IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+0.2	#156
Expected Predictive Rating	+3.2	#114

Pace	65.8	#270
Improvement	+0.7	#142

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#270	D-	C+	F	A	B-
Defense	#78	B	C+	C+	C-	B

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	45%	#37	0.99	#344	+0.0	#174
2 Pt. Jumpers	19%	#204	0.74	#193	-0.8	#214
Three Pointers	36%	#284	0.94	#270	-3.8	#310
1st FG Attempt			0.93	#306	-4.6	#307
Freethrows	21.4	#15	74%	#159	15.7	#25
Second Chance	35.9%	#45	0.97	#278	0.35	#115
Turnovers					20.3%	#354
Total Offense					-3.4	#270

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	41%	#132	1.22	#264	-2.5	#262
2 Pt. Jumpers	27%	#29	0.69	#76	-1.7	#309
Three Pointers	32%	#357	0.80	#3	+8.2	#1
1st FG Attempt			0.94	#63	+4.0	#63
Freethrows	19.4	#286	70%	#83	13.6	#256
Second Chance	27.6%	#75	1.09	#250	0.30	#129
Turnovers					17.2%	#133
Total Defense					+3.6	#78

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	1.4%	#90	-1.5%	#65
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-10.2%	#333	-6.4%	#70
Possession Length	19.5	#347	16.4	#39
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.16	#209	0.25	#353
Improvement	+0.3	#160	+0.4	#162

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	19.8%	20.9%	14.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.6	13.6	13.9

.500 or above	96.5%	97.9%	89.8%
.500 or above in Conference	93.8%	96.0%	83.2%
Conference Champion	28.3%	31.3%	13.9%
Last Place in Conference	0.6%	0.2%	2.3%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	19.8%	20.9%	14.9%
Second Round	0.7%	0.8%	0.4%
Sweet Sixteen	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Southern Utah (Home) - 82.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 2	0 - 2
Quad 2	0 - 3	0 - 5
Quad 3	7 - 5	8 - 9
Quad 4	10 - 2	18 - 12

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Sat, Nov 8	51 @New Mexico	L	56 - 74	11%	-12	0 - 1		-4	-10	F	B-	F	+6	B	A+	B
Sat, Nov 15	179 Missouri St.	W	67 - 49	67%	+7	1 - 1		+14	-7	C	F	F	+21	A+	A+	A+
Tue, Nov 18	271 @Evansville	W	84 - 76	63%	+3	2 - 1		+5	+15	A+	A+	F	-10	C+	F	D-
Fri, Nov 21	190 Campbell	L	67 - 71	58%	+4	2 - 2		-6	-11	F	D+	F	+6	B	F	A+
Sat, Nov 22	217 @Weber St.	W	74 - 73	52%	+0	3 - 2		+1	+5	C	C	D	-4	C	F	C
Sat, Nov 29	105 Stephen F. Austin	W	66 - 61	45%	-3	4 - 2		+6	+5	C+	C	F	+2	B+	C+	B
Tue, Dec 2	145 @Arkansas St.	L	63 - 83	36%	-10	4 - 3		-16	-11	F	A+	D	-4	D	A+	C
Thu, Dec 11	218 @UT Rio Grande Valley	W	58 - 50	52%	+0	5 - 3		+8	-1	D	B-	F	+11	A+	A+	B-
Wed, Dec 17	77 @Stanford	L	60 - 76	16%	-12	5 - 4		-5	-5	C	F	D+	-1	C	C	B+
Mon, Dec 22	321 @Oral Roberts	W	69 - 57	75%	+6	6 - 4		+5	-4	D+	B-	F	+9	A+	B-	A-
Mon, Dec 29	189 Tarleton St.	L	63 - 69	69%	-6	6 - 5	0 - 1	-11	-8	F	D+	F	-3	C	C+	F
Thu, Jan 1	142 California Baptist	W	63 - 51	59%	+4	7 - 5	1 - 1	+10	-4	F	B	D+	+15	B+	A+	A+
Sat, Jan 3	284 @Southern Utah	W	86 - 77	65%	+1	8 - 5	2 - 1	+5	+10	A+	D-	F	-5	D	C+	C
Sat, Jan 10	258 Abilene Christian	W	82 - 72	79%	+6	9 - 5	3 - 1	+2	+12	D+	A+	C+	-9	F	D-	D+
Thu, Jan 15	233 @Utah Tech	W	56 - 52	55%	+5	10 - 5	4 - 1	+3	-15	F	F	F	+18	A+	D+	F
Sat, Jan 17	107 @Utah Valley	L	74 - 86	25%	-14	10 - 6	4 - 2	-5	+6	F	A+	D-	-11	B-	F	F
Wed, Jan 21	189 Tarleton St.	W	71 - 64	69%	+1	11 - 6	5 - 2	+2	-1	F	C-	C	+4	B	A+	A+
Thu, Jan 29	284 Southern Utah	W	75 - 65	83%
Sat, Jan 31	142 California Baptist	W	66 - 64	59%
Thu, Feb 5	233 @Utah Tech	W	69 - 68	55%
Sat, Feb 7	107 @Utah Valley	L	67 - 74	26%
Thu, Feb 12	258 @Abilene Christian	W	67 - 65	59%
Sat, Feb 14	284 Southern Utah	W	75 - 65	83%
Thu, Feb 19	233 Utah Tech	W	72 - 65	75%
Sat, Feb 21	107 Utah Valley	L	70 - 71	46%
Thu, Feb 26	142 @California Baptist	L	63 - 67	36%
Thu, Mar 5	189 @Tarleton St.	L	71 - 72	47%
Sat, Mar 7	258 @Abilene Christian	W	67 - 65	58%
Totals						17 - 11	11 - 7	+0	-3	D-	C+	F	+4	B	C+	C+

