Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+5.7#90
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#125
Pace69.9#176
Improvement+3.0#21

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#127
First Shot-0.7#200
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#65
Layup/Dunks+7.9#9
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#352
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#293
Freethrows-0.8#219
Improvement-1.7#308

Defense
Total Defense+4.3#64
First Shot+4.6#48
After Offensive Rebounds-0.3#211
Layups/Dunks+2.6#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#258
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.2#49
Freethrows-1.3#260
Improvement+4.6#1
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 50.8% 55.0% 46.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.6 12.3 12.9
.500 or above 97.7% 99.2% 96.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.0% 98.8% 97.2%
Conference Champion 68.8% 73.8% 64.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round50.8% 54.9% 46.8%
Second Round8.6% 10.9% 6.5%
Sweet Sixteen2.0% 2.4% 1.6%
Elite Eight0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Final Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Bowling Green (Away) - 48.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 38 - 49 - 7
Quad 412 - 221 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 59 @Boise St. L 77-101 26%     0 - 1 -11.7 +7.4 -17.6
  Sat, Nov 15 179 @Fresno St. L 74-75 65%     0 - 2 +0.6 +2.0 -1.4
  Wed, Nov 19 125 UC Irvine W 79-72 72%     1 - 2 +6.8 +11.5 -4.7
  Tue, Nov 25 147 South Dakota St. W 75-52 69%     2 - 2 +23.7 +4.7 +19.0
  Wed, Nov 26 228 Samford W 89-45 82%     3 - 2 +40.0 +8.9 +29.0
  Wed, Dec 3 52 @San Diego St. L 66-77 24%     3 - 3 +2.0 -1.1 +3.2
  Sat, Dec 6 119 @Bowling Green L 71-72 49%    
  Wed, Dec 10 167 Idaho St. W 73-63 82%    
  Sat, Dec 13 148 UC Santa Barbara W 75-70 69%    
  Wed, Dec 17 192 Weber St. W 80-69 85%    
  Mon, Dec 29 130 California Baptist W 72-65 73%    
  Thu, Jan 1 202 @Tarleton St. W 75-70 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 234 @Abilene Christian W 70-63 75%    
  Thu, Jan 8 320 Southern Utah W 82-64 95%    
  Sat, Jan 10 254 Utah Tech W 77-63 90%    
  Sat, Jan 17 190 Texas Arlington W 76-65 83%    
  Wed, Jan 21 320 @Southern Utah W 79-67 86%    
  Sat, Jan 24 130 @California Baptist W 69-68 53%    
  Thu, Jan 29 202 @Tarleton St. W 75-70 69%    
  Thu, Feb 5 234 Abilene Christian W 73-60 88%    
  Sat, Feb 7 190 Texas Arlington W 76-65 83%    
  Thu, Feb 12 254 @Utah Tech W 74-66 76%    
  Thu, Feb 19 130 California Baptist W 72-65 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 190 @Texas Arlington W 73-68 66%    
  Thu, Feb 26 202 Tarleton St. W 78-67 84%    
  Sat, Feb 28 234 Abilene Christian W 73-60 87%    
  Thu, Mar 5 320 @Southern Utah W 79-67 85%    
  Sat, Mar 7 254 @Utah Tech W 74-66 76%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.1 6.8 11.9 16.7 15.7 10.9 4.2 68.8 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 3.2 5.7 5.8 3.4 0.9 0.1 19.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.0 2.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 7.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.0 0.2 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.7 6.3 9.2 12.9 15.3 17.6 15.8 10.9 4.2 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.2    4.2
17-1 100.0% 10.9    10.9
16-2 99.6% 15.7    15.3 0.4
15-3 94.6% 16.7    14.7 1.9
14-4 77.9% 11.9    8.9 3.0 0.1
13-5 52.6% 6.8    3.7 2.8 0.3
12-6 23.2% 2.1    0.6 1.1 0.4 0.0
11-7 7.2% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1
10-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 68.8% 68.8 58.4 9.5 0.9 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.2% 75.4% 75.0% 0.4% 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 1.4 0.8 0.1 0.0 1.0 1.6%
17-1 10.9% 69.1% 69.1% 0.1% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.4 4.1 0.8 0.1 3.4 0.2%
16-2 15.8% 64.3% 64.3% 12.2 1.1 5.8 2.8 0.3 0.0 5.6
15-3 17.6% 56.6% 56.6% 12.6 0.3 4.2 4.5 1.0 0.0 7.6
14-4 15.3% 50.7% 50.7% 13.0 0.1 2.0 4.0 1.6 0.1 7.6
13-5 12.9% 44.6% 44.6% 13.3 0.0 0.9 2.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 7.1
12-6 9.2% 36.0% 36.0% 13.6 0.2 1.3 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.9
11-7 6.3% 28.0% 28.0% 14.0 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 4.5
10-8 3.7% 22.7% 22.7% 14.4 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.0 2.9
9-9 2.0% 15.9% 15.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 1.7
8-10 1.1% 12.8% 12.8% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0
7-11 0.6% 9.0% 9.0% 15.9 0.0 0.0 0.5
6-12 0.2% 13.8% 13.8% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-13 0.1% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14 0.0% 0.0 0.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 50.8% 50.8% 0.0% 12.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 5.3 18.0 16.7 7.6 1.8 0.3 49.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.3% 100.0% 9.1 0.5 1.3 3.6 8.8 11.7 7.0 14.5 16.6 33.2 2.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2% 5.6% 11.0 5.6
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 2.1% 11.0 2.1