UNLV
Mountain West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +3.4 #114
Expected Predictive Rating +3.1 #120
Pace 74.2 #53
Improvement +3.6 #40

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #117 B- C- C A- B-
Defense #124 B D B D- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #36 1.15 #188 +3.6 #70
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #213 0.93 #23 +0.8 #125
Three Pointers 36% #280 1.06 #127 -1.6 #239
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #99 +2.8 #99
Freethrows 21.8 #12 70% #270 15.3 #35
Second Chance 33.4% #104 0.87 #351 0.29 #236
Turnovers 16.2% #158
Total Offense +2.0 #117

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #72 1.05 #60 -0.1 #179
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #168 0.79 #241 -0.4 #208
Three Pointers 37% #297 0.89 #46 +4.5 #30
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #64 +4.0 #64
Freethrows 21.3 #335 70% #74 15.0 #321
Second Chance 33.2% #289 1.11 #273 0.37 #298
Turnovers 18.4% #72
Total Defense +1.4 #124

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.5% #83 0.6% #218
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 4.0% #111 -8.3% #44
Possession Length 15.9 #52 17.4 #199
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #124 0.13 #60
Improvement -0.3 #193 +3.8 #20

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.1% 3.1% 1.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.6 11.3 11.8
.500 or above 45.6% 64.6% 36.0%
.500 or above in Conference 69.5% 85.4% 61.5%
Conference Champion 1.7% 4.0% 0.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round2.1% 3.0% 1.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: San Diego St. (Home) - 33.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 11 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 32 - 4
Quad 24 - 76 - 10
Quad 34 - 310 - 14
Quad 45 - 315 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 226 Tennessee Martin L 81 - 86 83% +18  0 - 1 -12 -3 D- A- F -8 A+ F B+
 Sat, Nov 8 247 Chattanooga W 101 - 69 85% +11  1 - 1 +24 +27 A+ A+ A- -2 D C B+
 Tue, Nov 11 161 Montana L 93 - 102 74% -6  1 - 2 -12 +6 A F B -17 F F D-
 Sun, Nov 16 92 @Memphis W 92 - 78 30% +11  2 - 2 +23 +16 A+ F A- +5 A+ C- A
 Thu, Nov 20 159 Saint Joseph's W 99 - 85 73% +4  3 - 2 +11 +15 B B- C -6 C- A+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 100 Maryland L 67 - 74 44% +0  3 - 3 -2 -6 D- F C- +4 A- D- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 17 Alabama L 76 - 115 10% -16  3 - 4 -21 -0 B F B+ -17 F F A-
 Thu, Nov 27 115 Rutgers L 65 - 80 51% -3  3 - 5 -12 -5 D+ F A+ -7 A- D+ D+
 Sun, Dec 7 77 @Stanford W 75 - 74 25% -2  4 - 5 +12 +5 B+ F C +6 A+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 13 241 Tennessee St. L 60 - 63 84% +2  4 - 6 -10 -18 F F F +8 B F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 143 Fresno St. W 84 - 72 70% +4  5 - 6 1 - 0 +10 +15 A+ A+ C -4 B F D+
 Sat, Jan 3 340 Air Force W 67 - 39 94% +15  6 - 6 2 - 0 +14 -5 F A- C- +20 A+ B C
 Tue, Jan 6 108 @Wyoming L 66 - 98 36% -20  6 - 7 2 - 1 -25 -6 D D+ C -18 F F B+
 Fri, Jan 9 96 @Colorado St. L 62 - 70 31% -0  6 - 8 2 - 2 +0 -5 D C F +5 A+ F A+
 Tue, Jan 13 66 Boise St. W 89 - 85 OT 43% +0  7 - 8 3 - 2 +9 +9 A- B+ C+ +0 C- A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 17 238 @San Jose St. W 76 - 62 68% +7  8 - 8 4 - 2 +13 +19 A+ F A+ -3 C- B A+
 Tue, Jan 20 39 @Utah St. W 86 - 76 13% -3  9 - 8 5 - 2 +26 +21 A+ A+ A +5 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 46 San Diego St. L 74 - 79 34%
 Tue, Jan 27 51 New Mexico L 77 - 81 34%
 Fri, Jan 30 80 @Nevada L 72 - 79 26%
 Tue, Feb 3 143 @Fresno St. L 75 - 76 49%
 Sat, Feb 7 79 Grand Canyon L 75 - 76 46%
 Tue, Feb 10 238 San Jose St. W 80 - 69 84%
 Fri, Feb 13 66 @Boise St. L 70 - 78 23%
 Wed, Feb 18 96 Colorado St. W 76 - 75 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 340 @Air Force W 77 - 65 86%
 Wed, Feb 25 79 @Grand Canyon L 72 - 79 26%
 Sat, Feb 28 80 Nevada L 75 - 76 46%
 Tue, Mar 3 39 Utah St. L 76 - 82 28%
 Fri, Mar 6 46 @San Diego St. L 71 - 82 16%
Totals 15 - 15 11 - 9 +3 +2 B- C- C +1 B D B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 1.9 0.7 0.0 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.3 1.6 0.1 5.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 5.0 3.4 0.2 9.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 5.8 6.9 0.9 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 6.9 9.6 2.1 0.0 19.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 6.2 9.5 3.2 0.1 19.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 4.5 7.1 2.9 0.2 15.3 8th
9th 0.2 2.1 3.8 1.6 0.1 7.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.1 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.8 3.9 9.7 16.0 20.2 19.5 14.9 8.5 4.2 1.6 0.4 0.1 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 89.5% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
15-5 50.2% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 10.0% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.4% 16.3% 12.8% 3.5% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 4.0%
15-5 1.6% 8.3% 6.7% 1.6% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 1.7%
14-6 4.2% 7.5% 7.3% 0.2% 11.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 3.9 0.3%
13-7 8.5% 4.6% 4.6% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 8.1 0.1%
12-8 14.9% 2.9% 2.9% 11.3 0.3 0.1 14.5
11-9 19.5% 2.0% 2.0% 11.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 19.1
10-10 20.2% 1.2% 1.2% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 20.0
9-11 16.0% 0.5% 0.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.9
8-12 9.7% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 9.7
7-13 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.9
6-14 0.8% 0.8
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.1% 11.6 97.9 0.1%