Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.9#210
Expected Predictive Rating-2.2#198
Pace71.3#90
Improvement+3.1#63

Offense
Total Offense-5.8#320
First Shot-4.7#305
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#250
Layup/Dunks+0.9#142
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.1#36
3 Pt Jumpshots-10.3#362
Freethrows+1.5#87
Improvement-1.1#244

Defense
Total Defense+2.9#94
First Shot-0.3#190
After Offensive Rebounds+3.2#8
Layups/Dunks-1.4#234
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#65
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#51
Freethrows-3.6#357
Improvement+4.2#23
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 7.3% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 n/a
.500 or above 2.5% 7.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.5% 1.3% 0.0%
First Round2.3% 6.7% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 35 - 75 - 11
Quad 48 - 513 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 118   Middle Tennessee L 56-79 38%     0 - 1 -22.8 -17.7 -4.7
  Nov 16, 2024 201   Texas St. W 72-60 59%     1 - 1 +6.9 -5.3 +12.3
  Nov 20, 2024 137   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-84 25%     1 - 2 -1.8 +5.9 -7.5
  Nov 25, 2024 293   Southern Miss W 82-74 68%     2 - 2 +0.4 +12.2 -11.4
  Nov 26, 2024 175   @ Montana St. L 59-85 32%     2 - 3 -24.1 -7.8 -18.5
  Nov 30, 2024 149   @ Nebraska Omaha W 71-55 27%     3 - 3 +19.5 +1.1 +19.3
  Dec 04, 2024 125   @ New Mexico St. W 78-70 23%     4 - 3 +12.9 +15.5 -2.2
  Dec 09, 2024 27   @ Baylor L 57-88 4%     4 - 4 -13.5 -5.2 -10.3
  Dec 18, 2024 335   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 67-68 71%     4 - 5 -9.6 -9.8 +0.2
  Dec 21, 2024 279   Texas Southern W 69-65 73%     5 - 5 -5.4 -10.7 +4.9
  Dec 28, 2024 22   @ Texas A&M L 54-92 3%     5 - 6 -18.9 -7.0 -12.3
  Dec 31, 2024 282   Stephen F. Austin L 57-62 74%     5 - 7 -14.7 -19.9 +5.6
  Jan 04, 2025 115   @ Utah Valley L 53-64 20%     5 - 8 0 - 1 -5.0 -16.7 +12.1
  Jan 11, 2025 147   @ Seattle L 64-66 27%     5 - 9 0 - 2 +1.6 +0.6 +0.9
  Jan 16, 2025 94   @ Grand Canyon L 58-88 15%     5 - 10 0 - 3 -21.9 -10.0 -10.9
  Jan 18, 2025 162   California Baptist L 54-60 50%     5 - 11 0 - 4 -8.9 -16.4 +7.2
  Jan 23, 2025 275   Tarleton St. W 67-56 73%     6 - 11 1 - 4 +1.9 -6.3 +8.0
  Jan 25, 2025 216   Texas Arlington L 76-79 OT 61%     6 - 12 1 - 5 -8.8 -2.3 -6.4
  Jan 30, 2025 162   @ California Baptist L 60-83 30%     6 - 13 1 - 6 -20.4 -6.6 -15.3
  Feb 06, 2025 290   @ Utah Tech W 86-72 57%     7 - 13 2 - 6 +9.3 +6.6 +2.1
  Feb 08, 2025 304   @ Southern Utah W 84-70 60%     8 - 13 3 - 6 +8.5 +6.9 +1.0
  Feb 13, 2025 147   Seattle W 75-59 46%     9 - 13 4 - 6 +14.1 +1.6 +12.1
  Feb 20, 2025 304   Southern Utah W 75-59 78%     10 - 13 5 - 6 +5.0 -2.7 +7.4
  Feb 22, 2025 290   Utah Tech W 80-71 76%     11 - 13 6 - 6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.7
  Feb 27, 2025 275   @ Tarleton St. L 52-67 53%     11 - 14 6 - 7 -18.6 -16.2 -2.7
  Mar 01, 2025 216   @ Texas Arlington W 70-59 40%     12 - 14 7 - 7 +10.7 -3.2 +14.1
  Mar 06, 2025 115   Utah Valley L 60-73 37%     12 - 15 7 - 8 -12.5 -13.7 +1.9
  Mar 08, 2025 94   Grand Canyon W 82-81 OT 30%     13 - 15 8 - 8 +3.6 -0.1 +3.5
  Mar 13, 2025 147   Seattle L 64-68 36%    
Projected Record 13 - 16 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 100.0 100.0 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
Total 100.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0
15-1
14-2
13-3
12-4
11-5
10-6
9-7
8-8 100.0% 2.5% 2.5% 15.7 0.8 1.7 97.5
7-9
6-10
5-11
4-12
3-13
2-14
1-15
0-16
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 15.7 0.8 1.7 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.5% 100.0% 15.7 33.3 66.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 7.0%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 25.1%
Lose Out 65.4%