Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
102 Grand Canyon 41.0%   13   6 - 4 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 4 +5.1      +1.7 125 +3.4 88 75.9 32 +3.4 115 0.0 1
145 Texas Arlington 13.5%   4 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 7 +0.5      +2.5 107 -2.0 234 74.5 56 -3.6 227 0.0 1
148 Utah Valley 13.3%   5 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 13 9 - 7 +0.4      -2.3 240 +2.7 102 71.3 115 -0.7 178 0.0 1
170 Seattle 10.2%   2 - 8 0 - 0 11 - 17 9 - 7 -0.6      +0.2 166 -0.9 194 67.0 230 -7.0 286 0.0 1
176 California Baptist 9.4%   5 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 8 -0.9      +1.5 130 -2.4 248 64.2 305 -3.1 220 0.0 1
207 Abilene Christian 6.1%   4 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 8 -2.1      -1.7 223 -0.4 181 69.3 167 -2.0 197 0.0 1
218 Southern Utah 5.1%   5 - 5 0 - 0 13 - 14 7 - 9 -2.6      -0.9 195 -1.6 222 72.6 83 -0.8 179 0.0 1
286 Tarleton St. 0.7%   1 - 10 0 - 0 7 - 21 5 - 11 -6.8      -6.5 342 -0.2 174 66.5 247 -8.7 312 0.0 1
287 Utah Tech 0.7%   2 - 10 0 - 0 7 - 22 5 - 11 -6.8      -2.8 248 -4.1 301 68.8 184 -9.7 317 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Grand Canyon 1.9 57.8 19.8 10.2 5.7 3.2 1.9 0.8 0.4 0.1
Texas Arlington 3.7 16.1 20.2 17.0 14.5 11.8 8.9 6.2 3.7 1.7
Utah Valley 3.7 15.9 19.5 17.2 14.6 12.3 8.9 6.4 3.7 1.5
Seattle 4.2 11.1 15.7 15.9 15.2 13.6 11.3 8.7 5.7 2.8
California Baptist 4.3 9.9 14.6 15.6 15.0 14.1 12.2 9.5 6.0 3.0
Abilene Christian 4.9 6.5 10.8 12.6 13.6 14.4 14.1 12.9 9.5 5.6
Southern Utah 5.2 5.2 9.1 11.5 13.3 13.9 15.0 14.4 11.2 6.5
Tarleton St. 7.2 0.6 1.6 3.3 5.1 7.6 11.8 16.3 24.2 29.5
Utah Tech 7.2 0.5 1.8 3.1 5.0 7.6 11.9 16.7 24.2 29.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Grand Canyon 12 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 4.2 7.2 11.3 15.3 17.9 17.4 13.2 7.4 2.4
Texas Arlington 9 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 4.2 6.8 10.2 13.9 15.3 15.3 13.0 9.3 5.5 2.6 0.8 0.1
Utah Valley 9 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.1 7.0 10.6 14.1 15.9 14.9 13.0 9.0 5.4 2.2 0.7 0.1
Seattle 9 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.3 5.9 9.4 12.8 14.8 15.6 13.5 10.4 6.6 3.5 1.5 0.5 0.0
California Baptist 8 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.6 6.4 10.4 13.4 15.4 15.2 13.2 9.7 6.0 3.0 1.1 0.4 0.1
Abilene Christian 8 - 8 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 6.0 9.5 13.0 14.7 15.1 13.3 10.4 6.9 4.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
Southern Utah 7 - 9 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.8 7.0 11.0 14.1 15.2 14.4 12.6 9.2 5.8 3.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 5 - 11 1.1 4.1 8.9 14.1 16.7 16.7 14.2 10.7 6.7 3.9 1.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah Tech 5 - 11 1.0 4.0 9.1 13.7 16.9 16.8 14.6 10.5 6.6 3.7 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grand Canyon 57.8% 44.4 10.6 2.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 16.1% 9.2 5.2 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Utah Valley 15.9% 9.2 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Seattle 11.1% 6.1 3.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
California Baptist 9.9% 5.2 3.2 1.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
Abilene Christian 6.5% 3.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah 5.2% 2.7 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Tarleton St. 0.6% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Utah Tech 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grand Canyon 41.0% 41.0% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.9 13.9 16.9 6.8 0.9 0.0 59.0 0.0%
Texas Arlington 13.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 3.2 4.5 3.7 1.2 86.5 0.0%
Utah Valley 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.2 5.0 2.7 0.5 86.7 0.0%
Seattle 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.1 3.3 3.1 89.9 0.0%
California Baptist 9.4% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.7 3.5 3.1 0.9 90.6 0.0%
Abilene Christian 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.0 2.1 0.7 93.9 0.0%
Southern Utah 5.1% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 1.9 1.9 0.4 94.9 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.3 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 41.0% 0.0% 41.0% 7.2% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 13.5% 0.6% 13.3% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 13.3% 0.3% 13.2% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 10.2% 1.9% 9.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 9.4% 0.4% 9.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 6.1% 0.3% 6.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 5.1% 0.1% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.3% 1.0 1.7 98.3 0.0
2nd Round 10.9% 0.1 89.1 10.9
Sweet Sixteen 2.3% 0.0 97.7 2.3
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0