Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -2.4 204
Results Rating -4.3 238
Consistency 0.14 133
Pace 64.6 283
Improvement +1.7 129

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 190 C- B- C- C+ D
Defense C- 215 D+ D+ C D- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 327 B 64% 57 -1.3 231
2 Pt. Jumpers 41% 146 D- 31% 346 +0.0 179
Three Pointers 42% 154 D+ 32% 263 -0.5 198
Shot Selection/Accuracy D -0.9 302 C- -0.9 208
1st FG Attempt C- 0.98 231
Second Chance C+ 32.1% 123 B- 1.10 83 B- 0.35 82
Opponents' Steals C 9.3% 171
Other Turnovers D+ 8.0% 272
Turnovers C- 17.3% 223
Freethrows B 0.34 56 F+ 67% 345 C+ 0.23 144
Total Offense C- -1.1 190

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 47% 213 C+ 10.5% 150
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 27% 143 F 14.2% 365
Three Pointers B 89% 72 B- 0.5% 87
Total C 57% 155 D- 7.2% 327


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 29% 352 F 69% 365 -2.0 105
2 Pt. Jumpers 32% 4 C 38% 168 +4.2 360
Three Pointers 39% 253 D+ 36% 283 +0.1 189
Shot Selection/Accuracy A+ -2.1 5 D- +4.5 339
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 257
Second Chance C- 31.3% 228 D+ 1.09 272 D+ 0.34 261
Turnovers from Steals C+ 10.3% 119
Other Turnovers C- 6.8% 247
Turnovers C 17.1% 157
Freethrows D- 0.36 328 D+ 74% 270 D- 0.27 334
Total Defense C- -1.4 215

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 334 D+ 8.4% 281
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C+ 23% 139 B+ 8.6% 33
Three Pointers C+ 82% 126 D+ 0.5% 253
Total C 55% 181 C 5.4% 186

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.0 250 17.7 250
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 273 0.16 149
Consistency 0.12 189 0.12 195
Improvement +2.5 70 -0.8 225

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 227 202 175
Results Rating Rank 263 232 200
Conference Record 7 - 13 8 - 12 9 - 11
Conference Finish 10 8 6
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2% 3% 2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 1% 2% 0%
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 2% 0% 4%
First Four1% 1% 2%
First Round2% 2% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%
Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 44.5% chance of victory

