- C- D+ F D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #198 1.12 #228 -1.3 #232
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #307 0.91 #27 -1.2 #237
Three Pointers 48% #49 1.10 #70 +5.5 #33
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #95 +3.0 #95
Freethrows 19.6 #80 72% #210 14.1 #97
Second Chance 33.6% #97 0.94 #316 0.32 #183
Turnovers 17.0% #218
Total Offense +0.6 #147

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #103 1.19 #230 -2.4 #259
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #219 1.01 #365 -1.8 #312
Three Pointers 40% #225 0.95 #90 +2.2 #109
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #243 -2.0 #242
Freethrows 20.3 #317 76% #308 15.4 #330
Second Chance 31.5% #229 1.07 #228 0.34 #235
Turnovers 15.2% #255
Total Defense -4.1 #295

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #85 0.8% #244
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.3% #105 3.1% #238
Possession Length 20.1 #361 17.0 #122
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #332 0.19 #240
Improvement -1.1 #245 -4.3 #353

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.7% 8.1% 4.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 17.8% 33.2% 11.9%
.500 or above in Conference 41.2% 63.7% 32.7%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.7% 2.9%
First Four1.6% 1.3% 1.7%
First Round5.1% 7.7% 4.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Montana (Away) - 27.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 33 - 83 - 12
Quad 410 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 209 @San Diego W 71 - 68 37% +7  1 - 0 +3 +5 C D A+ -2 C B+ D+
 Sun, Nov 9 46 @San Diego St. L 57 - 73 6% -11  1 - 1 -2 +1 A C- F -5 F A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 121 @Seattle L 74 - 83 19% -9  1 - 2 -3 +18 A- A+ C+ -23 F F B
 Tue, Nov 18 54 @Santa Clara L 55 - 64 7% -5  1 - 3 +4 -7 C F F +10 A+ A- F
 Wed, Nov 26 124 Sam Houston St. L 81 - 84 28% -1  1 - 4 -1 +6 A+ F F -7 C F C+
 Fri, Nov 28 207 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 50 48% +18  2 - 4 +29 +2 C+ A+ F +25 A+ B A
 Wed, Dec 3 353 @UMKC W 68 - 59 74% +0  3 - 4 -1 +2 F A- F -1 D B- B
 Sat, Dec 6 280 Denver W 93 - 79 72% +6  4 - 4 +4 +13 A C+ A+ -8 C F C
 Wed, Dec 10 107 @Utah Valley L 69 - 73 16% +1  4 - 5 +3 +2 B F C +1 C+ B- A+
 Sun, Dec 21 181 UC Davis L 83 - 93 54% -8  4 - 6 -14 +13 A+ C+ C -28 F D F
 Thu, Jan 1 290 Sacramento St. W 97 - 84 74% +10  5 - 6 1 - 0 +3 +6 A D B+ -5 D- C- C
 Sat, Jan 3 153 Portland St. L 87 - 93 OT 46% +5  5 - 7 1 - 1 -8 +12 A+ D+ A+ -20 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 8 185 @Northern Colorado L 72 - 85 32% -11  5 - 8 1 - 2 -12 +4 D+ C D- -17 F B+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 315 @Northern Arizona W 81 - 79 61% +2  6 - 8 2 - 2 -4 +11 A+ A+ F -15 C F C
 Thu, Jan 15 183 Idaho W 76 - 68 55% -2  7 - 8 3 - 2 +3 +3 A F B- +0 A+ F D
 Sat, Jan 17 243 Eastern Washington L 66 - 84 65% -15  7 - 9 3 - 3 -26 -10 F C+ A+ -17 F A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 152 @Montana St. L 62 - 74 25% -5  7 - 10 3 - 4 -8 -1 C B C -8 C F F
 Sat, Jan 24 161 @Montana L 72 - 78 28%
 Sat, Jan 31 217 @Weber St. L 74 - 77 39%
 Mon, Feb 2 153 @Portland St. L 67 - 74 26%
 Thu, Feb 5 315 Northern Arizona W 76 - 67 80%
 Sat, Feb 7 185 Northern Colorado W 76 - 75 55%
 Thu, Feb 12 243 @Eastern Washington L 75 - 77 43%
 Sat, Feb 14 183 @Idaho L 70 - 75 33%
 Thu, Feb 19 161 Montana L 75 - 76 49%
 Sat, Feb 21 152 Montana St. L 71 - 72 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 217 Weber St. W 77 - 74 61%
 Mon, Mar 2 290 @Sacramento St. W 79 - 78 53%
Totals 12 - 16 8 - 10 -3 +1 B- C C- -4 C- C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.6 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.3 3.4 1.0 0.1 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 3.3 6.2 2.1 0.2 11.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 3.5 9.0 3.8 0.2 0.0 16.7 5th
6th 0.2 3.3 10.2 5.5 0.4 19.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 3.0 9.0 6.5 0.6 0.0 19.2 7th
8th 0.3 1.9 6.5 5.1 0.7 0.0 14.5 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 3.0 2.5 0.4 0.0 7.2 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.8 10th
Total 0.2 1.9 5.3 12.3 18.0 21.1 18.5 12.8 6.8 2.5 0.6 0.1 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 81.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-5 37.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1
12-6 7.4% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.6% 21.0% 21.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
12-6 2.5% 14.2% 14.2% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.1
11-7 6.8% 12.8% 12.8% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.0 5.9
10-8 12.8% 10.4% 10.4% 15.1 0.1 1.1 0.2 11.5
9-9 18.5% 6.9% 6.9% 15.6 0.5 0.8 17.2
8-10 21.1% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.0 0.9 20.2
7-11 18.0% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.4 17.5
6-12 12.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 12.1
5-13 5.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 5.2
4-14 1.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.7% 5.7% 0.0% 15.3 94.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%