Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#61
Expected Predictive Rating+11.8#48
Pace70.5#117
Improvement-2.4#290

Offense
Total Offense+2.6#106
First Shot+2.1#113
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#142
Layup/Dunks-3.0#289
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#88
Freethrows+0.7#132
Improvement-2.7#316

Defense
Total Defense+6.4#38
First Shot+3.8#68
After Offensive Rebounds+2.6#20
Layups/Dunks+3.3#65
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#190
Freethrows+2.1#51
Improvement+0.3#173
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.2% 23.8% 10.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 18.1% 23.7% 10.3%
Average Seed 10.1 10.0 10.4
.500 or above 58.1% 72.1% 38.6%
.500 or above in Conference 4.7% 7.2% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.7% 0.6% 3.3%
First Four9.6% 11.6% 6.8%
First Round13.1% 17.7% 6.6%
Second Round5.2% 7.4% 2.1%
Sweet Sixteen1.3% 1.9% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas St. (Home) - 58.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 92 - 9
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 12
Quad 25 - 39 - 15
Quad 34 - 113 - 16
Quad 43 - 016 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 234   Idaho St. W 55-48 92%     1 - 0 +0.3 -18.8 +19.5
  Nov 08, 2024 64   Santa Clara W 81-74 52%     2 - 0 +15.5 +10.8 +4.6
  Nov 10, 2024 11   @ Gonzaga L 80-88 15%     2 - 1 +12.2 +12.3 +0.1
  Nov 14, 2024 74   Grand Canyon W 87-76 56%     3 - 1 +18.5 +14.4 +3.5
  Nov 17, 2024 119   St. Thomas W 81-66 80%     4 - 1 +14.9 +6.3 +8.9
  Nov 20, 2024 276   Cal Poly W 93-89 94%     5 - 1 -4.9 +4.2 -9.5
  Nov 28, 2024 40   New Mexico W 85-82 39%     6 - 1 +14.9 +16.0 -1.3
  Nov 29, 2024 31   St. Mary's W 68-64 31%     7 - 1 +18.1 +5.7 +12.5
  Dec 03, 2024 311   San Diego W 90-53 96%     8 - 1 +25.9 +7.6 +15.9
  Dec 14, 2024 4   Florida L 66-83 15%     8 - 2 +2.9 -2.8 +6.9
  Dec 21, 2024 152   Massachusetts W 78-62 78%     9 - 2 +16.7 +5.3 +11.0
  Dec 31, 2024 33   @ BYU L 56-76 24%     9 - 3 0 - 1 -3.8 -6.3 +0.8
  Jan 04, 2025 98   Colorado W 81-61 74%     10 - 3 1 - 1 +22.4 +8.6 +13.4
  Jan 08, 2025 7   @ Kansas L 55-74 12%     10 - 4 1 - 2 +2.5 -3.1 +4.7
  Jan 11, 2025 20   Baylor L 66-72 OT 34%     10 - 5 1 - 3 +7.3 -2.1 +9.4
  Jan 14, 2025 62   Central Florida L 89-95 60%     10 - 6 1 - 4 +0.5 +13.3 -12.6
  Jan 18, 2025 59   @ Cincinnati L 60-67 38%     10 - 7 1 - 5 +5.2 +0.6 +4.2
  Jan 21, 2025 39   @ West Virginia W 65-57 30%     11 - 7 2 - 5 +22.4 +9.3 +14.0
  Jan 25, 2025 8   Iowa St. L 61-76 26%     11 - 8 2 - 6 +0.5 -2.5 +2.9
  Jan 28, 2025 98   @ Colorado W 70-68 56%     12 - 8 3 - 6 +9.4 +1.9 +7.5
  Feb 01, 2025 10   Arizona L 72-81 27%     12 - 9 3 - 7 +6.3 +1.2 +5.7
  Feb 04, 2025 55   Kansas St. W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 09, 2025 102   @ Oklahoma St. W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 12, 2025 12   @ Texas Tech L 66-77 14%    
  Feb 15, 2025 68   TCU W 70-66 65%    
  Feb 18, 2025 3   Houston L 59-70 16%    
  Feb 23, 2025 55   @ Kansas St. L 70-73 36%    
  Feb 26, 2025 33   BYU L 73-75 43%    
  Mar 01, 2025 84   @ Utah L 73-74 46%    
  Mar 04, 2025 10   @ Arizona L 70-81 14%    
  Mar 08, 2025 12   Texas Tech L 68-74 31%    
Projected Record 16 - 15 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.1 0.9 0.5 0.0 1.5 7th
8th 0.2 1.8 1.5 0.3 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 4.8 0.9 0.0 8.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.7 7.2 2.9 0.1 0.0 11.9 10th
11th 0.6 7.3 6.2 0.4 14.4 11th
12th 0.2 4.7 9.9 1.6 0.0 16.4 12th
13th 0.1 2.8 10.6 4.3 0.1 17.9 13th
14th 0.0 1.9 7.8 5.6 0.5 15.8 14th
15th 0.9 4.1 3.7 0.7 9.3 15th
16th 0.1 0.2 0.3 16th
Total 1.1 6.2 14.5 22.2 23.7 17.6 10.1 3.5 1.1 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0
11-9 1.1% 95.4% 0.9% 94.5% 8.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.1 95.4%
10-10 3.5% 91.9% 0.3% 91.6% 8.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.3 91.9%
9-11 10.1% 67.0% 0.3% 66.7% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.4 3.1 0.1 3.3 66.9%
8-12 17.6% 32.4% 0.2% 32.2% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 4.3 0.5 11.9 32.3%
7-13 23.7% 5.7% 0.1% 5.6% 11.1 0.0 0.1 1.0 0.3 22.3 5.6%
6-14 22.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 11.0 0.1 22.1 0.2%
5-15 14.5% 14.5
4-16 6.2% 6.2
3-17 1.1% 1.1
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.2% 0.1% 18.1% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.5 4.0 8.7 0.8 81.8 18.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.1%