Texas St.
Sun Belt
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -4.1 234
Expected Predictive Rating -3.0 213
Pace 66.8 237
Improvement +6.2 12

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense D+ #282 D+ D+ D C- D+
Defense C #167 D+ B- C+ D+ D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% 28 55% 239 +2.7 89
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% 23 39% 147 +4.0 29
Three Pointers 24% 365 29% 348 -10.4 365
1st FG Attempt 0.95 291 -3.6 294
Second Chance 31.7% 148 0.88 337 0.28 253
Turnovers 19.2% 312
Freethrows 0.28 268 77% 43 0.21 205
Total Offense -4.1 282

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% 73 60% 230 -3.3 293
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% 291 35% 65 +2.0 40
Three Pointers 40% 198 37% 313 -1.5 254
1st FG Attempt 1.07 272 -2.8 274
Second Chance 29.0% 113 0.96 83 0.28 82
Turnovers 18.2% 104
Freethrows 0.33 280 73% 210 0.24 267
Total Defense +0.1 167

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Selection -0.8 289 +0.8 308
Shot Type Accuracy -2.8 278 +1.9 252
Possession Length 17.6 204 17.2 166
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 104 0.17 178
Improvement +2.9 #52 +3.3 #28

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% 0% 0%
#1 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 2 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 4 Seed 0% 0% 0%
Top 6 Seed 0% 0% 0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3% 3% 1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% 0% 0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.1 15.4
.500 or above 98% 100% 81%
.500 or above in Conference 98% 100% 78%
Conference Champion 1% 1% 0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0%
First Four0% 0% 0%
First Round2% 3% 1%
Second Round0% 0% 0%
Sweet Sixteen0% 0% 0%
Elite Eight0% 0% 0%
Final Four0% 0% 0%
Championship Game0% 0% 0%
National Champion0% 0% 0%

