Missouri St.
Missouri Valley
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-3.4#223
Expected Predictive Rating-5.4#252
Pace61.9#341
Improvement-2.0#277

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#238
First Shot-3.2#272
After Offensive Rebound+0.9#129
Layup/Dunks-4.0#316
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#160
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#166
Freethrows+0.0#173
Improvement+0.3#166

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#205
First Shot-0.5#196
After Offensive Rebounds-0.5#234
Layups/Dunks-3.3#301
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#303
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.4#21
Freethrows+0.0#189
Improvement-2.3#295
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.4% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 89.5% 81.3% 93.6%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Northern Iowa (Home) - 33.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 71 - 8
Quad 34 - 85 - 16
Quad 45 - 59 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2024 75   @ Butler L 65-72 11%     0 - 1 +3.0 -2.4 +5.1
  Nov 16, 2024 238   Tulsa W 111-106 3OT 64%     1 - 1 -2.0 -0.7 -2.9
  Nov 19, 2024 200   Texas Arlington W 78-68 53%     2 - 1 +5.7 +0.4 +5.2
  Nov 24, 2024 107   High Point W 71-61 24%     3 - 1 +14.0 -1.0 +15.6
  Nov 25, 2024 176   Boston College L 74-76 OT 40%     3 - 2 -2.8 -2.9 +0.2
  Nov 26, 2024 114   South Dakota St. L 55-75 27%     3 - 3 -17.0 -13.1 -5.2
  Dec 01, 2024 315   @ Oral Roberts W 72-67 62%     4 - 3 -1.5 +0.1 -1.1
  Dec 07, 2024 210   Indiana St. L 77-80 56%     4 - 4 0 - 1 -8.1 +1.6 -9.7
  Dec 14, 2024 103   @ Washington St. L 78-91 16%     4 - 5 -6.0 +8.5 -14.6
  Dec 22, 2024 158   UC Santa Barbara W 68-56 45%     5 - 5 +9.9 +8.8 +3.9
  Dec 29, 2024 230   @ Evansville L 40-57 42%     5 - 6 0 - 2 -18.5 -25.3 +4.6
  Jan 01, 2025 226   Valparaiso L 72-73 60%     5 - 7 0 - 3 -7.0 +6.3 -13.4
  Jan 04, 2025 94   @ Bradley L 60-69 14%     5 - 8 0 - 4 -0.7 +0.2 -2.2
  Jan 07, 2025 123   Illinois-Chicago L 63-80 38%     5 - 9 0 - 5 -17.4 -2.3 -17.5
  Jan 11, 2025 183   @ Southern Illinois L 78-88 OT 32%     5 - 10 0 - 6 -8.7 +0.6 -8.6
  Jan 15, 2025 183   Southern Illinois L 51-73 51%     5 - 11 0 - 7 -25.6 -19.7 -7.5
  Jan 18, 2025 135   @ Illinois St. L 68-74 24%     5 - 12 0 - 8 -2.0 +2.5 -5.2
  Jan 21, 2025 108   @ Northern Iowa L 68-79 18%     5 - 13 0 - 9 -4.5 +7.0 -13.1
  Jan 25, 2025 73   Drake L 62-69 OT 21%     5 - 14 0 - 10 -1.9 +1.3 -4.3
  Jan 29, 2025 210   @ Indiana St. L 67-72 37%     5 - 15 0 - 11 -5.1 -2.0 -3.4
  Feb 01, 2025 171   Murray St. W 77-56 47%     6 - 15 1 - 11 +18.3 +4.2 +14.6
  Feb 05, 2025 108   Northern Iowa L 65-70 34%    
  Feb 08, 2025 140   @ Belmont L 72-79 23%    
  Feb 12, 2025 230   Evansville W 66-63 63%    
  Feb 16, 2025 123   @ Illinois-Chicago L 67-75 21%    
  Feb 19, 2025 226   @ Valparaiso L 69-71 40%    
  Feb 22, 2025 135   Illinois St. L 67-69 42%    
  Feb 26, 2025 140   Belmont L 74-76 44%    
  Mar 02, 2025 73   @ Drake L 54-67 10%    
Projected Record 9 - 20 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 0.1 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 1.2 0.1 2.8 10th
11th 0.5 3.9 8.0 5.5 0.7 0.0 18.6 11th
12th 3.9 14.7 25.5 22.8 9.5 1.4 0.0 77.7 12th
Total 3.9 14.7 26.0 26.7 17.7 8.4 2.3 0.4 0.1 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11 0.1% 0.1
8-12 0.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.0 0.0 0.4
7-13 2.3% 0.9% 0.9% 15.5 0.0 0.0 2.3
6-14 8.4% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 8.4
5-15 17.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 17.6
4-16 26.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 26.6
3-17 26.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 26.0
2-18 14.7% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 14.6
1-19 3.9% 3.9
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.9 0.0 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.0%