Utah Valley
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+6.6#85
Expected Predictive Rating+7.3#85
Pace70.6#149
Improvement+2.9#36

Offense
Total Offense+1.5#127
First Shot+0.0#174
After Offensive Rebound+1.5#77
Layup/Dunks+7.4#8
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.8#355
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#265
Freethrows-1.3#266
Improvement-0.9#242

Defense
Total Defense+5.1#49
First Shot+6.2#29
After Offensive Rebounds-1.1#268
Layups/Dunks+0.7#147
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#215
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#15
Freethrows-0.3#199
Improvement+3.8#6
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 53.7% 56.2% 45.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.2 12.2 12.6
.500 or above 99.7% 99.9% 99.1%
.500 or above in Conference 98.8% 99.4% 96.5%
Conference Champion 74.4% 81.0% 52.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round53.6% 56.2% 45.1%
Second Round9.4% 10.4% 6.2%
Sweet Sixteen1.9% 2.1% 1.1%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Home) - 77.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 11 - 3
Quad 310 - 311 - 6
Quad 411 - 123 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 51 @Boise St. L 77-101 27%     0 - 1 -10.9 +7.0 -16.3
  Sat, Nov 15 184 @Fresno St. L 74-75 70%     0 - 2 +0.3 +1.2 -0.9
  Wed, Nov 19 131 UC Irvine W 79-72 77%     1 - 2 +5.8 +9.3 -3.5
  Tue, Nov 25 172 South Dakota St. W 75-52 76%     2 - 2 +22.2 +1.5 +20.7
  Wed, Nov 26 227 Samford W 89-45 84%     3 - 2 +40.0 +9.1 +28.8
  Wed, Dec 3 52 @San Diego St. L 66-77 27%     3 - 3 +1.9 -0.2 +2.2
  Sat, Dec 6 117 @Bowling Green W 82-71 52%     4 - 3 +17.2 +12.8 +4.2
  Wed, Dec 10 175 Idaho St. W 73-69 84%     5 - 3 -0.1 -1.6 +1.6
  Sat, Dec 13 150 UC Santa Barbara W 68-53 72%     6 - 3 +15.7 -4.8 +21.0
  Wed, Dec 17 223 Weber St. W 90-74 89%     7 - 3 +9.2 +18.8 -8.5
  Mon, Dec 29 134 California Baptist W 74-66 77%    
  Thu, Jan 1 180 @Tarleton St. W 76-71 69%    
  Sat, Jan 3 204 @Abilene Christian W 72-66 73%    
  Thu, Jan 8 319 Southern Utah W 82-63 96%    
  Sat, Jan 10 251 Utah Tech W 79-64 91%    
  Sat, Jan 17 167 Texas Arlington W 73-63 83%    
  Wed, Jan 21 319 @Southern Utah W 79-66 88%    
  Sat, Jan 24 134 @California Baptist W 71-69 57%    
  Thu, Jan 29 180 @Tarleton St. W 76-71 68%    
  Thu, Feb 5 204 Abilene Christian W 75-63 87%    
  Sat, Feb 7 167 Texas Arlington W 73-63 82%    
  Thu, Feb 12 251 @Utah Tech W 76-67 79%    
  Thu, Feb 19 134 California Baptist W 74-66 76%    
  Sat, Feb 21 167 @Texas Arlington W 70-66 65%    
  Thu, Feb 26 180 Tarleton St. W 79-68 84%    
  Sat, Feb 28 204 Abilene Christian W 75-63 87%    
  Thu, Mar 5 319 @Southern Utah W 79-66 88%    
  Sat, Mar 7 251 @Utah Tech W 76-67 78%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 14 - 4




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 2.6 7.8 14.0 17.7 16.5 11.2 4.1 74.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.6 2.6 5.3 5.1 2.5 0.6 0.0 16.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.1 1.2 0.2 0.0 5.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.8 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 7th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 2.9 5.3 9.1 13.2 16.5 18.4 16.5 11.2 4.1 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 4.1    4.1
17-1 100.0% 11.2    11.2
16-2 99.7% 16.5    16.2 0.3
15-3 96.5% 17.7    16.2 1.5
14-4 84.7% 14.0    10.8 3.1 0.1
13-5 59.3% 7.8    4.6 2.8 0.4
12-6 28.9% 2.6    0.9 1.3 0.5 0.0
11-7 6.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.5% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 74.4% 74.4 63.9 9.2 1.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 4.1% 77.8% 77.2% 0.6% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 0.9 2.8%
17-1 11.2% 71.0% 70.8% 0.1% 11.6 0.0 0.1 3.4 4.2 0.3 3.2 0.4%
16-2 16.5% 63.5% 63.4% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 1.6 7.1 1.8 0.0 6.0 0.1%
15-3 18.4% 59.0% 59.0% 12.3 0.5 6.5 3.6 0.2 0.0 7.5
14-4 16.5% 52.8% 52.8% 12.6 0.1 3.9 4.3 0.4 0.0 7.8
13-5 13.2% 45.8% 45.8% 12.8 0.0 1.9 3.4 0.8 0.0 7.2
12-6 9.1% 40.1% 40.1% 13.1 0.0 0.6 2.2 0.8 0.0 5.5
11-7 5.3% 29.4% 29.4% 13.3 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.1 3.7
10-8 2.9% 25.0% 25.0% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 2.2
9-9 1.5% 19.0% 19.0% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.2
8-10 0.7% 16.5% 16.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.6
7-11 0.3% 11.2% 11.2% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.3
6-12 0.1% 5.4% 5.4% 15.5 0.0 0.0 0.1
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14 0.0% 0.0
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 53.7% 53.6% 0.0% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 7.4 24.5 16.9 3.2 0.3 0.0 46.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.2% 100.0% 10.2 0.2 0.5 2.7 4.0 4.5 12.2 15.8 52.9 7.0 0.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5% 1.8% 10.3 0.6 1.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4% 4.2% 10.8 0.8 3.3