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 93 - 14
Quad 49 - 412 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 146 Arkansas St. L 85 - 86 48% +7  83% 0 - 1 C- -3 C- -2 C C- C C -1 C+ D C
 Sat, Nov 15 180 @Texas Arlington L 49 - 67 34% -7  29% 0 - 2 F+ -16 F -20 F F F B- +3 F+ A- B-
 Sat, Nov 22 144 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74 - 67 48% -2  27% 1 - 2 B- +5 B +6 C+ D+ A+ C -0 A F A
 Mon, Nov 24 218 LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 75 64% +1  59% 1 - 3 F -20 F+ -9 F A- B F -13 F D- C
 Sat, Dec 6 65 @Tulsa L 74 - 98 10% -14  2% 1 - 4 D- -12 B- +4 A D+ F F -17 F B- F
 Fri, Dec 12 86 @Xavier L 57 - 75 13% -7  17% 1 - 5 D -8 F+ -10 F+ D F+ C -1 C- C+ D
 Tue, Dec 16 318 Oral Roberts W 63 - 62 83% +2  74% 2 - 5 D- -12 F -12 D F C- C +0 B- C- C-
 Tue, Dec 23 276 Lindenwood W 70 - 65 75% +5  80% 3 - 5 C- -4 D- -7 F+ B+ A B- +2 B+ A- F
 Mon, Dec 29 274 @Delaware W 61 - 43 53% +12  98% 4 - 5 1 - 0 A- +15 D- -7 C- F D- A+ +25 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 259 UTEP W 79 - 55 73% +16  99% 5 - 5 2 - 0 A- +15 A+ +18 B A+ C+ B- +3 C+ D+ B-
 Sun, Jan 4 176 New Mexico St. W 89 - 82 56% +8  97% 6 - 5 3 - 0 C+ +3 B+ +9 B A+ F+ D -6 F+ C- B
 Wed, Jan 7 157 @Kennesaw St. L 80 - 90 30% -8  6% 6 - 6 3 - 1 D+ -7 C +0 C- B D+ D- -7 F D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 199 Florida International W 79 - 71 61% +6  89% 7 - 6 4 - 1 C+ +3 C -0 C- A+ D B- +3 A- D+ D
 Wed, Jan 14 130 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 87 24% -6  23% 7 - 7 4 - 2 D -10 B- +5 D+ A+ C F -16 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 164 @Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 2OT 31% -0  40% 7 - 8 4 - 3 C -0 B +6 C+ B+ C+ D -6 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 22 176 @New Mexico St. W 84 - 75 34% +5  64% 8 - 8 5 - 3 B +11 A+ +15 A+ D- D D+ -3 A- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 259 @UTEP W 62 - 57 51% -2  25% 9 - 8 6 - 3 C+ +2 D- -8 F+ C+ F A +10 C A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 108 Sam Houston St. L 71 - 80 37% -4  7% 9 - 9 6 - 4 D+ -8 D+ -4 C+ A C- D+ -4 D B B+
 Sat, Jan 31 192 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 67 60% +7  92% 10 - 9 7 - 4 C+ +2 C- -2 C+ A D+ B +4 B+ F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 114 @Liberty L 76 - 79 20% -7  3% 10 - 10 7 - 5 C+ +3 C+ +3 C- A- B+ C +0 C D B
 Thu, Feb 12 220 Louisiana Tech L 78 - 79 2OT 66% +1  54% 10 - 11 7 - 6 D+ -8 F -11 F A D- B +4 F+ A+ A-
 Sat, Feb 14 274 Delaware L 67 - 76 74% -5  12% 10 - 12 7 - 7 F -18 D- -6 F A- B+ F -13 F A+ F
 Wed, Feb 18 157 Kennesaw St. L 87 - 91 52% -5  4% 10 - 13 7 - 8 D+ -7 B +6 A- C- A- F -13 F D F
 Sat, Feb 21 199 @Florida International L 67 - 70 38% -3  5% 10 - 14 7 - 9 C- -2 D -5 D+ D- C- B- +2 C B F+
 Thu, Feb 26 220 @Louisiana Tech L 70 - 72 43% -1  38% 10 - 15 7 - 10 C- -3 C+ +2 D B D+ D+ -5 F F+ B
 Sat, Feb 28 108 @Sam Houston St. L 81 - 86 19% -8  1% 10 - 16 7 - 11 C+ +2 A- +10 B- B A F+ -9 C+ F F
 Thu, Mar 5 130 Western Kentucky L 73 - 74 45%
 Sat, Mar 7 164 Middle Tennessee W 71 - 70 53%
Totals 11 - 17 8 - 12 -2 C- -1 B+ C- D C- -1 D+ F+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- B D- D+ C- 33% 41% 42% D C- C+ B- B- C- B F+ C+ C- F C D+ D- 29% 32% 39% A+ D+ C- D+ D+ C D- D+ D-
1.07 64% 31% 32% -1 -1 0.98 32% 1.1 .35 17% .34 67% .23 1.11 69% 38% 36% +4 -2 1.07 31% 1.1 .34 17% .36 74% .25
Nov
