Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
120 Utah Valley 37.0%   14   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 5 +2.4      -0.2 166 +2.5 96 69.8 147 0.0 161 0.0 1
176 Abilene Christian 17.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 10 - 8 -1.4      -2.8 252 +1.4 116 72.0 86 0.0 161 0.0 1
181 California Baptist 15.9%   1 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 15 10 - 8 -1.7      -0.2 169 -1.5 207 65.1 281 +1.5 138 0.0 1
203 Texas Arlington 13.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -2.6      -1.3 205 -1.3 198 68.6 189 0.0 161 0.0 1
260 Utah Tech 6.5%   1 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -5.2      -3.7 288 -1.5 205 68.0 206 +9.3 22 0.0 1
269 Southern Utah 5.8%   0 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 18 7 - 11 -5.6      -3.8 289 -1.9 228 71.5 101 -2.8 288 0.0 1
293 Tarleton St. 4.0%   0 - 2 0 - 0 9 - 18 7 - 11 -6.7      -4.2 308 -2.5 260 64.8 292 +0.6 154 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 2.1 49.1 21.9 12.1 7.7 4.8 2.9 1.5
Abilene Christian 3.3 20.1 20.7 18.3 14.7 11.5 8.8 5.9
California Baptist 3.3 17.5 20.4 19.0 16.1 12.5 9.0 5.5
Texas Arlington 3.6 14.8 18.1 17.5 16.4 13.7 11.3 8.2
Utah Tech 4.5 6.2 10.6 13.8 16.1 17.7 18.5 17.1
Southern Utah 4.7 5.5 9.1 12.7 14.9 18.3 19.7 19.8
Tarleton St. 5.1 3.4 6.7 10.1 13.7 18.0 22.2 26.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.0 3.0 4.4 5.7 7.9 9.6 11.1 12.2 12.2 11.4 9.4 6.2 2.7
Abilene Christian 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 2.9 4.2 6.0 7.5 9.4 10.5 11.1 11.1 10.0 8.6 6.7 4.9 2.9 1.3 0.4
California Baptist 10 - 8 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.7 4.4 6.2 8.2 9.8 11.3 11.9 11.3 9.9 8.2 6.2 3.9 2.3 0.9 0.2
Texas Arlington 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.4 3.9 5.6 7.6 9.1 10.4 11.0 10.9 10.1 8.9 7.0 5.2 3.2 1.9 0.7 0.2
Utah Tech 8 - 10 0.4 1.4 3.3 5.5 7.7 9.8 11.2 11.3 11.1 10.4 8.5 7.0 5.0 3.4 2.0 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0
Southern Utah 7 - 11 0.5 1.8 3.9 6.3 8.7 10.5 11.3 11.7 10.9 9.4 8.4 6.1 4.4 2.8 1.8 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 7 - 11 0.9 2.9 5.3 8.1 10.5 11.9 12.4 12.0 10.3 8.3 6.5 4.6 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 49.1% 39.7 8.1 1.1 0.2 0.0
Abilene Christian 20.1% 14.4 4.7 0.9 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 17.5% 12.0 4.4 0.9 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 14.8% 10.0 3.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 6.2% 4.0 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 5.5% 3.4 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 3.4% 1.9 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 37.0% 37.0% 0.1% 14   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 2.5 8.4 10.2 8.0 5.1 2.2 63.0 0.1%
Abilene Christian 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 2.3 3.7 4.5 3.8 2.5 82.8 0.0%
California Baptist 15.9% 15.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.7 3.3 4.1 3.8 2.6 84.1 0.0%
Texas Arlington 13.7% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.3 2.7 3.4 3.3 2.8 86.3 0.0%
Utah Tech 6.5% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.6 1.9 1.7 93.5 0.0%
Southern Utah 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.6 2.3 94.2 0.0%
Tarleton St. 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 1.6 96.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 37.0% 1.2% 36.5% 4.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 17.2% 1.4% 16.6% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 15.9% 1.4% 15.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 13.7% 1.7% 13.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 6.5% 1.1% 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 5.8% 1.7% 5.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 4.0% 1.1% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 95.8% 1.0 4.2 95.7 0.1
2nd Round 8.0% 0.1 92.0 8.0 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.6% 0.0 98.4 1.6
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0