Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.2#209
Expected Predictive Rating-4.4#238
Pace73.2#81
Improvement-3.1#338

Offense
Total Offense-0.6#179
First Shot+2.9#90
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#349
Layup/Dunks-0.7#213
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#224
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.5#72
Freethrows+0.8#120
Improvement-2.6#342

Defense
Total Defense-2.6#259
First Shot-1.8#230
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#251
Layups/Dunks-8.3#361
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#273
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.4#11
Freethrows+1.1#102
Improvement-0.5#214
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.0% 9.0% 5.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 32.1% 37.8% 16.7%
.500 or above in Conference 54.5% 61.8% 35.2%
Conference Champion 9.1% 11.2% 3.7%
Last Place in Conference 10.4% 6.6% 20.6%
First Four1.6% 1.5% 1.8%
First Round7.4% 8.5% 4.5%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Arizona (Home) - 72.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 64 - 10
Quad 49 - 613 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 81 @Stanford L 68-91 11%     0 - 1 -13.1 -4.0 -7.7
  Tue, Nov 11 133 @UNLV W 102-93 22%     1 - 1 +13.7 +17.3 -4.8
  Fri, Nov 14 257 Cal Poly W 90-82 69%     2 - 1 -0.4 +0.7 -2.1
  Tue, Nov 18 43 @Texas A&M L 81-86 6%     2 - 2 +9.8 +14.5 -4.6
  Sun, Nov 23 253 Lamar L 63-68 69%     2 - 3 -13.2 -13.6 +0.5
  Tue, Nov 25 137 Oakland L 87-95 43%     2 - 4 -9.3 +1.2 -9.7
  Wed, Dec 3 155 North Dakota St. L 72-81 48%     2 - 5 -11.6 -2.0 -9.6
  Sat, Dec 6 333 @North Dakota W 79-75 66%     3 - 5 -3.4 +4.7 -8.0
  Sat, Dec 20 13 @Louisville L 54-94 2%     3 - 6 -19.1 -14.0 -2.7
  Thu, Jan 1 289 Northern Arizona W 78-71 73%    
  Sat, Jan 3 171 Northern Colorado W 79-78 52%    
  Thu, Jan 8 177 @Idaho L 73-78 32%    
  Sat, Jan 10 258 @Eastern Washington L 81-82 47%    
  Sat, Jan 17 168 @Montana St. L 71-77 30%    
  Mon, Jan 19 289 @Northern Arizona W 75-74 52%    
  Thu, Jan 22 223 Weber St. W 81-77 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 175 Idaho St. W 74-73 54%    
  Thu, Jan 29 173 @Portland St. L 71-76 32%    
  Sat, Jan 31 276 @Sacramento St. W 80-79 50%    
  Thu, Feb 5 258 Eastern Washington W 84-79 68%    
  Sat, Feb 7 177 Idaho W 76-75 53%    
  Sat, Feb 14 168 Montana St. W 74-73 51%    
  Thu, Feb 19 175 @Idaho St. L 71-76 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 223 @Weber St. L 78-80 42%    
  Thu, Feb 26 276 Sacramento St. W 83-77 71%    
  Sat, Feb 28 173 Portland St. W 74-73 53%    
  Mon, Mar 2 171 @Northern Colorado L 76-82 31%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.7 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 9.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.1 4.0 2.1 0.6 0.1 10.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.6 4.7 2.0 0.2 0.0 11.0 3rd
4th 0.2 3.2 5.8 2.2 0.2 11.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 5.9 2.7 0.2 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.9 3.3 0.3 0.0 11.3 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.8 4.1 0.4 10.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.1 3.5 0.8 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.1 2.8 0.7 0.0 8.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 1.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 6.0 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.4 6.0 8.9 10.9 13.5 13.3 12.8 10.6 7.8 5.1 2.9 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
15-3 94.1% 1.3    1.2 0.2
14-4 79.0% 2.3    1.7 0.5 0.0
13-5 54.0% 2.7    1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 20.7% 1.6    0.3 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 4.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.1% 9.1 5.2 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 43.8% 43.8% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.5% 34.9% 34.9% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3
15-3 1.4% 33.9% 33.9% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.9
14-4 2.9% 24.2% 24.2% 14.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 2.2
13-5 5.1% 18.8% 18.8% 14.4 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 4.1
12-6 7.8% 15.6% 15.6% 14.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 6.6
11-7 10.6% 12.7% 12.7% 15.1 0.1 0.9 0.3 9.2
10-8 12.8% 9.1% 9.1% 15.3 0.0 0.8 0.4 11.7
9-9 13.3% 6.8% 6.8% 15.9 0.1 0.8 12.4
8-10 13.5% 3.7% 3.7% 16.0 0.0 0.5 13.0
7-11 10.9% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.3 10.7
6-12 8.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.2 8.8
5-13 6.0% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 6.0
4-14 3.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.3
3-15 1.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.0% 8.0% 0.0% 15.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.2 2.7 92.0 0.0%