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Western Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st											0.1	1.7	6.8	10.0	6.7	2.6	0.4			28.3	1st
2nd									0.0	0.5	5.5	13.2	12.8	4.7	0.5					37.1	2nd
3rd									0.6	5.8	10.3	6.0	0.9	0.0						23.7	3rd
4th								0.2	2.5	3.8	1.2	0.1								7.8	4th
5th							0.0	0.7	1.4	0.3	0.0									2.4	5th
6th						0.0	0.2	0.4	0.1											0.7	6th
7th						0.0	0.1	0.0												0.2	7th

Total						0.0	0.3	1.4	4.6	10.3	17.1	20.9	20.6	14.6	7.2	2.6	0.4				Total

Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2	100.0%	0.4	0.4
15-3	100.0%	2.6	2.5	0.1
14-4	93.1%	6.7	5.4	1.3
13-5	67.9%	10.0	5.8	4.0	0.2
12-6	33.2%	6.8	2.3	3.5	1.0	0.0
11-7	8.0%	1.7	0.2	0.7	0.7	0.1	0.0
10-8	0.6%	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
9-9	0.0%

Total	28.3%	28.3	16.7	9.5	2.0	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2	0.4%	44.0%	44.0%		11.9											0.0	0.1	0.0				0.2
15-3	2.6%	36.2%	36.2%		12.6											0.0	0.4	0.5	0.1			1.6
14-4	7.2%	34.3%	34.3%		13.1												0.4	1.4	0.7	0.0		4.7
13-5	14.6%	29.4%	29.4%		13.3												0.3	2.3	1.6	0.1		10.3
12-6	20.6%	24.2%	24.2%		13.6												0.1	1.9	2.5	0.4		15.6
11-7	20.9%	18.2%	18.2%		13.9												0.0	0.9	2.2	0.7		17.1
10-8	17.1%	12.3%	12.3%		14.1												0.0	0.3	1.1	0.6	0.0	15.0
9-9	10.3%	8.1%	8.1%		14.6													0.0	0.3	0.5	0.0	9.4
8-10	4.6%	3.5%	3.5%		15.2														0.0	0.1	0.0	4.4
7-11	1.4%	5.1%	5.1%		15.6															0.0	0.0	1.3
6-12	0.3%	1.7%	1.7%		16.0																0.0	0.3
5-13	0.0%																					0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	19.8%	19.8%	0.0%	13.6																	80.2	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	11	12	13
Win Out	0.2%	100.0%	11.9	16.2	75.7	8.1
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship	0.1%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final	0.1%