UNLV
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.0#108
Expected Predictive Rating+1.8#139
Pace64.0#311
Improvement-0.8#238

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#102
First Shot+1.7#123
After Offensive Rebound+1.0#131
Layup/Dunks-0.2#191
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.8#219
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#181
Freethrows+2.8#46
Improvement-1.2#282

Defense
Total Defense+1.3#132
First Shot+1.9#113
After Offensive Rebounds-0.7#239
Layups/Dunks+1.7#112
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#225
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#208
Freethrows+0.9#121
Improvement+0.4#152
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.3% 3.6% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.9 11.8 12.4
.500 or above 55.3% 61.2% 35.9%
.500 or above in Conference 56.0% 58.7% 47.2%
Conference Champion 2.4% 2.7% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 1.2% 1.9%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round3.2% 3.5% 2.2%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Home) - 76.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 8
Quad 22 - 53 - 13
Quad 34 - 27 - 15
Quad 410 - 117 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 284   Alabama St. W 93-79 89%     1 - 0 +4.3 +15.0 -10.7
  Nov 09, 2024 37   Memphis L 74-80 31%     1 - 1 +3.2 +3.2 +0.0
  Nov 14, 2024 299   Nebraska Omaha W 80-69 90%     2 - 1 +0.9 -1.6 +2.0
  Nov 20, 2024 237   Pepperdine W 80-59 85%     3 - 1 +13.9 +10.9 +4.9
  Nov 23, 2024 200   New Mexico St. W 72-65 80%     4 - 1 +2.2 +2.3 +0.4
  Nov 28, 2024 28   Mississippi St. L 58-80 19%     4 - 2 -8.7 -6.5 -3.5
  Nov 29, 2024 61   Northwestern L 61-66 31%     4 - 3 +4.1 +2.9 +0.6
  Dec 07, 2024 50   @ Creighton L 65-83 19%     4 - 4 -4.7 +2.8 -8.4
  Dec 14, 2024 276   Pacific W 72-65 89%     5 - 4 -2.3 +0.0 -2.0
  Dec 17, 2024 41   @ Dayton L 65-66 18%     5 - 5 +12.9 +8.0 +4.7
  Dec 21, 2024 170   UC Riverside W 74-66 77%    
  Dec 28, 2024 257   Fresno St. W 78-66 88%    
  Dec 31, 2024 272   @ Air Force W 68-61 74%    
  Jan 04, 2025 184   San Jose St. W 74-66 78%    
  Jan 07, 2025 57   @ Boise St. L 66-74 22%    
  Jan 11, 2025 105   @ Colorado St. L 67-70 38%    
  Jan 15, 2025 54   Utah St. L 71-74 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 43   @ San Diego St. L 63-73 19%    
  Jan 21, 2025 163   Wyoming W 72-65 75%    
  Jan 25, 2025 70   New Mexico L 76-77 46%    
  Jan 29, 2025 54   @ Utah St. L 68-77 21%    
  Feb 01, 2025 52   @ Nevada L 64-73 21%    
  Feb 04, 2025 57   Boise St. L 69-71 41%    
  Feb 08, 2025 163   @ Wyoming W 69-68 55%    
  Feb 11, 2025 272   Air Force W 71-58 87%    
  Feb 15, 2025 257   @ Fresno St. W 75-69 71%    
  Feb 22, 2025 105   Colorado St. W 70-67 59%    
  Feb 25, 2025 184   @ San Jose St. W 71-69 58%    
  Feb 28, 2025 52   Nevada L 67-70 39%    
  Mar 04, 2025 43   San Diego St. L 66-70 36%    
  Mar 07, 2025 70   @ New Mexico L 73-80 26%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 1.8 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.0 2.2 0.5 0.0 6.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.2 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.1 4.5 0.9 0.0 14.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.6 4.9 7.5 4.9 1.1 0.0 20.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.8 6.2 6.9 3.6 0.7 0.0 20.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 2.4 4.4 3.5 1.2 0.2 0.0 12.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.2 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.6 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.3 8.7 11.6 13.5 14.3 13.3 10.9 8.0 5.0 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 98.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
17-3 85.1% 0.4    0.3 0.1 0.0
16-4 60.8% 0.8    0.4 0.4 0.0
15-5 27.9% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.4% 2.4 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 56.0% 30.7% 25.3% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 36.5%
17-3 0.4% 30.6% 23.0% 7.7% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 9.9%
16-4 1.3% 17.3% 15.3% 2.0% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 1.1 2.3%
15-5 2.7% 12.4% 12.1% 0.3% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 2.3 0.3%
14-6 5.0% 8.4% 8.2% 0.2% 11.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.6 0.3%
13-7 8.0% 5.4% 5.3% 0.1% 11.7 0.2 0.3 0.0 7.6 0.1%
12-8 10.9% 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 11.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 10.4 0.0%
11-9 13.3% 3.6% 3.6% 12.1 0.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 12.8
10-10 14.3% 2.1% 2.1% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 14.0
9-11 13.5% 1.3% 1.3% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.3
8-12 11.6% 1.1% 1.1% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.4
7-13 8.7% 0.6% 0.6% 15.4 0.0 0.0 8.7
6-14 5.3% 0.3% 0.3% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.3
5-15 2.9% 2.9
4-16 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.3% 3.1% 0.1% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 1.5 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0 96.7 0.1%