Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.5#145
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#227
Pace74.5#56
Improvement+2.9#29

Offense
Total Offense+2.5#107
First Shot+2.0#114
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#154
Layup/Dunks-4.5#321
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#308
3 Pt Jumpshots+8.6#9
Freethrows+0.3#164
Improvement-0.6#241

Defense
Total Defense-2.0#234
First Shot+1.6#121
After Offensive Rebounds-3.6#356
Layups/Dunks-1.1#213
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#38
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#76
Freethrows-1.9#306
Improvement+3.5#3
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.5% 17.4% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 13.5 14.3
.500 or above 51.1% 72.0% 46.4%
.500 or above in Conference 75.8% 83.3% 74.1%
Conference Champion 16.1% 22.0% 14.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 2.1% 3.9%
First Four0.6% 0.1% 0.6%
First Round13.3% 17.3% 12.4%
Second Round1.0% 1.7% 0.9%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Away) - 18.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 5
Quad 34 - 74 - 13
Quad 410 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 101   Louisiana Tech L 77-92 44%     0 - 1 -12.9 +9.2 -22.8
  Nov 13, 2024 76   @ USC L 95-98 17%     0 - 2 +7.5 +15.8 -8.0
  Nov 19, 2024 194   @ Missouri St. L 68-78 46%     0 - 3 -8.4 -3.4 -4.9
  Nov 26, 2024 124   Murray St. L 66-79 43%     0 - 4 -10.6 -7.2 -3.1
  Nov 27, 2024 273   Austin Peay W 68-58 74%     1 - 4 +3.9 +2.9 +2.2
  Nov 28, 2024 99   Rhode Island L 78-83 32%     1 - 5 +0.5 +4.5 -3.9
  Dec 02, 2024 329   @ Louisiana Monroe W 84-70 76%     2 - 5 +7.1 +6.2 +0.3
  Dec 12, 2024 109   @ Arkansas St. L 79-83 27%     2 - 6 +2.8 +10.0 -7.1
  Dec 14, 2024 329   Louisiana Monroe W 77-68 89%     3 - 6 -3.9 +0.5 -4.3
  Dec 18, 2024 290   Evansville W 80-54 83%     4 - 6 +16.2 +8.2 +9.5
  Dec 21, 2024 81   @ Liberty L 68-77 18%    
  Dec 29, 2024 139   @ Texas St. L 74-78 37%    
  Jan 04, 2025 286   @ Tarleton St. W 75-71 66%    
  Jan 09, 2025 287   @ Utah Tech W 80-76 65%    
  Jan 11, 2025 218   @ Southern Utah W 80-79 50%    
  Jan 16, 2025 148   Utah Valley W 78-75 62%    
  Jan 23, 2025 170   Seattle W 79-75 65%    
  Jan 25, 2025 207   @ Abilene Christian L 77-78 49%    
  Jan 30, 2025 218   Southern Utah W 83-77 71%    
  Feb 01, 2025 287   Utah Tech W 83-73 82%    
  Feb 06, 2025 148   @ Utah Valley L 75-78 39%    
  Feb 08, 2025 170   @ Seattle L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 13, 2025 176   California Baptist W 79-75 66%    
  Feb 15, 2025 102   Grand Canyon L 79-81 44%    
  Feb 22, 2025 286   Tarleton St. W 78-68 82%    
  Feb 27, 2025 102   @ Grand Canyon L 76-84 25%    
  Mar 01, 2025 207   Abilene Christian W 80-74 69%    
  Mar 08, 2025 176   @ California Baptist L 76-78 44%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.8 4.9 4.4 2.6 0.8 0.1 16.1 1st
2nd 0.0 1.3 5.9 7.7 4.1 1.0 0.1 20.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.9 7.2 2.4 0.3 17.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.4 6.6 1.7 0.1 14.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 3.9 5.8 1.4 0.0 11.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.7 4.4 1.4 0.1 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.9 2.9 1.0 0.1 6.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.7 0.7 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.7 9th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.2 6.8 10.2 13.9 15.3 15.3 13.0 9.3 5.5 2.6 0.8 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.8    0.8 0.0
14-2 96.3% 2.6    2.2 0.3
13-3 81.5% 4.4    3.2 1.2 0.1
12-4 52.4% 4.9    2.3 2.2 0.4 0.0
11-5 21.5% 2.8    0.6 1.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
10-6 3.5% 0.5    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 16.1% 16.1 9.2 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 41.5% 41.5% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.8% 49.0% 49.0% 12.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.4
14-2 2.6% 39.7% 39.7% 13.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.6
13-3 5.5% 34.7% 34.7% 13.4 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 3.6
12-4 9.3% 27.9% 27.9% 13.7 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.3 0.0 6.7
11-5 13.0% 22.1% 22.1% 14.1 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.9 0.0 10.1
10-6 15.3% 13.8% 13.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.1 0.1 13.2
9-7 15.3% 9.0% 9.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 13.9
8-8 13.9% 5.0% 5.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 13.2
7-9 10.2% 3.1% 3.1% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.3 9.8
6-10 6.8% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1 6.7
5-11 4.2% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.1
4-12 2.0% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-13 0.8% 0.8
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16
Total 100% 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.5 3.7 1.2 86.5 0.0%