Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.2#255
Expected Predictive Rating-4.5#241
Pace65.5#284
Improvement-0.1#188

Offense
Total Offense-4.2#286
First Shot-3.3#272
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#238
Layup/Dunks+4.5#42
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#43
3 Pt Jumpshots-11.0#364
Freethrows+0.3#152
Improvement+0.3#155

Defense
Total Defense-1.0#203
First Shot-2.6#259
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#71
Layups/Dunks-2.1#258
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#77
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#223
Freethrows-0.9#250
Improvement-0.4#210
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.6% 3.8% 1.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.1
.500 or above 38.4% 61.7% 33.3%
.500 or above in Conference 45.4% 70.0% 40.0%
Conference Champion 1.5% 4.6% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 2.5% 0.8% 2.9%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
First Round1.6% 3.7% 1.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Troy (Away) - 17.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 20 - 2
Quad 32 - 82 - 10
Quad 411 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 117 @Bowling Green L 48-83 14%     0 - 1 -28.8 -19.5 -9.1
  Sat, Nov 8 194 @Tulane L 71-79 28%     0 - 2 -7.2 +0.8 -8.4
  Wed, Nov 12 287 Texas San Antonio W 80-69 67%     1 - 2 +1.3 +4.3 -3.0
  Sat, Nov 15 327 Texas Southern W 77-67 77%     2 - 2 -2.9 -2.4 -0.6
  Tue, Nov 18 204 Abilene Christian W 63-49 52%     3 - 2 +8.2 -3.6 +13.3
  Fri, Nov 21 309 Arkansas Little Rock W 65-56 73%     4 - 2 -2.5 -7.2 +5.5
  Fri, Nov 28 112 Seattle L 52-66 20%     4 - 3 -10.5 -8.8 -3.8
  Sat, Nov 29 315 Lehigh L 74-78 OT 64%     4 - 4 -13.0 -2.8 -10.1
  Wed, Dec 3 231 @Rice L 72-77 35%     4 - 5 -6.4 +0.7 -7.2
  Wed, Dec 10 222 Southern W 86-83 56%     5 - 5 -3.8 +0.7 -4.9
  Wed, Dec 17 136 Arkansas St. L 70-89 35%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -20.3 -7.3 -12.4
  Sat, Dec 20 190 South Alabama W 67-65 49%     6 - 6 1 - 1 -2.9 -2.8 +0.0
  Wed, Dec 31 139 @Troy L 64-74 18%    
  Sat, Jan 3 359 @Louisiana Monroe W 76-69 74%    
  Thu, Jan 8 207 @Southern Miss L 68-73 32%    
  Sat, Jan 10 136 @Arkansas St. L 71-81 18%    
  Wed, Jan 14 314 Louisiana W 66-59 74%    
  Sat, Jan 17 207 Southern Miss W 71-70 53%    
  Thu, Jan 22 230 @Coastal Carolina L 67-71 35%    
  Sat, Jan 24 198 @James Madison L 67-73 30%    
  Wed, Jan 28 161 Marshall L 70-72 43%    
  Sat, Jan 31 217 Old Dominion W 71-70 55%    
  Wed, Feb 4 213 @Georgia Southern L 73-78 33%    
  Wed, Feb 11 139 Troy L 67-71 37%    
  Sat, Feb 14 359 Louisiana Monroe W 79-66 87%    
  Thu, Feb 19 190 @South Alabama L 64-70 28%    
  Sat, Feb 21 314 @Louisiana W 63-62 53%    
  Fri, Feb 27 228 Appalachian St. W 64-62 57%    
Projected Record 13 - 15 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 3.1 2nd
3rd 0.2 1.9 2.0 0.6 0.0 0.0 4.7 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 3.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 6.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 4.3 2.4 0.2 7.6 5th
6th 0.2 3.6 4.6 0.6 9.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.7 5.9 1.7 0.1 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.7 5.4 4.3 0.2 10.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 3.6 6.3 1.1 0.0 11.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.2 2.4 0.1 11.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 1.5 5.0 3.7 0.3 10.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 1.3 3.6 3.1 0.6 0.0 8.7 12th
13th 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.7 0.5 0.0 4.7 13th
14th 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 14th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.3 7.0 11.3 15.0 16.4 15.7 12.4 8.9 4.8 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 94.4% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 85.3% 0.2    0.2 0.1 0.0
14-4 55.3% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.1
13-5 22.6% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.3% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.5% 1.5 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0
16-2 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15-3 0.3% 25.3% 25.3% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
14-4 0.9% 16.7% 16.7% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-5 2.3% 12.9% 12.9% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.0
12-6 4.8% 7.9% 7.9% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.4
11-7 8.9% 3.7% 3.7% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 8.5
10-8 12.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 12.2
9-9 15.7% 0.5% 0.5% 15.7 0.0 0.1 15.7
8-10 16.4% 0.4% 0.4% 15.8 0.0 0.0 16.3
7-11 15.0% 0.2% 0.2% 15.9 0.0 0.0 14.9
6-12 11.3% 11.3
5-13 7.0% 7.0
4-14 3.3% 3.3
3-15 1.3% 1.3
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 0.4 98.4 0.0%