Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.4#148
Expected Predictive Rating-0.7#178
Pace71.3#115
Improvement-1.0#256

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#240
First Shot-3.4#279
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#123
Layup/Dunks+1.7#121
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.7#322
Freethrows+0.0#177
Improvement-2.6#338

Defense
Total Defense+2.7#102
First Shot-0.5#185
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#11
Layups/Dunks-1.3#222
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#151
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.3#137
Freethrows-0.9#252
Improvement+1.6#72
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 13.3% 15.2% 11.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.6 14.1
.500 or above 64.0% 75.5% 52.8%
.500 or above in Conference 75.3% 79.4% 71.4%
Conference Champion 15.9% 18.6% 13.3%
Last Place in Conference 3.3% 2.5% 4.1%
First Four0.3% 0.1% 0.4%
First Round13.2% 15.1% 11.4%
Second Round1.1% 1.3% 0.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Weber St. (Away) - 49.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 76 - 11
Quad 410 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 140   UTEP W 89-60 59%     1 - 0 +27.0 +9.0 +15.3
  Nov 14, 2024 278   @ North Dakota L 71-77 64%     1 - 1 -9.4 -6.8 -2.6
  Nov 22, 2024 124   @ Murray St. W 77-75 31%     2 - 1 +7.4 +9.5 -2.0
  Nov 26, 2024 341   West Georgia W 77-74 86%     3 - 1 -8.4 -3.2 -5.3
  Nov 27, 2024 112   @ Samford L 76-84 28%     3 - 2 -1.6 -4.3 +3.4
  Nov 28, 2024 130   North Dakota St. L 63-83 44%     3 - 3 -18.2 -1.8 -19.9
  Dec 03, 2024 94   @ Stanford L 63-77 21%     3 - 4 -5.0 -10.1 +5.8
  Dec 07, 2024 115   @ James Madison L 61-78 29%     3 - 5 -10.8 -5.1 -7.1
  Dec 11, 2024 278   North Dakota W 80-57 82%     4 - 5 +13.6 +4.3 +10.6
  Dec 14, 2024 167   @ Jacksonville St. L 66-70 42%     4 - 6 -1.6 -5.6 +3.9
  Dec 18, 2024 251   @ Idaho St. W 70-56 59%     5 - 6 +12.0 -2.8 +14.6
  Dec 21, 2024 208   @ Weber St. L 69-70 49%    
  Jan 04, 2025 207   Abilene Christian W 74-68 69%    
  Jan 09, 2025 102   Grand Canyon L 73-75 44%    
  Jan 11, 2025 176   California Baptist W 72-68 66%    
  Jan 16, 2025 145   @ Texas Arlington L 75-78 38%    
  Jan 18, 2025 287   Utah Tech W 77-67 83%    
  Jan 23, 2025 176   @ California Baptist L 69-71 44%    
  Jan 25, 2025 170   @ Seattle L 70-72 43%    
  Feb 01, 2025 102   @ Grand Canyon L 70-78 24%    
  Feb 06, 2025 145   Texas Arlington W 78-75 61%    
  Feb 08, 2025 286   Tarleton St. W 72-62 82%    
  Feb 15, 2025 218   @ Southern Utah L 73-74 50%    
  Feb 20, 2025 287   @ Utah Tech W 74-70 64%    
  Feb 22, 2025 170   Seattle W 73-69 64%    
  Mar 01, 2025 218   Southern Utah W 76-70 71%    
  Mar 06, 2025 207   @ Abilene Christian L 70-71 48%    
  Mar 08, 2025 286   @ Tarleton St. W 69-65 65%    
Projected Record 15 - 13 9 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.7 3.0 4.8 4.5 2.1 0.7 0.1 15.9 1st
2nd 0.0 1.4 5.6 7.5 4.0 0.9 0.1 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 6.4 6.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 17.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 5.4 6.6 1.7 0.1 14.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 4.2 6.0 1.5 0.1 12.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.8 4.4 1.3 0.0 8.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.1 1.2 0.0 6.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.6 0.6 0.0 3.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.5 9th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.0 4.1 7.0 10.6 14.1 15.9 14.9 13.0 9.0 5.4 2.2 0.7 0.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
15-1 100.0% 0.7    0.7 0.0
14-2 96.4% 2.1    1.9 0.2
13-3 82.5% 4.5    3.3 1.1 0.1
12-4 53.2% 4.8    2.4 2.0 0.4 0.0
11-5 23.1% 3.0    0.7 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0
10-6 4.6% 0.7    0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 15.9% 15.9 9.2 4.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.1% 52.8% 52.8% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-1 0.7% 46.1% 46.1% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4
14-2 2.2% 39.4% 39.4% 12.9 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 1.3
13-3 5.4% 33.5% 33.5% 13.2 0.2 1.0 0.5 0.0 3.6
12-4 9.0% 29.6% 29.6% 13.5 0.1 1.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 6.4
11-5 13.0% 22.0% 22.0% 13.8 0.1 0.9 1.5 0.4 0.0 10.1
10-6 14.9% 14.6% 14.6% 14.2 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.0 12.7
9-7 15.9% 7.9% 7.9% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.0 14.6
8-8 14.1% 5.3% 5.3% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 13.4
7-9 10.6% 3.1% 3.1% 15.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 10.2
6-10 7.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.8
5-11 4.1% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 4.1
4-12 2.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 2.0
3-13 0.7% 0.7
2-14 0.2% 0.2
1-15 0.0% 0.0
0-16 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 13.3% 13.3% 0.0% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.9 4.2 5.0 2.7 0.5 86.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 11.5 4.5 45.5 40.9 9.1