Abilene Christian
Western Athletic
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#207
Expected Predictive Rating-2.0#197
Pace69.3#167
Improvement+0.0#178

Offense
Total Offense-1.7#223
First Shot+1.3#138
After Offensive Rebound-3.0#332
Layup/Dunks+2.5#98
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#37
3 Pt Jumpshots-7.3#355
Freethrows+3.2#36
Improvement-0.1#177

Defense
Total Defense-0.4#181
First Shot-2.7#269
After Offensive Rebounds+2.3#40
Layups/Dunks-1.0#209
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#84
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#110
Freethrows-4.6#360
Improvement+0.1#175
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.1% 6.5% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.3 14.8
.500 or above 39.5% 44.2% 20.5%
.500 or above in Conference 52.1% 54.5% 42.5%
Conference Champion 6.5% 7.1% 3.9%
Last Place in Conference 10.1% 9.1% 14.1%
First Four0.3% 0.3% 0.6%
First Round6.0% 6.4% 4.1%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Southern (Home) - 80.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 34 - 75 - 11
Quad 49 - 514 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2024 131   Middle Tennessee L 56-79 47%     0 - 1 -24.3 -17.8 -6.1
  Nov 16, 2024 139   Texas St. W 72-60 49%     1 - 1 +10.1 -1.6 +11.9
  Nov 20, 2024 162   @ Kennesaw St. L 78-84 32%     1 - 2 -3.3 +3.0 -6.1
  Nov 25, 2024 283   Southern Miss W 82-74 67%     2 - 2 +1.3 +11.9 -10.2
  Nov 26, 2024 141   @ Montana St. L 59-85 28%     2 - 3 -22.1 -7.9 -16.4
  Nov 30, 2024 298   @ Nebraska Omaha W 71-55 58%     3 - 3 +11.8 -0.1 +12.8
  Dec 04, 2024 201   @ New Mexico St. W 78-70 37%     4 - 3 +9.2 +11.3 -1.6
  Dec 09, 2024 12   @ Baylor L 57-88 3%     4 - 4 -11.9 -6.0 -7.9
  Dec 18, 2024 353   @ Texas A&M - Commerce L 67-68 76%     4 - 5 -10.6 -10.6 +0.0
  Dec 21, 2024 306   Texas Southern W 77-68 80%    
  Dec 28, 2024 25   @ Texas A&M L 60-79 4%    
  Dec 31, 2024 217   Stephen F. Austin W 66-63 63%    
  Jan 04, 2025 148   @ Utah Valley L 68-74 31%    
  Jan 11, 2025 170   @ Seattle L 70-74 33%    
  Jan 16, 2025 102   @ Grand Canyon L 70-80 17%    
  Jan 18, 2025 176   California Baptist W 72-70 56%    
  Jan 23, 2025 286   Tarleton St. W 72-64 76%    
  Jan 25, 2025 145   Texas Arlington W 78-77 51%    
  Jan 30, 2025 176   @ California Baptist L 69-73 35%    
  Feb 06, 2025 287   @ Utah Tech W 74-72 56%    
  Feb 08, 2025 218   @ Southern Utah L 73-76 41%    
  Feb 13, 2025 170   Seattle W 73-71 55%    
  Feb 20, 2025 218   Southern Utah W 76-73 63%    
  Feb 22, 2025 287   Utah Tech W 77-69 76%    
  Feb 27, 2025 286   @ Tarleton St. W 69-67 56%    
  Mar 01, 2025 145   @ Texas Arlington L 74-80 31%    
  Mar 06, 2025 148   Utah Valley W 71-70 52%    
  Mar 08, 2025 102   Grand Canyon L 73-77 35%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Western Athletic Finish

0-16 1-15 2-14 3-13 4-12 5-11 6-10 7-9 8-8 9-7 10-6 11-5 12-4 13-3 14-2 15-1 16-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.2 0.0 6.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 3.9 4.0 1.7 0.3 0.0 10.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 5.3 4.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 12.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 5.6 5.8 1.2 0.0 13.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.9 5.4 6.7 1.3 0.0 14.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 5.1 6.6 1.5 0.0 14.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.0 4.4 5.7 1.7 0.1 12.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.1 3.3 3.6 1.2 0.1 9.5 8th
9th 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.8 1.6 0.6 0.0 5.6 9th
Total 0.1 0.4 1.3 3.0 6.0 9.5 13.0 14.7 15.1 13.3 10.4 6.9 4.0 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Western Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
16-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2
14-2 96.5% 0.7    0.6 0.1
13-3 84.3% 1.4    1.0 0.4 0.0
12-4 54.7% 2.2    1.1 0.9 0.2 0.0
11-5 24.0% 1.6    0.3 0.8 0.5 0.1
10-6 3.9% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
9-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
8-8 0.0%
Total 6.5% 6.5 3.3 2.1 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
16-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-1 0.2% 42.9% 42.9% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-2 0.7% 32.5% 32.5% 13.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
13-3 1.6% 33.0% 33.0% 13.5 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.1
12-4 4.0% 25.1% 25.1% 13.8 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 3.0
11-5 6.9% 17.2% 17.2% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 5.7
10-6 10.4% 10.9% 10.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 9.3
9-7 13.3% 6.3% 6.3% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 12.4
8-8 15.1% 3.4% 3.4% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 14.5
7-9 14.7% 2.2% 2.2% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 14.4
6-10 13.0% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 12.8
5-11 9.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 9.4
4-12 6.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.0
3-13 3.0% 3.0
2-14 1.3% 1.3
1-15 0.4% 0.4
0-16 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.0 2.1 0.7 93.9 0.0%