Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.6#75
Expected Predictive Rating+2.2#149
Pace73.8#80
Improvement+1.8#55

Offense
Total Offense+2.8#102
First Shot+2.8#106
After Offensive Rebound+0.0#177
Layup/Dunks+4.2#54
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#296
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#194
Freethrows+1.3#115
Improvement+0.9#110

Defense
Total Defense+4.8#51
First Shot+3.0#80
After Offensive Rebounds+1.8#80
Layups/Dunks+1.5#118
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#50
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#205
Freethrows+0.5#146
Improvement+0.9#103
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.3% 30.1% 22.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.7% 3.2% 0.8%
Average Seed 11.5 11.1 11.8
.500 or above 80.4% 90.2% 74.5%
.500 or above in Conference 92.8% 95.5% 91.2%
Conference Champion 32.4% 38.1% 29.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four0.9% 1.3% 0.6%
First Round24.7% 29.4% 22.0%
Second Round6.7% 9.1% 5.3%
Sweet Sixteen1.6% 2.3% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.2%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Baylor (Home) - 37.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b1 - 31 - 6
Quad 23 - 44 - 10
Quad 38 - 313 - 13
Quad 47 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 99 San Francisco W 76-70 70%     1 - 0 +8.0 -0.2 +7.8
  Tue, Nov 11 58 @Mississippi L 77-83 32%     1 - 1 +6.4 +11.8 -5.7
  Sun, Nov 16 131 UNLV L 78-92 79%     1 - 2 -15.0 -6.6 -6.7
  Thu, Nov 20 2 Purdue L 71-80 9%     1 - 3 +13.2 +8.3 +4.6
  Fri, Nov 21 53 Wake Forest L 68-69 41%     1 - 4 +9.0 +3.5 +5.5
  Wed, Nov 26 142 Southern Illinois W 74-58 81%     2 - 4 +14.3 -0.1 +14.4
  Wed, Dec 3 216 New Orleans W 86-70 90%     3 - 4 +9.7 +9.7 -0.1
  Sat, Dec 6 28 Baylor L 78-81 38%    
  Sat, Dec 13 14 @Louisville L 73-86 11%    
  Wed, Dec 17 12 Vanderbilt L 76-84 23%    
  Sat, Dec 20 81 @Mississippi St. L 75-78 39%    
  Mon, Dec 22 268 Alabama St. W 84-67 94%    
  Wed, Dec 31 145 North Texas W 74-64 81%    
  Sat, Jan 3 217 @Rice W 76-68 76%    
  Sun, Jan 11 126 @Florida Atlantic W 77-75 57%    
  Wed, Jan 14 157 Temple W 84-73 83%    
  Sun, Jan 18 269 Texas San Antonio W 84-67 93%    
  Wed, Jan 21 91 @Tulsa L 74-75 46%    
  Sat, Jan 24 97 @Wichita St. L 73-74 48%    
  Thu, Jan 29 126 Florida Atlantic W 80-72 76%    
  Sun, Feb 1 172 Tulane W 83-71 86%    
  Thu, Feb 5 112 @UAB W 77-76 53%    
  Sun, Feb 8 186 Charlotte W 77-65 87%    
  Thu, Feb 12 145 @North Texas W 71-67 63%    
  Sat, Feb 14 51 @Utah St. L 73-79 30%    
  Thu, Feb 19 79 @South Florida L 78-81 41%    
  Sun, Feb 22 112 UAB W 80-73 72%    
  Thu, Feb 26 97 Wichita St. W 76-70 68%    
  Sun, Mar 1 245 @East Carolina W 79-70 79%    
  Thu, Mar 5 79 South Florida W 81-78 61%    
  Sun, Mar 8 172 @Tulane W 80-74 69%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.7 8.2 9.4 6.6 3.2 0.6 32.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 4.2 7.6 5.6 1.7 0.2 19.9 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.4 6.3 3.3 0.6 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.1 1.9 5.1 2.7 0.3 10.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.8 3.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 7.7 5th
6th 0.3 2.1 2.6 0.4 0.0 5.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 2.1 0.5 0.0 3.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.6 0.7 0.1 3.0 8th
9th 0.2 0.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 2.2 3.6 5.9 9.3 12.4 14.1 15.0 14.4 11.2 6.8 3.2 0.6 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
17-1 100.0% 3.2    3.1 0.0
16-2 97.5% 6.6    6.0 0.6 0.0
15-3 84.6% 9.4    7.1 2.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 56.8% 8.2    4.2 3.2 0.8 0.0
13-5 24.5% 3.7    0.9 1.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.9% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 32.4% 32.4 22.0 7.8 2.2 0.4 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.6% 71.0% 53.4% 17.6% 8.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 37.8%
17-1 3.2% 59.1% 48.1% 11.0% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.1 1.3 21.2%
16-2 6.8% 50.5% 44.7% 5.8% 10.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 2.0 0.4 0.0 3.4 10.4%
15-3 11.2% 38.5% 36.4% 2.1% 11.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.5 1.3 0.1 6.9 3.3%
14-4 14.4% 31.7% 30.7% 1.0% 11.5 0.2 2.2 1.9 0.2 9.8 1.4%
13-5 15.0% 26.9% 26.5% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 0.1 1.4 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.9 0.5%
12-6 14.1% 21.1% 21.1% 12.0 0.0 0.7 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 11.1
11-7 12.4% 14.8% 14.8% 12.5 0.2 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 10.5
10-8 9.3% 11.2% 11.2% 12.9 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 8.2
9-9 5.9% 8.3% 8.3% 14.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 5.4
8-10 3.6% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 3.5
7-11 2.2% 3.2% 3.2% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.1
6-12 0.9% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.9
5-13 0.4% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.3% 24.0% 1.3% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.8 9.8 9.1 2.1 0.6 0.4 0.2 74.8 1.7%