Utah
Big 12
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.5#66
Expected Predictive Rating+3.9#108
Pace74.0#59
Improvement-2.2#310

Offense
Total Offense+4.0#75
First Shot+0.8#158
After Offensive Rebound+3.2#24
Layup/Dunks+2.1#109
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#317
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.3#105
Freethrows-1.1#250
Improvement-2.2#327

Defense
Total Defense+4.6#61
First Shot+3.2#81
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#71
Layups/Dunks+3.6#65
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#93
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#272
Freethrows+0.5#150
Improvement+0.0#184
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.6% 2.7% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.4% 26.4% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.9% 25.9% 12.3%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 9.2
.500 or above 60.4% 74.1% 50.8%
.500 or above in Conference 27.5% 33.0% 23.7%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 10.9% 8.3% 12.8%
First Four3.9% 5.2% 3.0%
First Round16.3% 23.7% 11.1%
Second Round7.6% 11.3% 5.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.9% 1.2%
Elite Eight0.7% 1.1% 0.5%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Iowa (Neutral) - 41.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 24 - 47 - 15
Quad 32 - 19 - 16
Quad 48 - 017 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 342   Alcorn St. W 100-59 97%     1 - 0 +26.6 +25.7 +3.3
  Nov 07, 2024 339   Central Arkansas W 98-63 97%     2 - 0 +20.7 +10.1 +7.3
  Nov 12, 2024 270   Queens W 96-65 94%     3 - 0 +22.3 +10.2 +9.5
  Nov 17, 2024 28   Mississippi St. L 73-78 32%     3 - 1 +8.3 +3.1 +5.3
  Nov 22, 2024 287   Utah Tech W 84-53 95%     4 - 1 +21.2 -1.6 +20.1
  Nov 26, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 94-48 99%     5 - 1 +21.8 +18.1 +6.9
  Nov 30, 2024 254   Eastern Washington W 88-80 93%     6 - 1 -0.1 +9.6 -9.6
  Dec 07, 2024 43   St. Mary's L 63-72 53%     6 - 2 -1.2 -4.8 +3.5
  Dec 14, 2024 204   Radford W 81-63 89%     7 - 2 +13.0 +5.7 +7.6
  Dec 17, 2024 357   Florida A&M W 89-59 98%     8 - 2 +13.3 +9.8 +3.3
  Dec 21, 2024 42   Iowa L 81-83 41%    
  Dec 31, 2024 12   @ Baylor L 70-81 16%    
  Jan 04, 2025 24   Texas Tech L 73-75 41%    
  Jan 07, 2025 5   @ Iowa St. L 71-85 10%    
  Jan 11, 2025 97   Oklahoma St. W 81-75 71%    
  Jan 15, 2025 88   @ TCU L 72-73 47%    
  Jan 18, 2025 40   BYU W 78-77 50%    
  Jan 21, 2025 6   @ Houston L 61-75 10%    
  Jan 25, 2025 12   Baylor L 73-78 34%    
  Jan 28, 2025 26   Cincinnati L 71-73 42%    
  Feb 01, 2025 97   @ Oklahoma St. L 77-78 50%    
  Feb 05, 2025 75   Colorado W 76-72 65%    
  Feb 08, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 70-76 29%    
  Feb 11, 2025 26   @ Cincinnati L 68-76 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 10   Kansas L 73-79 31%    
  Feb 17, 2025 68   Kansas St. W 76-73 61%    
  Feb 23, 2025 84   @ Central Florida L 74-75 46%    
  Feb 26, 2025 17   @ Arizona L 74-84 19%    
  Mar 01, 2025 62   Arizona St. W 77-74 60%    
  Mar 04, 2025 39   West Virginia L 72-73 49%    
  Mar 08, 2025 40   @ BYU L 75-81 30%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 3rd
4th 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 2.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.1 1.8 0.7 0.0 3.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.8 2.6 1.3 0.1 0.0 4.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.9 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.3 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.8 3.9 0.9 0.0 7.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.0 4.7 2.0 0.1 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.7 3.3 0.4 0.0 9.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.9 4.6 1.0 0.0 10.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.7 5.2 1.8 0.1 10.1 12th
13th 0.1 1.9 4.9 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.9 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.0 3.0 0.6 0.0 9.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.0 2.7 0.7 0.0 7.8 15th
16th 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.1 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0 6.0 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.4 6.2 9.3 12.0 13.7 13.6 12.4 10.2 7.3 4.8 2.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 77.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 48.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 19.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 8.3% 91.7% 4.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 14.7% 85.3% 4.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.6% 100.0% 5.5% 94.5% 6.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.5% 98.2% 4.5% 93.8% 7.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.2%
13-7 2.8% 91.5% 3.8% 87.7% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.2 91.1%
12-8 4.8% 78.9% 2.0% 76.9% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.0 78.5%
11-9 7.3% 59.7% 0.9% 58.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.5 1.0 0.0 2.9 59.3%
10-10 10.2% 34.4% 0.7% 33.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 1.1 1.4 0.1 6.7 33.9%
9-11 12.4% 11.8% 0.4% 11.4% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.1 10.9 11.5%
8-12 13.6% 1.9% 0.1% 1.8% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 13.4 1.8%
7-13 13.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.7 0.1%
6-14 12.0% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 11.9
5-15 9.3% 9.3
4-16 6.2% 6.2
3-17 3.4% 3.4
2-18 1.4% 1.4
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 18.4% 0.6% 17.8% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.6 3.0 3.8 4.1 3.9 0.3 81.6 17.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%