Tulsa
American Athletic
2023-24 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-4.9#251
Expected Predictive Rating-10.3#324
Pace69.9#151
Improvement-0.3#195

Offense
Total Offense-2.6#241
First Shot-2.1#240
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#215
Layup/Dunks-3.2#294
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#203
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#163
Freethrows+1.1#110
Improvement-0.9#261

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#244
First Shot+1.5#122
After Offensive Rebounds-3.8#359
Layups/Dunks+0.1#166
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.6#304
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.7#46
Freethrows-0.7#232
Improvement+0.7#138
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.8 16.0
.500 or above 3.3% 3.4% 0.2%
.500 or above in Conference 11.8% 12.0% 5.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 33.2% 32.7% 45.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mississippi Valley (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 50 - 6
Quad 33 - 93 - 15
Quad 47 - 610 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 362   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 103-80 92%     1 - 0 +2.7 +9.2 -8.3
  Nov 13, 2024 297   Oral Roberts W 85-76 69%     2 - 0 -1.1 +7.0 -7.9
  Nov 16, 2024 192   @ Missouri St. L 106-111 3OT 27%     2 - 1 -3.4 +0.4 -2.2
  Nov 20, 2024 244   Arkansas Little Rock L 57-71 61%     2 - 2 -21.7 -10.0 -13.2
  Nov 23, 2024 106   @ Loyola Chicago L 53-89 13%     2 - 3 -28.7 -16.2 -11.3
  Nov 26, 2024 321   Detroit Mercy W 63-44 66%     3 - 3 +9.9 -8.0 +19.6
  Nov 27, 2024 263   Georgia St. L 71-74 52%     3 - 4 -8.5 -4.1 -4.4
  Dec 04, 2024 96   Oklahoma St. L 55-76 24%     3 - 5 -18.4 -18.8 +1.3
  Dec 07, 2024 221   Southern L 66-70 54%     3 - 6 -9.8 -2.1 -8.0
  Dec 14, 2024 83   Central Florida L 75-88 14%     3 - 7 -6.2 +8.3 -14.8
  Dec 21, 2024 364   Mississippi Valley W 77-58 96%    
  Jan 01, 2025 196   Rice L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 130   @ UAB L 73-83 18%    
  Jan 07, 2025 228   @ Texas San Antonio L 75-79 34%    
  Jan 11, 2025 191   Charlotte L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 18, 2025 179   @ South Florida L 70-77 27%    
  Jan 21, 2025 162   East Carolina L 68-70 45%    
  Jan 26, 2025 110   Wichita St. L 72-78 30%    
  Jan 29, 2025 130   UAB L 76-80 37%    
  Feb 02, 2025 202   @ Tulane L 70-76 29%    
  Feb 05, 2025 37   @ Memphis L 68-88 3%    
  Feb 08, 2025 85   Florida Atlantic L 76-84 22%    
  Feb 12, 2025 119   @ Temple L 67-78 17%    
  Feb 15, 2025 228   Texas San Antonio W 78-76 56%    
  Feb 19, 2025 72   @ North Texas L 55-71 8%    
  Feb 22, 2025 196   @ Rice L 67-73 29%    
  Mar 01, 2025 202   Tulane W 73-72 50%    
  Mar 04, 2025 119   Temple L 70-75 35%    
  Mar 09, 2025 110   @ Wichita St. L 69-81 15%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 6 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 4th
5th 0.2 1.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 3.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 2.3 0.7 0.0 4.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 3.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 3.8 2.9 0.3 7.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.2 5.0 0.9 0.0 9.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.8 6.4 2.3 0.1 11.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 2.7 7.1 4.1 0.3 0.0 14.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.7 3.6 7.2 5.1 0.8 0.0 17.3 12th
13th 0.7 2.9 5.9 7.3 4.3 0.9 0.0 21.9 13th
Total 0.7 2.9 6.6 11.1 14.5 16.2 15.0 12.3 9.0 5.6 3.3 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 66.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-3 40.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-4 38.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 10.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.0% 0.0
14-4 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 0.3% 4.2% 4.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
12-6 0.7% 4.7% 4.7% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7
11-7 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
10-8 3.3% 0.4% 0.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 3.3
9-9 5.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.6 0.0 0.0 5.6
8-10 9.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 9.0
7-11 12.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.3
6-12 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 15.0
5-13 16.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 16.1
4-14 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.5
3-15 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 11.1
2-16 6.6% 6.6
1-17 2.9% 2.9
0-18 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%