Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
107 Utah Valley 45.0%   13   12 - 5 5 - 2 +4.2      +1.5 127 +2.7 100 72.3 89 +4.8 96 +1.4 2
142 California Baptist 20.4%   14 - 6 4 - 3 +1.0      -0.5 179 +1.5 121 63.3 325 +4.2 102 -0.2 3
156 Texas Arlington 19.8%   11 - 6 5 - 2 +0.2      -3.4 270 +3.6 78 65.8 270 +3.2 114 +2.8 1
189 Tarleton St. 7.3%   7 - 9 2 - 5 -1.8      -1.1 194 -0.8 196 75.5 38 -2.0 205 -6.3 7
233 Utah Tech 4.0%   7 - 11 3 - 4 -4.0      -2.5 241 -1.5 220 68.0 212 -3.3 219 -2.5 5
258 Abilene Christian 2.3%   7 - 9 2 - 4 -5.2      -4.3 291 -0.9 203 66.5 245 -2.5 211 -5.2 6
284 Southern Utah 1.1%   4 - 13 3 - 4 -6.9      -5.3 308 -1.6 224 73.9 62 -7.6 289 -2.5 4


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 21 189 Tarleton St. 64 156 Texas Arlington 71   
Wed, Jan 21 284 Southern Utah 84 107 Utah Valley 70   
Wed, Jan 21 142 California Baptist 73 233 Utah Tech 64   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 24 142 California Baptist 70 107 Utah Valley 71 51%   
Sat, Jan 24 284 Southern Utah 71 233 Utah Tech 77 71%   
Mon, Jan 26 258 Abilene Christian 71 189 Tarleton St. 77 73%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 1.5 68.3 21.3 7.7 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 2.5 20.9 32.7 30.2 10.8 3.8 1.4 0.3
Texas Arlington 2.2 28.3 37.1 23.7 7.8 2.4 0.7 0.2
Tarleton St. 4.6 1.2 5.2 14.2 28.2 25.0 16.6 9.8
Utah Tech 4.6 1.6 5.6 13.4 26.9 24.5 17.7 10.2
Abilene Christian 5.4 0.4 2.3 6.8 15.8 22.0 26.5 26.3
Southern Utah 5.6 0.2 1.7 5.3 13.6 20.7 27.7 30.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 13 - 5 20 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.5 6.1 11.9 19.1 22.9 20.7 12.2 3.7
California Baptist 11 - 7 21 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.6 6.9 12.9 19.2 22.7 18.5 11.1 4.3 0.9
Texas Arlington 11 - 7 17 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.4 4.6 10.3 17.1 20.9 20.6 14.6 7.2 2.6 0.4
Tarleton St. 8 - 10 13 - 14 0.1 0.8 2.9 7.7 14.3 19.9 21.3 17.2 10.2 4.5 1.1 0.2
Utah Tech 8 - 10 12 - 17 0.5 2.9 8.4 15.1 20.3 20.3 16.0 9.9 4.5 1.7 0.4 0.0
Abilene Christian 6 - 12 11 - 17 0.7 3.5 9.5 16.8 21.1 19.8 14.7 8.2 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 6 - 12 7 - 21 3.5 11.3 19.4 23.1 19.0 12.6 7.2 2.8 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 68.3% 52.8 13.3 2.1 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 20.9% 11.2 7.7 1.9 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 28.3% 16.7 9.5 2.0 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 1.2% 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 1.6% 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 45.0% 45.0% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 1.4 15.3 21.4 6.5 0.4 0.0 55.0 0.0%
California Baptist 20.4% 20.4% 0.0% 0.1 2.5 9.4 7.1 1.3 0.1 79.6 0.0%
Texas Arlington 19.8% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 7.4 8.5 2.4 0.1 80.2 0.0%
Tarleton St. 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.9 2.0 2.8 1.5 92.7 0.0%
Utah Tech 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 2.1 96.0 0.0%
Abilene Christian 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.8 1.1 97.7 0.0%
Southern Utah 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 1.1 98.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.5% 1.0 1.5 98.5
2nd Round 5.9% 0.1 94.1 5.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.8
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 45.0% 0.0% 45.0% 4.1% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 20.4% 0.0% 20.4% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 19.8% 0.0% 19.8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 7.3% 0.7% 7.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 4.0% 1.4% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 2.3% 0.7% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 1.1% 1.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%