Memphis
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#50
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#19
Pace75.0#32
Improvement-4.8#340

Offense
Total Offense+4.4#71
First Shot+2.6#102
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#80
Layup/Dunks-0.1#184
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#179
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#144
Freethrows+2.0#69
Improvement-4.3#342

Defense
Total Defense+6.7#34
First Shot+6.5#24
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#168
Layups/Dunks+4.4#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#240
Freethrows+1.0#111
Improvement-0.5#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 95.9% 96.5% 92.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.9% 91.7% 92.5%
Average Seed 8.9 8.8 9.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.7% 1.4% 3.1%
First Round94.9% 95.7% 90.7%
Second Round35.2% 35.5% 34.1%
Sweet Sixteen4.8% 4.8% 4.8%
Elite Eight1.5% 1.5% 1.6%
Final Four0.3% 0.2% 0.6%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 9 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b4 - 06 - 1
Quad 25 - 111 - 2
Quad 310 - 322 - 6
Quad 46 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 19   Missouri W 83-75 39%     1 - 0 +21.9 +8.4 +13.2
  Nov 09, 2024 92   @ UNLV W 80-74 60%     2 - 0 +14.3 +12.5 +1.8
  Nov 15, 2024 186   Ohio W 94-70 91%     3 - 0 +19.9 +11.1 +6.9
  Nov 21, 2024 67   @ San Francisco W 68-64 50%     4 - 0 +15.0 +1.4 +13.5
  Nov 25, 2024 28   Connecticut W 99-97 OT 37%     5 - 0 +16.5 +24.4 -8.0
  Nov 26, 2024 8   Michigan St. W 71-63 21%     6 - 0 +27.5 +17.3 +11.1
  Nov 27, 2024 2   Auburn L 76-90 11%     6 - 1 +10.2 +15.5 -5.9
  Dec 04, 2024 119   Louisiana Tech W 81-71 85%     7 - 1 +10.0 +9.5 +0.7
  Dec 08, 2024 98   Arkansas St. L 72-85 80%     7 - 2 -10.8 -9.6 +0.6
  Dec 14, 2024 21   @ Clemson W 87-82 OT 22%     8 - 2 +24.2 +17.8 +6.1
  Dec 18, 2024 99   @ Virginia W 64-62 63%     9 - 2 +9.5 +0.0 +9.7
  Dec 21, 2024 33   Mississippi St. L 66-79 51%     9 - 3 -2.1 -4.8 +3.1
  Dec 28, 2024 29   Mississippi W 87-70 48%     10 - 3 +28.5 +12.2 +14.9
  Jan 02, 2025 107   @ Florida Atlantic W 90-62 67%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +34.6 +14.6 +18.8
  Jan 05, 2025 79   North Texas W 68-64 73%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +8.5 +4.6 +4.3
  Jan 11, 2025 163   East Carolina W 74-70 90%     13 - 3 3 - 0 +1.1 -6.3 +7.1
  Jan 16, 2025 155   @ Temple L 81-88 78%     13 - 4 3 - 1 -4.0 +3.8 -7.4
  Jan 19, 2025 243   @ Charlotte W 77-68 88%     14 - 4 4 - 1 +7.2 -0.5 +7.5
  Jan 23, 2025 126   Wichita St. W 61-53 86%     15 - 4 5 - 1 +7.3 -9.4 +16.9
  Jan 26, 2025 108   UAB W 100-77 83%     16 - 4 6 - 1 +24.0 +10.0 +11.2
  Jan 30, 2025 141   @ Tulane W 68-56 76%     17 - 4 7 - 1 +15.8 +1.4 +15.2
  Feb 02, 2025 191   @ Rice W 86-83 82%     18 - 4 8 - 1 +4.2 +10.1 -6.1
  Feb 05, 2025 250   Tulsa W 83-71 95%     19 - 4 9 - 1 +4.4 +16.1 -10.4
  Feb 09, 2025 155   Temple W 90-82 89%     20 - 4 10 - 1 +5.5 +11.4 -6.1
  Feb 13, 2025 189   @ South Florida W 80-65 82%     21 - 4 11 - 1 +16.2 +1.7 +13.0
  Feb 16, 2025 126   @ Wichita St. L 79-84 OT 73%     21 - 5 11 - 2 -0.2 +2.1 -1.8
  Feb 23, 2025 107   Florida Atlantic W 84-65 83%     22 - 5 12 - 2 +20.1 +9.1 +10.8
  Feb 26, 2025 191   Rice W 84-72 92%     23 - 5 13 - 2 +7.6 +8.5 -0.8
  Mar 02, 2025 108   @ UAB W 88-81 67%     24 - 5 14 - 2 +13.5 +8.3 +4.9
  Mar 04, 2025 184   @ Texas San Antonio W 75-70 82%     25 - 5 15 - 2 +6.4 -3.2 +9.3
  Mar 07, 2025 189   South Florida W 84-68 92%     26 - 5 16 - 2 +11.7 +10.0 +1.5
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 100.0 100.0 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 100.0    100.0
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total 100.0% 100.0 100.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 95.9% 48.7% 47.2% 8.9 0.1 0.3 3.5 24.2 46.4 19.5 2.0 4.1 91.9%
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 95.9% 48.7% 47.2% 8.9 0.1 0.3 3.5 24.2 46.4 19.5 2.0 4.1 91.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 48.7% 100.0% 8.6 0.1 0.7 6.5 34.8 47.0 10.5 0.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 18.6% 91.2% 9.2 0.7 14.7 45.9 26.9 3.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 16.5% 92.2% 9.2 0.4 14.6 45.0 28.3 3.9
Lose Out 16.2% 92.5% 9.2 0.7 12.8 46.8 28.9 3.3