Memphis
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+12.2#37
Expected Predictive Rating+20.0#9
Pace75.3#42
Improvement-2.4#318

Offense
Total Offense+7.7#27
First Shot+6.0#41
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#90
Layup/Dunks+0.5#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#136
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#91
Freethrows+2.2#65
Improvement-0.6#238

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#65
First Shot+4.5#54
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#185
Layups/Dunks+4.3#47
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#23
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#296
Freethrows+0.8#130
Improvement-1.8#317
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.8% 1.2% 0.2%
Top 2 Seed 2.7% 4.1% 1.0%
Top 4 Seed 12.6% 17.2% 6.4%
Top 6 Seed 28.1% 35.9% 17.7%
NCAA Tourney Bid 84.2% 89.3% 77.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 69.9% 78.7% 59.3%
Average Seed 7.6 7.1 8.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.7% 99.8% 99.5%
Conference Champion 67.9% 71.4% 63.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four5.7% 4.6% 7.1%
First Round81.1% 86.9% 73.5%
Second Round45.8% 51.8% 37.8%
Sweet Sixteen16.9% 20.2% 12.6%
Elite Eight6.4% 7.9% 4.5%
Final Four2.3% 2.8% 1.5%
Championship Game0.8% 1.0% 0.5%
National Champion0.3% 0.3% 0.2%

Next Game: Mississippi St. (Home) - 57.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 2
Quad 26 - 211 - 4
Quad 311 - 322 - 6
Quad 45 - 027 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 55   Missouri W 83-75 70%     1 - 0 +14.9 +7.1 +7.3
  Nov 09, 2024 108   @ UNLV W 80-74 69%     2 - 0 +13.0 +9.0 +4.0
  Nov 15, 2024 149   Ohio W 94-70 91%     3 - 0 +21.4 +10.8 +8.7
  Nov 21, 2024 59   San Francisco W 68-64 61%     4 - 0 +13.3 +2.0 +11.3
  Nov 25, 2024 11   Connecticut W 99-97 OT 32%     5 - 0 +19.0 +24.3 -5.4
  Nov 26, 2024 15   Michigan St. W 71-63 38%     6 - 0 +23.2 +13.7 +10.4
  Nov 27, 2024 1   Auburn L 76-90 16%     6 - 1 +8.7 +13.9 -5.8
  Dec 04, 2024 101   Louisiana Tech W 81-71 83%     7 - 1 +12.1 +10.9 +1.4
  Dec 08, 2024 109   Arkansas St. L 72-85 85%     7 - 2 -12.2 -9.0 -1.3
  Dec 14, 2024 34   @ Clemson W 87-82 OT 38%     8 - 2 +20.3 +16.3 +3.6
  Dec 18, 2024 91   @ Virginia W 64-62 61%     9 - 2 +11.2 +5.7 +5.6
  Dec 21, 2024 28   Mississippi St. W 79-77 57%    
  Dec 28, 2024 27   Mississippi W 79-77 57%    
  Jan 02, 2025 85   @ Florida Atlantic W 86-83 60%    
  Jan 05, 2025 72   North Texas W 71-63 76%    
  Jan 11, 2025 162   East Carolina W 81-66 92%    
  Jan 16, 2025 119   @ Temple W 80-73 73%    
  Jan 19, 2025 191   @ Charlotte W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 23, 2025 110   Wichita St. W 85-73 85%    
  Jan 26, 2025 130   UAB W 90-77 89%    
  Jan 30, 2025 202   @ Tulane W 83-72 85%    
  Feb 02, 2025 196   @ Rice W 80-69 84%    
  Feb 05, 2025 251   Tulsa W 88-68 97%    
  Feb 09, 2025 119   Temple W 83-70 87%    
  Feb 13, 2025 179   @ South Florida W 83-73 82%    
  Feb 16, 2025 110   @ Wichita St. W 82-76 69%    
  Feb 23, 2025 85   Florida Atlantic W 89-80 78%    
  Feb 26, 2025 196   Rice W 83-66 93%    
  Mar 02, 2025 130   @ UAB W 87-80 74%    
  Mar 04, 2025 228   @ Texas San Antonio W 89-76 87%    
  Mar 07, 2025 179   South Florida W 86-70 93%    
Projected Record 25 - 6 15 - 3




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.3 8.1 16.5 19.3 15.2 6.4 67.9 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 5.5 6.7 3.8 0.9 0.0 18.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.9 2.8 2.5 0.7 0.1 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 3.1 6.2 10.6 15.6 20.3 20.1 15.3 6.4 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 6.4    6.4
17-1 99.8% 15.2    14.8 0.4
16-2 95.7% 19.3    16.8 2.4 0.0
15-3 81.0% 16.5    11.6 4.5 0.3
14-4 52.2% 8.1    3.9 3.3 0.8 0.1
13-5 21.2% 2.3    0.5 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 67.9% 67.9 54.1 11.8 1.8 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 6.4% 99.7% 65.9% 33.8% 3.5 0.6 1.2 1.6 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.3%
17-1 15.3% 98.7% 60.0% 38.7% 5.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 3.2 3.2 2.7 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 96.7%
16-2 20.1% 96.1% 53.4% 42.7% 7.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.5 3.9 4.0 3.4 2.6 1.2 0.2 0.8 91.7%
15-3 20.3% 90.6% 48.1% 42.4% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.7 3.9 4.9 3.7 1.2 0.0 1.9 81.8%
14-4 15.6% 81.0% 42.7% 38.3% 9.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.7 3.4 4.3 2.4 0.1 3.0 66.8%
13-5 10.6% 68.5% 35.8% 32.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.9 2.7 0.1 3.4 51.0%
12-6 6.2% 53.7% 31.0% 22.7% 10.6 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.2 2.9 32.9%
11-7 3.1% 40.9% 26.6% 14.3% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.1 1.8 19.5%
10-8 1.4% 24.3% 17.2% 7.1% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.1 8.5%
9-9 0.7% 18.3% 14.9% 3.4% 11.3 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5 3.9%
8-10 0.2% 18.6% 16.8% 1.8% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1%
7-11 0.1% 13.3% 13.3% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 84.2% 47.5% 36.7% 7.6 0.8 2.0 3.9 6.0 7.0 8.6 9.1 10.1 12.9 13.7 9.7 0.6 15.8 69.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.9% 100.0% 2.4 20.0 36.1 28.5 13.7 1.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 100.0% 3.4 4.7 14.6 37.8 28.8 10.7 2.6 0.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 99.2% 3.6 4.1 17.9 23.6 28.5 18.7 5.7 0.8