UNLV
Mountain West
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.6#92
Expected Predictive Rating+6.0#86
Pace64.6#280
Improvement+1.2#143

Offense
Total Offense+0.7#155
First Shot+0.3#162
After Offensive Rebound+0.4#163
Layup/Dunks-0.5#201
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#159
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#196
Freethrows+0.9#115
Improvement-3.7#330

Defense
Total Defense+4.9#59
First Shot+5.7#37
After Offensive Rebounds-0.8#257
Layups/Dunks+3.6#57
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#101
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#213
Freethrows+1.5#79
Improvement+4.9#13
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.4% 2.6% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.7 11.7 n/a
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round2.4% 2.6% 0.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b1 - 61 - 8
Quad 22 - 64 - 14
Quad 35 - 09 - 14
Quad 410 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 288   Alabama St. W 93-79 92%     1 - 0 +3.9 +16.4 -12.5
  Nov 09, 2024 50   Memphis L 74-80 40%     1 - 1 +2.3 +5.6 -3.2
  Nov 14, 2024 149   Nebraska Omaha W 80-69 77%     2 - 1 +9.0 -0.3 +8.7
  Nov 20, 2024 217   Pepperdine W 80-59 85%     3 - 1 +15.2 +9.9 +7.1
  Nov 23, 2024 125   New Mexico St. W 72-65 73%     4 - 1 +6.3 +6.8 +0.0
  Nov 28, 2024 33   Mississippi St. L 58-80 22%     4 - 2 -8.4 -6.4 -3.2
  Nov 29, 2024 51   Northwestern L 61-66 30%     4 - 3 +5.9 +1.7 +3.5
  Dec 07, 2024 32   @ Creighton L 65-83 15%     4 - 4 -1.4 +3.6 -5.9
  Dec 14, 2024 292   Pacific W 72-65 92%     5 - 4 -3.3 -2.2 -0.8
  Dec 17, 2024 74   @ Dayton L 65-66 33%     5 - 5 +9.2 +6.5 +2.6
  Dec 21, 2024 142   UC Riverside W 66-53 76%     6 - 5 +11.3 -1.5 +14.3
  Dec 28, 2024 258   Fresno St. W 87-77 89%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +2.0 +13.2 -11.1
  Dec 31, 2024 300   @ Air Force W 77-58 84%     8 - 5 2 - 0 +13.8 +2.9 +11.0
  Jan 04, 2025 156   San Jose St. W 79-73 78%     9 - 5 3 - 0 +3.5 +11.6 -7.5
  Jan 07, 2025 52   @ Boise St. L 59-81 22%     9 - 6 3 - 1 -8.4 -3.7 -6.3
  Jan 11, 2025 53   @ Colorado St. L 62-84 22%     9 - 7 3 - 2 -8.5 +0.0 -10.3
  Jan 15, 2025 55   Utah St. W 65-62 41%     10 - 7 4 - 2 +10.9 +1.6 +9.7
  Jan 18, 2025 54   @ San Diego St. W 76-68 23%     11 - 7 5 - 2 +21.5 +10.2 +11.0
  Jan 21, 2025 176   Wyoming L 61-63 81%     11 - 8 5 - 3 -5.7 -2.7 -3.3
  Jan 25, 2025 41   New Mexico L 73-75 34%     11 - 9 5 - 4 +7.8 +10.2 -2.4
  Jan 29, 2025 55   @ Utah St. L 71-76 23%     11 - 10 5 - 5 +8.4 +0.5 +7.9
  Feb 01, 2025 83   @ Nevada L 65-71 35%     11 - 11 5 - 6 +3.4 -1.5 +4.7
  Feb 04, 2025 52   Boise St. L 62-71 40%     11 - 12 5 - 7 -0.9 -6.0 +4.8
  Feb 08, 2025 176   @ Wyoming W 68-57 64%     12 - 12 6 - 7 +12.9 +4.2 +9.7
  Feb 11, 2025 300   Air Force W 77-52 93%     13 - 12 7 - 7 +14.3 +10.6 +7.2
  Feb 15, 2025 258   @ Fresno St. W 52-51 78%     14 - 12 8 - 7 -1.5 -16.2 +14.7
  Feb 22, 2025 53   Colorado St. L 53-61 41%     14 - 13 8 - 8 +0.0 -11.7 +11.0
  Feb 25, 2025 156   @ San Jose St. W 77-71 60%     15 - 13 9 - 8 +9.0 +2.4 +6.5
  Feb 28, 2025 83   Nevada W 68-55 56%     16 - 13 10 - 8 +16.9 +8.5 +10.6
  Mar 04, 2025 54   San Diego St. W 74-67 41%     17 - 13 11 - 8 +15.0 +9.9 +5.2
  Mar 07, 2025 41   @ New Mexico L 67-81 18%     17 - 14 11 - 9 +1.4 +3.1 -1.6
  Mar 12, 2025 300   Air Force W 72-58 89%    
Projected Record 18 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Mountain West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 100.0 100.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 100.0 Total



Mountain West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 100.0% 2.4% 2.4% 11.7 0.0 0.6 1.8 97.6
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 11.7 0.0 0.6 1.8 97.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.4% 100.0% 11.7 0.4 25.4 74.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 6.9%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 18.6%
Lose Out 8.9%