Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
100 Utah Valley 47.6%   13   10 - 4 3 - 1 21 - 7 14 - 4 +5.1      +1.2 131 +3.9 72 71.8 107 +6.2 82 +4.0 1
147 California Baptist 15.2%   11 - 6 1 - 3 20 - 11 10 - 8 +0.8      -0.2 177 +1.0 132 64.7 297 +3.4 120 -5.3 6
156 Texas Arlington 14.5%   8 - 5 2 - 1 16 - 12 10 - 8 -0.1      -3.5 272 +3.4 79 66.1 261 +2.6 127 -0.9 5
174 Tarleton St. 10.8%   7 - 6 2 - 2 14 - 13 9 - 9 -1.1      -0.6 188 -0.4 183 74.3 55 +1.9 142 -0.6 4
202 Abilene Christian 7.2%   7 - 6 2 - 1 14 - 14 9 - 9 -2.4      -2.6 249 +0.2 151 66.4 258 +0.9 153 +3.3 2
227 Utah Tech 4.7%   6 - 8 2 - 1 12 - 17 8 - 10 -3.6      -1.4 203 -2.2 240 67.6 229 -2.0 201 +2.6 3
329 Southern Utah 0.1%   1 - 12 0 - 3 4 - 24 3 - 15 -10.5      -6.3 328 -4.2 310 73.9 62 -14.9 345 -15.3 7




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Jan 8 147 California Baptist 84 227 Utah Tech 72   
Thu, Jan 8 202 Abilene Christian 84 174 Tarleton St. 80   
Thu, Jan 8 329 Southern Utah 72 100 Utah Valley 89   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 10 202 Abilene Christian 64 156 Texas Arlington 69 70%   
Sat, Jan 10 227 Utah Tech 68 100 Utah Valley 79 86%   
Sat, Jan 10 147 California Baptist 79 329 Southern Utah 65 90%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 1.4 75.8 15.1 5.4 2.4 1.0 0.3 0.0
California Baptist 3.3 9.2 24.5 23.4 19.2 14.4 8.8 0.6
Texas Arlington 3.2 13.7 25.0 20.9 16.8 13.7 9.4 0.5
Tarleton St. 3.6 8.2 20.2 21.8 19.7 17.1 11.9 1.0
Abilene Christian 3.8 6.1 18.6 18.6 19.4 20.2 15.8 1.4
Utah Tech 4.4 4.2 10.5 14.0 17.6 22.2 29.1 2.5
Southern Utah 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 2.2 8.4 88.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 14 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.8 4.2 8.2 13.5 18.0 20.2 18.6 11.0 3.8
California Baptist 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.8 7.8 12.4 16.5 19.1 16.6 12.7 6.4 2.2 0.4
Texas Arlington 10 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.6 3.7 7.5 11.4 15.8 16.8 16.7 11.9 8.0 3.9 1.7 0.4 0.1
Tarleton St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.3 5.4 9.8 14.5 16.9 17.7 14.3 10.0 5.5 2.2 0.5 0.1
Abilene Christian 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.2 3.5 7.0 11.6 15.8 17.3 16.2 12.6 7.9 4.3 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 8 - 10 0.2 0.9 3.3 7.3 12.2 15.6 17.2 15.7 12.1 8.1 4.7 1.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 3 - 15 7.7 17.4 22.3 20.2 14.9 8.9 4.8 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 75.8% 63.8 10.0 1.7 0.3 0.0
California Baptist 9.2% 4.4 3.5 1.1 0.2 0.0
Texas Arlington 13.7% 8.0 4.5 1.0 0.2 0.0
Tarleton St. 8.2% 4.2 3.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
Abilene Christian 6.1% 3.1 2.4 0.5 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 4.2% 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 0.0% 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 47.6% 47.6% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.1 3.2 18.8 19.4 5.7 0.3 52.4 0.0%
California Baptist 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.6 6.1 5.5 1.7 0.2 84.8 0.0%
Texas Arlington 14.5% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 5.1 5.4 2.5 0.4 85.5 0.0%
Tarleton St. 10.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 3.0 4.3 2.4 0.6 89.2 0.0%
Abilene Christian 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 2.6 2.4 0.8 92.9 0.0%
Utah Tech 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.9 1.6 95.4 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 47.6% 0.0% 47.6% 5.9% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 15.2% 0.1% 15.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 14.5% 0.1% 14.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 10.8% 0.2% 10.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 7.2% 0.4% 7.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 4.7% 1.1% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 99.2
2nd Round 8.1% 0.1 91.9 8.1
Sweet Sixteen 1.2% 0.0 98.8 1.2
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0