Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
74 Grand Canyon 58.7%   13   16 - 5 7 - 1 22 - 7 13 - 3 +7.5      +2.2 114 +5.3 49 76.2 25 +5.7 87 +7.4 2
132 Utah Valley 20.1%   13 - 7 7 - 1 19 - 9 13 - 3 +1.6      -1.9 227 +3.6 78 70.1 130 +4.4 102 +12.8 1
161 California Baptist 8.1%   11 - 10 4 - 3 16 - 14 9 - 7 +0.3      +0.9 154 -0.6 189 64.3 291 -1.0 185 -0.5 4
162 Seattle 7.4%   6 - 13 3 - 4 11 - 17 8 - 8 +0.2      -0.9 199 +1.1 142 66.7 224 -4.6 241 -4.3 6
200 Texas Arlington 3.4%   9 - 11 4 - 4 12 - 16 7 - 9 -1.8      +1.1 150 -2.9 261 69.4 148 -3.3 222 -4.2 5
242 Abilene Christian 0.6%   6 - 13 1 - 6 10 - 18 5 - 11 -4.8      -6.2 332 +1.3 139 70.5 121 -5.4 251 -10.6 8
247 Tarleton St. 1.2%   7 - 13 5 - 3 9 - 19 7 - 9 -5.1      -7.0 343 +1.9 118 65.8 245 -4.0 230 -0.4 3
268 Southern Utah 0.3%   6 - 13 1 - 7 9 - 18 4 - 12 -6.0      -4.1 286 -1.9 227 71.8 87 -6.1 266 -11.8 9
292 Utah Tech 0.2%   4 - 16 2 - 5 7 - 22 5 - 11 -7.1      -3.3 264 -3.7 284 67.4 207 -8.8 309 -5.7 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th
Grand Canyon 1.3 72.6 25.5 1.6 0.2 0.1
Utah Valley 1.6 47.1 49.4 2.9 0.6 0.1
California Baptist 3.5 1.7 7.6 52.5 22.8 9.1 4.2 1.7 0.2 0.0
Seattle 4.2 0.4 4.0 31.6 30.1 17.3 10.3 4.6 1.5 0.2
Texas Arlington 4.9 0.1 1.1 14.6 22.4 27.9 21.4 10.3 2.0 0.2
Abilene Christian 7.1 0.0 1.1 4.2 10.4 15.0 23.2 26.7 19.4
Tarleton St. 4.8 0.2 1.7 14.8 23.8 27.7 21.4 9.2 1.2 0.0
Southern Utah 7.9 0.1 0.9 3.3 8.2 17.9 30.1 39.5
Utah Tech 7.2 0.1 1.3 3.8 8.1 14.8 25.9 28.0 18.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0
Grand Canyon 13 - 3 0.0 0.4 1.5 6.2 16.8 27.6 30.7 16.9
Utah Valley 13 - 3 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.0 12.6 23.0 28.2 21.2 8.4
California Baptist 9 - 7 0.1 0.5 3.4 9.0 19.6 26.0 23.3 13.1 4.5 0.6
Seattle 8 - 8 0.1 0.7 3.7 9.9 17.8 23.9 21.7 15.2 6.0 1.0
Texas Arlington 7 - 9 1.3 8.3 20.3 27.4 24.0 13.3 4.6 0.8 0.1
Abilene Christian 5 - 11 0.8 5.1 12.9 21.3 23.7 19.1 11.3 4.6 1.1 0.2
Tarleton St. 7 - 9 6.3 20.3 28.2 24.3 13.4 5.6 1.6 0.2 0.1
Southern Utah 4 - 12 3.2 11.7 21.9 26.3 21.2 11.0 3.9 0.8 0.0
Utah Tech 5 - 11 3.7 13.1 22.8 25.5 19.4 10.4 4.0 0.9 0.2




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Grand Canyon 72.6% 51.7 20.2 0.7 0.0
Utah Valley 47.1% 26.5 19.9 0.8 0.0
California Baptist 1.7% 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.0
Seattle 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1
Abilene Christian
Tarleton St. 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Southern Utah
Utah Tech


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Grand Canyon 58.7% 58.7% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 4.4 29.3 21.4 3.4 0.1 41.3 0.0%
Utah Valley 20.1% 20.1% 0.0% 0.1 2.3 7.4 7.9 2.3 0.1 79.9 0.0%
California Baptist 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 3.5 2.8 0.5 91.9 0.0%
Seattle 7.4% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 3.0 3.0 92.6 0.0%
Texas Arlington 3.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 1.0 96.7 0.0%
Abilene Christian 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 99.4 0.0%
Tarleton St. 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.1 98.8 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Grand Canyon 58.7% 0.0% 58.7% 11.4% 2.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Valley 20.1% 0.0% 20.1% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 8.1% 0.1% 8.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Seattle 7.4% 1.6% 6.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 3.4% 0.7% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 1.2% 0.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.5% 1.0 1.5 98.5
2nd Round 13.5% 0.1 86.5 13.5
Sweet Sixteen 3.0% 0.0 97.0 3.0
Elite Eight 0.4% 0.0 99.6 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0