Memphis
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.7#41
Expected Predictive Rating+17.0#16
Pace76.4#23
Improvement-4.4#336

Offense
Total Offense+5.1#56
First Shot+3.2#88
After Offensive Rebound+1.9#77
Layup/Dunks+0.1#182
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#177
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#137
Freethrows+2.1#65
Improvement-5.0#357

Defense
Total Defense+6.6#37
First Shot+6.4#26
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#169
Layups/Dunks+4.4#46
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#21
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.1#245
Freethrows+0.9#116
Improvement+0.5#160
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 9.4% 9.7% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 83.4% 83.9% 70.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 66.7% 67.4% 49.5%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 10.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 92.8% 93.5% 75.4%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four9.1% 8.9% 15.2%
First Round78.8% 79.4% 61.6%
Second Round34.8% 35.1% 25.8%
Sweet Sixteen8.6% 8.8% 4.7%
Elite Eight2.7% 2.8% 0.9%
Final Four0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tulsa (Home) - 96.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 12 - 1
Quad 1b2 - 14 - 2
Quad 26 - 211 - 3
Quad 311 - 222 - 6
Quad 46 - 028 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 23   Missouri W 83-75 46%     1 - 0 +20.6 +10.6 +9.6
  Nov 09, 2024 101   @ UNLV W 80-74 67%     2 - 0 +13.1 +9.4 +3.6
  Nov 15, 2024 168   Ohio W 94-70 90%     3 - 0 +21.5 +12.4 +7.2
  Nov 21, 2024 72   San Francisco W 68-64 65%     4 - 0 +11.6 -0.9 +12.5
  Nov 25, 2024 24   Connecticut W 99-97 OT 37%     5 - 0 +17.0 +24.0 -7.1
  Nov 26, 2024 15   Michigan St. W 71-63 31%     6 - 0 +24.9 +14.8 +11.0
  Nov 27, 2024 1   Auburn L 76-90 14%     6 - 1 +9.2 +14.9 -6.3
  Dec 04, 2024 113   Louisiana Tech W 81-71 85%     7 - 1 +10.7 +10.1 +0.9
  Dec 08, 2024 93   Arkansas St. L 72-85 78%     7 - 2 -9.6 -8.8 +1.1
  Dec 14, 2024 32   @ Clemson W 87-82 OT 32%     8 - 2 +21.4 +16.3 +4.7
  Dec 18, 2024 97   @ Virginia W 64-62 66%     9 - 2 +9.4 +1.7 +7.9
  Dec 21, 2024 35   Mississippi St. L 66-79 54%     9 - 3 -2.3 -4.6 +2.6
  Dec 28, 2024 26   Mississippi W 87-70 48%     10 - 3 +29.1 +13.7 +14.0
  Jan 02, 2025 106   @ Florida Atlantic W 90-62 68%     11 - 3 1 - 0 +34.7 +14.1 +19.5
  Jan 05, 2025 70   North Texas W 68-64 73%     12 - 3 2 - 0 +9.3 +5.9 +3.7
  Jan 11, 2025 150   East Carolina W 74-70 89%     13 - 3 3 - 0 +2.3 -5.0 +7.0
  Jan 16, 2025 125   @ Temple L 81-88 75%     13 - 4 3 - 1 -2.4 +5.7 -7.8
  Jan 19, 2025 221   @ Charlotte W 77-68 87%     14 - 4 4 - 1 +8.2 +1.2 +6.8
  Jan 23, 2025 134   Wichita St. W 61-53 88%     15 - 4 5 - 1 +7.1 -10.7 +18.0
  Jan 26, 2025 96   UAB W 100-77 81%     16 - 4 6 - 1 +25.4 +12.1 +10.5
  Jan 30, 2025 141   @ Tulane W 68-56 78%     17 - 4 7 - 1 +15.7 +2.5 +14.0
  Feb 02, 2025 192   @ Rice W 86-83 84%     18 - 4 8 - 1 +4.0 +10.8 -6.9
  Feb 05, 2025 238   Tulsa W 83-64 97%    
  Feb 09, 2025 125   Temple W 86-74 88%    
  Feb 13, 2025 177   @ South Florida W 81-71 81%    
  Feb 16, 2025 134   @ Wichita St. W 81-73 75%    
  Feb 23, 2025 106   Florida Atlantic W 86-76 84%    
  Feb 26, 2025 192   Rice W 82-66 93%    
  Mar 02, 2025 96   @ UAB W 84-80 63%    
  Mar 04, 2025 202   @ Texas San Antonio W 87-76 84%    
  Mar 07, 2025 177   South Florida W 83-68 93%    
Projected Record 26 - 5 16 - 2




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 8.7 24.8 36.5 21.7 92.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.7 2.7 0.7 5.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 1.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.5 11.7 25.5 36.5 21.7 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 21.7    21.7
16-2 100.0% 36.5    35.8 0.7
15-3 97.3% 24.8    19.6 4.8 0.4
14-4 74.6% 8.7    4.0 3.8 0.8 0.0
13-5 31.5% 1.1    0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 4.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9
Total 92.8% 92.8 81.3 9.8 1.6 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 21.7% 95.7% 56.0% 39.7% 7.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 3.2 4.0 3.6 3.2 3.2 1.5 0.3 0.9 90.1%
16-2 36.5% 88.8% 52.9% 36.0% 9.2 0.1 0.4 1.9 5.5 11.5 10.2 3.0 0.0 4.1 76.3%
15-3 25.5% 78.9% 48.4% 30.5% 10.0 0.1 0.8 4.6 9.2 5.4 0.0 5.4 59.1%
14-4 11.7% 66.6% 42.0% 24.5% 10.5 0.0 0.5 2.9 4.3 0.1 3.9 42.3%
13-5 3.5% 53.4% 33.8% 19.6% 10.8 0.0 0.4 1.4 0.0 1.6 29.6%
12-6 0.9% 43.5% 28.3% 15.2% 11.1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.5 21.2%
11-7 0.2% 0.1 0.1
10-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 83.4% 50.2% 33.2% 9.0 0.0 0.5 1.3 3.3 4.4 5.5 9.5 19.7 24.2 14.9 0.2 16.6 66.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 12.1% 100.0% 5.8 0.2 4.0 10.3 25.8 30.8 19.2 7.5 2.2 0.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 3.5% 91.2% 8.2 1.7 5.4 17.3 27.8 26.6 11.3 1.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.5% 88.4% 8.7 0.6 1.7 9.0 24.0 30.5 18.1 4.5