Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.2 #258
Expected Predictive Rating -2.5 #211
Pace 66.5 #245
Improvement -0.3 #203

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #291 D C- F B- D+
Defense #203 F C A- F D-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #110 1.03 #317 -1.1 #222
2 Pt. Jumpers 27% #61 0.76 #169 +2.6 #60
Three Pointers 32% #341 1.00 #203 -4.9 #325
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #278 -3.4 #277
Freethrows 19.7 #69 71% #230 14.1 #98
Second Chance 33.6% #99 0.89 #344 0.30 #216
Turnovers 19.7% #341
Total Offense -4.3 #291

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #21 1.23 #274 -6.0 #350
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #285 0.74 #138 +1.5 #82
Three Pointers 37% #286 1.21 #361 -1.6 #255
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #343 -6.1 #343
Freethrows 25.0 #364 74% #258 18.5 #364
Second Chance 28.5% #97 1.11 #269 0.32 #173
Turnovers 19.8% #32
Total Defense -0.9 #203

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #272 1.9% #338
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.5% #263 9.8% #335
Possession Length 18.6 #304 16.9 #108
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #202 0.23 #342
Improvement +0.9 #131 -1.2 #263

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.3% 3.5% 1.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.3 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 10.5% 21.6% 6.2%
.500 or above in Conference 13.8% 27.8% 8.5%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.8% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 40.7% 20.8% 48.3%
First Four0.7% 0.3% 0.8%
First Round1.9% 3.3% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Tarleton St. (Away) - 27.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 34 - 64 - 12
Quad 48 - 512 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Thu, Nov 6 261 Nebraska Omaha W 73 - 71 63% +4  1 - 0 -7 -4 C- C F -3 F A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 105 @Stephen F. Austin L 66 - 76 12% -1  1 - 1 -3 +2 D D+ C -5 F A- D
 Tue, Nov 18 263 @Texas St. L 49 - 63 40% -11  1 - 2 -17 -18 F B F -0 F A- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 345 Texas San Antonio W 61 - 50 74% +7  2 - 2 -1 -9 F B F +9 B+ C- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 138 William & Mary L 58 - 92 26% -12  2 - 3 -33 -17 F F F -14 F D+ B-
 Tue, Dec 2 279 @Pepperdine W 71 - 63 44% +8  3 - 3 +4 +8 B- C A -3 D- A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 6 133 New Mexico St. W 77 - 69 35% +5  4 - 3 +7 +10 A+ B- F -3 C- A- A+
 Tue, Dec 16 2 @Arizona L 62 - 96 1% -21  4 - 4 -8 -1 C- C F -5 F D- A+
 Fri, Dec 19 12 @BYU L 67 - 85 1% -5  4 - 5 +4 +3 C- A- F +2 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 335 @Texas Southern W 75 - 68 61% -2  5 - 5 -1 -1 D- D- F -0 F C+ B+
 Thu, Jan 1 233 Utah Tech L 64 - 79 57% -14  5 - 6 0 - 1 -22 -8 C F F -15 F C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 107 Utah Valley W 85 - 68 27% +5  6 - 6 1 - 1 +18 +14 A+ D A+ +4 D+ B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 189 @Tarleton St. W 84 - 80 27% +7  7 - 6 2 - 1 +5 +9 C A+ F -4 A+ F B-
 Sat, Jan 10 156 @Texas Arlington L 72 - 82 21% -6  7 - 7 2 - 2 -7 +9 A+ B C- -16 F F D+
 Thu, Jan 15 142 California Baptist L 58 - 74 38% -13  7 - 8 2 - 3 -18 -9 D- F A- -10 F B+ C-
 Sat, Jan 17 284 @Southern Utah L 52 - 74 45% -11  7 - 9 2 - 4 -26 -22 F F F -4 F C- A
 Mon, Jan 26 189 @Tarleton St. L 71 - 77 28%
 Thu, Jan 29 233 Utah Tech W 71 - 69 57%
 Sat, Jan 31 284 Southern Utah W 74 - 69 67%
 Thu, Feb 5 107 @Utah Valley L 66 - 78 12%
 Sat, Feb 7 142 @California Baptist L 63 - 72 19%
 Thu, Feb 12 156 Texas Arlington L 65 - 67 41%
 Sat, Feb 14 189 Tarleton St. L 74 - 75 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 284 Southern Utah W 74 - 69 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 233 @Utah Tech L 68 - 72 35%
 Sat, Feb 28 107 @Utah Valley L 66 - 78 12%
 Thu, Mar 5 142 @California Baptist L 63 - 72 21%
 Sat, Mar 7 156 Texas Arlington L 65 - 67 42%
Totals 11 - 17 6 - 12 -5 -4 D C- F -1 F C A-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.8 0.2 2.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.4 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.8 3rd
4th 0.2 2.9 7.9 4.3 0.6 0.0 15.8 4th
5th 0.3 4.8 11.1 5.5 0.4 22.0 5th
6th 0.9 7.0 12.7 5.5 0.5 26.5 6th
7th 0.7 3.5 8.6 9.6 3.6 0.4 26.3 7th
Total 0.7 3.5 9.5 16.8 21.1 19.8 14.7 8.2 4.0 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 100.0% 0.0    0.0
13-5 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 38.5% 0.1    0.1 0.1
11-7 13.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
10-8 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.0% 0.0
13-5 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.3% 15.4% 15.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
11-7 1.4% 16.5% 16.5% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
10-8 4.0% 9.7% 9.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 3.6
9-9 8.2% 4.9% 4.9% 15.1 0.0 0.3 0.1 7.8
8-10 14.7% 3.4% 3.4% 15.6 0.2 0.3 14.2
7-11 19.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.3 19.4
6-12 21.1% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.2 21.0
5-13 16.8% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.2 16.7
4-14 9.5% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 9.5
3-15 3.5% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.5
2-16 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 15.3 97.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%