Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.1 179
Expected Predictive Rating -0.9 177
Pace 63.7 314
Improvement +4.5 31

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C #172 C B- C- C+ D
Defense C #193 C- D+ C+ D- A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% 333 68% 18 -0.5 198
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% 99 31% 345 -0.1 184
Three Pointers 43% 129 32% 248 +0.1 170
1st FG Attempt 1.01 192 -0.5 188
Second Chance 32.2% 138 1.11 73 0.36 88
Turnovers 17.6% 225
Freethrows 0.35 49 66% 350 0.23 140
Total Offense -0.6 172

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% 349 67% 360 +1.8 114
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 7 38% 170 -3.9 361
Three Pointers 39% 253 35% 219 +0.8 148
1st FG Attempt 1.05 223 -1.3 223
Second Chance 33.0% 286 1.06 244 0.35 275
Turnovers 17.8% 123
Freethrows 0.36 322 73% 252 0.26 323
Total Defense -0.6 193

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.9 302 -1.9 8
Shot Type Accuracy +0.4 157 +3.3 307
Possession Length 18.2 274 17.6 237
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 243 0.17 163
Improvement +3.4 #38 +1.1 #122

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7% 8% 5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.9
.500 or above 62% 73% 39%
.500 or above in Conference 90% 95% 77%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round7% 8% 5%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 68.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 84 - 12
Quad 411 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 141 Arkansas St. L 85 - 86 53% +7  83% 0 - 1 C- -3 C- -2 C C C+ C -1 C+ D C+
 Sat, Nov 15 169 @Texas Arlington L 49 - 67 37% -7  29% 0 - 2 F+ -16 F -21 F F F B +5 F+ A- B-
 Sat, Nov 22 149 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74 - 67 55% -2  27% 1 - 2 C+ +5 B +6 C+ D+ A+ C -1 A F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 207 LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 75 67% +1  59% 1 - 3 F -20 F+ -9 F A- B F -13 F D C
 Sat, Dec 6 70 @Tulsa L 74 - 98 13% -14  2% 1 - 4 D- -13 C+ +3 A+ D+ F F -18 F B F
 Fri, Dec 12 83 @Xavier L 57 - 75 16% -7  17% 1 - 5 D -8 D- -8 D- D+ D- C- -3 D+ C D-
 Tue, Dec 16 337 Oral Roberts W 63 - 62 89% +2  74% 2 - 5 D- -13 F -12 D F C- C -1 C+ C- C-
 Tue, Dec 23 246 Lindenwood W 70 - 65 73% +5  80% 3 - 5 C- -3 D- -6 F+ B A B- +4 B+ A F
 Mon, Dec 29 279 @Delaware W 61 - 43 60% +12  98% 4 - 5 1 - 0 B+ +14 D- -6 D+ F D A+ +23 A+ D+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 239 UTEP W 79 - 55 73% +16  99% 5 - 5 2 - 0 A- +17 A+ +18 B A+ B- B- +4 C+ C- B
 Sun, Jan 4 167 New Mexico St. W 89 - 82 59% +8  97% 6 - 5 3 - 0 C+ +4 B+ +9 B A+ D D -6 D- C- B-
 Wed, Jan 7 154 @Kennesaw St. L 80 - 90 34% -8  6% 6 - 6 3 - 1 D+ -7 C +1 C B- D+ D- -7 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 10 188 Florida International W 79 - 71 64% +6  89% 7 - 6 4 - 1 C+ +3 C -0 C A+ D B- +3 A- D+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 160 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 87 35% -6  23% 7 - 7 4 - 2 D- -12 B- +4 D A+ C F -17 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 173 @Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 2OT 37% -0  40% 7 - 8 4 - 3 C -1 B +6 C+ B+ C+ D -7 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 22 167 @New Mexico St. W 84 - 75 36% +5  64% 8 - 8 5 - 3 B+ +12 A+ +16 A+ D- D+ C- -3 A- F+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 239 @UTEP W 62 - 57 51% -2  25% 9 - 8 6 - 3 C+ +4 D- -7 D- C+ F A +11 C A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 121 Sam Houston St. L 71 - 80 47% -4  7% 9 - 9 6 - 4 D -9 D+ -4 C+ A- C D -6 D B- B+
