Montana
Big Sky
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#197
Expected Predictive Rating-5.3#242
Pace74.1#73
Improvement-1.9#308

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#162
First Shot+3.2#96
After Offensive Rebound-3.2#339
Layup/Dunks+0.6#163
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#186
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#152
Freethrows+1.7#91
Improvement-1.4#291

Defense
Total Defense-2.4#248
First Shot-2.6#263
After Offensive Rebounds+0.3#170
Layups/Dunks-8.0#361
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#232
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.9#22
Freethrows-0.2#191
Improvement-0.4#228
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 9.6% 7.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.2
.500 or above 32.7% 38.5% 18.5%
.500 or above in Conference 57.3% 60.8% 48.9%
Conference Champion 9.9% 11.2% 6.6%
Last Place in Conference 9.3% 7.8% 12.9%
First Four1.6% 1.4% 2.2%
First Round8.3% 9.1% 6.2%
Second Round0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Dakota (Away) - 70.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 34 - 74 - 11
Quad 48 - 513 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 84 @Stanford L 68-91 13%     0 - 1 -13.4 -4.0 -7.9
  Tue, Nov 11 131 @UNLV W 102-93 24%     1 - 1 +14.0 +16.3 -3.6
  Fri, Nov 14 243 Cal Poly W 90-82 69%     2 - 1 +0.4 +1.8 -2.4
  Tue, Nov 18 38 @Texas A&M L 81-86 6%     2 - 2 +10.1 +14.3 -4.2
  Sun, Nov 23 195 Lamar L 63-68 61%     2 - 3 -10.4 -11.5 +1.4
  Tue, Nov 25 141 Oakland L 87-95 47%     2 - 4 -9.5 +0.7 -9.4
  Wed, Dec 3 149 North Dakota St. L 72-81 51%     2 - 5 -11.6 -0.9 -10.7
  Sat, Dec 6 340 @North Dakota W 80-74 71%    
  Sat, Dec 20 14 @Louisville L 71-94 2%    
  Thu, Jan 1 263 Northern Arizona W 79-73 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 151 Northern Colorado W 78-77 52%    
  Thu, Jan 8 187 @Idaho L 75-78 38%    
  Sat, Jan 10 251 @Eastern Washington L 80-81 49%    
  Sat, Jan 17 152 @Montana St. L 72-78 31%    
  Mon, Jan 19 263 @Northern Arizona W 77-76 51%    
  Thu, Jan 22 192 Weber St. W 81-78 60%    
  Sat, Jan 24 167 Idaho St. W 73-71 56%    
  Thu, Jan 29 156 @Portland St. L 75-80 31%    
  Sat, Jan 31 274 @Sacramento St. W 81-80 52%    
  Thu, Feb 5 251 Eastern Washington W 84-78 69%    
  Sat, Feb 7 187 Idaho W 78-75 59%    
  Sat, Feb 14 152 Montana St. W 75-74 52%    
  Thu, Feb 19 167 @Idaho St. L 70-74 35%    
  Sat, Feb 21 192 @Weber St. L 78-81 39%    
  Thu, Feb 26 274 Sacramento St. W 84-77 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 156 Portland St. W 78-77 52%    
  Mon, Mar 2 151 @Northern Colorado L 75-81 31%    
Projected Record 12 - 15 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Sky Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 1.4 2.7 2.6 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 9.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 2.9 4.4 2.6 0.9 0.2 11.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 3.3 5.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 11.5 3rd
4th 0.3 3.0 5.6 2.5 0.3 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.5 6.0 2.8 0.3 11.7 5th
6th 0.2 1.9 5.8 3.4 0.3 11.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.6 3.6 0.5 10.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.8 3.0 0.6 0.0 9.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 7.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 1.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 5.3 10th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.5 3.4 5.7 8.2 10.2 12.7 13.2 12.4 11.0 8.4 5.8 3.5 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Sky Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
16-2 100.0% 0.8    0.7 0.0
15-3 92.1% 1.8    1.5 0.2 0.0
14-4 75.0% 2.6    1.7 0.9 0.0 0.0
13-5 47.0% 2.7    1.3 1.1 0.3 0.0
12-6 16.9% 1.4    0.2 0.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
11-7 2.7% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 9.9% 9.9 5.8 2.9 0.9 0.2 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.2% 59.1% 59.1% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.8% 33.8% 33.8% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5
15-3 1.9% 28.6% 28.6% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.4
14-4 3.5% 30.3% 30.3% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 2.5
13-5 5.8% 19.3% 19.3% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 4.7
12-6 8.4% 15.6% 15.6% 14.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 7.1
11-7 11.0% 12.2% 12.2% 15.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 9.7
10-8 12.4% 9.9% 9.9% 15.4 0.0 0.7 0.5 11.2
9-9 13.2% 7.9% 7.9% 15.9 0.1 1.0 12.2
8-10 12.7% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.4 12.2
7-11 10.2% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.1
6-12 8.2% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.1 8.1
5-13 5.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.7
4-14 3.4% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 3.4
3-15 1.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 1.5
2-16 0.8% 0.8
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.2 3.1 2.6 91.1 0.0%