Baylor
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+14.7#27
Expected Predictive Rating+13.4#40
Pace63.6#299
Improvement-1.6#258

Offense
Total Offense+9.2#17
First Shot+6.3#41
After Offensive Rebound+2.9#27
Layup/Dunks+1.4#130
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#17
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#93
Freethrows-2.2#306
Improvement-3.6#327

Defense
Total Defense+5.5#45
First Shot+4.3#60
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#80
Layups/Dunks+11.3#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#346
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#339
Freethrows+1.1#108
Improvement+1.9#88
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 2.9% 4.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 86.8% 89.3% 81.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 86.4% 88.9% 81.2%
Average Seed 9.6 9.4 10.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four18.4% 13.3% 29.6%
First Round79.6% 84.0% 69.9%
Second Round39.1% 42.4% 31.9%
Sweet Sixteen11.4% 11.6% 11.0%
Elite Eight4.5% 4.4% 4.6%
Final Four1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
Championship Game0.4% 0.3% 0.4%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 101 - 10
Quad 1b4 - 16 - 12
Quad 25 - 211 - 13
Quad 32 - 113 - 14
Quad 45 - 018 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 9   @ Gonzaga L 63-101 26%     0 - 1 -16.4 -2.0 -14.2
  Nov 09, 2024 38   Arkansas W 72-67 57%     1 - 1 +18.0 +13.1 +5.3
  Nov 12, 2024 170   Sam Houston St. W 104-67 94%     2 - 1 +33.7 +22.5 +9.6
  Nov 17, 2024 274   Tarleton St. W 104-41 98%     3 - 1 +53.9 +31.0 +22.3
  Nov 21, 2024 13   St. John's W 99-98 2OT 38%     4 - 1 +18.8 +17.3 +1.3
  Nov 22, 2024 6   Tennessee L 62-77 30%     4 - 2 +5.2 +10.2 -7.2
  Nov 27, 2024 354   New Orleans W 91-60 99%     5 - 2 +14.5 +16.5 +0.7
  Dec 04, 2024 28   @ Connecticut L 72-76 40%     5 - 3 +13.2 +15.9 -3.3
  Dec 09, 2024 210   Abilene Christian W 88-57 96%     6 - 3 +25.4 +22.5 +5.0
  Dec 11, 2024 182   Norfolk St. W 94-69 95%     7 - 3 +21.0 +17.4 +3.5
  Dec 31, 2024 64   Utah W 81-56 80%     8 - 3 1 - 0 +31.0 +3.7 +25.0
  Jan 04, 2025 10   @ Iowa St. L 55-74 26%     8 - 4 1 - 1 +2.4 -1.2 +2.1
  Jan 07, 2025 49   Cincinnati W 68-48 73%     9 - 4 2 - 1 +28.3 +12.9 +18.7
  Jan 11, 2025 73   @ Arizona St. W 72-66 OT 67%     10 - 4 3 - 1 +16.3 +5.0 +11.3
  Jan 14, 2025 12   @ Arizona L 70-81 28%     10 - 5 3 - 2 +9.7 +8.6 +0.7
  Jan 19, 2025 74   TCU L 71-74 83%     10 - 6 3 - 3 +1.8 +6.7 -5.1
  Jan 22, 2025 59   Kansas St. W 70-62 77%     11 - 6 4 - 3 +15.0 +18.1 -1.4
  Jan 25, 2025 64   @ Utah W 76-61 63%     12 - 6 5 - 3 +26.5 +18.5 +9.9
  Jan 28, 2025 20   @ BYU L 89-93 OT 33%     12 - 7 5 - 4 +15.2 +22.7 -7.5
  Feb 01, 2025 18   Kansas W 81-70 53%     13 - 7 6 - 4 +25.1 +10.5 +13.7
  Feb 04, 2025 7   @ Texas Tech L 59-73 23%     13 - 8 6 - 5 +8.5 -0.8 +8.4
  Feb 08, 2025 78   Central Florida W 91-76 83%     14 - 8 7 - 5 +19.6 +21.4 -1.4
  Feb 10, 2025 4   @ Houston L 65-76 16%     14 - 9 7 - 6 +14.5 +19.2 -7.0
  Feb 15, 2025 43   West Virginia W 74-71 OT 71%     15 - 9 8 - 6 +12.0 +6.1 +5.8
  Feb 17, 2025 12   Arizona L 67-74 48%     15 - 10 8 - 7 +8.2 +2.0 +6.0
  Feb 22, 2025 86   @ Colorado L 74-76 70%     15 - 11 8 - 8 +7.3 +10.1 -2.9
  Feb 25, 2025 49   @ Cincinnati L 67-69 54%     15 - 12 8 - 9 +11.8 +14.5 -3.0
  Mar 01, 2025 87   Oklahoma St. W 71-61 86%     16 - 12 9 - 9 +13.3 -2.2 +15.0
  Mar 04, 2025 74   @ TCU W 61-58 67%     17 - 12 10 - 9 +13.3 +9.1 +4.8
  Mar 08, 2025 4   Houston L 61-65 30%     17 - 13 10 - 10 +16.0 +10.9 +4.3
Projected Record 17 - 13 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10 100.0% 86.8% 2.3% 84.4% 9.6 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.3 2.5 8.0 17.1 33.2 22.7 0.3 13.2 86.4%
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 86.8% 2.3% 84.4% 9.6 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.3 2.5 8.0 17.1 33.2 22.7 0.3 13.2 86.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.3% 100.0% 5.3 3.4 16.3 41.2 23.6 14.2 1.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 5.8% 99.8% 7.6 3.3 11.2 27.3 43.5 13.8 0.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 12.9% 97.4% 8.9 0.2 0.5 4.1 27.2 41.6 22.4 1.5
Lose Out 31.1% 81.2% 10.3 1.2 8.7 35.4 35.1 0.8