Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
88 Utah Valley 53.8%   13   8 - 3 1 - 0 22 - 6 15 - 3 +6.6      +1.3 134 +5.3 50 70.9 140 +7.9 77 +13.9 2
134 California Baptist 19.0%   10 - 4 0 - 1 21 - 10 11 - 7 +1.7      +0.3 154 +1.4 119 65.1 293 +6.5 86 -5.6 5
164 Tarleton St. 11.2%   6 - 4 1 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 8 -0.6      -1.7 211 +1.0 127 73.4 69 +6.3 88 +16.8 1
182 Texas Arlington 7.9%   6 - 5 0 - 1 15 - 13 9 - 9 -1.4      -3.8 276 +2.4 102 65.2 290 +1.0 151 -18.8 7
203 Abilene Christian 5.3%   5 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 10 -2.9      -3.8 278 +0.9 132 66.4 260 +0.5 159 0.0 4
245 Utah Tech 2.7%   5 - 7 1 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 11 -4.7      -2.8 244 -2.0 237 68.0 225 -3.6 225 +1.8 3
328 Southern Utah 0.2%   1 - 10 0 - 1 4 - 24 3 - 15 -10.4      -6.8 337 -3.6 296 73.1 79 -14.4 343 -16.9 6




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Dec 29 134 California Baptist 66 88 Utah Valley 73   
Mon, Dec 29 164 Tarleton St. 69 182 Texas Arlington 63   
Mon, Dec 29 328 Southern Utah 66 245 Utah Tech 80   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Jan 1 134 California Baptist 67 182 Texas Arlington 66 50%   
Thu, Jan 1 164 Tarleton St. 71 88 Utah Valley 75 66%   
Thu, Jan 1 203 Abilene Christian 71 245 Utah Tech 67 68%   
Sat, Jan 3 134 California Baptist 71 164 Tarleton St. 72 53%   
Sat, Jan 3 203 Abilene Christian 65 88 Utah Valley 72 73%   
Sat, Jan 3 328 Southern Utah 66 182 Texas Arlington 72 72%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 1.3 78.6 15.0 4.5 1.4 0.5 0.1 0.1
California Baptist 2.7 14.9 37.4 23.2 13.7 7.4 3.0 0.5
Tarleton St. 3.1 11.7 26.4 25.9 17.8 11.8 5.5 1.0
Texas Arlington 4.0 3.8 13.9 19.8 24.0 21.1 14.2 3.2
Abilene Christian 4.3 2.8 11.4 17.8 21.8 22.9 18.5 4.9
Utah Tech 4.8 1.1 5.8 11.6 17.4 25.7 31.2 7.2
Southern Utah 6.6 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.4 6.0 17.9 72.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 15 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.2 4.6 8.3 12.4 16.6 20.0 17.9 12.4 4.3
California Baptist 11 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.1 3.9 7.3 10.3 14.4 15.9 15.8 13.5 9.3 4.5 1.5 0.2
Tarleton St. 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.9 4.2 7.0 10.5 13.0 15.1 15.1 12.4 9.2 6.0 3.0 1.2 0.3 0.1
Texas Arlington 9 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.9 6.1 8.6 13.2 15.4 15.2 12.9 10.5 7.5 3.6 1.7 0.5 0.2
Abilene Christian 8 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.2 4.7 7.7 11.1 13.9 14.8 14.0 12.0 8.9 5.4 2.5 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
Utah Tech 7 - 11 0.3 1.5 4.4 8.3 12.0 15.2 15.9 14.5 11.7 7.9 4.5 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 3 - 15 6.1 14.7 19.0 19.9 15.8 11.0 6.5 3.7 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 78.6% 68.6 8.8 1.0 0.1
California Baptist 14.9% 8.7 5.3 0.8 0.1
Tarleton St. 11.7% 7.3 3.7 0.6 0.1
Texas Arlington 3.8% 1.9 1.4 0.5 0.1
Abilene Christian 2.8% 1.4 0.9 0.4 0.1
Utah Tech 1.1% 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 53.8% 53.7% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 6.2 24.7 18.1 3.6 0.2 46.3 0.1%
California Baptist 19.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 3.8 9.0 4.7 1.0 0.1 81.0 0.0%
Tarleton St. 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 4.3 3.9 1.6 0.3 88.8 0.0%
Texas Arlington 7.9% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 2.2 2.7 1.9 0.6 92.1 0.0%
Abilene Christian 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.7 1.7 0.8 94.7 0.0%
Utah Tech 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 1.2 97.3 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 53.8% 0.0% 53.7% 8.7% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 19.0% 0.0% 19.0% 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 11.2% 0.2% 11.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 7.9% 0.3% 7.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 5.3% 0.5% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 2.7% 0.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.9 99.1 0.0
2nd Round 11.0% 0.1 89.0 11.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.9% 0.0 98.1 1.9
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0