 Sat, Jan 31 184 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 67 63% +7  92% 10 - 9 7 - 4 C+ +2 C- -0 C+ A C- B- +3 B F A+
 Sat, Feb 7 95 @Liberty L 76 - 79 19% -7  3% 10 - 10 7 - 5 B- +5 B- +5 C A- B+ C+ +1 C- D+ B+
 Thu, Feb 12 223 Louisiana Tech W 68 - 63 68%
 Sat, Feb 14 279 Delaware W 71 - 62 80%
 Wed, Feb 18 154 Kennesaw St. W 77 - 75 57%
 Sat, Feb 21 188 @Florida International L 75 - 77 43%
 Thu, Feb 26 223 @Louisiana Tech L 65 - 66 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 121 @Sam Houston St. L 71 - 78 26%
 Thu, Mar 5 160 Western Kentucky W 73 - 71 57%
 Sat, Mar 7 173 Middle Tennessee W 70 - 67 61%
Totals 14 - 14 11 - 9 -1 C -1 C B- C- C -1 C- D+ C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C A- D- C- C 32% 24% 43% D C C+ B- B- C- B F+ C+ C F+ C C- D 30% 31% 39% A C- D+ C- D+ C+ D C- D-
1.08 68% 31% 32% 0 -1 1.01 32% 1.1 .36 18% .35 66% .23 1.09 67% 38% 35% +3 -2 1.05 33% 1.1 .35 18% .36 73% .26
Nov
11		 Arkansas St. C- A+ C- D B- 31% 31% 38% F+ C D A C C+ A+ C+ A+ C F F A+ D 19% 43% 38% A+ C+ C+ F D C+ F D- F
1.07 75% 38% 30% +3 -2 1.04 21% 1.3 .27 15% .55 73% .40 1.08 70% 48% 25% +2 -4 0.96 36% 1.2 .44 20% .46 79% .36
Nov
15		 Texas Arlington F D F F F 57% 18% 25% A+ F C+ F F F A D- B+ B D+ C- F F 44% 31% 25% A F+ D A+ A- B- B- A+ A+
0.72 52% 13% 9% -17 +2 0.70 30% 0.3 .08 25% .47 67% .31 0.98 57% 40% 42% +3 -1 1.06 40% 0.6 .25 22% .32 35% .11
Nov
22		 UT Rio Grande Valley B A+ D+ F+ B- 21% 19% 60% D+ C+ D+ D+ D+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C F A+ A+ A- 37% 30% 33% A A F F F A- F F F
1.17 100% 33% 28% +2 -1 1.04 29% 0.8 .23 9% .45 73% .33 1.06 81% 23% 14% -5 -1 0.88 41% 1.5 .63 22% .39 84% .33
Nov
24		 LIU Brooklyn F+ D+ D F F 39% 20% 41% D+ F C+ A+ A- B A+ F B F F F F F 31% 38% 31% A+ F D C- D C F+ B D
0.97 53% 33% 17% -13 0 0.75 35% 1.3 .46 16% .51 52% .27 1.20 92% 60% 42% +22 -3 1.41 39% 1.0 .39 21% .36 61% .22
Dec
6		 Tulsa C+ B F A+ A+ 31% 18% 51% C- A+ D C+ D+ F A F C+ F C A+ F F 40% 2% 58% D+ F F A+ B F F C F
1.10 64% 25% 48% +10 0 1.22 22% 1.1 .25 21% .36 58% .21 1.46 58% 0% 50% +13 +2 1.33 47% 0.8 .36 10% .50 80% .40
Dec
12		 Xavier D- B- F F F+ 52% 24% 24% B D- B- F D+ D- C+ A+ B+ C- B- A F D+ 30% 21% 49% D+ D+ F+ A C D- B A+ A-
0.90 63% 9% 27% -7 +1 0.89 29% 0.6 .18 21% .30 80% .24 1.18 56% 27% 46% +6 -1 1.13 33% 0.8 .26 9% .21 58% .12
Dec
16		 Oral Roberts F A+ C+ F C 18% 31% 51% F D D- F F C- B+ C B+ C F A+ F D 16% 40% 44% A+ C+ A+ F C- C- F F F
0.99 88% 43% 26% +1 -3 0.98 26% 0.9 .23 16% .39 71% .28 0.98 71% 17% 40% -2 -4 0.89 15% 1.8 .27 17% .44 87% .38
Dec
23		 Lindenwood D- A+ F F D- 36% 20% 44% D F+ C A B A A- F D+ B- F D A+ B 29% 27% 44% A B+ C A+ A F F A F
1.02 78% 10% 23% -6 0 0.90 33% 1.3 .43 13% .38 52% .20 0.94 71% 38% 14% -9 -2 0.81 31% 0.8 .24 13% .52 58% .30
Dec
29		 Delaware D- C- B D+ D 36% 16% 49% B D+ D F F D A F+ A- A+ A+ D A+ A+ 32% 18% 50% C A+ B- F D+ A+ F A- F+
1.01 56% 43% 32% -1 0 1.00 25% 0.5 .13 17% .38 74% .28 0.71 25% 43% 26% -15 0 0.71 18% 1.2 .21 25% .35 69% .24
Jan
2		 UTEP A+ A+ B- B A 23% 36% 41% F B A+ A+ A+ B- A+ C A+ B- A+ F B D+ 18% 49% 33% A+ C+ F A+ C- B F B F
1.36 78% 43% 38% +9 -3 1.13 48% 1.7 .80 17% .54 73% .40 0.95 43% 47% 31% 0 -5 0.92 39% 0.8 .29 19% .43 65% .28
Jan
4		 New Mexico St. B+ A+ F A+ A 22% 39% 39% F B A- A+ A+ D A+ D+ A+ D F A- F F 25% 45% 29% A+ D- F B C- B- F F F
