Montana
Big Sky
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.7#172
Expected Predictive Rating+4.2#107
Pace67.8#191
Improvement+2.8#76

Offense
Total Offense+1.8#128
First Shot+4.6#64
After Offensive Rebound-2.8#328
Layup/Dunks+4.0#48
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#158
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#244
Freethrows+2.2#57
Improvement+2.4#69

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#243
First Shot-2.4#253
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#183
Layups/Dunks-3.3#298
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#229
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#101
Freethrows-0.8#240
Improvement+0.4#170
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 30.1% 43.5% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.2 14.2 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round30.1% 43.5% 0.0%
Second Round0.9% 1.2% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 21 - 21 - 6
Quad 34 - 35 - 9
Quad 416 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 08, 2024 34   @ Oregon L 48-79 7%     0 - 1 -14.6 -13.2 -3.9
  Nov 13, 2024 6   @ Tennessee L 57-92 2%     0 - 2 -12.0 -1.1 -11.7
  Nov 18, 2024 55   @ Utah St. L 83-95 10%     0 - 3 +1.4 +7.0 -4.8
  Nov 24, 2024 302   Denver W 83-73 83%     1 - 3 -0.9 +0.7 -2.2
  Nov 25, 2024 290   Utah Tech W 69-66 82%     2 - 3 -7.2 -6.4 -0.7
  Nov 27, 2024 113   Cal St. Northridge W 83-75 45%     3 - 3 +8.6 +3.0 +4.9
  Dec 04, 2024 135   South Dakota St. W 71-67 53%     4 - 3 +2.7 -6.2 +8.7
  Dec 07, 2024 132   @ St. Thomas L 81-88 31%     4 - 4 -2.5 +6.0 -8.3
  Dec 16, 2024 103   @ Northern Iowa L 76-104 24%     4 - 5 -21.2 +9.9 -32.2
  Dec 21, 2024 67   @ San Francisco L 67-71 14%     4 - 6 +7.0 +6.8 -0.2
  Jan 02, 2025 295   @ Eastern Washington W 92-81 66%     5 - 6 1 - 0 +6.1 +15.0 -9.1
  Jan 04, 2025 261   @ Idaho W 73-71 58%     6 - 6 2 - 0 -0.8 -3.5 +2.7
  Jan 09, 2025 246   Northern Arizona W 81-76 74%     7 - 6 3 - 0 -2.3 +0.8 -3.3
  Jan 11, 2025 130   Northern Colorado L 57-81 51%     7 - 7 3 - 1 -24.9 -18.2 -6.7
  Jan 16, 2025 284   @ Weber St. W 63-59 64%     8 - 7 4 - 1 -0.4 -1.8 +2.0
  Jan 18, 2025 214   @ Idaho St. L 61-86 48%     8 - 8 4 - 2 -25.2 -8.7 -18.2
  Jan 20, 2025 261   Idaho W 72-67 77%     9 - 8 5 - 2 -3.3 -2.9 +0.0
  Jan 25, 2025 175   Montana St. W 77-70 61%     10 - 8 6 - 2 +3.4 +10.5 -6.3
  Jan 30, 2025 202   Portland St. W 92-78 67%     11 - 8 7 - 2 +8.8 +25.4 -15.8
  Feb 01, 2025 336   Sacramento St. W 87-59 89%     12 - 8 8 - 2 +13.7 +19.8 -2.5
  Feb 06, 2025 130   @ Northern Colorado W 86-78 31%     13 - 8 9 - 2 +12.6 +15.6 -2.9
  Feb 08, 2025 246   @ Northern Arizona W 83-80 55%     14 - 8 10 - 2 +1.2 +18.6 -17.1
  Feb 13, 2025 214   Idaho St. W 81-68 69%     15 - 8 11 - 2 +7.3 +8.4 -0.5
  Feb 15, 2025 284   Weber St. W 65-58 81%     16 - 8 12 - 2 -2.9 -2.8 +1.0
  Feb 22, 2025 175   @ Montana St. W 89-85 40%     17 - 8 13 - 2 +5.9 +19.0 -13.0
  Feb 27, 2025 336   @ Sacramento St. W 60-54 78%     18 - 8 14 - 2 -2.8 -7.0 +5.0
  Mar 01, 2025 202   @ Portland St. L 76-79 OT 46%     18 - 9 14 - 3 -2.6 -0.5 -1.8
  Mar 03, 2025 295   Eastern Washington W 83-72 82%     19 - 9 15 - 3 +0.6 +9.9 -8.7
  Mar 09, 2025 246   Northern Arizona W 74-65 65%     20 - 9 +4.4 -4.0 +8.2
  Mar 11, 2025 261   Idaho W 79-74 68%    
Projected Record 21 - 9 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
Total 100.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 100.0    100.0
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 100.0% 30.1% 30.1% 14.2 0.0 2.1 21.2 6.7 0.0 69.9
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 30.1% 30.1% 0.0% 14.2 0.0 2.1 21.2 6.7 0.0 69.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 30.1% 100.0% 14.2 0.1 7.1 70.3 22.4 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 39.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 30.9%