Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +6.4 86
Expected Predictive Rating +4.2 101
Pace 74.1 50
Improvement -0.7 213

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #182 C- A- D- C- C-
Defense B+ #30 B+ B- A- C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% 153 60% 126 +1.3 131
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% 127 36% 255 +0.3 160
Three Pointers 38% 254 33% 232 -2.4 273
1st FG Attempt 1.00 200 -0.8 200
Second Chance 36.8% 32 1.15 47 0.42 26
Turnovers 19.6% 327
Freethrows 0.29 223 71% 216 0.21 221
Total Offense -0.8 182

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 322 58% 182 +3.5 69
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 167 32% 19 +1.0 112
Three Pointers 47% 38 29% 20 +0.7 155
1st FG Attempt 0.91 41 +5.2 41
Second Chance 31.6% 233 0.90 32 0.28 96
Turnovers 21.0% 18
Freethrows 0.32 235 71% 90 0.23 216
Total Defense +7.1 30

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.2 224 -0.5 93
Shot Type Accuracy -0.5 191 -4.7 37
Possession Length 15.9 53 17.8 266
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 35 0.20 270
Improvement -2.2 #300 +1.5 #105

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 15% 17% 13%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 12.1 12.0 12.3
.500 or above 80% 90% 67%
.500 or above in Conference 98% 100% 95%
Conference Champion 14% 20% 6%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round15% 17% 13%
Second Round2% 3% 2%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: North Texas (Away) - 58.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 6
Quad 23 - 63 - 12
Quad 38 - 312 - 14
Quad 46 - 118 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 107 San Francisco W 76 - 70 69% +9  97% 1 - 0 B- +7 D+ -4 C- A+ F A +11 C+ B A
 Tue, Nov 11 65 @Mississippi L 77 - 83 31% -5  11% 1 - 1 B- +5 A- +11 A+ F A+ D+ -5 F+ C+ D
 Sun, Nov 16 124 UNLV L 78 - 92 75% -11  4% 1 - 2 F+ -15 F+ -9 F A- F D+ -4 F+ A C+
 Thu, Nov 20 9 Purdue L 71 - 80 10% -1  39% 1 - 3 B+ +12 B +6 C- A+ C B +5 C+ A+ B+
 Fri, Nov 21 63 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 42% +5  82% 1 - 4 B- +7 C- -1 B+ B- F A- +9 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 127 Southern Illinois W 74 - 58 76% +11  98% 2 - 4 A- +15 C+ +2 C A+ D A+ +13 A+ C+ B-
 Wed, Dec 3 225 New Orleans W 86 - 70 88% +16  97% 3 - 4 B +10 B- +5 A+ F F+ B +5 B- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 42 Baylor W 78 - 71 38% +2  71% 4 - 4 A- +17 B- +4 D- A+ A- A+ +13 A+ A- A-
 Sat, Dec 13 11 @Louisville L 73 - 99 7% -17  5% 4 - 5 C- -3 B- +5 D A+ B D- -8 F F B+
 Wed, Dec 17 14 Vanderbilt L 70 - 77 OT 19% -3  14% 4 - 6 B +9 F -12 D D- F+ A+ +22 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 79 @Mississippi St. L 66 - 71 36% -4  7% 4 - 7 B- +5 D+ -3 D- A+ F A- +8 B B+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 316 Alabama St. W 88 - 67 95% +13  98% 5 - 7 B +8 B- +4 A C+ F B- +3 A- F B+
