Texas Arlington
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#200
Expected Predictive Rating-3.3#222
Pace69.4#148
Improvement-0.9#234

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#150
First Shot-0.3#186
After Offensive Rebound+1.4#104
Layup/Dunks-3.7#308
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#293
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#45
Freethrows+0.4#154
Improvement-1.6#282

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#261
First Shot+0.1#175
After Offensive Rebounds-3.1#350
Layups/Dunks-0.4#181
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#73
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#140
Freethrows-2.0#314
Improvement+0.7#150
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.4% 4.7% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.7 15.3
.500 or above 15.8% 31.5% 10.0%
.500 or above in Conference 42.7% 68.4% 33.4%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.2% 0.1% 1.6%
First Four0.7% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round3.1% 4.7% 2.6%
Second Round0.1% 0.3% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Utah Valley (Away) - 26.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 74 - 12
Quad 410 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 113   Louisiana Tech L 77-92 40%     0 - 1 -14.3 +8.3 -23.3
  Nov 13, 2024 54   @ USC L 95-98 10%     0 - 2 +9.4 +15.8 -6.0
  Nov 19, 2024 223   @ Missouri St. L 68-78 47%     0 - 3 -10.9 -5.1 -5.7
  Nov 26, 2024 171   Murray St. L 66-79 44%     0 - 4 -13.3 -9.0 -3.9
  Nov 27, 2024 296   Austin Peay W 68-58 71%     1 - 4 +2.6 +0.7 +3.0
  Nov 28, 2024 121   Rhode Island L 78-83 34%     1 - 5 -2.7 +3.6 -6.0
  Dec 02, 2024 328   @ Louisiana Monroe W 84-70 72%     2 - 5 +6.0 +5.4 +0.1
  Dec 12, 2024 93   @ Arkansas St. L 79-83 17%     2 - 6 +4.4 +9.8 -5.3
  Dec 14, 2024 328   Louisiana Monroe W 77-68 85%     3 - 6 -4.0 +0.2 -4.1
  Dec 18, 2024 230   Evansville W 80-54 67%     4 - 6 +19.6 +11.7 +9.4
  Dec 21, 2024 90   @ Liberty L 56-79 16%     4 - 7 -14.3 -8.9 -6.2
  Dec 29, 2024 184   @ Texas St. W 80-72 38%     5 - 7 +9.2 +8.6 +0.9
  Jan 04, 2025 247   @ Tarleton St. L 74-77 53%     5 - 8 0 - 1 -5.6 +5.1 -10.8
  Jan 09, 2025 292   @ Utah Tech L 62-74 61%     5 - 9 0 - 2 -16.6 -11.1 -5.9
  Jan 11, 2025 268   @ Southern Utah L 68-73 57%     5 - 10 0 - 3 -8.5 -6.2 -2.3
  Jan 16, 2025 132   Utah Valley L 83-85 OT 46%     5 - 11 0 - 4 -2.9 +4.4 -7.0
  Jan 23, 2025 162   Seattle W 65-56 52%     6 - 11 1 - 4 +6.7 +2.7 +5.6
  Jan 25, 2025 242   @ Abilene Christian W 79-76 OT 52%     7 - 11 2 - 4 +0.7 +7.6 -7.0
  Jan 30, 2025 268   Southern Utah W 70-68 74%     8 - 11 3 - 4 -6.5 +1.0 -7.3
  Feb 01, 2025 292   Utah Tech W 73-71 77%     9 - 11 4 - 4 -7.6 +6.9 -14.2
  Feb 06, 2025 132   @ Utah Valley L 70-76 27%    
  Feb 08, 2025 162   @ Seattle L 70-75 32%    
  Feb 13, 2025 161   California Baptist W 74-73 53%    
  Feb 15, 2025 74   Grand Canyon L 74-81 28%    
  Feb 22, 2025 247   Tarleton St. W 72-66 73%    
  Feb 27, 2025 74   @ Grand Canyon L 71-83 13%    
  Mar 01, 2025 242   Abilene Christian W 75-70 71%    
  Mar 08, 2025 161   @ California Baptist L 71-76 31%    
Projected Record 12 - 16 7 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.9 7.6 3.6 0.4 14.6 3rd
4th 0.0 4.0 13.0 4.9 0.4 22.4 4th
5th 0.0 4.1 15.7 7.6 0.6 27.9 5th
6th 0.0 2.2 11.5 7.2 0.5 21.4 6th
7th 0.4 5.0 4.5 0.4 10.3 7th
8th 0.7 1.1 0.2 2.0 8th
9th 0.2 0.2 9th
Total 1.3 8.3 20.3 27.4 24.0 13.3 4.6 0.8 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 50.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-5 7.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0
10-6 0.2% 0.0    0.0
9-7 0.0%
8-8 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
11-5 0.8% 20.7% 20.7% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
10-6 4.6% 11.6% 11.6% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 4.0
9-7 13.3% 6.9% 6.9% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.1 12.3
8-8 24.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.2 0.0 0.6 0.2 23.2
7-9 27.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.8 0.1 0.4 26.9
6-10 20.3% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.3 20.0
5-11 8.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 8.2
4-12 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 1.3
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.0 96.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%