Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
95 Utah Valley 56.3%   13   17 - 7 10 - 4 +5.9      +1.3 133 +4.5 60 71.2 109 +4.6 98 +2.9 2
138 California Baptist 20.8%   19 - 8 9 - 5 +1.3      -2.2 232 +3.5 81 65.1 270 +4.9 97 +2.7 3
180 Texas Arlington 7.7%   13 - 12 7 - 8 -1.2      -4.3 284 +3.0 91 64.9 276 -0.4 165 -3.1 4
189 Utah Tech 10.9%   14 - 12 10 - 5 -1.7      -0.1 166 -1.7 223 66.6 235 +0.8 146 +3.0 1
230 Tarleton St. 2.0%   10 - 14 5 - 10 -3.8      -4.6 291 +0.8 149 72.5 74 -3.4 226 -6.1 7
245 Abilene Christian 1.7%   10 - 14 5 - 9 -4.5      -5.6 314 +1.1 141 67.5 211 -3.6 228 -5.8 6
278 Southern Utah 0.7%   6 - 19 5 - 10 -6.5      -3.1 251 -3.4 278 74.3 43 -6.8 271 -4.7 5


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Feb 19 180 Texas Arlington 63 189 Utah Tech 50   
Thu, Feb 19 138 California Baptist 46 95 Utah Valley 65   
Thu, Feb 19 278 Southern Utah 74 230 Tarleton St. 78   
Sat, Feb 21 180 Texas Arlington 54 95 Utah Valley 66   
Sat, Feb 21 230 Tarleton St. 72 189 Utah Tech 80   
Sat, Feb 21 245 Abilene Christian 87 278 Southern Utah 83   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 26 138 California Baptist 67 180 Texas Arlington 62 70%   
Thu, Feb 26 245 Abilene Christian 67 189 Utah Tech 73 71%   
Thu, Feb 26 230 Tarleton St. 67 95 Utah Valley 80 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 1.1 90.9 6.3 2.8
California Baptist 2.0 21.4 57.1 21.3 0.2
Texas Arlington 4.0 0.2 2.2 94.5 3.0 0.2
Utah Tech 2.2 19.0 37.4 43.6
Tarleton St. 5.7 6.3 39.9 33.4 20.3
Abilene Christian 5.4 0.0 12.0 47.4 26.7 14.0
Southern Utah 5.6 5.1 45.7 31.4 17.8

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 13 - 5 20 - 8 0.1 2.1 13.4 40.1 44.3
California Baptist 12 - 6 22 - 9 0.6 6.0 22.4 40.4 30.5
Texas Arlington 8 - 10 14 - 14 19.0 41.0 31.8 8.2
Utah Tech 12 - 6 16 - 13 9.3 35.0 41.6 14.1
Tarleton St. 6 - 12 11 - 16 34.4 47.2 16.7 1.7
Abilene Christian 6 - 12 11 - 17 27.2 42.7 24.1 5.6 0.4
Southern Utah 6 - 12 7 - 21 32.1 44.3 20.5 3.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 90.9% 67.1 18.4 5.4
California Baptist 21.4% 3.2 12.8 5.4
Texas Arlington
Utah Tech 19.0% 3.9 9.6 5.4
Tarleton St.
Abilene Christian
Southern Utah


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 56.3% 56.3% 0.0% 13   2.0 32.6 19.8 1.9 0.0 43.7 0.0%
California Baptist 20.8% 20.8% 0.0% 0.0 4.5 12.4 3.8 0.1 79.2 0.0%
Texas Arlington 7.7% 7.7% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 2.4 3.5 0.6 92.3 0.0%
Utah Tech 10.9% 10.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.5 4.8 4.4 0.1 89.1 0.0%
Tarleton St. 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.7 98.0 0.0%
Abilene Christian 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 98.3 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.7 99.3 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 98.7
2nd Round 7.9% 0.1 92.1 7.9
Sweet Sixteen 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 56.3% 0.0% 56.3% 6.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 20.8% 0.0% 20.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 7.7% 0.1% 7.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 10.9% 0.0% 10.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 2.0% 1.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 1.7% 1.3% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.7% 0.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%