 Wed, Dec 31 144 North Texas W 57 - 48 78% +8  96% 6 - 7 1 - 0 B- +7 F -11 B B- F A+ +19 A+ B- A+
 Sat, Jan 3 220 @Rice W 76 - 70 73% -1  47% 7 - 7 2 - 0 B- +6 B- +4 F A+ F C+ +2 B D+ A-
 Sun, Jan 11 114 @Florida Atlantic L 78 - 89 51% -8  3% 7 - 8 2 - 1 D+ -5 D+ -2 B D+ D+ C -1 C F C+
 Wed, Jan 14 148 Temple W 55 - 53 79% +4  75% 8 - 8 3 - 1 C -0 F -19 F C D+ A+ +18 A+ B- A+
 Sun, Jan 18 350 Texas San Antonio W 95 - 69 97% +12  98% 9 - 8 4 - 1 B +10 B+ +9 A+ D+ C- C+ +1 D+ C A+
 Wed, Jan 21 70 @Tulsa L 66 - 83 33% -3  21% 9 - 9 4 - 2 D+ -6 D+ -4 F+ A- F D+ -4 A+ D D-
 Sat, Jan 24 96 @Wichita St. L 59 - 74 42% -13  5% 9 - 10 4 - 3 D+ -7 F -13 F A- F B+ +6 C- B+ B+
 Thu, Jan 29 114 Florida Atlantic W 92 - 65 72% +12  95% 10 - 10 5 - 3 A+ +27 B+ +8 B+ A+ C A+ +17 A+ B+ A+
 Sun, Feb 1 174 Tulane L 76 - 78 83% -5  5% 10 - 11 5 - 4 D+ -6 C- -0 F B- B D -6 F B- A-
 Thu, Feb 5 118 @UAB W 90 - 80 52% +8  87% 11 - 11 6 - 4 A- +16 B +7 A- B D- B+ +8 B+ C- A
 Sun, Feb 8 168 Charlotte W 77 - 54 82% +15  99% 12 - 11 7 - 4 A +19 C- -2 F+ A+ C+ A+ +22 A+ B- A-
 Thu, Feb 12 144 @North Texas W 66 - 64 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 35 @Utah St. L 69 - 80 15%
 Thu, Feb 19 62 @South Florida L 76 - 81 30%
 Sun, Feb 22 118 UAB W 78 - 72 73%
 Thu, Feb 26 96 Wichita St. W 72 - 68 64%
 Sun, Mar 1 252 @East Carolina W 76 - 68 78%
 Thu, Mar 5 62 South Florida W 79 - 78 53%
 Sun, Mar 8 174 @Tulane W 74 - 70 66%
Totals 16 - 15 11 - 7 +6 C -1 C- A- D- B+ +7 B+ B- A-



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ D+ C- C 39% 23% 38% C- C- B+ B A- D- C- C- C- B+ C B+ A- B+ 32% 21% 47% B- B+ C- B+ B- A- C- B- C-
1.08 60% 36% 33% -1 0 1.00 37% 1.1 .42 20% .29 71% .21 0.98 58% 32% 29% -5 0 0.91 32% 0.9 .28 21% .32 71% .21
Nov
8		 San Francisco D+ D+ F B C- 33% 26% 41% D C- A+ A+ A+ F A+ F B A F A+ C- C+ 23% 17% 60% B+ C+ A- C B A F A D
1.03 53% 25% 37% -3 -1 0.93 40% 1.3 .52 19% .43 54% .23 0.94 73% 13% 36% +1 -1 1.02 27% 1.1 .30 20% .42 64% .27
Nov
11		 Mississippi A- A+ A- A- A+ 31% 35% 35% D- A+ D+ F F A+ C+ C C+ D+ F+ C- F F 23% 52% 25% A+ F+ A F C+ D F A+ F
1.14 69% 44% 39% +8 -2 1.13 26% 0.7 .18 10% .33 70% .23 1.23 73% 40% 58% +14 -5 1.19 23% 1.4 .32 10% .54 64% .35
Nov
16		 UNLV F+ B+ F F F 44% 27% 29% C- F C A+ A- F A+ A A+ D+ F F+ A D- 44% 11% 45% F+ F+ C- A+ A C+ D+ F F+
0.98 65% 14% 20% -9 0 0.83 31% 1.5 .44 23% .49 80% .39 1.15 83% 50% 28% +8 +2 1.22 34% 0.5 .16 18% .40 81% .32
Nov
20		 Purdue B C+ D F D+ 43% 24% 33% A- C- A+ B- A+ C A+ C+ A+ B F+ A- F+ C+ 29% 22% 49% C+ C+ D- A+ A+ B+ A F A-
1.05 59% 33% 24% -6 0 0.90 39% 1.1 .45 18% .45 68% .31 1.18 75% 33% 41% +9 -1 1.18 42% 0.6 .24 16% .19 82% .16
Nov