Next Game: Louisiana Monroe (Home) - 90.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 10 - 1
Quad 33 - 93 - 10
Quad 414 - 417 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 158 @Bowling Green L 48 - 83 26% -13  0% 0 - 1 F -32 F -24 F F F D- -8 F B+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 174 @Tulane L 71 - 79 28% +6  77% 0 - 2 D+ -6 C +0 D+ B B- D -7 F+ A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 12 350 Texas San Antonio W 80 - 69 86% +10  97% 1 - 2 C- -5 D+ -3 F A- B+ C -1 B- C- D
 Sat, Nov 15 309 Texas Southern W 77 - 67 77% +12  97% 2 - 2 C- -2 D -5 D+ A+ F B- +3 D+ B+ A
 Tue, Nov 18 260 Abilene Christian W 63 - 49 67% +11  96% 3 - 2 B- +5 D- -8 D F+ F A+ +14 A+ D A
 Fri, Nov 21 301 Arkansas Little Rock W 65 - 56 75% +5  88% 4 - 2 C- -2 F -10 C F F A- +9 B+ B+ A-
 Fri, Nov 28 132 Seattle L 52 - 66 29% -5  9% 4 - 3 D- -12 F+ -9 C- F D D -6 F A- D
 Sat, Nov 29 306 Lehigh L 74 - 78 OT 66% +1  50% 4 - 4 D- -12 D -5 D C- F+ D -7 F A+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 220 @Rice L 72 - 77 35% -2  23% 4 - 5 D+ -5 D+ -3 C- F C C- -2 B F B-
 Wed, Dec 10 264 Southern W 86 - 83 68% -2  27% 5 - 5 D+ -6 D+ -3 A- F F C- -3 F C A+
 Wed, Dec 17 141 Arkansas St. L 70 - 89 41% -8  4% 5 - 6 0 - 1 F -21 F+ -9 F C C F -11 F F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 191 South Alabama W 67 - 65 54% -6  4% 6 - 6 1 - 1 C- -3 D -4 F A- C- C+ +1 C B B+
 Wed, Dec 31 135 @Troy L 80 - 100 20% -8  12% 6 - 7 1 - 2 F+ -15 B+ +9 C A+ D+ F -25 F F F
 Sat, Jan 3 356 @Louisiana Monroe W 84 - 79 77% +3  80% 7 - 7 2 - 2 D+ -7 C- -1 F+ A D+ D -6 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 8 241 @Southern Miss L 70 - 80 OT 40% +0  50% 7 - 8 2 - 3 D- -12 F -11 F C- D+ C +0 D B C+
 Sat, Jan 10 141 @Arkansas St. L 82 - 83 22% -5  0% 7 - 9 2 - 4 C+ +3 C +0 C- A+ F B- +3 B A- B
 Wed, Jan 14 290 Louisiana W 59 - 54 73% +5  83% 8 - 9 3 - 4 D+ -5 F -11 B F F+ B+ +7 B B- C-
 Sat, Jan 17 241 Southern Miss W 74 - 67 63% +3  70% 9 - 9 4 - 4 C -1 D -5 C- D- F B +4 C+ A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 238 @Coastal Carolina L 70 - 72 40% -3  30% 9 - 10 4 - 5 C- -3 D+ -3 F D+ A+ C -1 C B D
 Sat, Jan 24 222 @James Madison L 57 - 82 35% -17  2% 9 - 11 4 - 6 F -25 F -14 F F B- F -14 F D C
 Wed, Jan 28 164 Marshall W 72 - 68 47% +4  72% 10 - 11 5 - 6 C +1 D -5 C- B+ D+ B +6 B- A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 253 Old Dominion W 81 - 64 65% +12  99% 11 - 11 6 - 6 B +9 C+ +3 C+ D B+ B+ +6 A- C A-
 Wed, Feb 4 274 @Georgia Southern W 77 - 71 47% +3  52% 12 - 11 7 - 6 C+ +3 C- -1 F A+ C B- +4 D A C-
 Sat, Feb 7 295 Western Michigan W 77 - 61 74% +5  78% 13 - 11 B- +5 C +1 B D- D B +6 C+ C B+
 Wed, Feb 11 135 Troy W 74 - 62 39% +9  98% 14 - 11 8 - 6 B +11 B- +5 A D+ F B+ +7 A- B+ A+
 Sat, Feb 14 356 Louisiana Monroe W 81 - 67 90%
 Thu, Feb 19 191 @South Alabama L 64 - 69 31%
 Sat, Feb 21 290 @Louisiana W 65 - 64 52%
 Fri, Feb 27 161 Appalachian St. L 64 - 65 47%
Totals 16 - 13 10 - 8 -4 D+ -4 D+ D+ D C +0 D+ B- C+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings D+ C- C F+ D+ 45% 31% 24% D+ D+ C+ D- D+ D D+ B C- C C- B D D+ 43% 17% 40% D D+ C+ B- B- C+ D+ C D+
1.03 55% 39% 29% -3 -1 0.95 32% 0.9 .28 19% .28 77% .21 1.09 60% 35% 37% +2 +1 1.07 29% 1.0 .28 18% .33 73% .20
Nov
3		 Bowling Green F D- C+ F F 47% 20% 33% C F F D+ F F F F F D- F A- F F 47% 14% 39% C- F B- A+ B+ C B- B+ B
