Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.0#62
Expected Predictive Rating+16.9#18
Pace71.5#107
Improvement+0.1#174

Offense
Total Offense+3.8#80
First Shot+3.5#84
After Offensive Rebound+0.3#164
Layup/Dunks-4.1#315
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#89
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.8#68
Freethrows+2.2#67
Improvement-0.8#250

Defense
Total Defense+5.2#50
First Shot+2.8#91
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#34
Layups/Dunks+3.8#59
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.0#342
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#210
Freethrows+2.4#43
Improvement+0.8#123
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.3% 0.3% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.3% 2.5% 1.0%
Top 6 Seed 8.5% 9.4% 3.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.9% 42.7% 26.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.5% 42.3% 26.0%
Average Seed 8.4 8.3 8.8
.500 or above 68.7% 72.9% 47.9%
.500 or above in Conference 30.6% 32.3% 22.2%
Conference Champion 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 9.7% 8.7% 14.5%
First Four8.2% 8.5% 6.9%
First Round35.4% 38.1% 22.2%
Second Round17.3% 18.8% 9.7%
Sweet Sixteen5.0% 5.6% 2.4%
Elite Eight1.6% 1.8% 0.8%
Final Four0.5% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Massachusetts (Neutral) - 83.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 44 - 11
Quad 26 - 310 - 14
Quad 34 - 114 - 15
Quad 44 - 017 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 251   Idaho St. W 55-48 93%     1 - 0 -1.0 -16.6 +16.0
  Nov 08, 2024 72   Santa Clara W 81-74 55%     2 - 0 +14.6 +10.9 +3.7
  Nov 10, 2024 4   @ Gonzaga L 80-88 10%     2 - 1 +15.1 +14.3 +0.9
  Nov 14, 2024 102   Grand Canyon W 87-76 65%     3 - 1 +16.1 +12.4 +3.0
  Nov 17, 2024 142   St. Thomas W 81-66 85%     4 - 1 +12.8 +6.3 +6.7
  Nov 20, 2024 265   Cal Poly W 93-89 94%     5 - 1 -4.6 +4.7 -9.8
  Nov 28, 2024 70   New Mexico W 85-82 53%     6 - 1 +11.2 +11.9 -0.8
  Nov 29, 2024 43   St. Mary's W 68-64 43%     7 - 1 +14.8 +3.6 +11.4
  Dec 03, 2024 319   San Diego W 90-53 96%     8 - 1 +25.2 +8.5 +14.2
  Dec 14, 2024 7   Florida L 66-83 19%     8 - 2 +1.1 -4.6 +6.9
  Dec 21, 2024 191   Massachusetts W 81-71 83%    
  Dec 31, 2024 40   @ BYU L 74-79 30%    
  Jan 04, 2025 75   Colorado W 74-70 66%    
  Jan 08, 2025 10   @ Kansas L 69-80 15%    
  Jan 11, 2025 12   Baylor L 72-76 35%    
  Jan 14, 2025 84   Central Florida W 76-71 69%    
  Jan 18, 2025 26   @ Cincinnati L 66-74 24%    
  Jan 21, 2025 39   @ West Virginia L 68-74 30%    
  Jan 25, 2025 5   Iowa St. L 73-80 25%    
  Jan 28, 2025 75   @ Colorado L 71-73 45%    
  Feb 01, 2025 17   Arizona L 76-79 39%    
  Feb 04, 2025 68   Kansas St. W 75-71 63%    
  Feb 09, 2025 97   @ Oklahoma St. W 77-76 52%    
  Feb 12, 2025 24   @ Texas Tech L 69-77 23%    
  Feb 15, 2025 88   TCU W 74-68 69%    
  Feb 18, 2025 6   Houston L 63-70 26%    
  Feb 23, 2025 68   @ Kansas St. L 72-74 42%    
  Feb 26, 2025 40   BYU W 77-76 52%    
  Mar 01, 2025 66   @ Utah L 74-77 40%    
  Mar 04, 2025 17   @ Arizona L 73-82 20%    
  Mar 08, 2025 24   Texas Tech L 72-74 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.4 0.5 0.0 3.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.2 2.3 0.9 0.1 0.0 4.5 5th
6th 0.1 0.9 2.7 1.6 0.2 0.0 5.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 3.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.1 1.1 0.1 0.0 8.2 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 4.7 2.1 0.2 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 4.7 3.5 0.4 0.0 9.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 3.7 4.5 1.0 0.0 9.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.5 5.0 1.8 0.1 9.7 12th
13th 0.1 1.6 4.5 2.6 0.3 0.0 9.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 3.0 0.6 0.0 8.4 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.7 2.6 0.7 0.0 7.4 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 5.3 16th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.1 5.3 8.6 11.5 13.2 13.4 12.7 10.5 8.0 5.7 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 88.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 77.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 44.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 17.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 100.0% 7.5% 92.5% 2.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.4% 100.0% 9.7% 90.3% 3.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.8% 100.0% 6.7% 93.3% 4.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.9% 100.0% 6.8% 93.2% 4.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-7 3.3% 99.8% 2.3% 97.5% 6.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.8%
12-8 5.7% 99.0% 1.4% 97.6% 7.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.6 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.0%
11-9 8.0% 95.4% 1.3% 94.1% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 2.1 1.9 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.4 95.3%
10-10 10.5% 86.4% 0.6% 85.8% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 2.8 2.3 1.1 0.0 1.4 86.4%
9-11 12.7% 58.7% 0.6% 58.0% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.0 3.5 0.3 5.3 58.4%
8-12 13.4% 24.4% 0.2% 24.1% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 0.6 0.0 10.1 24.2%
7-13 13.2% 3.6% 0.1% 3.5% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 12.7 3.6%
6-14 11.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.4 0.2%
5-15 8.6% 8.6
4-16 5.3% 5.3
3-17 3.1% 3.1
2-18 1.3% 1.3
1-19 0.4% 0.4
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 39.9% 0.7% 39.3% 8.4 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.3 3.9 4.9 5.9 6.6 5.8 7.2 1.1 0.0 60.1 39.5%