11		 Arkansas St. C- A+ C D- B- 31% 31% 38% F+ C D- A+ C- C A+ B- A+ C F F A+ D 19% 43% 38% A+ C+ C+ F D C F D- F
1.07 75% 38% 30% +3 -2 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 15% .55 73% .40 1.08 70% 48% 25% +1 -4 0.96 36% 1.2 .44 20% .46 79% .36
Nov
15		 Texas Arlington F D F F F 57% 18% 25% A+ F C+ F F F A+ D- A- B- C- C- F F 44% 31% 25% A F+ D- A+ A- B- B- A+ A+
0.72 52% 13% 9% -17 +2 0.70 30% 0.3 .08 25% .47 67% .31 0.98 57% 40% 42% +3 -1 1.06 40% 0.6 .25 22% .32 35% .11
Nov
22		 UT Rio Grande Valley B A+ D F B- 21% 19% 60% D C+ D+ C- D+ A+ A+ B- A+ C F A+ A+ A 37% 30% 33% A A F F F A F F F
1.17 100% 33% 28% +2 -1 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 9% .45 73% .33 1.06 81% 23% 14% -6 -1 0.88 41% 1.5 .63 22% .39 84% .33
Nov
24		 LIU Brooklyn F+ D+ D F F 39% 20% 41% D+ F C+ A+ A- B A+ F B+ F F F F F 31% 38% 31% A+ F D- C- D- C F B+ D
0.97 53% 33% 17% -14 0 0.75 35% 1.3 .46 16% .51 52% .27 1.20 92% 60% 42% +22 -3 1.41 39% 1.0 .39 21% .36 61% .22
Dec
6		 Tulsa B- B F A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C- A D C D+ F A F C+ F C A+ F F 40% 2% 58% D F F A+ B- F F C F
1.10 64% 25% 48% +10 0 1.22 22% 1.1 .25 21% .36 58% .21 1.46 58% 0% 50% +13 +2 1.33 47% 0.8 .36 10% .50 80% .40
Dec
12		 Xavier F+ B- F F F 52% 24% 24% B F+ B- F D F+ C+ A+ B+ C B A+ F C- 30% 21% 49% D+ C- F+ A+ C+ D B A+ A
0.90 63% 9% 27% -7 +1 0.89 29% 0.6 .18 21% .30 80% .24 1.18 56% 27% 46% +6 -1 1.13 33% 0.8 .26 9% .21 58% .12
Dec
16		 Oral Roberts F A+ C+ F C 18% 31% 51% F D D- F F C- A- C+ A- C F A+ F D+ 16% 40% 44% A+ B- A+ F C- C- F F F
0.99 88% 43% 26% +1 -3 0.98 26% 0.9 .23 16% .39 71% .28 0.98 71% 17% 40% -2 -4 0.89 15% 1.8 .27 17% .44 87% .38
Dec
23		 Lindenwood D- A+ F F F+ 36% 20% 44% D+ F+ C A+ B+ A B F D B- F D A+ B 29% 27% 44% A B+ C A+ A- F F A F
1.02 78% 10% 23% -6 0 0.90 33% 1.3 .43 13% .38 52% .20 0.94 71% 38% 14% -9 -1 0.81 31% 0.8 .24 13% .52 58% .30
Dec
29		 Delaware D- D+ B D D 36% 16% 49% B C- D F F D- A+ F A- A+ A+ D+ A+ A+ 32% 18% 50% C A+ C+ F D+ A+ F A D-
1.01 56% 43% 32% -2 0 1.00 25% 0.5 .13 17% .38 74% .28 0.71 25% 43% 26% -15 0 0.71 18% 1.2 .21 25% .35 69% .24
Jan
2		 UTEP A+ A+ B- B A- 23% 36% 41% F B A+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C A+ B- A+ F B D+ 18% 49% 33% A+ C+ F A+ D+ B- F B F
1.36 78% 43% 38% +8 -3 1.13 48% 1.7 .80 17% .54 73% .40 0.95 43% 47% 31% 0 -5 0.92 39% 0.8 .29 19% .43 65% .28
Jan
4		 New Mexico St. B+ A+ F A+ A 22% 39% 39% F B A- A+ A+ F+ A+ D+ A+ D F A- F F 25% 45% 29% A+ F+ F B+ C- B F F F
1.25 80% 17% 50% +6 -4 1.07 39% 1.4 .56 18% .67 74% .50 1.15 85% 30% 47% +9 -4 1.12 39% 0.8 .33 17% .39 83% .32
Jan
7		 Kennesaw St. C D+ C- D+ D+ 46% 15% 39% B- C- A+ D- B D+ A+ F C- D- F B- F F 38% 6% 56% D+ F C- F+ D- A+ F F F
1.07 52% 38% 33% -3 +1 0.98 42% 0.8 .36 17% .50 58% .29 1.21 72% 33% 41% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .39 24% .57 78% .44
Jan
10		 Florida International C A- A+ D C 14% 20% 66% F C- C+ A+ A+ D A+ F A+ B- F B A+ B- 30% 42% 28% A+ A- B- F D+ D C A+ B
1.11 67% 56% 31% +2 -2 1.02 36% 1.5 .55 22% .56 61% .34 0.99 75% 32% 20% -3 -3 0.89 30% 1.3 .38 15% .31 58% .18
Jan
14		 Western Kentucky B- A- A F D 24% 12% 63% B- D+ B+ A+ A+ C D B+ C F B- F F F 38% 29% 33% A F F+ F F D F F F
1.09 67% 50% 26% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.3 .43 18% .37 75% .28 1.32 50% 50% 44% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.5 .55 12% .50 83% .41
Jan
17		 Middle Tennessee B D+ F A+ C 49% 18% 33% B C+ A D+ B+ C+ A F C D B- D+ F F 36% 14% 50% F+ F D+ F F A+ F F F