21		 Wake Forest C- A F B+ A- 30% 14% 56% C B+ A+ F B- F B F C- A- D+ A+ A+ A+ 22% 22% 55% A A+ F D+ F A+ D B- D+
1.01 69% 17% 38% +3 0 1.09 43% 0.8 .35 25% .36 61% .22 1.03 64% 27% 26% -8 -1 0.84 42% 1.3 .53 21% .36 74% .26
Nov
26		 Southern Illinois C+ D+ F B- C 39% 20% 41% C C B+ A+ A+ D A- A+ A A+ C+ A+ A+ A+ 37% 44% 19% A+ A+ F A+ C+ B- F A- F
1.06 53% 30% 35% -3 0 0.96 34% 1.4 .49 21% .36 80% .29 0.83 56% 21% 13% -14 -3 0.67 38% 0.7 .27 19% .58 61% .35
Dec
3		 New Orleans B- B- A+ A+ A+ 38% 19% 43% C- A+ A- F F F+ F D+ F B D A+ B- B 37% 21% 42% C- B- D+ A+ A+ C- C B C+
1.22 60% 70% 43% +13 0 1.28 43% 0.5 .23 18% .24 71% .17 1.00 63% 18% 32% -4 0 0.94 38% 0.5 .20 18% .37 71% .26
Dec
6		 Baylor B- D+ C+ F F 44% 31% 25% A+ D- A+ A A+ A- A+ B- A+ A+ A- A+ A- A+ 26% 26% 48% C- A+ D+ A+ A- A- F B+ D-
1.10 54% 41% 14% -8 -1 0.84 41% 1.2 .48 13% .40 76% .31 1.00 54% 23% 29% -8 -2 0.82 42% 0.8 .35 18% .43 68% .29
Dec
13		 Louisville B- C F+ D C- 35% 47% 18% F D A+ A+ A+ B B+ C B D- F A+ F F 29% 10% 61% B+ F B F F B+ F F+ F
1.02 55% 26% 30% -8 -4 0.79 38% 1.3 .50 15% .33 70% .23 1.38 86% 0% 50% +19 +1 1.41 32% 1.5 .48 18% .43 84% .36
Dec
17		 Vanderbilt F C- D+ F D 37% 29% 35% C- D C F D- F+ B+ B- B+ A+ A D+ A+ A+ 29% 24% 47% A A+ D+ A+ A+ A+ F C+ F
0.82 53% 33% 22% -9 -1 0.81 27% 0.6 .17 23% .40 77% .30 0.90 50% 42% 22% -10 -1 0.80 35% 0.7 .23 23% .61 78% .47
Dec
20		 Mississippi St. D+ F+ F D- F+ 25% 24% 51% C+ D- A+ A+ A+ F B+ D- B- A- D B+ A B+ 39% 20% 41% D B B- A B+ A+ F C+ F
0.94 46% 25% 27% -11 -1 0.76 41% 1.3 .54 26% .31 69% .21 1.01 67% 33% 26% -2 0 0.98 30% 0.8 .24 21% .45 68% .31
Dec
22		 Alabama St. B- A+ C A+ A+ 30% 15% 56% D+ A A F C+ F D+ F F B- D D+ A+ B 20% 35% 45% A+ A- F C F B+ F A+ D
1.21 75% 38% 43% +13 0 1.28 45% 0.9 .42 25% .33 61% .20 0.92 60% 39% 22% -8 -3 0.80 43% 0.8 .36 22% .39 59% .23
Dec
31		 North Texas F B A+ F+ B+ 39% 24% 37% C- B B C B- F D- F F A+ B- C A+ A+ 52% 13% 35% D- A+ A D- B- A+ A+ A A+
0.86 63% 50% 27% +1 0 1.02 38% 1.0 .38 30% .32 27% .09 0.72 54% 33% 6% -17 +2 0.72 26% 1.1 .29 27% .17 63% .10
Jan
3		 Rice B- B F F F 37% 34% 29% C- F A+ A+ A+ F A+ A+ A+ C+ F+ A+ B+ A- 22% 12% 66% F B C- D D+ A- F F F
1.16 67% 14% 25% -9 -2 0.80 45% 1.8 .83 23% .60 87% .52 1.07 67% 0% 30% -7 0 0.88 38% 1.0 .38 21% .59 77% .45
Jan
11		 Florida Atlantic D+ F+ B- A+ B- 46% 9% 46% B+ B F A+ D+ D+ D- F F C F F A+ D+ 30% 28% 42% A C D+ F F C+ B+ B- B+
1.00 46% 40% 42% +1 +2 1.07 14% 1.6 .22 18% .25 63% .16 1.14 71% 56% 25% +3 -2 1.05 37% 1.4 .50 19% .25 69% .17
Jan
14		 Temple F F C+ F F 50% 10% 40% A F C- C+ C D+ D+ F D- A+ A+ F A+ A+ 43% 16% 41% D A+ F+ A+ B- A+ C D+ C-
0.85 36% 40% 25% -16 +2 0.74 28% 1.1 .31 17% .28 60% .17 0.82 32% 86% 11% -18 +1 0.68 35% 0.7 .24 22% .38 79% .30
Jan
18		 Texas San Antonio B+ B- A+ A+ A+ 56% 13% 31% B+ A+ C+ F+ D+ C- B- F+ C C+ C F A D 30% 21% 48% B- D+ D- A- C A+ A B A