1.25 80% 17% 50% +6 -4 1.07 39% 1.4 .56 18% .67 74% .50 1.15 85% 30% 47% +9 -4 1.12 39% 0.8 .33 17% .39 83% .32
Jan
7		 Kennesaw St. C C- C C- C- 46% 15% 39% B- C A+ D- B- D+ A+ F C D- F B- F F 38% 6% 56% D+ F C- F+ D A+ F F F
1.07 52% 38% 33% -3 +1 0.98 42% 0.8 .36 17% .50 58% .29 1.21 72% 33% 41% +11 +2 1.27 36% 1.1 .39 24% .57 78% .44
Jan
10		 Florida International C A- A+ D+ B- 14% 20% 66% F C C+ A+ A+ D A+ F A+ B- F B+ A+ B- 30% 42% 28% A+ A- B- F D+ D+ C A+ B
1.11 67% 56% 31% +2 -2 1.02 36% 1.5 .55 22% .56 61% .34 0.99 75% 32% 20% -3 -3 0.89 30% 1.3 .38 15% .31 58% .18
Jan
14		 Western Kentucky B- A- A F D- 24% 12% 63% B- D B+ A+ A+ C C- B+ C F C+ F F F 38% 29% 33% A- F D- F F D F F F
1.09 67% 50% 26% -4 0 0.94 34% 1.3 .43 18% .37 75% .28 1.32 50% 50% 44% +5 -1 1.10 38% 1.5 .55 12% .50 83% .41
Jan
17		 Middle Tennessee B D+ F A+ C+ 49% 18% 33% B C+ A C B+ C+ A F C+ D B- D F F 36% 14% 50% F+ F D F F A+ F F F
1.14 54% 10% 47% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 14% .40 62% .25 1.18 56% 43% 52% +13 +1 1.30 33% 1.6 .52 24% .40 78% .31
Jan
22		 New Mexico St. A+ A+ A+ A- A+ 32% 27% 41% D+ A+ A+ F D- D+ A+ B+ A+ C- F B+ A B+ 19% 41% 41% A+ A- B F F+ F D- D+ D-
1.30 79% 58% 39% +15 -1 1.30 43% 0.6 .27 17% .50 81% .41 1.16 70% 32% 27% -4 -4 0.85 29% 1.4 .39 8% .34 75% .25
Jan
24		 UTEP D- A+ F F D- 30% 28% 43% D D- F A+ C+ F A C+ A A D A+ F C- 22% 41% 37% A C A+ A+ A+ D+ C D- C-
0.96 75% 27% 24% -4 -1 0.90 21% 1.8 .38 23% .46 74% .34 0.88 64% 20% 44% 0 -4 0.94 9% 0.0 .00 15% .28 73% .20
Jan
28		 Sam Houston St. D+ A+ F A B+ 27% 43% 31% F C+ D A+ A- C C- F D D F C+ C+ F+ 43% 33% 24% A D C+ B B- B+ F D+ F
1.03 77% 29% 40% +4 -4 1.02 26% 1.7 .44 17% .32 61% .19 1.16 77% 35% 33% +7 -1 1.14 34% 0.9 .31 20% .35 74% .26
Jan
31		 Jacksonville St. C- A+ D D+ B+ 21% 32% 47% F C+ B+ A A C- B+ F D B- F D- A+ C- 24% 50% 26% A+ B F C+ F A+ F F F
1.08 90% 33% 32% +4 -3 1.04 35% 1.3 .44 18% .37 57% .21 0.98 70% 43% 18% -1 -5 0.90 50% 0.9 .47 26% .54 78% .42
Feb
7		 Liberty B- C F A+ C+ 38% 29% 33% D C B- A A- B+ A+ F A C+ F F B+ C- 48% 11% 41% B- C- C F+ D+ B+ F B+ F
1.13 56% 29% 44% +1 -1 1.02 34% 1.4 .49 15% .45 54% .24 1.17 73% 60% 32% +8 +2 1.22 19% 1.2 .22 16% .50 64% .32



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 7.8 12.5 6.3 1.0 28.8 2nd
3rd 0.6 9.7 12.7 3.6 0.2 26.7 3rd
4th 0.0 4.0 10.5 2.7 0.1 17.3 4th
5th 0.6 7.4 3.3 0.1 11.4 5th
6th 0.0 2.3 4.8 0.3 7.4 6th
7th 0.2 3.6 0.9 4.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.9 1.4 0.1 2.4 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.2 1.0 9th
10th 0.2 0.2 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.3 2.1 8.1 17.7 24.8 23.2 16.2 6.6 1.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 1.0% 0.0    0.0
14-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 1.0% 15.4% 15.4% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.9
14-6 6.6% 11.1% 11.1% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 5.8
13-7 16.2% 10.2% 10.2% 13.9 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.3 14.5
12-8 23.2% 7.5% 7.5% 14.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 21.5
11-9 24.8% 7.0% 7.0% 14.9 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.1 23.1
10-10 17.7% 3.3% 3.3% 15.3 0.4 0.2 17.2
9-11 8.1% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.2 7.9
8-12 2.1% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 2.0
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.8% 6.8% 0.0% 14.4 93.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%