Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
90 Utah Valley 50.8%   13   3 - 3 0 - 0 20 - 8 14 - 4 +5.7      +1.5 127 +4.3 64 69.9 176 +3.5 125 0.0 1
130 California Baptist 24.7%   7 - 2 0 - 0 21 - 10 12 - 6 +2.1      -0.3 174 +2.3 102 65.1 296 +10.3 63 0.0 1
190 Texas Arlington 8.9%   4 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 9 -2.1      -2.8 244 +0.7 145 68.6 212 +0.9 161 0.0 1
202 Tarleton St. 7.6%   3 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 13 9 - 9 -2.6      -1.6 211 -0.9 197 70.6 158 +4.1 116 0.0 1
234 Abilene Christian 4.2%   3 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 17 8 - 10 -4.4      -5.4 319 +1.0 137 64.4 312 -2.2 201 0.0 1
254 Utah Tech 3.0%   3 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 19 7 - 11 -5.3      -3.6 261 -1.7 224 67.3 246 -6.4 267 0.0 1
320 Southern Utah 0.7%   1 - 6 0 - 0 6 - 22 4 - 14 -9.2      -5.9 329 -3.2 275 72.2 117 -12.0 325 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Dec 2 234 Abilene Christian 71 298 Pepperdine 63   
Tue, Dec 2 155 Arkansas St. 83 190 Texas Arlington 63   
Wed, Dec 3 52 San Diego St. 77 90 Utah Valley 66   
Wed, Dec 3 8 BYU 66 130 California Baptist 44   
Wed, Dec 3 55 Santa Clara 90 254 Utah Tech 80   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 119 Bowling Green 72 90 Utah Valley 71 52%   
Sat, Dec 6 130 California Baptist 70 117 Utah 74 66%   
Sat, Dec 6 234 Abilene Christian 62 116 New Mexico St. 66 68%   
Sat, Dec 6 163 Oregon St. 76 320 Southern Utah 65 86%   
Wed, Dec 10 167 Idaho St. 63 90 Utah Valley 72 82%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 1.5 68.8 19.8 7.0 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.1
California Baptist 2.3 26.8 38.2 18.7 9.6 4.5 1.9 0.4
Texas Arlington 3.7 7.4 17.0 24.5 20.8 15.8 10.5 4.1
Tarleton St. 3.9 5.9 15.0 22.2 21.7 17.5 12.3 5.4
Abilene Christian 4.5 2.8 8.9 16.2 20.0 22.1 19.5 10.4
Utah Tech 4.8 1.8 6.2 12.3 18.4 23.1 24.2 14.0
Southern Utah 6.1 0.3 1.3 3.4 6.9 13.7 23.8 50.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 14 - 4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.7 6.3 9.2 12.9 15.3 17.6 15.8 10.9 4.2
California Baptist 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.9 4.7 8.0 10.8 13.3 15.6 14.9 12.3 8.5 4.4 1.8 0.3
Texas Arlington 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.2 2.9 5.4 7.5 10.2 12.6 14.3 13.6 11.5 8.3 6.2 3.6 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.7 3.8 6.1 9.0 11.3 13.2 13.5 13.0 10.5 7.5 4.9 2.8 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.7 6.9 9.9 12.7 13.4 13.8 12.0 9.8 7.0 4.3 2.4 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Utah Tech 7 - 11 0.2 0.9 2.8 5.4 8.8 12.1 14.1 14.1 13.3 10.4 7.6 4.8 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Southern Utah 4 - 14 2.6 7.4 12.2 15.8 15.9 14.5 11.3 8.5 5.3 3.2 1.8 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 68.8% 58.4 9.5 0.9 0.1 0.0
California Baptist 26.8% 18.4 7.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
Texas Arlington 7.4% 4.4 2.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
Tarleton St. 5.9% 3.6 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
Abilene Christian 2.8% 1.5 1.0 0.3 0.0 0.0
Utah Tech 1.8% 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Southern Utah 0.3% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 50.8% 50.8% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 5.3 18.0 16.7 7.6 1.8 0.3 49.2 0.0%
California Baptist 24.7% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.8 6.5 9.8 5.9 1.4 0.2 75.3 0.0%
Texas Arlington 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.8 2.8 2.7 1.1 91.1 0.0%
Tarleton St. 7.6% 7.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.4 2.5 2.3 1.0 92.4 0.0%
Abilene Christian 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.4 1.3 95.8 0.0%
Utah Tech 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 97.0 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 50.8% 0.2% 50.8% 8.6% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 24.7% 0.0% 24.7% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 8.9% 0.6% 8.7% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 7.6% 0.5% 7.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 4.2% 0.9% 3.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 3.0% 1.2% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.5% 1.0 1.5 98.5 0.0
2nd Round 11.6% 0.1 88.4 11.6
Sweet Sixteen 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0