0.68 50% 40% 18% -11 +1 0.80 14% 1.0 .14 26% .13 43% .06 1.18 71% 29% 50% +14 +2 1.33 25% 0.6 .14 17% .27 69% .19
Nov
8		 Tulane C F D A+ D+ 46% 25% 29% C D+ C- A+ B B- F A+ D+ D C- A+ F D- 41% 14% 45% D- F+ B- A+ A+ B- F F F
1.06 45% 33% 43% -3 0 0.96 32% 1.3 .41 16% .23 85% .20 1.18 61% 0% 45% +4 +1 1.11 19% 0.0 .00 16% .54 100% .54
Nov
12		 Texas San Antonio D+ C+ F+ F F 43% 25% 32% D+ F B+ B- A- B+ A+ B+ A+ C B B- A+ B+ 48% 12% 40% F B- B F C- D F D+ F
1.14 61% 31% 12% -11 0 0.79 44% 1.2 .51 13% .42 77% .33 0.98 48% 33% 24% -11 +2 0.83 26% 1.1 .28 16% .37 73% .27
Nov
15		 Texas Southern D C+ C- D C- 43% 22% 35% D+ D+ C- A+ A+ F A+ B A+ B- C F+ A- D+ 47% 29% 24% C- D+ D+ A+ B+ A F A F
1.08 63% 38% 31% 0 0 1.03 32% 1.9 .60 24% .59 75% .44 0.94 57% 46% 27% 0 0 1.00 29% 0.7 .21 23% .53 62% .33
Nov
18		 Abilene Christian D- F D- A+ D 56% 26% 18% C- D A+ F F+ F B+ C B A+ A+ F A+ A+ 57% 14% 29% F A+ F C D A F A+ C+
1.00 45% 30% 71% +1 +1 1.05 41% 0.5 .21 30% .50 73% .36 0.77 21% 50% 25% -23 +2 0.60 40% 0.9 .35 25% .40 53% .21
Nov
21		 Arkansas Little Rock F A C- C+ C+ 51% 24% 24% D+ C B- F F F B+ F C- A- A+ A- C A+ 56% 18% 27% F B+ C- A+ B+ A- F C F
1.01 74% 36% 36% +9 0 1.20 39% 0.2 .07 26% .34 56% .19 0.87 44% 25% 33% -10 +2 0.84 32% 0.7 .21 23% .36 67% .24
Nov
28		 Seattle F+ B- C F C+ 40% 42% 19% F C- B+ F F D F B F D F A+ C+ F 55% 11% 34% F F A A A- D D A+ C+
0.85 58% 40% 22% -2 -3 0.92 37% 0.2 .06 23% .17 75% .13 1.08 79% 0% 33% +7 +2 1.20 18% 0.6 .11 15% .33 59% .19
Nov
29		 Lehigh D D- B C- C 33% 54% 13% F D A F C- F+ A B+ A+ D B- D- F F 40% 17% 43% F+ F C- A+ A+ C A- A+ A
1.05 50% 46% 33% +2 -5 0.96 44% 0.8 .33 20% .41 78% .32 1.11 52% 44% 57% +14 +1 1.30 23% 0.3 .06 18% .21 58% .12
Dec
3		 Rice D+ B C B- C 35% 44% 21% F+ C- B F F C C C C C- F B- A+ B 23% 27% 50% C B D+ F F B- F F F
1.06 67% 35% 36% +2 -3 1.00 38% 0.5 .18 16% .33 74% .25 1.13 80% 33% 23% -5 -2 0.89 39% 1.3 .50 19% .53 76% .40
Dec
10		 Southern D+ B- B A+ B+ 53% 15% 32% A A- C- F F F A+ C- A+ C- D- C F F 26% 31% 43% B+ F C+ C C A+ C+ C C+
1.08 64% 43% 47% +10 +2 1.26 31% 0.4 .14 24% .51 74% .38 1.05 64% 35% 43% +7 -2 1.11 30% 1.0 .30 24% .31 68% .22
Dec
17		 Arkansas St. F+ F C- F F 53% 28% 19% C+ F C- B- C C D A+ C+ F D- A+ F F 46% 13% 41% D F F+ F F A+ D- C D-
0.97 47% 38% 27% -8 0 0.86 24% 1.1 .27 15% .29 83% .24 1.23 67% 0% 53% +11 +1 1.26 44% 1.8 .80 26% .37 75% .28
Dec
20		 South Alabama D D- B F F 38% 16% 47% C F A+ D A- C- A+ A+ A+ C+ C F A+ B- 56% 13% 31% F C B C B B+ F C+ D-
1.02 53% 43% 19% -12 +1 0.80 46% 1.0 .46 18% .41 91% .37 0.99 56% 50% 20% -6 +2 0.94 19% 1.2 .23 17% .40 64% .26
Dec
31		 Troy B+ D+ C A C+ 40% 27% 33% C- C A A- A+ D+ D+ F+ D F F+ A+ F F 65% 7% 28% F F F F F F F A+ F
1.18 52% 43% 41% +3 -1 1.06 41% 1.2 .50 19% .25 64% .16 1.47 67% 0% 69% +18 +4 1.46 45% 1.3 .59 12% .53 63% .33
Jan
3		 Louisiana Monroe C- D+ B- F F+ 49% 31% 20% D- F+ B+ B A D+ D- D D- D F A+ F F 37% 19% 44% C- F A+ A+ A+ B- B B B
1.15 59% 44% 25% 0 0 1.00 43% 1.3 .54 18% .20 67% .13 1.08 68% 20% 52% +12 0 1.27 14% 0.5 .07 19% .27 69% .19
Jan
8		 Southern Miss F F+ B- F F 38% 21% 41% C- F C- C- C- D+ C+ F+ C- C F A- C D- 41% 36% 23% C D B+ C+ B C+ D+ C D+
0.91 48% 42% 26% -8 0 0.86 27% 1.0 .27 18% .35 64% .22 1.04 70% 30% 31% +1 -2 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 19% .39 75% .29
Jan
10		 Arkansas St. C A+ D- F C 44% 35% 20% D C- C- A+ A+ F D+ A+ B- B- D- A+ A+ B+ 43% 13% 44% D+ B F+ A+ A- B F D F
