UNLV
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#101
Expected Predictive Rating+4.0#109
Pace64.0#297
Improvement-0.8#223

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#105
First Shot+1.9#117
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#135
Layup/Dunks+0.1#180
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#146
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#179
Freethrows+1.3#98
Improvement-1.6#280

Defense
Total Defense+2.0#116
First Shot+3.4#82
After Offensive Rebounds-1.4#295
Layups/Dunks+2.9#77
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#137
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#251
Freethrows+1.1#102
Improvement+0.8#145
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.5% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.8 12.5
.500 or above 60.8% 78.9% 48.8%
.500 or above in Conference 55.8% 75.4% 42.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.5% 3.4% 1.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Boise St. (Home) - 39.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 61 - 8
Quad 23 - 64 - 14
Quad 33 - 27 - 15
Quad 410 - 117 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 308   Alabama St. W 93-79 92%     1 - 0 +3.0 +14.7 -11.7
  Nov 09, 2024 41   Memphis L 74-80 33%     1 - 1 +3.2 +5.6 -2.3
  Nov 14, 2024 212   Nebraska Omaha W 80-69 82%     2 - 1 +5.8 -0.8 +6.2
  Nov 20, 2024 217   Pepperdine W 80-59 83%     3 - 1 +15.4 +11.9 +5.3
  Nov 23, 2024 166   New Mexico St. W 72-65 75%     4 - 1 +4.5 +4.2 +0.7
  Nov 28, 2024 35   Mississippi St. L 58-80 21%     4 - 2 -8.8 -6.3 -3.8
  Nov 29, 2024 56   Northwestern L 61-66 31%     4 - 3 +4.8 +1.3 +2.9
  Dec 07, 2024 28   @ Creighton L 65-83 13%     4 - 4 -1.2 +4.6 -6.7
  Dec 14, 2024 302   Pacific W 72-65 91%     5 - 4 -3.5 -2.5 -0.6
  Dec 17, 2024 80   @ Dayton L 65-66 31%     5 - 5 +8.8 +6.2 +2.5
  Dec 21, 2024 163   UC Riverside W 66-53 75%     6 - 5 +10.7 -0.7 +12.9
  Dec 28, 2024 259   Fresno St. W 87-77 88%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +1.9 +12.8 -10.8
  Dec 31, 2024 277   @ Air Force W 77-58 79%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +15.1 +2.9 +12.2
  Jan 04, 2025 146   San Jose St. W 79-73 72%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +4.6 +11.8 -6.6
  Jan 07, 2025 51   @ Boise St. L 59-81 22%     9 - 6 3 - 1 -9.3 -4.5 -6.4
  Jan 11, 2025 77   @ Colorado St. L 62-84 30%     9 - 7 3 - 2 -12.1 +0.0 -13.8
  Jan 15, 2025 49   Utah St. W 65-62 38%     10 - 7 4 - 2 +10.7 +4.3 +6.9
  Jan 18, 2025 52   @ San Diego St. W 76-68 22%     11 - 7 5 - 2 +20.7 +10.4 +10.0
  Jan 21, 2025 167   Wyoming L 61-63 75%     11 - 8 5 - 3 -4.5 -2.2 -2.6
  Jan 25, 2025 40   New Mexico L 73-75 32%     11 - 9 5 - 4 +7.4 +9.6 -2.3
  Jan 29, 2025 49   @ Utah St. L 71-76 22%     11 - 10 5 - 5 +7.7 +2.8 +4.8
  Feb 01, 2025 88   @ Nevada L 65-71 34%     11 - 11 5 - 6 +3.0 -1.6 +4.4
  Feb 04, 2025 51   Boise St. L 69-72 40%    
  Feb 08, 2025 167   @ Wyoming W 67-65 56%    
  Feb 11, 2025 277   Air Force W 73-59 91%    
  Feb 15, 2025 259   @ Fresno St. W 78-70 74%    
  Feb 22, 2025 77   Colorado St. L 68-69 50%    
  Feb 25, 2025 146   @ San Jose St. W 70-69 51%    
  Feb 28, 2025 88   Nevada W 67-66 54%    
  Mar 04, 2025 52   San Diego St. L 64-67 41%    
  Mar 07, 2025 40   @ New Mexico L 69-79 17%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.7 0.1 1.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.3 1.6 0.0 4.4 4th
5th 0.0 1.4 6.0 5.1 0.7 13.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.8 11.0 19.1 11.6 2.0 0.1 45.6 6th
7th 1.1 7.3 11.2 4.0 0.3 23.9 7th
8th 0.3 3.0 4.5 1.3 0.1 9.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.2 5.5 13.9 23.5 24.6 18.3 9.6 3.1 0.2 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.0%
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.2% 17.4% 13.0% 4.3% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 5.0%
13-7 3.1% 6.8% 6.8% 11.3 0.1 0.1 2.9
12-8 9.6% 4.7% 4.7% 11.5 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.2
11-9 18.3% 3.3% 3.3% 11.8 0.1 0.5 0.0 17.7
10-10 24.6% 2.6% 2.6% 12.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 23.9
9-11 23.5% 1.7% 1.7% 12.8 0.2 0.2 0.1 23.2
8-12 13.9% 1.2% 1.2% 14.3 0.1 0.1 13.7
7-13 5.5% 0.5% 0.5% 15.0 0.0 5.4
6-14 1.2% 1.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 12.1 0.0 0.6 1.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 97.5 0.0%