Kansas St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+8.3#68
Expected Predictive Rating+2.4#131
Pace68.7#188
Improvement+0.7#134

Offense
Total Offense+3.9#79
First Shot+1.5#131
After Offensive Rebound+2.4#52
Layup/Dunks+2.9#80
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#301
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.8#93
Freethrows-2.0#293
Improvement+0.4#149

Defense
Total Defense+4.4#70
First Shot+4.5#55
After Offensive Rebounds-0.1#193
Layups/Dunks+3.0#75
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#100
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#257
Freethrows+2.2#49
Improvement+0.4#155
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 1.2% 1.8% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.1% 17.4% 7.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 12.7% 16.9% 7.2%
Average Seed 9.0 8.9 9.4
.500 or above 31.1% 40.6% 18.9%
.500 or above in Conference 22.9% 26.7% 18.1%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 11.9% 17.2%
First Four3.2% 3.9% 2.2%
First Round11.5% 15.4% 6.5%
Second Round5.5% 7.5% 3.0%
Sweet Sixteen1.5% 2.1% 0.8%
Elite Eight0.6% 0.8% 0.3%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Wichita St. (Away) - 56.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 71 - 7
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 11
Quad 24 - 57 - 17
Quad 33 - 110 - 18
Quad 44 - 014 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 05, 2024 345   New Orleans W 89-65 97%     1 - 0 +9.1 +12.8 -2.6
  Nov 09, 2024 224   Cleveland St. W 77-64 91%     2 - 0 +6.8 +3.0 +3.9
  Nov 14, 2024 56   LSU L 65-76 57%     2 - 1 -4.4 -2.7 -1.9
  Nov 19, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 74-56 99%     3 - 1 -6.2 -4.3 -0.9
  Nov 22, 2024 137   George Washington W 83-71 75%     4 - 1 +13.4 +6.9 +6.0
  Nov 24, 2024 81   Liberty L 65-67 55%     4 - 2 +5.0 +3.1 +1.7
  Nov 25, 2024 194   Longwood W 80-64 82%     5 - 2 +14.5 +7.3 +7.1
  Dec 01, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 120-73 99%     6 - 2 +26.7 +18.9 +1.8
  Dec 07, 2024 12   @ St. John's L 71-88 16%     6 - 3 +2.2 +1.5 +2.1
  Dec 17, 2024 66   Drake L 70-73 OT 61%     6 - 4 +2.5 +5.4 -3.1
  Dec 21, 2024 110   @ Wichita St. W 75-73 56%    
  Dec 30, 2024 26   Cincinnati L 69-71 42%    
  Jan 04, 2025 88   @ TCU L 69-70 46%    
  Jan 07, 2025 96   @ Oklahoma St. L 74-75 49%    
  Jan 11, 2025 6   Houston L 62-70 24%    
  Jan 14, 2025 24   Texas Tech L 70-73 40%    
  Jan 18, 2025 10   @ Kansas L 67-79 14%    
  Jan 22, 2025 13   @ Baylor L 68-79 16%    
  Jan 25, 2025 39   West Virginia L 70-71 49%    
  Jan 29, 2025 96   Oklahoma St. W 78-72 69%    
  Feb 01, 2025 5   @ Iowa St. L 68-82 10%    
  Feb 04, 2025 63   @ Arizona St. L 71-75 37%    
  Feb 08, 2025 10   Kansas L 70-76 30%    
  Feb 11, 2025 16   Arizona L 75-79 36%    
  Feb 15, 2025 40   @ BYU L 72-78 30%    
  Feb 17, 2025 67   @ Utah L 73-76 39%    
  Feb 23, 2025 63   Arizona St. W 74-72 58%    
  Feb 26, 2025 83   @ Central Florida L 72-73 45%    
  Mar 02, 2025 75   Colorado W 73-69 63%    
  Mar 05, 2025 26   @ Cincinnati L 66-74 23%    
  Mar 08, 2025 5   Iowa St. L 71-79 24%    
Projected Record 14 - 17 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.5 0.0 3.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.0 1.1 0.1 4.1 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 2.5 2.2 0.3 0.0 5.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.4 0.8 0.0 6.8 8th
9th 0.1 1.8 4.3 1.7 0.1 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.5 3.1 0.4 9.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.6 4.0 4.4 0.9 0.0 9.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.9 5.4 1.8 0.1 0.0 10.5 12th
13th 0.2 2.0 5.3 2.9 0.3 0.0 10.6 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 1.5 4.6 3.4 0.6 0.0 10.3 14th
15th 0.0 0.2 1.5 3.7 3.2 0.8 0.0 9.5 15th
16th 0.1 0.7 1.8 2.7 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0 8.1 16th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.3 7.6 10.7 13.0 14.1 13.1 11.4 8.9 6.2 3.9 2.2 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 73.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 51.1% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 20.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 3.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.0% 100.0% 100.0% 3.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 0.2% 100.0% 7.8% 92.2% 4.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 0.5% 100.0% 5.8% 94.2% 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-6 1.1% 98.9% 6.6% 92.3% 7.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 98.9%
13-7 2.2% 92.5% 3.3% 89.2% 7.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.2 92.3%
12-8 3.9% 80.1% 1.6% 78.6% 8.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.8 79.8%
11-9 6.2% 54.6% 0.9% 53.7% 9.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 1.1 0.1 2.8 54.2%
10-10 8.9% 24.7% 0.6% 24.1% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 0.2 6.7 24.2%
9-11 11.4% 4.6% 0.5% 4.1% 10.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.1 10.9 4.1%
8-12 13.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.1 0.3%
7-13 14.1% 0.1% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 14.1
6-14 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 13.0
5-15 10.7% 10.7
4-16 7.6% 7.6
3-17 4.3% 4.3
2-18 2.0% 2.0
1-19 0.7% 0.7
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 13.1% 0.5% 12.6% 9.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.3 2.6 3.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 86.9 12.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%