1.14 54% 10% 47% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 14% .40 62% .25 1.18 56% 43% 52% +13 +1 1.30 33% 1.6 .52 24% .40 78% .31
Jan
22		 New Mexico St. A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 32% 27% 41% D+ A+ A+ F D- D A+ B+ A+ D+ F B+ A B 19% 41% 41% A+ A- B F F+ F F+ D+ F+
1.30 79% 58% 39% +15 -1 1.30 43% 0.6 .27 17% .50 81% .41 1.16 70% 32% 27% -4 -4 0.85 29% 1.4 .39 8% .34 75% .25
Jan
24		 UTEP D- A+ F F F+ 30% 28% 43% D F+ F A+ C+ F A+ C+ A+ A D A+ F C- 22% 41% 37% A+ C A+ A+ A+ D+ C- D- D+
0.96 75% 27% 24% -5 -1 0.90 21% 1.8 .38 23% .46 74% .34 0.88 64% 20% 44% 0 -4 0.94 9% 0.0 .00 15% .28 73% .20
Jan
28		 Sam Houston St. D+ A+ F A B+ 27% 43% 31% F C+ D+ A+ A C- C F D D+ F C+ B- F+ 43% 33% 24% A D C+ B B B+ F+ C- F+
1.03 77% 29% 40% +4 -4 1.02 26% 1.7 .44 17% .32 61% .19 1.16 77% 35% 33% +7 -1 1.14 34% 0.9 .31 20% .35 74% .26
Jan
31		 Jacksonville St. C- A+ D D+ B 21% 32% 47% F C+ B+ A A D+ B F D- B F F+ A+ C- 24% 50% 26% A+ B+ F B- F A+ F F F
1.08 90% 33% 32% +4 -3 1.04 35% 1.3 .44 18% .37 57% .21 0.98 70% 43% 18% -1 -5 0.90 50% 0.9 .47 26% .54 78% .42
Feb
7		 Liberty C+ C F A+ C 38% 29% 33% D C- B- A A- B+ A+ F A C F F B+ C- 48% 11% 41% B- C C- F D B F B F
1.13 56% 29% 44% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.4 .49 15% .45 54% .24 1.17 73% 60% 32% +8 +2 1.22 19% 1.2 .22 16% .50 64% .32
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Louisiana Tech F B+ F F F 22% 36% 42% F F A- B A D- A- D B B F C C- F 25% 49% 25% A+ F+ B- A+ A+ A- C+ D+ C
0.91 62% 24% 20% -13 -3 0.69 41% 1.2 .47 21% .38 69% .26 0.92 87% 38% 33% +7 -5 1.07 33% 0.3 .10 23% .27 67% .18
Feb
14		 Delaware D- F+ F D+ F 16% 35% 49% F F C- A+ A- B+ B F C+ F F A- F F 30% 34% 36% A+ F A A+ A+ F D- F F
1.07 50% 17% 32% -10 -4 0.75 28% 1.5 .44 11% .32 72% .23 1.21 93% 31% 47% +15 -2 1.28 13% 0.0 .00 13% .31 94% .29
Feb
18		 Kennesaw St. B A+ B- B+ A+ 26% 26% 49% F A- D+ C+ C- A- A+ F A+ F F B F F 15% 34% 51% A+ F B+ F D F F C+ F
1.20 75% 42% 39% +9 -2 1.17 27% 1.0 .27 12% .62 67% .41 1.26 86% 31% 50% +14 -3 1.23 29% 1.3 .38 12% .54 68% .36
Feb
21		 Florida International D F A A+ D+ 38% 17% 45% C D+ C F D- C- A F+ B B- D- C A C- 40% 32% 28% A C A+ F B F+ F B- F+
1.00 33% 50% 43% -2 0 1.00 35% 0.8 .27 21% .39 67% .26 1.04 65% 38% 29% 0 -1 1.00 19% 1.5 .29 13% .41 67% .27
Feb
26		 Louisiana Tech C+ F C+ D+ F+ 53% 11% 36% A D B C+ B D+ A+ A+ A+ D+ D- F D- F 19% 29% 52% A+ F A F F+ B F C+ F
1.05 42% 40% 31% -10 +2 0.87 38% 1.1 .41 20% .45 83% .37 1.08 63% 50% 36% +6 -2 1.10 27% 1.4 .37 21% .46 63% .29
Feb
28		 Sam Houston St. A- D+ A+ C- C+ 48% 15% 37% B+ B- B- B B A B C B- F+ B- C+ F C- 40% 34% 26% A C+ D+ F F F F F+ F
1.20 56% 50% 32% -1 +1 1.04 33% 1.2 .39 12% .35 71% .25 1.27 55% 35% 46% +3 -2 1.04 38% 1.3 .47 12% .47 79% .37



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 1.8 1.8 5th
6th 7.7 7.7 6th
7th 10.6 10.6 7th
8th 3.7 36.7 4.3 44.7 8th
9th 13.0 12.0 25.0 9th
10th 8.6 8.6 10th
11th 1.6 1.6 11th
12th 12th
Total 26.9 48.7 24.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 24.4% 2.9% 2.9% 15.7 0.2 0.5 23.7
8-12 48.7% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.9 47.8
7-13 26.9% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.4 26.5
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 15.9 97.9 0.0%


Best / Worst Case Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 15.7 31.9 68.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 2.6%
Lose Out 14.5%