Memphis
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +5.8 #92
Expected Predictive Rating +4.5 #99
Pace 72.6 #83
Improvement -2.9 #308

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #182 C A F D- C
Defense #38 A- C+ A- C- B

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #111 1.19 #141 +2.1 #103
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #177 0.67 #299 -0.9 #223
Three Pointers 38% #239 1.02 #186 -1.3 #227
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #177 -0.1 #177
Freethrows 15.0 #295 67% #330 10.1 #322
Second Chance 37.6% #25 1.14 #63 0.43 #27
Turnovers 19.1% #327
Total Offense -0.6 #182

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #324 1.17 #196 +3.3 #76
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #110 0.62 #19 +0.9 #130
Three Pointers 45% #65 0.86 #22 +1.4 #129
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #37 +5.6 #37
Freethrows 18.8 #261 72% #144 13.5 #250
Second Chance 32.7% #272 0.92 #35 0.30 #125
Turnovers 19.9% #30
Total Defense +6.4 #38

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #164 -1.3% #73
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.6% #187 -9.7% #36
Possession Length 16.3 #76 18.0 #289
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #60 0.20 #282
Improvement -3.8 #347 +0.9 #127

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.7% 16.5% 11.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.1 11.9 12.3
.500 or above 76.0% 87.8% 67.1%
.500 or above in Conference 93.0% 97.9% 89.4%
Conference Champion 15.2% 24.2% 8.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round13.7% 16.5% 11.6%
Second Round2.2% 3.2% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 43.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 30 - 6
Quad 23 - 63 - 12
Quad 38 - 311 - 15
Quad 47 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 101 San Francisco W 76 - 70 66% +9  1 - 0 +8 -0 C- A+ F +8 C+ A A+
 Tue, Nov 11 62 @Mississippi L 77 - 83 28% -5  1 - 1 +6 +13 A+ F A+ -7 F C D
 Sun, Nov 16 114 UNLV L 78 - 92 70% -11  1 - 2 -14 -4 F B+ F -7 F A+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 5 Purdue L 71 - 80 8% -1  1 - 3 +12 +9 C A+ C +3 C+ A+ A
 Fri, Nov 21 63 Wake Forest L 68 - 69 39% +5  1 - 4 +8 +3 A- B F +5 A+ F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 146 Southern Illinois W 74 - 58 77% +11  2 - 4 +14 +3 C A+ F +11 A+ C- B
 Wed, Dec 3 235 New Orleans W 86 - 70 88% +16  3 - 4 +9 +6 A+ F F +3 B A+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 41 Baylor W 78 - 71 37% +2  4 - 4 +16 +6 F A+ A+ +10 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 13 @Louisville L 73 - 99 8% -17  4 - 5 -5 +7 D A+ B -11 F F A-
 Wed, Dec 17 21 Vanderbilt L 70 - 77 OT 21% -3  4 - 6 +7 -11 F C- F +19 A+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 76 @Mississippi St. L 66 - 71 32% -4  4 - 7 +6 -1 F A+ F +7 B- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 22 311 Alabama St. W 88 - 67 94% +13  5 - 7 +9 +5 A+ C+ F +3 A+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 127 North Texas W 57 - 48 74% +8  6 - 7 1 - 0 +8 -8 B+ B F +17 A+ B A+
 Sat, Jan 3 239 @Rice W 76 - 70 75% -1  7 - 7 2 - 0 +5 +7 F A+ F -2 B D- A-
 Sun, Jan 11 95 @Florida Atlantic L 78 - 89 40% -8  7 - 8 2 - 1 -2 +2 B- D+ C -3 C F B
 Wed, Jan 14 140 Temple W 55 - 53 77% +4  8 - 8 3 - 1 +0 -15 F C F +15 A+ C+ A+
 Sun, Jan 18 345 Texas San Antonio W 95 - 69 96% +12  9 - 8 4 - 1 +11 +13 A+ D+ C- -2 D C A+
 Wed, Jan 21 70 @Tulsa L 66 - 83 31% -3  9 - 9 4 - 2 -6 -1 F A- F -6 A+ F D-
 Sat, Jan 24 103 @Wichita St. L 70 - 72 43%
 Thu, Jan 29 95 Florida Atlantic W 77 - 74 62%
 Sun, Feb 1 172 Tulane W 77 - 67 82%
 Thu, Feb 5 117 @UAB L 74 - 75 50%
 Sun, Feb 8 173 Charlotte W 76 - 66 82%
 Thu, Feb 12 127 @North Texas W 65 - 64 53%
 Sat, Feb 14 39 @Utah St. L 70 - 80 17%
 Thu, Feb 19 74 @South Florida L 75 - 80 32%
 Sun, Feb 22 117 UAB W 78 - 72 71%
 Thu, Feb 26 103 Wichita St. W 73 - 69 65%
 Sun, Mar 1 267 @East Carolina W 75 - 66 79%
 Thu, Mar 5 74 South Florida W 78 - 77 55%
 Sun, Mar 8 172 @Tulane W 74 - 70 64%
Totals 17 - 14 11 - 7 +6 -1 C A F +6 A- C+ A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 4.3 6.5 3.3 0.5 15.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 5.3 8.0 2.4 0.2 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.5 10.0 3.0 0.2 16.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 8.4 4.3 0.2 14.0 4th
5th 0.2 4.6 6.2 0.5 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.5 6.1 1.3 9.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 3.6 2.7 0.1 6.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.8 3.1 0.4 5.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.7 2.2 0.6 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.8 9.0 15.2 19.7 20.7 15.4 9.0 3.5 0.5 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.5    0.5 0.0
15-3 94.8% 3.3    2.6 0.7 0.0
14-4 71.7% 6.5    2.8 2.8 0.8 0.0
13-5 27.8% 4.3    0.6 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.0
12-6 3.1% 0.7    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 15.2% 15.2 6.5 5.3 2.5 0.7 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.5% 42.6% 41.7% 0.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 1.6%
15-3 3.5% 26.1% 25.8% 0.3% 11.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 0.0 2.6 0.4%
14-4 9.0% 23.9% 23.9% 11.6 0.0 0.9 1.2 0.0 6.8
13-5 15.4% 20.5% 20.5% 11.8 0.8 2.2 0.2 12.3
12-6 20.7% 15.7% 15.7% 12.0 0.4 2.3 0.5 0.0 17.4
11-7 19.7% 10.9% 10.9% 12.3 0.1 1.3 0.7 0.1 17.6
10-8 15.2% 7.8% 7.8% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.2 14.0
9-9 9.0% 5.2% 5.2% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 8.5
8-10 4.8% 3.4% 3.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 4.6
7-11 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.6
6-12 0.5% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.4
5-13 0.1% 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 12.1 86.3 0.0%