Kansas St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.1 #85
Expected Predictive Rating +6.3 #87
Pace 78.4 #16
Improvement -4.3 #342

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #78 A- B C C- B
Defense #97 B D- B- B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #61 1.28 #62 +5.3 #25
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #279 0.69 #275 -2.0 #285
Three Pointers 41% #182 1.17 #20 +3.1 #84
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #35 +6.4 #32
Freethrows 16.0 #255 73% #180 11.7 #237
Second Chance 34.6% #69 1.12 #93 0.39 #62
Turnovers 16.3% #165
Total Offense +4.3 #78

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #200 1.06 #67 +2.1 #107
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #131 0.74 #147 -0.1 #187
Three Pointers 40% #210 0.93 #79 +2.2 #108
1st FG Attempt 0.94 #65 +4.2 #57
Freethrows 15.5 #91 69% #48 10.7 #67
Second Chance 31.8% #240 1.21 #343 0.38 #322
Turnovers 17.7% #97
Total Defense +2.8 #97

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.8% #63 -0.3% #133
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.1% #41 -7.4% #57
Possession Length 15.0 #20 17.9 #272
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.28 #8 0.15 #109
Improvement -3.8 #346 -0.5 #220

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 4.1% 0.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.5% 4.1% 0.7%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 10.5
.500 or above 12.8% 26.5% 8.3%
.500 or above in Conference 1.2% 3.4% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 35.1% 17.5% 40.9%
First Four0.9% 2.2% 0.5%
First Round1.0% 2.8% 0.5%
Second Round0.3% 0.9% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas (Home) - 24.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 42 - 12
Quad 24 - 57 - 17
Quad 32 - 19 - 18
Quad 45 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 294 UNC Greensboro W 93 - 64 94% +7  1 - 0 +18 +1 B+ A- F +14 A B- A+
 Sat, Nov 8 300 Bellarmine W 98 - 71 94% +11  2 - 0 +16 +14 A+ A+ F +2 A+ F C+
 Thu, Nov 13 75 California W 99 - 96 59% +14  3 - 0 +8 +18 A+ A+ F -11 F F A+
 Mon, Nov 17 70 Tulsa W 84 - 83 58% +3  4 - 0 +6 +4 D+ A+ A- +2 A+ C D
 Thu, Nov 20 76 Mississippi St. W 98 - 77 48% +8  5 - 0 +29 +23 A+ D+ A +4 B- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 14 Nebraska L 85 - 86 15% -4  5 - 1 +17 +15 A+ A+ B+ +2 D+ D A-
 Tue, Nov 25 37 @Indiana L 69 - 86 19% -13  5 - 2 -1 -3 A+ F F +3 C C- A+
 Mon, Dec 1 129 Bowling Green L 66 - 82 78% -9  5 - 3 -17 -1 F A+ A+ -18 D+ F D-
 Sat, Dec 6 56 Seton Hall L 67 - 78 50% -8  5 - 4 -4 -4 C D+ C+ +2 A+ F C
 Mon, Dec 8 365 Mississippi Valley W 108 - 49 100% +35  6 - 4 +32 +17 A+ A F +10 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 13 44 @Creighton W 83 - 76 24% +8  7 - 4 +21 +19 B+ A+ A+ +3 A+ C F
 Sat, Dec 20 283 South Dakota W 106 - 76 93% +22  8 - 4 +20 +19 A+ B+ C -1 A- D+ D-
 Sun, Dec 28 361 Louisiana Monroe W 94 - 85 98% +6  9 - 4 -10 +0 C F D+ -11 F B+ B
 Sat, Jan 3 12 BYU L 73 - 83 21% -6  9 - 5 0 - 1 +6 -0 B+ F B+ +7 A+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 7 2 @Arizona L 76 - 101 5% -14  9 - 6 0 - 2 +1 +5 D- B- A+ +0 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 88 @Arizona St. L 84 - 87 41% -0  9 - 7 0 - 3 +6 +7 F A A- +0 A+ F A+
 Wed, Jan 14 53 Central Florida L 73 - 82 48% -7  9 - 8 0 - 4 -1 -2 C C C +1 C A+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 61 @Oklahoma St. L 83 - 84 32% -2  9 - 9 0 - 5 +11 +14 A+ A+ F -3 A+ F F
 Tue, Jan 20 104 Utah W 81 - 78 70% +2  10 - 9 1 - 5 +5 +7 A+ F C -3 B- F D+
 Sat, Jan 24 19 Kansas L 75 - 82 25%
 Tue, Jan 27 52 @West Virginia L 70 - 77 27%
 Sun, Feb 1 8 Iowa St. L 75 - 85 17%
 Sat, Feb 7 45 @TCU L 74 - 81 26%
 Wed, Feb 11 49 Cincinnati L 75 - 76 47%
 Sat, Feb 14 4 @Houston L 65 - 83 5%
 Tue, Feb 17 41 Baylor L 82 - 84 42%
 Sat, Feb 21 15 @Texas Tech L 74 - 88 10%
 Wed, Feb 25 78 @Colorado L 81 - 84 37%
 Sat, Feb 28 45 TCU L 77 - 78 45%
 Tue, Mar 3 52 West Virginia L 73 - 74 48%
 Sat, Mar 7 19 @Kansas L 72 - 85 11%
Totals 13 - 18 4 - 14 +7 +4 A- B C +3 B D- B-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.7 7th
8th 0.3 1.1 0.3 0.0 1.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.6 1.2 0.1 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 4.6 10th
11th 0.5 4.6 1.9 0.1 7.1 11th
12th 0.2 4.0 5.1 0.4 9.7 12th
13th 0.1 2.5 8.5 2.3 0.0 13.3 13th
14th 0.1 2.2 10.0 6.0 0.3 18.6 14th
15th 0.1 2.8 10.3 9.1 1.2 0.0 23.5 15th
16th 2.6 7.4 6.3 1.3 0.0 17.6 16th
Total 2.7 10.3 18.8 23.1 20.2 13.6 7.1 3.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.2% 90.0% 90.0% 9.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 90.0%
9-9 1.0% 61.6% 61.6% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.4 61.6%
8-10 3.0% 20.8% 0.2% 20.6% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 2.4 20.6%
7-11 7.1% 2.1% 0.1% 2.0% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.0 2.0%
6-12 13.6% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 13.5 0.1%
5-13 20.2% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 20.2
4-14 23.1% 23.1
3-15 18.8% 18.8
2-16 10.3% 10.3
1-17 2.7% 2.7
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 0.0% 1.5% 10.3 98.4 1.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.7%