Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
91 Utah Valley 53.5%   13   15 - 6 8 - 3 +5.4      +1.8 121 +3.6 74 71.4 111 +4.7 95 +2.4 2
138 California Baptist 23.8%   18 - 6 8 - 3 +1.2      -1.9 216 +3.1 90 65.1 275 +5.9 87 +4.1 1
169 Texas Arlington 10.7%   12 - 9 6 - 5 -0.6      -2.9 251 +2.3 103 65.0 277 +1.4 139 -0.9 4
203 Utah Tech 6.9%   11 - 11 7 - 4 -2.7      -1.1 195 -1.6 225 67.6 213 -0.6 173 +1.6 3
214 Tarleton St. 3.2%   8 - 12 3 - 8 -3.0      -4.1 281 +1.2 133 73.7 57 -3.0 214 -6.6 6
260 Abilene Christian 1.1%   7 - 13 2 - 8 -5.6      -5.2 310 -0.4 182 66.9 232 -5.0 245 -9.6 7
284 Southern Utah 0.9%   5 - 16 4 - 7 -7.0      -4.7 299 -2.3 248 74.1 52 -7.2 277 -4.3 5


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Feb 12 203 Utah Tech 72 91 Utah Valley 77 69%   
Thu, Feb 12 260 Abilene Christian 65 169 Texas Arlington 67 58%   
Thu, Feb 12 138 California Baptist 74 284 Southern Utah 69 69%   
Sat, Feb 14 138 California Baptist 70 203 Utah Tech 69 53%   
Sat, Feb 14 260 Abilene Christian 71 214 Tarleton St. 70 51%   
Sat, Feb 14 284 Southern Utah 66 169 Texas Arlington 76 81%   
Mon, Feb 16 260 Abilene Christian 68 214 Tarleton St. 73 71%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th
Utah Valley 1.3 76.1 19.5 3.8 0.6
California Baptist 1.8 37.3 51.1 9.6 2.0 0.1
Texas Arlington 3.3 3.2 13.4 42.5 36.7 3.5 0.6 0.0
Utah Tech 3.1 6.0 14.9 43.9 32.8 2.2 0.2
Tarleton St. 5.4 0.1 1.5 9.0 51.1 26.0 12.4
Abilene Christian 6.3 0.4 2.7 19.0 27.1 50.8
Southern Utah 5.6 0.1 1.3 6.3 37.6 40.8 13.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Utah Valley 13 - 5 20 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.4 5.9 16.0 28.3 31.6 16.6
California Baptist 12 - 6 22 - 9 0.1 1.4 6.2 16.4 27.7 28.6 16.1 3.5
Texas Arlington 10 - 8 16 - 12 0.6 4.0 12.0 23.8 27.8 20.8 9.0 2.0
Utah Tech 10 - 8 14 - 15 1.9 10.4 22.7 28.3 21.5 10.9 3.8 0.5
Tarleton St. 6 - 12 11 - 16 1.0 6.2 17.7 27.4 26.5 16.1 4.5 0.6
Abilene Christian 5 - 13 10 - 18 3.4 12.6 23.8 27.1 19.9 9.6 3.2 0.5 0.0
Southern Utah 6 - 12 7 - 21 10.0 26.1 29.1 21.3 9.8 3.1 0.7 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Utah Valley 76.1% 57.5 16.4 2.1 0.1
California Baptist 37.3% 19.7 15.5 2.0 0.1
Texas Arlington 3.2% 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.1
Utah Tech 6.0% 2.0 2.5 1.4 0.1
Tarleton St.
Abilene Christian
Southern Utah


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Utah Valley 53.5% 53.5% 0.0% 13   2.4 24.1 23.3 3.7 0.1 46.5 0.0%
California Baptist 23.8% 23.8% 0.0% 0.1 3.9 12.1 7.1 0.7 0.0 76.2 0.0%
Texas Arlington 10.7% 10.7% 0.0% 0.5 3.3 4.6 2.1 0.1 89.4 0.0%
Utah Tech 6.9% 6.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.5 1.1 93.1 0.0%
Tarleton St. 3.2% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.8 96.9 0.0%
Abilene Christian 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.0 98.9 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.9 99.1 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 98.8% 1.0 1.2 98.8 0.0
2nd Round 7.3% 0.1 92.7 7.3
Sweet Sixteen 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Utah Valley 53.5% 0.0% 53.5% 5.9% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
California Baptist 23.8% 0.0% 23.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Texas Arlington 10.7% 0.0% 10.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah Tech 6.9% 0.4% 6.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Tarleton St. 3.2% 1.1% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Abilene Christian 1.1% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Southern Utah 0.9% 0.9% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%