1.06 75% 32% 18% 0 -1 1.00 25% 1.9 .47 21% .31 84% .26 1.07 65% 14% 25% -6 +1 0.93 44% 0.6 .28 22% .53 78% .41
Jan
14		 Louisiana F B- A+ A B+ 60% 23% 16% C+ B D F F F+ F F F B+ A A+ F A- 37% 23% 40% F B A+ F B- C- F C+ F
0.97 62% 50% 43% +7 +1 1.19 27% 0.3 .08 21% .21 60% .13 0.89 44% 10% 41% -7 0 0.86 16% 1.2 .19 16% .37 68% .26
Jan
17		 Southern Miss D F+ A A C- 49% 21% 31% C+ C- D F+ D- F A+ A+ A+ B B F A+ C+ 38% 34% 28% C C+ A+ C+ A+ B- D- F F
1.03 47% 50% 42% +1 +1 1.05 24% 0.8 .20 25% .65 80% .52 0.94 53% 47% 21% -4 -2 0.90 16% 1.0 .16 20% .42 83% .35
Jan
22		 Coastal Carolina D+ F A- F F 34% 45% 21% F+ F C F D+ A+ B- A+ A+ C F F+ A+ C 24% 27% 49% C+ C B+ B B D F D F
1.02 42% 48% 8% -9 -3 0.77 29% 0.8 .24 6% .33 90% .30 1.05 67% 46% 25% -2 -2 0.94 21% 0.9 .18 13% .49 76% .37
Jan
24		 James Madison F C F F F 45% 28% 28% D+ F D+ F F B- C+ C- C+ F D+ F F F 26% 12% 62% C+ F F B- D C A D+ A-
0.90 57% 15% 23% -11 0 0.79 28% 0.6 .18 11% .37 71% .27 1.30 62% 50% 45% +13 0 1.28 37% 1.0 .37 17% .21 73% .15
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
28		 Marshall D D- F A+ D+ 48% 24% 28% B C- D+ A+ B+ D+ C- D+ C- B D- C+ A+ B 40% 25% 35% D B- A+ B A+ F B+ A+ A
1.05 50% 25% 43% -3 0 0.96 31% 1.3 .39 19% .34 68% .23 0.99 70% 36% 25% -1 0 1.00 17% 1.0 .17 10% .19 58% .11
Jan
31		 Old Dominion C+ C C- A+ B 39% 33% 27% F C+ C+ F D B+ B+ B+ A B+ C- A+ A+ A 41% 14% 45% F A- F A+ C A- F F F
1.17 60% 35% 43% +4 -2 1.06 32% 0.7 .24 12% .41 80% .33 0.93 60% 14% 23% -10 +1 0.84 33% 0.8 .27 20% .40 82% .33
Feb
4		 Georgia Southern C- F+ D- F F 57% 18% 24% B- F B- A+ A+ C B- A+ A+ B- C+ F B- D- 39% 14% 47% C+ D A+ D A C- D+ C- D+
1.11 50% 33% 25% -9 +2 0.88 39% 1.4 .55 19% .39 91% .35 1.02 53% 71% 30% 0 +1 1.04 16% 1.2 .19 14% .37 73% .27
Feb
7		 Western Michigan C B+ A- A A 36% 32% 32% F B D F+ D- D F A+ D- B A+ D- D B- 40% 22% 38% C- C+ C C C B+ A+ F A+
1.21 68% 47% 41% +10 -2 1.19 27% 1.0 .27 16% .19 90% .17 0.96 40% 45% 37% -4 0 0.94 31% 1.0 .31 20% .12 83% .10
Feb
11		 Troy B- A A+ F A+ 37% 44% 19% F A D+ C- D+ F A A+ A+ B+ B A B- B+ 26% 18% 56% A+ A- D+ A+ B+ A+ F D F
1.16 69% 63% 25% +13 -3 1.21 29% 1.0 .29 22% .38 84% .32 0.97 50% 29% 32% -5 -1 0.90 35% 0.7 .26 24% .53 77% .41



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Sun Belt Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.1 1.1 1st
2nd 1.1 3.8 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.2 7.7 2.5 10.5 3rd
4th 3.6 13.8 0.3 17.7 4th
5th 0.5 16.4 6.5 23.3 5th
6th 0.0 5.9 16.0 0.7 22.6 6th
7th 0.4 10.2 3.5 0.0 14.1 7th
8th 0.8 3.7 0.1 4.7 8th
9th 0.7 0.3 1.0 9th
10th 0.3 0.3 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
Total 2.2 20.6 39.8 29.8 7.6 Total



Sun Belt Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 14.2% 1.1    0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 7.6% 9.0% 9.0% 14.6 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 6.9
11-7 29.8% 4.3% 4.3% 15.2 0.1 0.9 0.4 28.6
10-8 39.8% 1.1% 1.1% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 39.4
9-9 20.6% 0.5% 0.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 20.5
8-10 2.2% 2.2
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 15.1 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 14.6 4.4 39.7 51.5 4.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 1.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 3.2%
Lose Out 1.4%