Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +8.1 #70
Expected Predictive Rating +9.5 #62
Pace 68.7 #189
Improvement +1.1 #129

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #36 A B+ B+ A+ A+
Defense #165 C C C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #39 1.16 #179 +3.7 #64
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #354 0.89 #34 -3.9 #342
Three Pointers 46% #72 1.19 #13 +6.8 #20
1st FG Attempt 1.15 #29 +6.6 #29
Freethrows 20.0 #53 82% #3 16.4 #12
Second Chance 32.0% #145 1.24 #15 0.40 #47
Turnovers 14.1% #55
Total Offense +8.0 #36

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #222 1.19 #222 +0.2 #171
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #160 0.58 #8 +1.7 #64
Three Pointers 42% #153 1.05 #229 -1.2 #233
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #162 +0.7 #161
Freethrows 15.1 #74 75% #279 11.3 #103
Second Chance 25.7% #32 1.20 #340 0.31 #152
Turnovers 16.0% #207
Total Defense +0.1 #165

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.0% #10 -0.2% #142
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.5% #55 -1.1% #160
Possession Length 16.6 #105 17.9 #269
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #142 0.13 #61
Improvement +0.8 #136 +0.2 #172

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 25.5% 26.8% 20.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.7% 0.9% 0.2%
Average Seed 11.5 11.4 11.7
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 99.1% 99.5% 97.2%
Conference Champion 37.5% 41.9% 18.5%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
First Round25.3% 26.4% 20.4%
Second Round5.6% 6.0% 3.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.9% 0.9% 0.6%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Away) - 81.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 11 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 33 - 4
Quad 311 - 314 - 7
Quad 410 - 024 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 122 Rhode Island W 82 - 65 70% +9  1 - 0 +20 +18 A A+ C +2 B D+ A+
 Wed, Nov 12 321 @Oral Roberts W 88 - 87 91% -2  2 - 0 -6 +9 D+ B C- -15 F D F
 Mon, Nov 17 85 @Kansas St. L 83 - 84 42% -3  2 - 1 +9 +9 C- C+ A+ +1 A+ F F
 Fri, Nov 21 171 Austin Peay W 84 - 75 87% -2  3 - 1 +5 +14 A+ D+ A+ -8 F B D
 Tue, Nov 25 238 San Jose St. W 81 - 51 87% +13  4 - 1 +26 +16 A A+ A+ +14 A+ B A-
 Wed, Nov 26 110 Northern Iowa W 63 - 60 66% +3  5 - 1 +7 +4 B+ D B +3 A+ D+ C
 Sat, Dec 6 179 Missouri St. W 98 - 74 87% +14  6 - 1 +20 +27 A+ C A+ -6 F A A
 Wed, Dec 10 334 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 117 - 84 97% +16  7 - 1 +19 +26 A+ A+ B- -10 F D- C+
 Sat, Dec 13 133 New Mexico St. W 83 - 70 73% +13  8 - 1 +15 +9 A+ A+ F +5 A+ A B-
 Fri, Dec 19 162 @Western Kentucky W 82 - 81 70% -3  9 - 1 +4 +10 B D+ A+ -7 D+ C- D-
 Mon, Dec 22 280 Denver W 90 - 85 94% +4  10 - 1 -5 -2 F C+ B- -3 B+ F A+
 Wed, Dec 31 239 Rice W 97 - 48 92% +16  11 - 1 1 - 0 +42 +27 A+ A- B- +18 A+ A+ C+
 Sun, Jan 4 127 @North Texas L 67 - 72 61% +0  11 - 2 1 - 1 +0 +10 C- A+ C -11 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 74 South Florida L 78 - 93 63% -8  11 - 3 1 - 2 -10 +4 C F B -13 F D- C
 Wed, Jan 14 173 @Charlotte W 86 - 74 72% +10  12 - 3 2 - 2 +14 +16 A+ D+ F -2 C- A+ F
 Sun, Jan 18 117 @UAB W 99 - 77 59% +10  13 - 3 3 - 2 +28 +27 A+ C+ A- +1 C- A+ F
 Wed, Jan 21 92 Memphis W 83 - 66 69% +3  14 - 3 4 - 2 +20 +20 C- A+ A+ +1 A+ B- A-
 Sat, Jan 24 239 @Rice W 81 - 72 81%
 Wed, Jan 28 127 North Texas W 74 - 65 80%
 Sun, Feb 1 103 Wichita St. W 79 - 73 73%
 Wed, Feb 4 95 @Florida Atlantic L 80 - 81 49%
 Sun, Feb 8 74 @South Florida L 82 - 85 40%
 Wed, Feb 11 117 UAB W 84 - 76 78%
 Sat, Feb 14 103 @Wichita St. W 76 - 75 51%
 Wed, Feb 18 173 Charlotte W 82 - 70 87%
 Sun, Feb 22 345 Texas San Antonio W 90 - 67 98%
 Wed, Feb 25 172 @Tulane W 80 - 74 72%
 Thu, Mar 5 267 @East Carolina W 82 - 71 85%
 Sun, Mar 8 140 Temple W 82 - 72 82%
Totals 23 - 6 13 - 5 +8 +8 A B+ B+ +0 C C C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.8 7.9 15.2 10.7 2.9 37.5 1st
2nd 0.4 6.2 12.9 5.2 0.4 25.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 9.2 3.2 0.1 15.0 3rd
4th 0.5 5.2 3.2 0.1 9.0 4th
5th 0.1 1.7 3.7 0.3 5.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.5 0.8 3.8 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.1 2.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.1 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.7 2.1 6.0 12.5 19.8 24.2 20.5 11.1 2.9 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 2.9    2.8 0.0
15-3 96.3% 10.7    8.7 1.9 0.0
14-4 74.1% 15.2    7.6 6.3 1.3 0.0
13-5 32.7% 7.9    1.4 3.4 2.5 0.6 0.1
12-6 4.2% 0.8    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 37.5% 37.5 20.5 11.8 4.0 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 2.9% 51.1% 42.4% 8.8% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.0 1.4 15.2%
15-3 11.1% 36.1% 34.0% 2.1% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.1 0.7 7.1 3.2%
14-4 20.5% 31.2% 31.0% 0.2% 11.4 0.0 3.9 2.5 0.0 14.1 0.3%
13-5 24.2% 27.0% 26.9% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 2.8 3.7 0.1 17.6 0.1%
12-6 19.8% 21.0% 21.0% 11.8 1.1 2.9 0.1 15.6
11-7 12.5% 16.6% 16.6% 11.9 0.3 1.6 0.2 10.4
10-8 6.0% 11.5% 11.5% 12.1 0.1 0.5 0.1 5.3
9-9 2.1% 7.9% 7.9% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.0
8-10 0.7% 4.8% 4.8% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
7-11 0.1% 0.1
6-12 0.0% 0.0 0.0
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 25.5% 25.0% 0.6% 11.5 74.5 0.7%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.2% 100.0% 9.9 1.7 4.1 8.3 17.8 24.4 42.6 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 18.6% 10.8 3.9 14.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 15.0% 10.9 1.4 13.6