Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.2 #161
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 #174
Pace 72.0 #95
Improvement +2.3 #79

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #150 B+ D D- B- B-
Defense #190 C+ C D C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #142 1.22 #107 +2.1 #104
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #275 0.81 #93 -1.2 #238
Three Pointers 44% #125 1.13 #42 +4.0 #57
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #54 +4.9 #53
Freethrows 17.1 #203 81% #4 13.8 #110
Second Chance 22.2% #352 1.16 #49 0.26 #306
Turnovers 18.8% #318
Total Offense +0.5 #150

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #106 1.25 #286 -3.5 #296
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #79 0.75 #170 -1.2 #274
Three Pointers 35% #331 0.85 #20 +5.9 #10
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #138 +1.2 #139
Freethrows 15.9 #107 73% #215 11.7 #126
Second Chance 30.5% #183 1.08 #240 0.33 #213
Turnovers 14.3% #306
Total Defense -0.6 #190

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #92 -0.4% #128
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.1% #62 -2.1% #147
Possession Length 16.7 #119 16.8 #90
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #188 0.19 #255
Improvement +0.3 #159 +2.0 #64

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% 19.7% 15.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 77.6% 84.4% 60.0%
.500 or above in Conference 95.2% 97.8% 88.2%
Conference Champion 18.5% 22.1% 9.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.4% 0.2% 0.8%
First Round18.2% 19.6% 14.7%
Second Round0.6% 0.6% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Idaho St. (Home) - 72.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 34 - 65 - 9
Quad 411 - 416 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 77 @Stanford L 68 - 91 16% -11  0 - 1 -12 -3 C- C+ F -8 C+ B+ F
 Tue, Nov 11 114 @UNLV W 102 - 93 26% +6  1 - 1 +15 +18 A+ C B+ -4 D+ A F
 Fri, Nov 14 281 Cal Poly W 90 - 82 82% +7  2 - 1 -2 +0 D- C C -3 C+ C D-
 Tue, Nov 18 34 @Texas A&M L 81 - 86 7% -10  2 - 2 +12 +16 A+ F C+ -4 F A+ C
 Sun, Nov 23 211 Lamar L 63 - 68 72% -0  2 - 3 -11 -12 F F F +1 A+ F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 139 Oakland L 87 - 95 56% -4  2 - 4 -10 +1 B A- F -10 F A+ C-
 Wed, Dec 3 147 North Dakota St. L 72 - 81 58% -3  2 - 5 -11 -2 B- D C- -9 A- F D
 Sat, Dec 6 297 @North Dakota W 79 - 75 67% -1  3 - 5 -1 +3 B A- F -4 B F D+
 Sat, Dec 20 13 @Louisville L 54 - 94 3% -17  3 - 6 -19 -14 F F F -3 B F A
 Thu, Jan 1 315 Northern Arizona W 78 - 64 87% +4  4 - 6 1 - 0 +2 +3 A+ F F -1 B F B+
 Sat, Jan 3 185 Northern Colorado W 88 - 79 67% +9  5 - 6 2 - 0 +4 +4 B- F D -0 A+ D F
 Thu, Jan 8 183 @Idaho W 79 - 73 44% +9  6 - 6 3 - 0 +7 +6 A- F F +2 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 243 @Eastern Washington L 65 - 66 55% +2  6 - 7 3 - 1 -3 -3 F F D +1 C+ B- F
 Sat, Jan 17 152 @Montana St. L 67 - 76 36% -0  6 - 8 3 - 2 -5 -5 B+ F F -1 B- B- D+
 Mon, Jan 19 315 @Northern Arizona W 98 - 72 73% +12  7 - 8 4 - 2 +20 +34 A+ A+ A+ -11 F A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 217 Weber St. W 81 - 65 72% +2  8 - 8 5 - 2 +10 +11 A+ B- F -0 F A+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 219 Idaho St. W 78 - 72 72%
 Thu, Jan 29 153 @Portland St. L 72 - 76 37%
 Sat, Jan 31 290 @Sacramento St. W 84 - 80 66%
 Thu, Feb 5 243 Eastern Washington W 83 - 76 75%
 Sat, Feb 7 183 Idaho W 78 - 74 66%
 Sat, Feb 14 152 Montana St. W 75 - 73 58%
 Thu, Feb 19 219 @Idaho St. W 76 - 75 51%
 Sat, Feb 21 217 @Weber St. W 79 - 78 51%
 Thu, Feb 26 290 Sacramento St. W 87 - 77 83%
 Sat, Feb 28 153 Portland St. W 75 - 73 59%
 Mon, Mar 2 185 @Northern Colorado L 78 - 79 45%
Totals 15 - 12 12 - 6 +0 +0 B+ D D- -1 C+ C D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.4 5.5 7.0 3.7 0.8 18.5 1st
2nd 0.3 2.8 9.8 10.1 3.4 0.4 26.7 2nd
3rd 0.2 3.8 11.1 8.8 2.5 0.1 26.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 7.1 5.0 0.9 0.0 14.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.8 2.6 0.3 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 1.5 0.2 3.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.2 1.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.1 3.5 7.6 14.0 19.2 20.9 18.1 10.5 4.1 0.8 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
15-3 91.5% 3.7    3.0 0.8 0.0
14-4 66.7% 7.0    3.9 2.7 0.4 0.0
13-5 30.2% 5.5    1.6 2.8 1.1 0.1
12-6 6.9% 1.4    0.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
11-7 0.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 18.5% 18.5 9.3 6.9 2.1 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.8% 46.2% 46.2% 12.2 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.4
15-3 4.1% 32.7% 32.7% 13.2 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 2.8
14-4 10.5% 29.2% 29.2% 13.6 0.0 0.1 1.2 1.6 0.2 7.4
13-5 18.1% 23.8% 23.8% 13.9 0.0 1.1 2.4 0.7 0.0 13.8
12-6 20.9% 18.9% 18.9% 14.2 0.0 0.5 2.1 1.3 0.0 17.0
11-7 19.2% 15.0% 15.0% 14.8 0.0 0.7 2.0 0.2 16.3
10-8 14.0% 11.3% 11.3% 15.1 0.1 1.3 0.2 12.4
9-9 7.6% 9.3% 9.3% 15.8 0.2 0.5 6.9
8-10 3.5% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 3.3
7-11 1.1% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 1.1
6-12 0.2% 4.9% 4.9% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 14.2 81.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 12.2 8.3 69.4 20.8 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%