Tulsa
American Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.1#92
Expected Predictive Rating+14.1#37
Pace69.3#193
Improvement-1.3#267

Offense
Total Offense+6.2#55
First Shot+3.9#79
After Offensive Rebound+2.3#47
Layup/Dunks+0.2#183
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#343
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.8#45
Freethrows+2.3#59
Improvement-1.7#304

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#168
First Shot-0.6#182
After Offensive Rebounds+0.4#162
Layups/Dunks-0.1#182
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#40
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#283
Freethrows+0.2#163
Improvement+0.3#161
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.3% 18.0% 10.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 1.2% 1.4% 0.3%
Average Seed 11.5 11.5 11.8
.500 or above 99.8% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 90.4% 92.1% 75.4%
Conference Champion 23.5% 25.2% 8.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four0.9% 1.0% 0.3%
First Round16.7% 17.4% 10.6%
Second Round3.5% 3.7% 1.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.7% 0.7% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Rice (Home) - 89.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 23 - 34 - 4
Quad 310 - 313 - 7
Quad 410 - 123 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 119 Rhode Island W 82-65 62%     1 - 0 +20.1 +17.2 +4.1
  Wed, Nov 12 303 @Oral Roberts W 88-87 85%     2 - 0 -4.0 +9.0 -13.0
  Mon, Nov 17 58 @Kansas St. L 83-84 29%     2 - 1 +10.9 +8.4 +2.7
  Fri, Nov 21 195 Austin Peay W 84-75 85%     3 - 1 +3.7 +13.8 -9.8
  Tue, Nov 25 197 San Jose St. W 81-51 79%     4 - 1 +27.7 +17.2 +14.7
  Wed, Nov 26 93 Northern Iowa W 63-60 50%     5 - 1 +9.0 +4.9 +4.4
  Sat, Dec 6 254 Missouri St. W 98-74 90%     6 - 1 +15.8 +26.7 -9.9
  Wed, Dec 10 351 Arkansas Pine Bluff W 117-84 97%     7 - 1 +17.2 +26.6 -12.5
  Sat, Dec 13 127 New Mexico St. W 83-70 65%     8 - 1 +15.2 +11.5 +3.7
  Fri, Dec 19 145 @Western Kentucky W 82-81 58%     9 - 1 +5.1 +10.4 -5.4
  Mon, Dec 22 290 Denver W 90-85 92%     10 - 1 -4.7 -1.1 -4.1
  Wed, Dec 31 231 Rice W 81-68 90%    
  Sun, Jan 4 146 @North Texas W 70-68 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 79 South Florida W 83-81 58%    
  Wed, Jan 14 183 @Charlotte W 76-71 67%    
  Sun, Jan 18 107 @UAB L 79-80 46%    
  Wed, Jan 21 72 Memphis W 77-76 55%    
  Sun, Jan 25 231 @Rice W 78-71 75%    
  Wed, Jan 28 146 North Texas W 73-65 77%    
  Sun, Feb 1 98 Wichita St. W 77-73 63%    
  Wed, Feb 4 114 @Florida Atlantic L 79-80 49%    
  Sun, Feb 8 79 @South Florida L 80-84 36%    
  Wed, Feb 11 107 UAB W 82-77 67%    
  Sat, Feb 14 98 @Wichita St. L 74-76 41%    
  Wed, Feb 18 183 Charlotte W 79-68 84%    
  Sun, Feb 22 287 Texas San Antonio W 85-69 92%    
  Wed, Feb 25 194 @Tulane W 79-74 68%    
  Thu, Mar 5 271 @East Carolina W 80-71 79%    
  Sun, Mar 8 151 Temple W 83-74 78%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 12 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected American Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 3.2 6.8 6.9 4.2 1.6 0.3 23.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 3.8 7.7 4.8 1.3 0.1 18.2 2nd
3rd 0.3 3.3 7.0 3.7 0.6 0.0 14.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 2.1 6.0 3.5 0.4 0.0 12.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 4.5 3.6 0.4 0.0 9.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.7 3.7 0.7 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.1 1.4 3.0 0.9 0.0 5.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.1 0.1 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.2 0.9 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.8 5.0 7.9 11.5 14.2 15.2 15.0 12.2 8.1 4.3 1.6 0.3 Total



American Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.3    0.3
17-1 100.0% 1.6    1.5 0.0
16-2 97.2% 4.2    3.8 0.4
15-3 84.3% 6.9    4.9 1.9 0.1
14-4 55.7% 6.8    3.0 3.0 0.7 0.1
13-5 21.5% 3.2    0.7 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 23.5% 23.5 14.3 6.7 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.3% 75.8% 52.5% 23.2% 7.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 48.9%
17-1 1.6% 48.0% 35.2% 12.7% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.8 19.7%
16-2 4.3% 43.1% 34.8% 8.3% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 0.3 2.5 12.7%
15-3 8.1% 33.7% 31.0% 2.7% 11.3 0.0 0.1 1.8 0.8 0.0 5.4 4.0%
14-4 12.2% 25.6% 24.5% 1.0% 11.5 0.0 1.6 1.5 0.1 9.0 1.4%
13-5 15.0% 20.5% 20.2% 0.4% 11.7 0.0 1.0 1.9 0.1 0.0 11.9 0.4%
12-6 15.2% 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 11.9 0.4 1.7 0.2 0.0 12.9 0.0%
11-7 14.2% 11.0% 11.0% 12.1 0.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 12.6
10-8 11.5% 7.7% 7.7% 12.2 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.6
9-9 7.9% 5.9% 5.9% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 7.5
8-10 5.0% 2.9% 2.9% 12.7 0.1 0.1 0.0 4.8
7-11 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.7
6-12 1.2% 1.6% 1.6% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.2
5-13 0.5% 2.0% 2.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.5
4-14 0.1% 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 17.3% 16.2% 1.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 6.8 8.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 82.7 1.2%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 6.8 15.4 13.5 19.2 15.4 7.7 23.1 3.8 1.9
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 55.0% 10.2 20.0 5.0 30.0