Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.3 #179
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #180
Pace 62.5 #340
Improvement +4.9 #13

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #168 C C+ C- C+ D+
Defense #214 C- D C D+ A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #323 1.32 #32 -0.8 #210
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #149 0.67 #297 -0.3 #188
Three Pointers 45% #97 0.95 #264 +0.6 #159
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #193 -0.4 #191
Freethrows 20.0 #54 67% #340 13.3 #139
Second Chance 34.1% #87 1.01 #229 0.35 #118
Turnovers 17.1% #223
Total Offense -0.1 #168

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #349 1.32 #344 +2.7 #88
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #8 0.75 #172 -3.5 #357
Three Pointers 41% #200 1.06 #233 -0.6 #204
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #220 -1.4 #221
Freethrows 19.4 #289 72% #135 13.9 #281
Second Chance 32.7% #266 1.11 #271 0.36 #286
Turnovers 17.0% #143
Total Defense -1.2 #214

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.2% #267 -3.7% #8
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.3% #172 6.6% #303
Possession Length 18.6 #302 17.9 #274
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #229 0.16 #128
Improvement +4.9 #4 +0.1 #181

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 6.0% 3.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.3
.500 or above 56.2% 69.4% 41.7%
.500 or above in Conference 79.5% 89.2% 68.8%
Conference Champion 1.8% 2.7% 0.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.3% 0.0% 0.5%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round4.9% 6.0% 3.8%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Away) - 52.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 410 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 145 Arkansas St. L 85 - 86 53% +7  0 - 1 -3 +0 C C- D+ -3 C D+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 156 @Texas Arlington L 49 - 67 33% -7  0 - 2 -15 -17 F F F +2 F A+ C+
 Sat, Nov 22 218 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74 - 67 69% -2  1 - 2 +1 +7 C+ D A+ -6 A F A+
 Mon, Nov 24 222 LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 75 70% +1  1 - 3 -21 -8 F B+ B -15 F C- C
 Sat, Dec 6 70 @Tulsa L 74 - 98 13% -14  1 - 4 -13 +6 A+ D F -20 F B- F
 Fri, Dec 12 81 @Xavier L 57 - 75 14% -7  1 - 5 -8 -5 F D F -5 D+ C D
 Tue, Dec 16 321 Oral Roberts W 63 - 62 86% +2  2 - 5 -12 -9 D F C -3 B- C D+
 Tue, Dec 23 237 Lindenwood W 70 - 65 72% +5  3 - 5 -2 -3 F B+ A+ +1 B A+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 295 @Delaware W 61 - 43 63% +12  4 - 5 1 - 0 +13 -3 D+ F D- +20 A+ C- A+
 Fri, Jan 2 256 UTEP W 79 - 55 74% +16  5 - 5 2 - 0 +16 +19 B- A+ C +2 B- C B
 Sun, Jan 4 133 New Mexico St. W 89 - 82 50% +8  6 - 5 3 - 0 +6 +12 A- A+ F -7 D C B+
 Wed, Jan 7 150 @Kennesaw St. L 80 - 90 32% -8  6 - 6 3 - 1 -6 +4 C- B D -9 F D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 192 Florida International W 79 - 71 64% +6  7 - 6 4 - 1 +3 +2 C A+ F +1 A+ C C
 Wed, Jan 14 162 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 87 35% -6  7 - 7 4 - 2 -12 +5 D- A+ C -19 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 128 @Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 2OT 27% -0  7 - 8 4 - 3 +2 +11 B+ B+ B- -9 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 22 133 @New Mexico St. W 84 - 75 28% +5  8 - 8 5 - 3 +14 +19 A+ F D+ -4 A+ D- F
 Sat, Jan 24 256 @UTEP W 68 - 67 52%
 Wed, Jan 28 124 Sam Houston St. L 74 - 75 47%
 Sat, Jan 31 216 Jacksonville St. W 70 - 65 68%
 Sat, Feb 7 94 @Liberty L 65 - 75 18%
 Thu, Feb 12 228 Louisiana Tech W 66 - 60 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 295 Delaware W 71 - 62 81%
 Wed, Feb 18 150 Kennesaw St. W 77 - 76 54%
 Sat, Feb 21 192 @Florida International L 74 - 76 42%
 Thu, Feb 26 228 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 64 48%
 Sat, Feb 28 124 @Sam Houston St. L 71 - 78 26%
 Thu, Mar 5 162 Western Kentucky W 75 - 73 57%
 Sat, Mar 7 128 Middle Tennessee L 68 - 69 49%
Totals 14 - 14 11 - 9 -1 +0 C C+ C- -1 C- D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.8 1st
2nd 0.1 2.3 6.0 5.3 2.1 0.3 0.0 16.2 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.2 8.1 6.3 1.4 0.1 0.0 18.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 7.6 6.5 1.0 0.0 16.3 4th
5th 0.4 5.6 7.5 1.4 0.0 14.9 5th
6th 0.1 2.6 7.4 2.1 0.1 12.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 5.1 2.6 0.1 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 2.4 3.1 0.4 0.0 6.0 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.2 0.5 0.0 3.6 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 1.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.6 2.2 5.9 11.7 17.1 19.6 18.3 13.6 7.2 2.9 0.7 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 70.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 52.2% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 23.3% 0.7    0.2 0.4 0.1
14-6 7.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2
13-7 1.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.8% 1.8 0.6 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.7% 16.9% 16.9% 12.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
15-5 2.9% 13.6% 13.6% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.5
14-6 7.2% 11.4% 11.4% 13.6 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.1 6.4
13-7 13.6% 8.9% 8.9% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.1 0.0 12.4
12-8 18.3% 6.1% 6.1% 14.3 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 17.2
11-9 19.6% 4.0% 4.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.0 18.8
10-10 17.1% 1.9% 1.9% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 16.8
9-11 11.7% 1.1% 1.1% 15.7 0.0 0.1 11.6
8-12 5.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 5.9
7-13 2.2% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 2.2
6-14 0.6% 0.6
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 14.1 95.0 0.0%