Baylor
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+16.1#12
Expected Predictive Rating+16.5#20
Pace64.9#282
Improvement+1.6#78

Offense
Total Offense+11.5#6
First Shot+8.0#18
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#19
Layup/Dunks+2.6#96
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#17
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#70
Freethrows-2.4#309
Improvement+0.7#122

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#58
First Shot+4.4#53
After Offensive Rebounds+0.2#164
Layups/Dunks+11.8#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.1#344
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.5#345
Freethrows+1.3#96
Improvement+0.9#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 1.2% 1.4% 0.2%
#1 Seed 8.0% 8.9% 3.2%
Top 2 Seed 21.1% 23.3% 10.1%
Top 4 Seed 51.1% 54.6% 33.8%
Top 6 Seed 72.5% 75.9% 55.2%
NCAA Tourney Bid 92.1% 93.9% 82.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 91.1% 93.1% 81.3%
Average Seed 4.6 4.5 5.6
.500 or above 95.6% 97.0% 88.3%
.500 or above in Conference 87.5% 90.4% 72.5%
Conference Champion 12.1% 13.6% 4.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four3.5% 3.0% 6.4%
First Round90.6% 92.7% 79.8%
Second Round74.1% 76.8% 60.6%
Sweet Sixteen43.3% 45.3% 32.8%
Elite Eight21.3% 22.6% 14.8%
Final Four10.2% 10.9% 6.6%
Championship Game4.7% 5.1% 2.8%
National Champion2.0% 2.2% 1.1%

Next Game: Utah (Home) - 83.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 3 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 84 - 8
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 10
Quad 25 - 113 - 11
Quad 34 - 017 - 11
Quad 44 - 021 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 4   @ Gonzaga L 63-101 25%     0 - 1 -14.9 -1.2 -13.5
  Nov 09, 2024 29   Arkansas W 72-67 63%     1 - 1 +17.8 +11.3 +6.9
  Nov 12, 2024 127   Sam Houston St. W 104-67 93%     2 - 1 +36.2 +24.4 +10.2
  Nov 17, 2024 286   Tarleton St. W 104-41 98%     3 - 1 +53.2 +28.5 +24.1
  Nov 21, 2024 13   St. John's W 99-98 2OT 51%     4 - 1 +16.9 +12.4 +4.4
  Nov 22, 2024 3   Tennessee L 62-77 34%     4 - 2 +5.5 +10.4 -7.1
  Nov 27, 2024 345   New Orleans W 91-60 99%     5 - 2 +16.1 +18.7 +0.1
  Dec 04, 2024 11   @ Connecticut L 72-76 35%     5 - 3 +16.0 +15.9 -0.6
  Dec 09, 2024 207   Abilene Christian W 88-57 97%     6 - 3 +25.9 +19.0 +8.9
  Dec 11, 2024 181   Norfolk St. W 94-69 96%     7 - 3 +21.0 +18.4 +2.6
  Dec 31, 2024 66   Utah W 81-70 84%    
  Jan 04, 2025 5   @ Iowa St. L 73-79 27%    
  Jan 07, 2025 26   Cincinnati W 73-68 69%    
  Jan 11, 2025 62   @ Arizona St. W 76-72 65%    
  Jan 14, 2025 17   @ Arizona L 77-79 42%    
  Jan 19, 2025 88   TCU W 78-65 88%    
  Jan 22, 2025 68   Kansas St. W 79-68 84%    
  Jan 25, 2025 66   @ Utah W 78-73 66%    
  Jan 28, 2025 40   @ BYU W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 01, 2025 10   Kansas W 75-73 57%    
  Feb 04, 2025 24   @ Texas Tech L 73-74 47%    
  Feb 08, 2025 84   Central Florida W 80-68 87%    
  Feb 10, 2025 6   @ Houston L 64-70 29%    
  Feb 15, 2025 39   West Virginia W 75-68 75%    
  Feb 17, 2025 17   Arizona W 80-76 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 75   @ Colorado W 76-70 69%    
  Feb 25, 2025 26   @ Cincinnati L 70-71 48%    
  Mar 01, 2025 97   Oklahoma St. W 83-69 89%    
  Mar 04, 2025 88   @ TCU W 75-68 73%    
  Mar 08, 2025 6   Houston L 67-68 50%    
Projected Record 20 - 10 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 1.9 3.7 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 12.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.2 5.3 3.4 1.1 0.1 13.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.5 6.0 3.3 0.7 0.0 14.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 5.8 3.2 0.5 0.0 12.6 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 5.0 3.8 0.5 0.0 11.3 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.8 0.8 0.0 9.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.7 1.1 0.1 8.0 7th
8th 0.1 1.3 3.1 1.2 0.1 5.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 2.2 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.8 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.9 3.4 5.8 8.6 11.5 13.3 14.6 13.4 11.0 7.8 4.6 2.0 0.6 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.6    0.6 0.0
18-2 93.3% 1.8    1.6 0.3 0.0
17-3 75.5% 3.5    2.3 1.0 0.1
16-4 47.7% 3.7    1.5 1.7 0.5 0.0
15-5 16.9% 1.9    0.4 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 12.1% 12.1 6.6 3.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 100.0% 37.5% 62.5% 1.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.6% 100.0% 37.3% 62.7% 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 2.0% 100.0% 34.2% 65.8% 1.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 100.0%
17-3 4.6% 100.0% 27.3% 72.7% 1.6 2.2 2.0 0.4 0.1 100.0%
16-4 7.8% 100.0% 22.6% 77.4% 2.0 2.3 3.3 1.8 0.4 0.0 100.0%
15-5 11.0% 100.0% 18.9% 81.1% 2.7 1.2 3.7 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 100.0%
14-6 13.4% 100.0% 14.1% 85.9% 3.4 0.4 2.3 4.6 4.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 14.6% 100.0% 9.2% 90.8% 4.2 0.1 0.8 2.9 5.0 3.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
12-8 13.3% 99.9% 6.2% 93.7% 5.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.7 4.1 3.3 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.9%
11-9 11.5% 99.5% 3.7% 95.8% 6.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.0 2.9 2.7 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.1 99.5%
10-10 8.6% 94.5% 2.8% 91.6% 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.8 1.5 0.7 0.0 0.5 94.3%
9-11 5.8% 71.5% 2.2% 69.3% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.0 1.8 0.3 1.7 70.9%
8-12 3.4% 25.4% 0.6% 24.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.6 25.0%
7-13 1.9% 4.2% 0.6% 3.6% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8 3.6%
6-14 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.4%
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 92.1% 10.9% 81.1% 4.6 8.0 13.1 15.1 14.9 12.3 9.0 6.0 4.0 3.2 2.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 7.9 91.1%