Kansas St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.8#59
Expected Predictive Rating+8.5#70
Pace68.3#177
Improvement+2.5#88

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#104
First Shot+1.0#134
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#92
Layup/Dunks+1.8#118
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#288
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#97
Freethrows-1.3#266
Improvement-3.8#334

Defense
Total Defense+7.2#28
First Shot+6.7#20
After Offensive Rebounds+0.5#131
Layups/Dunks+3.4#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#96
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#175
Freethrows+1.8#63
Improvement+6.3#5
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.0% 3.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.8% 2.6% 0.0%
Average Seed 11.1 11.1 n/a
.500 or above 5.1% 16.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.8% 2.6% 0.0%
First Round0.5% 1.4% 0.0%
Second Round0.1% 0.4% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b4 - 25 - 10
Quad 22 - 67 - 15
Quad 33 - 210 - 17
Quad 45 - 015 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 354   New Orleans W 89-65 98%     1 - 0 +7.5 +10.6 -2.0
  Nov 09, 2024 171   Cleveland St. W 77-64 89%     2 - 0 +9.6 +5.0 +4.8
  Nov 14, 2024 80   LSU L 65-76 70%     2 - 1 -6.7 -2.9 -4.1
  Nov 19, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 74-56 99.8%    3 - 1 -12.9 -7.9 -4.0
  Nov 22, 2024 113   George Washington W 83-71 73%     4 - 1 +15.3 +10.4 +4.5
  Nov 24, 2024 71   Liberty L 65-67 58%     4 - 2 +5.8 +4.1 +1.6
  Nov 25, 2024 226   Longwood W 80-64 89%     5 - 2 +12.6 +4.3 +8.2
  Dec 01, 2024 363   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 120-73 99%     6 - 2 +25.8 +20.9 -1.1
  Dec 07, 2024 13   @ St. John's L 71-88 16%     6 - 3 +3.5 +6.4 -1.5
  Dec 17, 2024 66   Drake L 70-73 OT 66%     6 - 4 +2.5 +4.5 -2.3
  Dec 21, 2024 126   @ Wichita St. L 65-84 68%     6 - 5 -14.2 -4.6 -9.5
  Dec 30, 2024 49   Cincinnati W 70-67 56%     7 - 5 1 - 0 +11.3 +5.2 +6.2
  Jan 04, 2025 74   @ TCU L 62-63 48%     7 - 6 1 - 1 +9.3 +2.4 +6.8
  Jan 07, 2025 87   @ Oklahoma St. L 66-79 54%     7 - 7 1 - 2 -4.2 +0.7 -5.2
  Jan 11, 2025 4   Houston L 57-87 17%     7 - 8 1 - 3 -10.0 -3.1 -8.2
  Jan 14, 2025 7   Texas Tech L 57-61 24%     7 - 9 1 - 4 +13.0 -1.1 +13.5
  Jan 18, 2025 18   @ Kansas L 74-84 18%     7 - 10 1 - 5 +9.6 +19.7 -11.1
  Jan 22, 2025 27   @ Baylor L 62-70 23%     7 - 11 1 - 6 +9.5 +9.4 -1.7
  Jan 25, 2025 43   West Virginia W 73-60 53%     8 - 11 2 - 6 +22.0 +12.5 +10.2
  Jan 29, 2025 87   Oklahoma St. W 85-57 73%     9 - 11 3 - 6 +31.3 +13.4 +17.2
  Feb 01, 2025 10   @ Iowa St. W 80-61 14%     10 - 11 4 - 6 +40.4 +19.6 +20.8
  Feb 04, 2025 73   @ Arizona St. W 71-70 48%     11 - 11 5 - 6 +11.3 +8.8 +2.5
  Feb 08, 2025 18   Kansas W 81-73 34%     12 - 11 6 - 6 +22.1 +13.9 +7.8
  Feb 11, 2025 12   Arizona W 73-70 30%     13 - 11 7 - 6 +18.2 -0.1 +18.0
  Feb 15, 2025 20   @ BYU L 65-80 19%     13 - 12 7 - 7 +4.2 +2.3 +1.1
  Feb 17, 2025 64   @ Utah L 69-74 43%     13 - 13 7 - 8 +6.5 +2.7 +3.7
  Feb 23, 2025 73   Arizona St. L 54-66 69%     13 - 14 7 - 9 -7.2 -13.5 +5.6
  Feb 26, 2025 78   @ Central Florida L 76-80 49%     13 - 15 7 - 10 +6.1 +5.0 +1.2
  Mar 02, 2025 86   Colorado W 65-56 72%     14 - 15 8 - 10 +12.8 -4.2 +16.9
  Mar 05, 2025 49   @ Cincinnati W 54-49 35%     15 - 15 9 - 10 +18.8 -3.2 +22.6
  Mar 08, 2025 10   Iowa St. L 57-73 28%     15 - 16 9 - 11 -0.1 -6.1 +6.0
  Mar 11, 2025 73   Arizona St. W 73-71 59%    
Projected Record 16 - 16 9 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 100.0 100.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 100.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 100.0% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 99.1 0.8%
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 99.1 0.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1% 43.0% 11.3 31.8 11.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.9% 6.7% 11.4 3.8 2.8
Lose Out 68.9%