1.31 63% 57% 53% +14 +2 1.35 39% 0.9 .35 17% .30 67% .20 0.95 53% 58% 26% -3 -1 0.95 35% 0.7 .25 23% .16 67% .11
Jan
21		 Tulsa D+ C F F F+ 37% 18% 45% C+ F+ A C- A- F C C- C D+ A+ A C- A+ 40% 16% 44% A- A+ F A- D D- F F+ F
1.00 58% 22% 26% -8 0 0.86 38% 1.1 .40 23% .28 71% .20 1.26 41% 29% 37% -6 +1 0.91 42% 1.1 .47 12% .62 86% .54
Jan
24		 Wichita St. F C C F F 27% 35% 37% F+ F D+ A+ A- F F B- D- B+ D- B B- D+ 39% 21% 39% C+ C- A D+ B+ B+ A+ B+ A+
0.82 57% 39% 16% -10 -3 0.76 24% 1.6 .38 24% .20 73% .15 1.03 64% 33% 32% 0 0 1.02 31% 1.1 .33 18% .14 63% .08
Jan
29		 Florida Atlantic B+ B- A+ C+ A- 46% 31% 24% D- B+ A A+ A+ C C- A+ B A+ A+ C+ B A+ 37% 16% 47% C- A+ F A+ B+ A+ F B- F
1.18 59% 50% 36% +5 -1 1.10 36% 1.3 .45 17% .29 89% .26 0.84 38% 43% 30% -10 0 0.84 41% 0.8 .31 31% .73 69% .50
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
1		 Tulane C- C B- F F 35% 26% 39% D F A D B- B A+ A+ A+ D C+ F F F+ 41% 9% 50% F F A F B- A- F C F+
1.10 56% 42% 17% -10 -1 0.80 43% 0.9 .38 16% .65 84% .55 1.13 58% 50% 39% +5 +2 1.15 14% 1.5 .21 19% .46 77% .36
Feb
5		 UAB B A+ B A+ A+ 28% 39% 33% F A- C+ A B D- A- C+ A- B+ F A+ A+ B+ 26% 15% 58% C B+ D+ C C- A F A+ F
1.13 75% 41% 42% +10 -3 1.16 28% 1.1 .31 20% .33 76% .25 1.00 79% 13% 23% -8 0 0.85 35% 1.1 .37 16% .52 60% .31
Feb
8		 Charlotte C- C+ F+ F+ D- 34% 32% 34% F+ F+ B- A+ A+ C+ D+ C+ C- A+ B F A+ A+ 22% 22% 56% A+ A+ A+ F B- A- A+ A+ A+
1.11 61% 29% 28% -5 -2 0.89 33% 1.8 .61 14% .30 72% .22 0.78 55% 55% 18% -11 -1 0.78 22% 1.3 .27 23% .17 56% .09



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.8 8.7 3.3 13.9 1st
2nd 0.8 10.4 4.6 15.8 2nd
3rd 0.3 10.0 13.0 0.8 24.0 3rd
4th 2.9 12.1 1.0 16.0 4th
5th 0.3 8.4 3.9 12.6 5th
6th 1.9 6.1 0.3 8.3 6th
7th 0.2 3.5 1.5 5.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.1 0.1 2.8 8th
9th 0.1 0.9 0.2 1.1 9th
10th 0.2 0.1 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.3 1.9 7.9 19.2 27.2 26.2 14.1 3.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 3.3    2.5 0.8
13-5 62.2% 8.7    1.9 4.3 2.5 0.2
12-6 6.8% 1.8    0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 13.9% 13.9 4.4 5.3 3.2 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 3.3% 24.1% 23.5% 0.6% 11.4 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.5 0.8%
13-5 14.1% 24.1% 24.1% 11.7 1.3 1.9 0.2 0.0 10.7
12-6 26.2% 19.3% 19.3% 11.9 0.9 3.7 0.5 21.2
11-7 27.2% 13.8% 13.8% 12.3 0.3 2.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 23.4
10-8 19.2% 8.7% 8.7% 12.7 0.0 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 17.6
9-9 7.9% 6.1% 6.1% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 7.4
8-10 1.9% 2.7% 2.7% 14.8 0.0 0.0 1.8
7-11 0.3% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 12.1 84.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 9.5% 11.0 9.5